日本人全員が貯金を頑張れば、経済は大不況に陥る件

老後2000万円問題などがあり、貯蓄しないとと焦る人もいるだろう。また、貯蓄から投資へを合言葉に、株式投資に励む人がいる。

しかし、個人や家計の選択肢としては正しいその行動も、経済全体（マクロ経済）としては不正解の行動になってしまう。これを、合成の誤謬と呼ぶ。

GDPというのは、基本的には需要と供給で決まる。需要と供給、どちらかがボトルネックになって国家国民の経済規模は決まるのだ。例えば、国民が節約して、企業も設備投資せずにお金を貯めるならば、需要がボトルネックになる。供給がボトルネックになるのは、労働者不足や生産設備が足りない場合だ。

そして、国民が老後不安で消費を減らせば、当然、需要不足になって経済は停滞する。株式投資だって、新株発行ではない場合は、個人投資家や機関投資家の間で売買されるだけで、企業の資金調達とは関係がない。もちろん、証券会社は儲かるが、それだけだ。

民間企業の設備投資が増えれば問題ない？いやいや、企業は、日本でつくって儲かるのを見越して、日本国内に設備投資する。日本人が消費を減らすならば、輸出向けの工場以外は設備投資のメリットがないだろう。

政府はあまり、貯蓄や資産形成を煽らないほうがいい。住宅ローンなどで一気にお金が動くほうが、経済成長はするのだ。もちろん、それが社会道徳的に良いかは別問題だが。新築住宅よりも中古住宅が流通するほうが、自然環境にはやさしいだろう。

The Paradox of Saving: Why Frugality Can Lead to Economic Recession

Introduction

In the face of financial uncertainty, such as the looming threat of a recession, many individuals prioritize saving money. This prudent behavior, while seemingly beneficial at the individual level, can paradoxically lead to negative consequences for the overall economy. This phenomenon, known as the fallacy of composition, highlights the critical distinction between microeconomic and macroeconomic perspectives.

The Flaw in Individual-Level Frugality

At the individual level, saving money is a wise financial decision. It provides a safety net for unexpected expenses, financial security during retirement, and the ability to invest for future growth. However, when this behavior becomes widespread, it can have unintended consequences for the economy as a whole.

Saving and Aggregate Demand

In macroeconomics, aggregate demand refers to the total demand for goods and services in an economy. When individuals prioritize saving, they reduce their current spending, which in turn decreases aggregate demand. This decline in demand can lead to a decrease in production, employment, and economic growth.

The Paradoxical Impact of Saving

The paradox of saving arises from the fact that while saving is beneficial for individuals, it can be detrimental to the economy as a whole. When everyone saves more, they collectively spend less, which reduces demand and leads to a decrease in economic activity. This can create a vicious cycle where lower demand leads to lower production, which further reduces demand and leads to a recession.

The Role of Government Policy

To mitigate the negative effects of excessive saving, governments can implement policies that stimulate economic activity. This can include measures such as:

• Increasing government spending: This can directly inject money into the economy and increase aggregate demand.

• Tax cuts: This can leave individuals with more disposable income, which they can use to increase their spending.

• Lowering interest rates: This can make it cheaper for businesses to borrow money and invest, which can lead to increased production and employment.

Conclusion

While saving is a prudent individual financial decision, it can have negative consequences for the economy when it becomes widespread. Governments can play a crucial role in mitigating these negative effects by implementing policies that stimulate economic activity. By understanding the paradox of saving and the role of government policy, we can better navigate economic challenges and promote sustainable economic growth.

References

• The Fallacy of Composition: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fallacy_of_composition

• Aggregate Demand: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aggregate_demand

• Keynesian Economics: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Keynesian_economics