見出し画像
Photo by acogale

2023 Aug 7 Market Wrapup

株式岸部


US Market

As earnings came in, stocks recovered from their worst week since March. Treasuries fell after a Federal Reserve official said interest rates could stay higher for longer to tamp down inflationary pressures.

  1. The S&P 500 ended a four-day decline, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained the most in more than seven weeks. Berkshire Hathaway set a new high when its earnings beat expectations. Amazon rose following news that the company will meet with the Federal Trade Commission to avoid an antitrust lawsuit. Tesla fell after its chief financial officer resigned unexpectedly in Elon Musk's company. This is Apple longest losing streak of the year.

  2. Ten-year US yields have resumed their rise, which took them to their highest level since November last week. Additional rate hikes, according to Fed Governor Michelle Bowman, "will almost certainly be required." Meanwhile, Fed Bank of New York President John Williams stated that policy must remain restrictive "for some time," but that rate cuts may be necessary next year if inflation slows. Traders were also looking for clues on the policy outlook from the consumer price index, which is due later this week.

  3. A clear majority of investors expect a US recession before 2024, making the current stock market bull market ephemeral and favouring long-term US Treasuries. According to the latest Markets Live Pulse survey, roughly two-thirds of the 410 respondents expect the world's largest economy to contract by the end of next year.

HIGHER AFTER EARNINGS
Chegg (CHGG) up 25.6%
Viant Technology (DSP) up 17.5%
Hims & Hers Health (HIMS) up 16.2%
Kyndryl Holdings (KD) up 15.7%
Sterling Infrastructure (STRL) up 7.6%
Manitowoc Company (MTW) up 4.5%
Paramount Global (PARA) up 3.8%
Palantir (PLTR) up 2.2%

ALSO HIGHER
Cerevel Therapeutics (CERE) up 7.1% on insider buying

DOWN AFTER EARNINGS
Alteryx (AYX) down 21.6%
EverQuote (EVER) down 19.9%
International Flavors & Fragrances (IFF) down 17.9%
RingCentral (RNG) down 11.2%
Tidewater (TDW) down 9.9%
Beyond Meat (BYND) down 9.8%
Clarus (CLAR) down 9.4%
ICU Medical (ICUI) down 9.0%
DocGo Inc. (DCGO) down 6.7%
Five9 (FIVN) down 5.7%
Kinetik Holdings Inc. (KNTK) down 4.7%

Mergers & Acquisitions:

  1. Campbell Soup (CPB) to acquire Sovos Brands (SOVO) for $23 per share in cash.

  2. Veritiv (VRTV) to be acquired by CD&R for $170 per share in cash.

  3. Tabula Rasa Healthcare (TRHC) to be acquired by Nautic Partners for $10.50 per share in cash.

Earnings

  1. Tyson Foods (TSN) reported downbeat Q3 results and plans to close four additional chicken facilities.

  2. Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A) reported a year-over-year increase in Q2 operating earnings.

  3. Pfizer's (PFE) COVID sales declined significantly in the most recent quarter.

  4. Genius Sports (GENI) reported Q2 results and provided guidance for FY23.

  5. Elanco (ELAN) reported Q2 results, raised FY23 guidance, and provided outlook for Q3.

  6. Gogo (GOGO) reported Q2 results and cut its FY23 revenue view.

  7. TreeHouse (THS) reported Q2 results, with CEO Steve Oakland expressing confidence in achieving financial goals.

  8. Henry Schein (HSIC) reported Q2 results and backed its FY23 guidance, with CEO Henry Schein commenting on solid results.

Stock News

  1. Google (GOOGL) will face a scaled-down antitrust suit in the U.S.

  2. Lucid Group (LCID) has cut prices of its Air luxury sedans.

  3. Amazon (AMZN) will meet with the FTC next week.

  4. Nektar (NKTR) is suing Eli Lilly (LLY) for a breach of contract.

  5. Vistagen Pharmaceuticals (VTGN) surges after its social anxiety disorder trial hits its primary endpoint.

  6. Nano Dimension (NNDM) rises after its board approved a $227.5M share repurchase plan.

  7. Black Knight (BKI) higher after jointly stipulating with Intercontinental Exchange and the FTC to dismiss a federal court case.

Top 5 Upgrades:

  1. Redburn upgraded United Airlines (UAL) to Buy from Neutral with a $80 price target, based on its preference for international airlines and a positive view on the impact of fewer narrow-body deliveries on capex and growth.

  2. Wells Fargo upgraded DraftKings (DKNG) to Overweight from Equal Weight with a price target of $37, citing the company's market share capture, improved product, and limited operating expense growth.

  3. Piper Sandler upgraded Monster Beverage (MNST) to Overweight from Neutral with a price target of $63, as the share pullback made Monster's risk/reward more attractive.

  4. UBS upgraded Wayfair (W) to Buy from Neutral with a price target of $110, noting the company's low valuation multiple and favorable intermediate-term setup.

  5. Guggenheim upgraded Fortinet (FTNT) to Buy from Neutral with a $70 price target, stating that the company's competitive position is intact despite some headwinds.

Top 5 Downgrades:

  1. Redburn downgraded American Airlines (AAL) to Neutral from Buy, citing its exposure to the competitive domestic market and sensitivity to rising fuel prices.

  2. Guggenheim downgraded Cloudflare (NET) to Sell from Neutral with a $50 price target, expressing concerns about execution risk and the stock's valuation.

  3. Redburn downgraded Southwest (LUV) to Sell from Neutral with a $27 price target, predicting downward pressure on unit revenues.

  4. Oppenheimer downgraded Sage Therapeutics (SAGE) to Perform from Outperform after the FDA rejected zuranolone for treating major depressive disorder due to lack of effectiveness. RBC Capital and Wedbush also downgraded Sage Therapeutics.

  5. Craig-Hallum downgraded MasTec (MTZ) to Hold from Buy with a price target of $98, down from $113, citing mixed Q2 results and lowered guidance for the rest of the year.

Top 5 Initiations:

  1. BofA initiated coverage of Fortrea Holdings (FTRE) with an Underperform rating and $27 price target, expressing concerns about its historical underperformance as a standalone entity after spinning off from Labcorp (LH).

  2. Seaport Research initiated coverage of Pentair (PNR) with a Buy rating and $88 price target, praising management's upgrades and improvements since the 2018 spin-off from nVent (NVT).

  3. Seaport Research initiated coverage of Fortive (FTV) with a Buy rating and $92 price target, expecting more upside to margins and an acceleration in deals in the near-term.

  4. Seaport Research initiated coverage of Ametek (AME) with a Buy rating and $195 price target, forecasting multiple sales opportunities and upper-single digit earnings growth.

  5. Benchmark initiated coverage of Global-e Online (GLBE) with a Buy rating and $50 price target ahead of its Q2 earnings report.

World News

  1. (Bloomberg) --US banks including Capital One, PNC Financial Services Group and Fifth Third Bancorp had their debt-rating outlooks cut by Moody’s Investors Service, which said the US banking sector is facing “several sources of strain.”

  2. Japanese capital flow data shows that despite a huge rise in AUD/JPY in June, inbound next purchases of ACGBs and Semis were only A$400m.

  3. Interesting discussion on the rise of hybrids as EV supply increases. As Lebeaucarnews pointed out - people are sick of range anxiety, and as I point out, hybrids are more efficient than the EV hype would have you believe.

  4. CHINA: S&P Global PMI "The overall inflation picture nonetheless remained subdued, which, combined with the sluggish demand picture and disappointing second quarter GDP numbers, will likely add to calls for further government stimulus."

  5. SF FED: “Our baseline forecast suggests that year-over-year shelter inflation will continue to slow through late 2024 and may even turn negative by mid-2024 .. the most severe contraction in shelter .. since the Global Financial Crisis ..”

  6. The US housing market may be staging a powerful recovery - if one only goes by homebuilders record prices and certainly not the highest mortgage rates in 40 years - but it's not because affordability is getting any better. On the contrary: according to Redfin, the typical homebuyer’s monthly mortgage payment was $2,605 during the four weeks ending July 30, up 19% from a year earlier and down just $32 from early July’s all-time high (with the 10Y blowing out, it's just a matter of time before we hit a fresh record).

  7. British retailers suffered from heavy rain in July on top of the impact of high inflation with sales growth dropping to an 11-month low, a survey showed on Tuesday.

  8. QCOM CEO: "Meta Quest 3 is the first VR & MR headset to be powered by a next-generation Snapdragon XR platform developed in collaboration with META. Quest 3 features 2x the graphical performance, higher resolution & a slimmer, more comfortable form factor than Quest 2"

  9. Jim Cramer just said he sees more positives than negatives for the market ahead - CNBC

  10. Two American warships with over 3,000 newly deployed US military personnel between them have entered the Red Sea, new statements confirm Monday, as part of the Pentagon's efforts to thwart Iranian seizures of international vessels in regional waters.

  11. In the first five months of 2023, US imports from China were down 24% from the same period one year ago: Census Bureau. Chinese products account for roughly 1 out of every 6 dollars Americans spend on imports, down from nearly 1 in 4 pre-pandemic: Oxford.

  12. Apple has begun testing its highest-end next-generation laptop processor the M3 Max chip, setting the stage for the release of its most powerful MacBook Pro ever next year - Bloomberg

  13. “We disagree with the market’s expectation that soft landing is the most likely outcome... multiples look too high." - Kolanovic

  14. Apple supplier Skyworks Solutions on Monday forecast fourth-quarter profit below Wall Street estimates as demand for wireless connected devices from customers outside the artificial intelligence (AI) industry remains gloomy.

  15. Tesla $TSLA just announced CFO Zachary Kirkhorn has stepped down from his role at the company as of August 4th. Tesla has appointed Vaibhav Taneja as Chief Financial Officer in addition to his current role as Chief Accounting Officer

  16. Lucid Group CEO: "We're on track toward achieving our 2023 production target of more than 10,000 vehicles, but we recognize we still have work to do to grow our customer base...In Q2, we raised $3.0B in capital, including $1.8 billion from the PIF..."

  17. Paramount Global CEO: "Notably, Paramount+ revenue grew 47%, total DTC ad revenue increased 21%, and global viewing hours on Paramount+ and Pluto TV were up 35% year-over-year. And despite the environment, TV Media continued to contribute significant earnings"

  18. S&P SAYS U.S. HOME PRICE OVERVALUATION CONTINUES TO EASE BUT REMAINS HIGH

  19. Apple Pay today became available for use in Vietnam

  20. The portion of U.S. consumers saying now is a "bad time to buy" a new home increased in July to 82%.

  21. General Motors $GM owned Cruise announced today it has started testing its self-driving vehicles in Atlanta - Tech Crunch

  22. Apple's $AAPL iPhone 15 event is reportedly planned for either September 12th or 13th with the phones expected to go on sale around September 22nd - Bloomberg


日本

23/08/07 14:00 日本 景気一致CI指数 <速報> 6月 115.1 115.2 114.3 
23/08/07 14:00 日本 景気先行CI指数 <速報> 6月 ★ 108.9 108.9 109.2

富山第一銀行<7184>：株価855円で+150円の上昇（+21.3%）でストップ高。連結決算発表後、最終利益見通しを上方修正し、配当予想も増配したことが株価を刺激。

  1. 栗本鐵工所<5602>：株価2,835円で+317円の上昇（+12.6%）。自社株買いの実施と好決算が好感され、株価が上昇。

  2. グローリー<6457>：株価3,216円で+331.5円の上昇（+11.5%）。売上高と営業利益の上方修正が好評で株価が上昇。

  3. オカモト<5122>：株価4,365円で+420円の上昇（+10.7%）。連結決算発表後、最終利益見通しを上方修正し、円安の影響を織り込んだことが株価を支援。

  4. アステラス製薬<4503>：株価2,191円で+200円の上昇（+10.1%）。加齢黄斑変性の治療薬承認を受けて株価が上昇。

  5. 日本触媒<4114>：株価5,834円で+528円の上昇（+10.0%）。営業利益見通しの上方修正が好感され、株価が上昇。

  6. ノリタケ<5331>：株価5,940円で+530円の上昇（+9.8%）。連結決算が市場予想を上回ったことで株価が反発。

  7. ユニ・チャーム<8113>：株価5,720円で+444円の上昇（+8.4%）。好業績を受けて株価が上昇。

  8. 合同製鐵<5410>：株価4,250円で+330円の上昇（+8.4%）。最終利益見通しの上方修正と配当増額が好感され、株価が上昇。


週明けの東京株式市場は、日経平均株価が前営業日比で61円上昇し、3万2254円で続伸。

  • 米国株市場の取引開始前に発表された7月の米雇用統計は、雇用者数の伸びが予想を下回り、同時に5月と6月の伸びも下方修正されたが、平均時給の上昇率は予測を上回った。

  • 米国株市場は一時高く始まり、雇用統計の結果をマイナス材料とは見なさなかったが、取引終盤に時間差で値を崩し、株式市場の値動きは不透明な展望となった。

  • 物色対象はバリュー株が主導し、PBRが割安な株が多いとされている。

  • ハイテク系銘柄の弱さが、日経平均株価の戻り足を弱めているが、バリュー株は強さを発揮している。


前週末の米国株式市場はダウ平均が150.27ドル安（-0.43％）で続落した。

  • 7月の非農業部門雇用者数は予想を下回り、一段高となったが、賃金上昇でFRBの利上げ観測は払しょくされず、アップルの低調な決算も売りを引き起こした。

  • 本日の日経平均は、米国株式市場の軟調な展開を受けて下落スタートとなった。

  • 個別銘柄では、半導体関連株や金融株、商社株などが下落。通信株や一部の企業が上昇。

  • 米国での消費者物価指数（CPI）発表やFRBの発言、企業決算発表が注目されている。

  • 海外投資家は現物株を買い越し、個人投資家は売り越しとなっている。

注目点：

  • 今週はインフレ関連指標やFRBの発言に注意が必要。

  • 企業決算が本格化し、プライム市場の個別株物色に注目。


東芝（<6502>）は、24年3月期第1四半期の連結税引き前損益が181億円の赤字に転落しました。同時に、公開買い付けに伴い今期の上期配当を見送り、下期配当も未定としました。

  • レーザーテック（<6920>）は、23年6月期の連結経常利益が前の期比89.6％増の636億円となり、24年6月期もほぼ横ばいで8期連続で過去最高益を更新する見通しです。また、配当も増額し、今期も増配する方針としました。

  • 東京海上ホールディングス（<8766>）は、24年3月期第1四半期の連結経常利益が前年同期比0.1％減の1713億円となり、通期計画に対する進捗率が低下していることが分かりました。


この記事が気に入ったらサポートをしてみませんか？