Modern Horizon 3 Limited Metagame Forecast

Introduction

Hello! Always positive, I'm Yamabe Kafka!

I am a college student VTuber streaming MTG Limited formats on YouTube.
Nice to meet you💕

Kafka Yamabe @MTGArena limited

I regularly write articles forecasting the Metagame before a new set release and review articles after the release.

So, let's get into the forecast for the new set: Modern Horizons 3 (hereafter, MH3).

By the way... my previous forecast for Outlaws of Thunder Junction (hereafter, OTJ) didn't hit much, except for individual card evaluations.
It's time to revenge!

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Understanding MH3 Limited Environment

The expected Limited archetypes for each two-color combination as envisioned by WotC development team can be found in Oliva's post linked below.

【モダンホライゾン3】
アーキタイプ
・白青：エネルギーフライヤー
・青黒：カードドロー
・黒赤：アーティファクト
・赤緑：エルドラージ落とし子
・緑白：改善と授与
・白黒：改善と死亡
・青赤：エネルギーミッドレンジ
・黒緑：改善と順応
・赤白：エネルギーアグロ
・緑青：エルドラージランプ pic.twitter.com/Hnunxh04ql

— 《青黒家の食卓》管理人、オリバ (@DimirUB) May 29, 2024

Regarding the unique mechanism of this set, the archetypes of each color, and understanding the overall environment, famous MTG streamer: Tantei-san has already summarized them in the video linked below (in Japanese).
Please make sure to watch it!

With that in mind, in this article, I would like to present my forecast based on the data which will be available on 17Lands.com.

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Precondition

I make a forecast based on the "Format Speed" data from 17Lands.com. This data shows the difference in win rates between game on play and game on draw, as well as the average number of turns until the end of a match in each set.

Here are the latest data for the current Standard expansions (+LTR). The silver symbol represents Premier Draft event data, and the red symbol represents Sealed event data.

From the next section, I will explain my forecast of this set. To quantify the analysis as much as possible, I have estimated the impact of each element on the average numbers of turns as numerical values. This approach will also facilitate analysis of gap between forecast and actual data.

As announced in the previous article, I will revise the reference value for average number of turns, considering the increased power level of common and uncommon cards. Specifically, based on the average of expansions released over the past two years (since Dominaria United), I have set the reference value to approximately 9.0 turns. This is about 0.3 turns faster than the previous assumption (9.3 turns).

※ The rest of this article is available for free if you repost the following post. Thank you in advance for your support.

This is my first challenge to write an English version of Limited article! I wanted to reach people all over the world who play Limited, so I would appreciate it if you could repost!

Modern Horizon 3 Limited Metagame Forecast | Yamabe Kafkahttps://t.co/9poOTe1LVB

— 山辺カフカ@MTGリミテッド (@yamabenokafka1) June 6, 2024

※日本語版はこちらから↓

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Forecast