Generation Euro Students Award 2023 QA ①

2023年5月31日にECB主催で開催された Generation Euro Students Award での、スロベニアチームからラガルド総裁への質問。
他チームからの質問は下記記事のいちばん下のリンクから辿れます。

URL

スロベニアチームとの質疑応答は、動画の 12:55 ~ 14:25

Question

In times of supply shocks such as recent energy crisis, how long does the ECB take to evaluate the situation before responding with appropriate measures?
Thank you.

スロベニア出身、ニッカ嬢の質問

Answer

Great question.
I think the textbook would have predicated that because it is a supply shock, we see through it.
It will abate by itself and we do not have to take specific measures.

Now obviously what we have faced was not only a small supply shock.
It was a massive shock that was compounded by other shocks that eventually brought supply shocks with demand shocks and were one sort of escalated the other.

So, I would say that the first few months until December 21 we had assumed it would be a supply shock and we could see through.
From September 21 onwards, we knew it was not just a see-through process that we would have to take measures to remove quantitative easing first.
And then, given that we had forward guidance in our books, moved to interest rate hikes.
And that was what we did.

Notes

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So, I would say that the first few months until December 21 we had assumed it would be a supply shock and we could see through.
From September 21 onwards, we knew it was not just a see-through process that we would have to take measures to remove quantitative easing first.

これは日付の言い間違いでなければ、
2021年12月まで「供給ショックだから静観する」と言っていた一方で、2021年9月の時点ですでに静観するだけではいけない（まず量的緩和をやめるべき）と分かっていた、ということになりますね？

Words

be predicated on/upon something
  formal
    if an action or event is predicated on a belief or situation,
    it is based on it or depends on it