ãðãã¬ãŒãå®è·µç·šâ¢ãåãŠãªãçç±ã¯æ確ã»ãæå°å©å€§ãã極ããããšãåè ãžã®å¯äžã®è§£
ïŒïŒã¯ããã«
ã¿ãªããããã«ã¡ã¯ã
ãã¯ãã«ã«ãã¬ãŒããŒhanaðžã§ãã
æåã«å¿ããã«å³äžã®ãããâ€ïžãã¿ã³ã¯ãªãã¯ãããããé¡ãããŸãð€²ãååãããããé¡ãããããŸãã
æ¥é ããnoteãã芧ããã ãããããšãããããŸãããããããããšã«çæããççå ±åãããã ããŠããŸãã®ã§è»¢èŒãããŠãã ããâ
äžèšã®ãã£ãŒãã®éäžžã®ãšãã27æ¥ã§ãã³ãã€ã³ãã§ãã¢åETFãä»èŸŒãã§å«ã¿çã20ïŒ
以äžãããŸããSOXSã¯33ïŒ
ããåºæ¥ããã§ãðŠ
ãªããã®ãããèžåœãã§ããã®ãã¯çããä»ãŸã§ã®noteã§ã®ç§ã®åæãèŠãŠããã ãããåããããšæããŸãããç·»å¯ã§å°éãªåæã®ç¹°ãè¿ããã®ææã§ãã
æ£çŽãã¢åETFã¯ãå°é£ãçšåºŠã§ã®ãã¬ãŒãããããŠããŸããããçæ§ã«ã¡ãããšãã¢åETFã§ãå²ãããããã ãšããããšãå®æŒããå¿ èŠããããšæãä»åã¡ãããšèšŒæ ãæ®ããŠãã¬ãŒãããŠããŸãã
ãã¬ãŒãã£ã³ã°ãã¥ãŒããèªå®ã®æ¡å ãæ¥ãŸãããã¢ããã°ã¬ãŒããããæ¹ãäžèšãªã³ã¯ããç»é²ãããš30ãã«ç²åŸã§ããŸãããã£ãããšåæãããæ¹ã¯ç§ã®äœ¿çšããŠããPro+ãæšå¥šããŸããPremiumã¯äžèŠã ãšæããŸãã
ãããŠä»ååããŠnoteè²·ãæ¹ãªã©ã¯ãŸãã¯noteèšäºãŸãšããã芧ãã ãããã©ã®èšäºããè²·ãã°ããããåãããŸãã
ã§ã¯ç§ã®ãã¬ãŒãã¹ã¿ã€ã«ã«ã€ããŠèª¬æããŸãã
æ°ãæåãŸã§ã¯ã3åã¬ãã¬ããžã®SOXLãWEBLãTECLãªã©ãã¡ã€ã³ã§ããã
ç§ã¯ä»ãCFDååŒããšãããã®ãè¡ã£ãŠããŸãã
æ¬çš¿ã§è§ŠããCFDååŒã§ãæ¥æ¬æ ªã§ãç±³åœæ ªã§ãFXã§ãå€åãã®çã¯ç°ãªããŸããåºæ¬çãªãã¬ãŒãææ³ã¯åãã§ãã®ã§ãå®å¿ãã
CFDã«èå³ãããæ¹ã¯äžèšãªã³ã¯ããå£åº§éèšã§ããŸãâ
2ã3æ¥ããã°ããéèšå®äºããŸãïŒ
â»ã¢ããªãéããšãã¢ãã¬ãŒããã§ããã®ã§ãå¿ ãã¢ããªã§ãã¢ãã¬ãŒãããŠæ £ããŠããå®éã«å£åº§ã«ãéãå ¥ããããã«ããŠãã ããããªã¹ã¯ã䌎ããã®ã§ãã®ã§èªå·±è²¬ä»»ã§äœå°è³éã§è¡ãããã«ããŠãã ããã
ïŒïŒCFDãå§ããçç±ã¯ãè² ããªãããã
ç§ã¯åžžã ãè² ããªãæè³ãã倧åã§ãããšçæ§ã«ãäŒãããŠããããšæããŸããããŠãè² ããªãæè³ãšã¯äœã§ããããïŒç§ã¯ãåã€ããšãããè² ããªãããšãåªå ããæè³ãïŒãæå°å©å€§ãã®ããšã§ãããšèããŠããŸãã
ä»ãŸã§ç§ããã«åïŒåã¬ãã¬ããžETFããã¢åïŒåã¬ãã¬ããžETFã§å©çãåŸãŠããããšã¯çããããåãã ãšæããŸããç§ã«ã¯æžå¿µç¹ã»ããã¥ãããæããŠããŸããã
â æé
ã»ã¢ã¡ãªã«ããŒã±ãããéããŠããå€äžã«ãããã¬ãŒãã§ããã¹ãã¬ã¹
ã»å€äžã«ãã¬ãŒãããããšã¯å¥åº·ã«è¯ããªã
ã»æéå€ã«çªçºçãªãã¥ãŒã¹ããã£ãŠã察å¿ïŒãšã³ããªãŒãå©ç¢ºãæåãïŒãåºæ¥ããå®æ倱ãæ©äŒæ倱ã«ç¹ãã
â¡åŸåŸ©ãã¬ãŒãã®ãã«ãããååŒææ°æãçºæ¿
ã»ETFãåå¥æ ªãäžåºŠååŒãããã®ã«æ°çŸãæ°ååã®è²»çšãããããåŸåŸ©ã§äœåãããžã·ã§ã³ãå
¥ãæ¿ãããšããã ãã§ããªãç©ããã°èšå€§ãªè²»çšããããã
ã»å£åº§å
ã§ã®å¶çŽã§ïŒæ¥ã«äœåŸåŸ©ãã§ããªã
ã»åå®ã«æ¯ããŠããããæ°ã¶æéã¯æšå³ããã£ãããä»åŸåé«ã«æ»ãããšãæ³å®ãããšãã«è³ç£ã§ã®ãã¬ãŒãã¯æ§ããã
â¢ã¬ã3åã®ç¹åŸŽ
ã»ã¬ãã¬ããžååã¯éæžããããããSOXLã¯SOXXã®å€åãããæå€ãéœåºŠèšç®ïŒåè³ç£ã®ïŒåã®å€åçã§èšç®ïŒããªããŠã¯ãããæ£ç¢ºãªãã¬ãŒããã§ããªã
ãªã©ãªã©âŠ
å€äžïŒæã®FOMCãã¥ãŒã¹ãªã©ã§æ ªäŸ¡ãä¹±é«äžããã®ã§ãããã«å¿ããŠããžã·ã§ã³ã®æå€ãéæå€ãèšå®ããªããŠã¯ãããªãã®ã«å¹Ÿãã§èšå®ãããã¯å€§ãŸããªæ°å€ã§è©Šç®ããã®ã§çµ¶åŠãªãšããã§ã®æå€ã«åºãããªãããšããããŸããã
ãã®ç¹CFDã§ããã°äžèšã®å ¬åŒãµã€ãã«ãèšèŒã®ããéãææ°æã¯ç¡æãå€éãç¥æ¥ãååŒåºæ¥ãŸããããã¹ããã¯100ãæ¥çµ225ãªã©ææ°ã«é£åãã圢ã§æè³ãåºæ¥ãã®ã§çŽ çŽã«ååŒããããã§ãã
ããã§å°æ¥ã®ãããã¬ãŒããŒã䜿çšããŠããCFDãšãããã®ã«èŸ¿ãçããèš³ã§ãã3åã¬ãã¬ããžãããé«ãåçã®10åã§ããããã®åãã€ãªã¹ã¯ãã€ãªã¿ãŒã³ãªã®ã§ä»ãŸã§ãããæ°åãå
¥ããŠæ³šæããªãããã¬ãŒãããå¿
èŠããããŸãããæå°å©å€§ã®èãæ¹ã培åºããŠèªåã®ã«ãŒã«ã«åã£ãŠãã¬ãŒãããã°ç§ã®ä»ãŸã§å¹ã£ãŠããæè³ææ³ãæ倧é掻ãããããšãåãããŸããã
ãã€ãGMOã¯ãªãã¯èšŒåžã®ãã¬ãŒãç»é¢ã¯ãšãŠãåããããããã¬ãŒãåçã®åäžã«ç¹ãã£ãŠããŸãã
ãããŠãªããšã£ïŒãšã³ããªãŒããã¿ã€ãã³ã°ã§æå€ãšéæå€ãåæèšå®ã§ããã ãã§ãªããã®ãã¬ãŒãã§åŸãããæçé¡ãšæ倱é¡ãäžç®ã§åããã®ã§ãïŒ
ãªã¹ã¯ãªã¯ãŒãã®èãæ¹ã身ã«ã€ãã ãã§ãªããã¬ãŒãæ瞟ã®åäžã«ç¹ãã£ãŠããŸãïŒããã¯æ¬åœã«æåããŸããâŠ
âãã¢ã§è©ŠããŠãéæã¡æ°åãå³ãããŸãã
CFDã«èå³ãããæ¹ã¯äžèšãªã³ã¯ããå£åº§éèšã§ããŸãâ
â»ã¢ããªãéããšãã¢ãã¬ãŒããã§ããã®ã§ãå¿ ãã¢ããªã§ãã¢ãã¬ãŒãããŠæ £ããŠããå®éã«å£åº§ã«ãéãå ¥ããããã«ããŠãã ããããªã¹ã¯ã䌎ããã®ã§ãã®ã§èªå·±è²¬ä»»ã§äœå°è³éã§è¡ãããã«ããŠãã ããã
äžèšã®ããã«åããŠãã¬ãŒãããŠäœæ ãããŸããã£ãŠããç§ã®ãããªã±ãŒã¹ãããã°ãå šç¶åããŠããªããŠããã«ãéããªãããŠããŸãã±ãŒã¹ããããšæããŸãã
ïŒïŒCFDã3åã¬ããã¬ãŒããè¡ãåã®å¿æ§ã
ããã§çæ§ã«ãäŒãããŠãããªããšãããªãããšããããŸãããã¬ãŒãã®äžçã§çãæ®ã£ãŠããããšã®é£ããã«ã€ããŠã§ããå€ãã®äººãèªèº«ã®èš±å®¹ç¯å²ãè¶ ãããã¬ãŒããããŠéå ŽããŠããŸããŸãã
æåã¯ïŒæ100äžååã§ãã¬ãŒãããŠããŠãåã£ãŠèª¿åã«ä¹ã£ãŠå€§ãããããã匵ã£ãŠå€§æããããè² ããŠæãåãè¿ãããã«ç¡çãªãã¬ãŒããããŠæ倱é¡ãå¢ãããŠããŸã£ããããŸãã
å£é žã£ã±ãäœåºŠã§ããäŒãããŸãããCFDã«é¢ããŠã¯ãŸãã¯å£åº§éèšããŠå ¥éïŒã§ã¯ãªããGMOã®ãã¢ãã¬ãŒãç»é¢ã§ç·Žç¿ãããå°é¡ã§åãŠãããã«ãªã£ãŠããããããå¢ãããŸãããâ ïž
ïŒïŒéå»èšäºã®ã玹ä»
ããŠããããŸã§èªãã§ããã ããŠããæ¹ã§å®å šãªåå¿è ã®æ¹ãããã£ãããããšæããŸãããåºç€ç·šãšäžçŽç·šãèªãã§é ããŠå 容ã«æºè¶³é ããŠããæ¬çš¿ãèªãã§é ããæ¹ãè¯ãããšæããŸãã
ãã¯ãã«ã«åæã®åºç€ãããçšåºŠèº«ã«ã€ããŠãããšä»åã®å 容ãå®éã®ååŒã«æŽ»ããããããªå 容ãšãªã£ãŠããŸãã
åºç€ç·šð£ã«é¢ããŠã¯åå¿è
ã®æ¹ãæè³ãå§ããéã®åºæ¬çãªãã€ã³ãã»ããã®ä»æ¹ãæ
å ±ãœãŒã¹ã®èª¿ã¹æ¹ãªã©ãäžå¯§ã«æããŠããŸãã
äžçŽç·šðŠã«é¢ããŠã¯ãã¬ã³ãææ¡ã®éèŠæ§ã«ã€ããŠèª¬æããŠããŸãããŸãããã ããé ã«å
¥ããããšãåºæ¥ãã°æè³æŽ4-5幎ã®æ¹ããæè³ãæå©ã«é²ãããããããªå
容ã«ãªã£ãŠããŸããããã ãåãã£ãŠããã°å€§ããè¿·ãããšãªããã¬ãŒãã§ããã®ã§ã¯ãªãããšæããŸãã
äžçŽç·šð²ã«é¢ããŠã¯ä»ãŸã§ã®äž»èŠææ°ã®åããã2022幎ã®ææ°ã®ä»åŸã®å±æã«ã€ããŠèª¬æãããã®ã§ãããã¯ãã«ã«åæãçšããã°ããçšåºŠã®äºæž¬ãç«ãŠãã¬ãŒãããããšãã§ãããšããããšãã€ã¡ãŒãžã§ããããšæããŸãã
äžçŽç·šã¯åéãå€ãã®ã§å ã«å®è·µç·šã§æ¯æãããŠãè¯ããããããŸããããŸããä»åã¯ç§ã®è³å ã§ã©ã®ããã«èããªãããã¬ãŒãããŠããããç解ããŠé ããããã«éæã«ç§ã®èãæ¹ãçã蟌ãã§ããŸãã
å¬ããããšã«noteãèªãã§é ããå¡Ÿçããã¯hanaã®ãããã§å©çãåŸããããšæè¬ã®èšèãé ããŠãããŸãã
NOSUKeããðž
å¿åããðž
çæ§ã«ããèšã£ãŠããã ããã®ã¯ãšãŠããããããéãã§ããããããé 匵ã£ãŠæè³ææ³ãäŒããŠããããšããæ°æã¡ã«ãªããŸããããããšãããããŸããäžäººã§ãå€ãã®æ¹ã®æè³ããã©ãŒãã³ã¹ãäžããŠãããããšæããŸãã
âéå»ã®èšäºã¯ãã¡ãâ
ã»æè¿ã®äžèœçžå Žã§æã°ããããŠãã
ã»åšãã«æµãããªãã§å·éã«ãã¯ãã«ã«åæãããŠãã¬ãŒãããã
ãšããæ¹ã¯æ¬çš¿å«ãåèšäºãèªãã§é ãããå¬ããã§ãã
ïŒïŒãŸãã¯ææ°ã®æ¯ãè¿ããã
æ¬çš¿ã§ã¯CFDãšããé¡æã«ããŠããŸããæ¥æ¬æ ªã§ãç±³åœæ ªã§ãFXã§ã䜿ãããã¯ããã¯ãå ¬éããŠãããŸãã
ç§ã¯ç¬åŠã§ãã¬ãŒããåŠã³CFDãå§ããåæ¥ããåã€ããšãã§ããŸããããããããã¯ããªãã¬ã¢ãªã±ãŒã¹ã ãšæããŸããèªåãè¡ã£ããã¬ãŒãããã£ãããšåŸ©ç¿ããŠåçãã¹ããšããããã£ãããšæ¬¡ã«çãããã©ã€ã¢ã³ããšã©ãŒãç¹°ãè¿ãããšã§ç²ŸåºŠãäžããŠå©çé¡ã»åçãé 調ã«äŒžã³ãŠããŸãã
ã»åŸ¹åºçã«æå°å©å€§ã極ãã
ã»è² ãããäœãæªãã£ãã®ãããã£ãããšèããŠåã倱æãç¹°ãè¿ããªã
ã»èªåã®åæãåžžã«ééã£ãŠãããããããªããšçã
ã»èªä¿¡ããªãã®ã«å€§ãããããã§è³ããããªã
ã»ã®ã£ã³ãã«ã§ã¯ãªããã¬ãŒãã®æè¡ã磚ãå®è·µãã
ãã®ãããªæèããšãŠã倧åã§ãã
ç§ã®å°æ¬ããŠããŸãªãç¥ãã¬ãŒããŒãã¹ã¿ããã¯ããããããŒãœã¯è¶³ãåºæ¥é«ã移åå¹³åç·ãããããèŠãŠããªããšæãããŸããäžçŽç·šâ¡ã§ãäŒãããéãããŒãœã¯è¶³ã®æ¬è³ªïŒãã©ã€ã¹ã¢ã¯ã·ã§ã³ïŒãç解ããããšãäœãã倧äºã ãšæããŸãã
2022/7/1ãŸã§ã®ææ°ã®åæ
è¯ãããæ©ãå°æå ã®æè¡ãæããŠãïŒãšæãæ¹ãããã£ããããããããŸããããå°å³ãªç¢ºèªäœæ¥ãäœãã倧åã§ãã®ã§ãä»ãåããã ããã倧å±èŠ³ããæããããšã倧åã§ãã
ææ°ã®æ¯ãè¿ãã«å ããŠç§ã®æ°ãä»ããŠãããã€ã³ããéæã«ã¡ãã°ããŠèª¬æããŸããç§ãã©ãããæèã§ãã¬ãŒãããŠããããç解ããŠé ããã°ãšæããŸãã
VIXææ°ïŒææææ°ïŒ
以åã®èšäºã§ãèšèŒããéãæè¿ã®åŸåã§ã¯VIXææ°25以äžã¯ãªã¹ã¯ãªãã«å€§ããåã35ãé æã¡ã«ããŠãŸããªã¹ã¯ãªã³ã«æ»ããšããæµããç¶ããŠããŸãã
VIXææ°ã¯ç§ã®ãã¬ãŒãäžã§ãäžçªéèŠèŠããŠããææšã®äžã€ã§ãããã®ææ°ã®å€åããèŠãªããæ¯åãã¬ãŒãããŠããŸãããã®ãããã§å¹ŸåºŠãšãªã倩äºãåºãåœãŠããšèšã£ãŠãéèšã§ã¯ãããŸããã
VIXãäžããã°ãªã¹ã¯ãªãïŒæ ªäŸ¡ãäžããåŸåãããïŒãã³ã°ã®å©ç¢ºãã·ã§ãŒãã®ãšã³ããªãŒãæ€èšã
VIXãäžããã°ãªã¹ã¯ãªã³ïŒæ ªäŸ¡ãäžããåŸåãããïŒã·ã§ãŒãã®å©ç¢ºããã³ã°ã®ãšã³ããªãŒãæ€èšã
éæã®æç¹ã§26.7ãŸã§æ¥éäžããŠããŸããã©ããŸã§èœã¡ãã®ãåæããŠã¿ãŸãããã
å
é±ããäŒãããŸãããMACDãšMACDã·ã°ãã«ããããã¯ãã¹ããŠããŸããéç·ãšçŽ«ã®ç·ã亀差ãã25ïŒ26ä»è¿ãŸã§ã¯äžãã£ãŠããŠåçºããå¯èœæ§ã¯é«ããšèããŠãããŸããVIXãããã§åçºããã¿ã€ãã³ã°ãã·ã§ãŒããä»æããããã¿ã€ãã³ã°ã§ãã
ã¡ãªã¿ã«MACDã¯ãã¬ã³ã圢ææã«åšåãçºæ®ããŸãããéã«ããã¯ã¹çžå Žã«åŒ±ãã®ãç¹åŸŽã§ãã
äž»ã«MACDãšMACDã·ã°ãã«ãšãã2æ¬ã®ã©ã€ã³ã®äº€å·®ã売買ã®ã¿ã€ãã³ã°ãšããŠçšããããããšãå€ããåå¿è
ã®æ¹ã§ãã·ã°ãã«ã®çºèŠã容æã§ãã
å
·äœçãªæŽ»çšæ³ã¯äžèšã®å³ãã芧ãã ããã
売買ãã€ã³ãâ ãå³è¡šã®è²·â åã³ã売â ç®æãïŒïŒ¡ïŒ£ïŒ€ãšïŒïŒ¡ïŒ£ïŒ€ã·ã°ãã«ã®ãŽãŒã«ãã³ã¯ãã¹ã§è²·ãããããã¯ãã¹ã§å£²ãã
売買ãã€ã³ãâ¡ãå³è¡šã®è²·â¡åã³ã売â¡ç®æããŽãŒã«ãã³ã¯ãã¹åŸãMACDã0ã©ã€ã³ãè¶
ãã æç¹ã§æ¬æ Œäžæãšãè¿œéè²·ãããããã¯ãã¹åŸãMACDã0ã©ã€ã³ãäžåãã°æ¬æ Œäžèœãè¿œé売ãã
åºå
žïŒäžéšèª¬æãå³è¡šã¯ãããã¯ã¹èšŒåžãµã€ã
æŽã«äžæããã®ã§ããã°å
é±ãäŒãããäžèšã®ç»åã®ãããªã€ã¡ãŒãžã§ããã«äžå€ãããããå±éã«ãªããŸãã®ã§ãã芳å¯ããŠãã ãã
Fear & Greed Index
fearã¯ãææãgreedã¯ã匷欲ããšããæå³ã§ãã
ãã¡ãã®ææšã¯çŸåšåžå Žåå è
ãããŒã±ããã«å¯ŸããŠã©ã®çšåºŠææãæããŠããããææ¡ããããšãåºæ¥ãŸããã¡ãªã¿ã«2020幎ã®ã³ããã·ã§ãã¯ã®éã«ã¯ãïŒããŸã§ãããŸããã
CNNã®ãµã€ãã§ç¢ºèªã§ããçŸåšã®åžå Žåå è
ã®ææ
ãææ¡ã§ããŸãã
å
é±ã®28â24ãŸã§æªåããŠããŸãããFEARããEXTREME FEARã«åºåãå€ãã£ãŠããŸãã
ã¡ãªã¿ã«çè ã¯ãã®ææ°ãäžããææå¿ãé«ãŸã£ãŠãããšããã皌ãæãªã®ã§twitterã§èŠãŠããã ããéãä»é±ã¯ã€ãã€ããšããŠããŸããã
ã§ã¯æ¬¡ã«ææ°ã«å¯ŸããŠç§ç¬èªã®åæãããå 容ã確èªããŠãããŸãã
ããããã®æé足ã«ãããŠã©ã®ãããªç¹ã«æ°ãä»ããŠããã®ã€ã³ãžã±ãŒã¿ã䜿çšããŠåæããŠããã®ããåŠã³åã£ãŠããã ãããã§ãã
ããããå ã¯ææãšãããŠããã ããŸãã飲ã¿äŒïŒååææ ¢ããŠãã¬ãŒãã®æ瞟ãåäžãããŠçŽãã«å ãåã£ãŠããã ããã°ãšæããŸãïŒãã€ãããå°ãé«ãã§ãããããäžåãã»ã©ã®ææãåºããããã«æ¬æ°ã§å·çããŠããŸãã®ã§æ¯éãšãèªãã§ããã ããã枟身ã®äžäœã§ãã
ãããããã°ãµããŒããé¡ãèŽããŸãðž æè³ã®å匷ãããããã®æžç±è³Œå ¥ä»£ã«ããŠãããšæããŸãã