2024/4/25 投資ネタ

UG
#TJX /GS/Buy：消費者が慎重になる中でも客足と販売率が期待できる。また、ブランドとのリレーションを深め、マージンを拡大できている。
#DOCS /JPM/N：構造的に何か変化があったわけではなく、ここから一段売り込まれることは市場コンセンサスの10% YOYまで成長が鈍化するという織り込みを踏まえるとリスクは低下
#UPS /HSBC/Buy：ボリュームの減少が緩やかになり、コストも改善。Q2にはボリュームもマージンも改善し、2024のガイダンスも引き上げられる可能性がある。
#SHW /Keybanc/OW：Q1決算からの不透明感や高金利による2024のボリュームの不透明感は認めるが、2025/2026のボリュームの改善に注目すべき
#FIVE /WFC/OW：ほとんどの競合他社の裁量的な比較を上回っていると述べ、同社を魅力的な成長企業と見なし、再び軌道に乗ることができると考えている
DG
#MNST /JPM/N：アルミの上昇や低所得者層による購入鈍化。また新規チャネルの発掘が不十分で、世帯浸透率が伸び悩んでいる
#DECK /BofA/N：HOKA/UGGの成長ストーリーに問題はないが、期待値が高く、マージンが下振れるリスクがある
Initiate
#VSCO /GS/Sell：顧客の価格弾力性が悪く、他社対比リスクリワードが悪い

earnings
#MRK Merck Rides Keytruda To Another Beat-And-Raise, But Diabetes Headwinds Persist：
#CAT Q1 2024 Earnings: Surpasses EPS Estimates with Robust Profit Growth：Sales and revenues for the first quarter of 2024 were $15.8 billion, about flat to the first quarter of 2023, due to lower sales volume, which was mostly offset by favorable price realization.
#CMCSA   Earnings Top Estimates on a Rise in Peacock Subscribers：We grew broadband ARPU over 4%, delivered 7% revenue growth in our connectivity businesses, and expanded our Adjusted EBITDA margin across Connectivity & Platforms. In Studios, following a record year with eight Oscars including Best Picture, our film group continues to leverage our incredible IP with hits like Kung Fu Panda 4; and Peacock remains one of the fastest growing domestic streamers with impressive acquisition, retention and engagement trends.
#UNP ：This is a great start to the year, but we understand there’s work to be done to achieve our goals and meet our stakeholders’ expectations.”
#SPGI ：These include our strong positions in artificial intelligence with Kensho, sustainability and energy transition, and private markets.
#HON Surpasses First Quarter Earnings Expectations：Honeywell delivered a strong start to 2024. Organic growth was led by double-digit growth in both our commercial aviation and defense and space businesses.s long-cycle customer demand remained strong, our robust backlog increased 6% year over year and was up sequentially, ending the quarter at a record level of $32.0 billion.We also experienced pockets of recovery in short cycle, and expect broader participation as the year unfolds and channels normalize further.
#UL ：Overall:—Volume: +2.2%/—Price: +2.2%
#BMY shares fall amid sluggish sales of some newer drugs
#MO ：Our guidance includes the impact of two additional shipping days in 2024 and assumes limited impact on combustible and e-vapor volumes from enforcement efforts in the illicit e-vapor market.
#NOC ：Robust global defense spending and our strong backlog, along with expanding margins, continue to support our multi-year outlook for free cash flow growth.
#VLO (+1.8% pre) Refiner Valero beats profit estimates on resilient demand, tight supplies：Valero Energy beat first-quarter profit estimates on Thursday, as the U.S. refiner benefited from sustained demand while crude supplies remained tight from disruptions in Russia and refinery maintenance work.
#KDP rallies after earnings topper, new CEO announcement
#NEM Reports First Quarter 2024 Results：
#DOW beats quarterly profit estimates：In the first quarter, we captured improving demand, maintained pricing and benefited from lower feedstock and energy costs. The strength of our cost-advantaged positions around the world led to higher operating rates. As a result, Team Dow delivered volume growth and margin expansion sequentially across our diverse portfolio./　In the near-term, demand in key end-markets from packaging and mobility to energy applications are trending sequentially higher and in-line with our expectations at the start of the year
#RCL ：Demand for our leading brands and the incredible experiences they deliver continues to be very robust, resulting in outperformance in the first quarter, a further increase of full year earnings guidance, and 60% expected earnings growth year over year,
#LUV Earnings Reveal the True Scale of Its Boeing Problem. The Stock’s Tumbling.：The sequential improvement was driven by an acceleration in managed business revenues as well as benefits from network adjustments, which started in earnest with the March schedule. While costs remain a headwind, we are realizing benefits from our ongoing cost reduction actions and remain focused on enhancing productivity and controlling discretionary spending. We also have certainty with labor rates, having ratified agreements with 11 of our labor groups in the past 18 months, including the agreement ratified yesterday for our Flight Attendants.We are focused on achieving our financial prosperity goals and creating value for our Shareholders, while we adjust to changes in our aircraft delivery plans, Customer travel patterns and preferences, higher fuel prices, and other cost pressures.
#AAL ：Record first-quarter revenue of approximately $12.6 billion./
#HOG GAAP EPS of $1.72 beats by $0.20, revenue of $1.73B beats by $380M：Harley-Davidson delivered a good start to the year with a six percent retail growth in North America
#MSFT jumps as Azure continues strong growth, aided by AI：AI関連需要でソフトウェア・クラウドが堅調。AIへの投資増は他社と同じ。
#GOOG stock surges on earnings beat, dividend announcement：好決算、配当・自社株買い発表、AI投資は継続
#INTC stumbles as weak guidance, AI, foundry issues continue to weigh：見通し不振で下落。パッケージ技術の制約でAI需要を満たせず。ファンドリーでの損失も拡大。
#SNAP sees up to 18% revenue growth in current quarter, stock rockets after hours：新戦略が実を結び、広告が持ち直し
#ROKU gains as revenue beat drives narrower losses
#WDC surpasses Quarterly Revenue Expectations, Reports Strong Earnings Growth：クラウド向けは出荷量・プライシング共に改善。需給環境も改善。
#COF Profit Misses Estimates as Loan Write-Offs Climb：クレカのwrite-offがYoYで61%増加し、30days債務不履行も4.5%まで上昇
#KLAC Surpasses Revenue Forecasts and Aligns with EPS Projections in Q3 FY2024
#TMUS Reports Mixed Q1 Results: EPS Beat, Revenue Misses
#TEAM Q3 earnings surpass market expectations, reveals longtime CEO leaving
#GILD has strong Q1, but updated 2024 EPS guidance range misses consensus
#DXCM down after hours despite quarterly beats, 2024 outlook updates
#SKX rallies after strong international sales boost Q1 results
#SAM reports a surprise profit as Twisted Tea shipments keep growing

個別株
BREAKING: BHP submits an all-share takeover proposal of peer Anglo American per @Reuters $BHP $AAL #copper #nickel
#MU | Micron to RECEIVE $6.1 billion from the Biden's CHIPS and Science Act to support building 3-new facilities in Idaho and New York.
#Meta , #Goog to benefit from TikTok ban, Washington Post reports
Samsung starts mass production of 9th generation NAND memory, Nikkei reports
マクロ・債券
(米国)
JPM: "The collateral damage from META is negative for digital ad companies such as GOOG, SNAP, PINS, and ROKU but the AI-based capex spend is a positive for Semis/Hardware companies such as NVDA, VRT, SMCI"
US CONTINUED JOBLESS CLAIMS ACTUAL 1.781M (FORECAST 1.8135M, PREVIOUS 1.812M) $MACRO
US WHOLESALE INVENTORIES MOM ADV. ACTUAL -0.4% (FORECAST 0.3%, PREVIOUS 0.5%) $MACRO
BREAKING: US GDP QOQ ADVANCE ACTUAL 1.6% (FORECAST 2.5%, PREVIOUS 3.4%) $MACRO
GDP Deflator: 3.1% (exp. 3.0%, prev. 1.7%)
Core PCE Prices: 3.7% (exp. 3.4%, prev. 2.0%)
Pending Home Sales 3.4% MoM, Exp. 0.4%
Pending Home Sales -4.5% YoY, Exp. -3.0%
KANSAS CITY FED COMPOSITE INDEX ACTUAL -8 (FORECAST -5, PREVIOUS -7) $MACRO
people even quit gambling. Nevada Gaming Board reports March gaming win -1.6% year-over-year.
(欧州)
GERMAN GFK CONSUMER SENTIMENT ACTUAL -24.2 (FORECAST -26, PREVIOUS -27.4) $MACRO
FRENCH BUSINESS CLIMATE MFG ACTUAL 100 (FORECAST 103, PREVIOUS 102) $MACRO
ＳＴマイクロ、売上高が予想下回る－自動車向け半導体需要の鈍化響く
ECB'S MULLER: I'M NOT COMFORTABLE STARTING WITH BACK-TO-BACK CUTS.