Marketplace podcast 文字起こし　When the government pays more on its debt, so do you

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‎Marketplace: When the government pays more on its debt, so do you on Apple Podcasts

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Jay Powell warned us of economic pain. The question is how much from American Public Media This is marketplace.

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In Los Angeles, I'm Kai results Tuesday today the 20th of September good as always to have a long everybody. The economic theme of this week is the cost of money. How much the Federal Reserve's going to raise interest rates when it wraps up its meeting tomorrow. Capitalism being what it is, though, markets have already started moving on the mere anticipation of that Fed rate hike, it is coming. By the way make no mistake that increase it's just a question of how much but bond markets in particular aren't waiting around the yield on the 10 year treasury note the interest rate right that the government pays on a 10 year loan from investors finished at 3.559%. Today, I just thought three digits would be good. They're the highest it's been in more than a decade. Merely knowing that economic fact, though, doesn't explain much why it matters. So marketplaces met love and gets us going with that.

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Even if you've never been late with a bill ever in your life, and you still have your Diners Club Card from like 1954 or something, the US government still has a better credit score than you. So when the interest rate Uncle Sam has to pay on his debt goes up the interest rate you have to pay on pretty much everything else also goes up because you're a riskier bet. When you're making auto loans. Obviously, there's at least some degree of risk even on customers that have very good credit. And therefore the Treasury yield sort of represents a lower bound of what we're able to offer to customers. Matt Dundas heads the auto financing unit at Carvana of since the yield on Treasury debt has shot up in recent months, we've passed at least half of that on to consumers and in many cases more than that, but what if you don't need a new car or mortgage or credit card balance transfer? Economist Eric Norlin with CME Group says higher yields on government bonds also means corporations will have to pay higher rates on their debt, which if you're thinking of going beyond quiet quitting, you should also care about

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as corporate bond yields rise. Typically hiring slows down. And this is something I think the Federal Reserve actually wants to achieve.

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Because of cooling labor market should cool down wage growth, which should cool down inflation at least that's the logic. It's not just the 10 year T note you should be paying attention to interest rates on some shorter term debt or higher the so called inverted yield curve. Quincy Crosby is with LPL Financial,

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what it suggests is that down the road, a recession is going to unfold.

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Crosby says the bond markets aren't right about that all of the time, but they're worth watching. I'm Matt Levin for marketplace.

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Alright, more now on the price of money, a key market that that price plays in and something that is not happening as interest rates go so go mortgage rates better than 6% on a 30 year fixed right now. And the thing that's not happening, even as money gets more expensive, is that by and large home prices aren't falling marketplaces Lily Jamali has been looking at what gives with that.

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In South Pasadena, a suburb of Los Angeles. The median home price is $1.7 million. Real Estate Agent Derrick Vaughn says there are 20 homes up for sale here but 12 have been on the market for two weeks or longer. So those homes are overpriced. Why aren't more sellers dropping prices on his computer Vaughn pulls up a recent listing

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on this house. It's a three bedroom one bath was built in 1910.

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In February it was listed for $1.2 million.

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It sold for $2.5 million cash. Wow. So double that was at the peak of the buying mania.

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He says some sellers still hope their homes will fare as well as that one. They're keeping prices high even as interest rates lead to fewer buyers making fewer offers nationwide price growth is slowing but Redfin says prices in August were still Up 7.1% Compared to last year, we don't have enough inventory. Lawrence Yun with the National Association of REALTORS says Americans who bought when mortgage rates were low aren't eager to move.

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Yes, they give up their home. They're giving up their 3%. More this way,

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and buying at a higher rate can make for a higher monthly mortgage payment. Redfin's Daryl fairweather,

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the vast majority of homeowners, they would actually be worse off if they bought and sold another home right now.

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And she says that explains why listings are down and the supply of homes is still tight. I'm Lily Jamali, for marketplace

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on Wall Street today, alright, here's the logic the higher interest rates that are coming tomorrow are going to slow the economy slower economy means lower corporate profits, lower corporate profits mean, the sad music when we get there.

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Back in the before times, you could ship a 40 foot cargo container across the Pacific Ocean China to the US West Coast for about $1,300. A year ago, just shy of $20,000. President Biden and to be fair, some others say those fees are helping to drive inflation. So back in June, the President signed the ocean shipping Reform Act, which empowers a very specific government agency to do all sorts of things at our ports to smooth out that supply chain. And the challenges that ocean shipping now suffers that agency is the federal Maritime Commission. Daniel buffet is the Chairman. Mr. Buffet, welcome to the program, sir.

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It's great to be with you. Okay.

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So for those in the audience who are not familiar with what you do for a living, what's the 32nd elevator pitch on the federal Maritime Commission?

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The Federal Maritime Commission is an independent commission. That's part of the government that regulates the commercial aspects of international ocean shipping coming into and going out of the United States. So you know, those big, huge ships with lots of containers on them. We regulate that.

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And as we all know, those have been for for I was gonna say many a month, but it's obviously more than two years now a key source of friction in this economy. The law in question that I referred to in the introduction gets passed, President Biden looks at you and says, Dan, I need you to fix inflation in the shipping and supply chain. What do you do when he says that to you?

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Well, I say yes, Mr. President, I will do my very best. And that's what we've been doing. We've already started implementing a lot of aspects of the bill is right now we're doing the rule that ensures that exporters and importers as well can get a box on a ship, unless there's some reasonable reason why the ship can decline that box. A lot of people don't know this. But these big carrier companies make a lot more money bringing stuff into the United States than they do bringing stuff out of the United States. But they should be taking our exports. And this, this law helps us make sure that happens.

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The President has said more than once I believe that I'm paraphrasing here, but only loosely that global shipping is a ripoff. Do you agree?

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I think it has been in many aspects. And I'll give you an example. So we don't regulate rates. But what these companies do is they often charge the importer or exporter, these fees. And often nobody knows exactly where they come from. They charge congestion fees. For instance, there was one carrier the charge of value added fee couldn't figure out why they weren't gift wrapping these huge container boxes, all these different fees. It's like when you get your cable bill, and you thought you ordered the 7999 package and you're paying 150 bucks. What's like that? Well,

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so But let me ask you this go into the kid will analogy right? I mean, the reason you want to pay 250 bucks on a on a 7999 packers on a cable bill is because they can right? And it seems to me with basically three huge sipping conglomerates controlling most of the trades specifically off off the across the Pacific that the answer is because they can how's the United States government which for all of its oomph in the global economy is only one of many in the global economy. How do you control that?

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Well, we control it by making sure that when there is an abuse of the system, we bring a case against them, and we can find them. And we try to to say, Look, we're not going to require this right now. But here's what you can do to make sure that your rules are in compliance. And we've had pretty good success with that. Now, do they always follow that? No. And sometimes we do have to go after the abuses and sometimes the abuses go to the highest levels of the company, but sometimes it's somebody mid level and the company executive will say, you know, gee, thank you for doing what you do. Because, you know, if you don't have a referee, they do get out of hand and that's what we saw in the midst of COVID

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with all possible respect. Do they really say thank you for doing what you know,

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they don't get right to call me. But but just don't they don't always they're not always unpleased, fair

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enough. I How far inland I guess, does your authority extend because a big part of the problem and you know, I went down to the ports of Long Beach and Los Angeles a number of times over the past couple of years, and you can't turn around without hitting an empty container or a stack of containers. How much of the infrastructure of shipping is under your purview?

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Well, those are two separate questions in terms of where our authority lies, it actually lies with the shipment. In other words, if the box is going to the ocean, or coming from the ocean, even if it comes all the way into Chicago, that is, under our jurisdiction, our jurisdiction does not stop at the water's edge. However, we do not have a lot of control over a lot of that inland infrastructure. Actually, you know, we don't do infrastructure generally. But once you get to the warehouses and the rail and the trucking, that's where we're seeing a lot of the problem. And I'll tell you why. It's a little bit like a broken sink. You say your sink is broken, and you call the plumber. But the plumber doesn't throw away the sink or the sink fixture, he fixes the pipes. And a lot of the backup actually has not been at the ports. Yeah, the ports have their issues, and they're working those out. But a bridge being built in Chicago makes me happy, because it's gonna make my job incrementally easier.

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So on the theory that that the global economy is maybe not never, but it's going to be a very long time before things go back to the way they were in the before times just as a baseline. Do you anticipate that global shipping somehow normalizes at an acceptable level, I suppose of service? You know,

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it's a tough question to answer because what is normal, it'll get to a kind of a new normal, we've already started to see that. Still a lot of congestion, but the volatility in the world is up even in terms of shipping. And there's people who will negotiate rates tomorrow who, you know, in a month that could be more expensive or could be less, and there's nothing I can tell them that would give them a clue on that.

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Then buffet, he's the Chairman of the Federal Maritime Commission, Mr. Murphy, thanks for your time, sir. I appreciate it.

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Great to be with you guys.

12:17
Two days after Hurricane Fiona dumped more than 30 inches of rain on Puerto Rico, things on the island are still grim, something near 80% of the population still doesn't have power. 10s of 1000s of people are stranded having left for higher ground as their homes flooded, which gets us to this. A lot of people in Puerto Rico do have hurricane coverage in their homeowners policy. But as marketplaces and EULA reports, most don't carry supplemental flood insurance and that is going to be a problem.

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There is a pattern to the storms that Isabel Aurea has seen throughout her lifetime in Puerto Rico,

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we often see the greatest damage because of the forceful winds.

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We finally managed to talk when she got cell service in San Juan, this one

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has been out of the ordinary most definitely

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this one was more of a rain event. She and her husband have hurricane insurance as part of their mortgage. But because they don't live in a floodplain, they don't pay for supplemental flood insurance.

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Most homeowners on the island do not have flood coverage.

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Mark Friedlaender is with the Insurance Information Institute. A study from the Wharton School found that less than 4% of households in Puerto Rico had flood insurance when Hurricane Maria struck in 2017.

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Many homeowners assume I have hurricane coverage. I have hurricane protection that includes flood well it doesn't.

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And whether wind or water caused the damage to a policyholders home. That's ultimately up to an insurance adjuster. Ronald Schumann teaches emergency management and disaster Science at the University of North Texas he says it's time for that to change.

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There's often this process that goes on to separate the wind from the water damage and determine what came first what can be traced to which but I think we need to be thinking about all hazards insurance,

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because the climate is changing and hurricanes will continue to drop lots of rain wherever they go. And homeowners who never thought they need flood insurance Truman says are going to find out that they do in Austin I made a EULAR for marketplace coming up,

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but one thing about recreation is it is a shot in the arm for the economy. True that

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but first, let's do the numbers. Industry industrials down 313 points today 1% 30,000 706. The NASDAQ down 109 nine tenths percent 11,004 to five The s&p 500 down 43 points one and a 10% 38 and 55 there. Spotify is getting into the audio books market announced the launch of an audio books collection today with more than 300,000 titles Spotify unplugged 2.4%. Nonetheless, Amazon discounted 1.9% In the midst of all the talk about inflation and interest rates ahead of the Federal Reserve's announcement tomorrow on that talk, you know, here and elsewhere automaker Ford put out a warning the other day that inflation related costs it was yesterday actually be about a billion dollars higher this quarter than it had anticipated. The Ford says it's experiencing parts delays for tanks more than 12% GM spotted down more than five and a half percent as I said earlier, bonds down yield on the 10 year T note 3.559% Fine rounded up 3.56 You're listening to marketplace.

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This marketplace podcast is supported by masterworks ever heard of the GEO Group? I'll bet you haven't because they're a private prison company trading at $10 a share. It's also the only stock Michael Burry is holding, you know the guy who predicted the 2008 crash. That's how bad the markets are with $13 trillion wiped out in a fiery monthslong cataclysm. As a result, more and more advisors are turning to alternative assets because they know during melt downs diversifying is the only way to survive. And when it comes to diversification, it's hard to be contemporary art, Morgan Stanley, JP Morgan and BlackRock all back contemporary art because when the stock market craters, its prices can still rise just like they did in 2008. That's just one reason why masterworks is seeing sky high demand, because they're helping investors get this same multimillion dollar contemporary art in their portfolios. And so far they've sold six paintings for an average net return of 29% to investors with volatility still raging demand for masterworks is so high there's a waitlist, but you can skip it by going to masterworks.com/marketplace see important Regulation A disclosures that masterworks.com/cd Again, that's masterworks.com/marketplace This is

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marketplace, I'm Kai rezaul food delivery in New York City is kind of a staple right has been for decades longer, probably. But here in the 21st century, the delivery part of food delivery is changing the vehicles of choice for a lot of food delivery gig workers in that city are electric scooters and electric bikes, which the New York City Fire Department has blamed for dozens of fires usually because the batteries overheated while they were charging. So now the city's housing authority wants to ban them from its buildings, marketplaces. Samantha fields has more.

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Seven days a week Mufasa ramen delivers food for DoorDash and Uber Eats in Brooklyn. To do that he relies on his E bike. It's fast and compared to a car or a gas powered scooter.

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You can save some money like you don't have to buy gas every day. You don't have any oil change or anything.

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But even though e bikes are the most affordable option, they're still expensive,

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is almost like $1,800, one of these new bikes, and that's

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actually on the lower end of what the bikes can cost, says Melinda Hanson at the consulting firm electric Avenue.

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A lot of what you actually see on the street and a lot of what's being sold in stores across the city and sold online are of unknown origin. They're cobbled together with different parts.

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High end e bikes are generally certified as meeting certain safety standards, Hanson says, but many cheaper ones aren't necessarily and that can cause problems.

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Because sometimes they're just actually not designed to work together. You know, the power cord can pull too much power to the battery.

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And if a battery is damaged or left charging for too long, it can overheat and explode. The thing is, Hanson says there's really no way for delivery workers to tell what's safe and what isn't. And even if there were,

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the problem is of course the folks who are using these for their jobs, you know, they don't typically tend to be very high income. The difference of $500 that could get you from a lower quality bike to a higher quality bike is often out of reach

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around 3pm. On a recent Tuesday, seven or eight delivery workers are sitting on their E bikes and mopeds in the shade across from a Shake Shack in Brooklyn looking at their phones, but freezer ramen says it can take up to an hour for an order to pop up on the apps and sometimes it's not worth taking.

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Let's say this one is like over like two months.

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He would only make about $5. So

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it doesn't make no sense to go up there right now because every time you go you gotta spend like a lot of energy from the battery.

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Batteries are another big expense for delivery workers who ride bikes from on says his only last two or three hours so to work an eight or 10 hour day,

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you have to buy extra battery one of the extra batteries like $580 right now,

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and he has to swap them out to charge several times a day to be able to do that he pays someone $50 a month to charge them in a basement, or mom says the person he pays it has about 100 ebike batteries charging in that basement.

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There's an underground economy benefit from

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this. Ilene cologne is the policy director for an organization of app delivery workers called loose deliveries does who need us. She says that informal underground economy is huge because

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there's no infrastructure in New York City to store your bike safely, or even to charge your bike safely.

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And she says there needs to be, especially if the city bans the bikes and batteries from public housing or other landlords do. But ban or no ban cologne says there is still a real need for ebike infrastructure.

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We don't want this informal economy. We talked about our workers life and safety.

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Those deliveries testimonios is pushing the city to create hubs where delivery workers can go to charge their batteries and places for them to store their bikes safely to. For now, the organization's office in Brooklyn has become a charging hub of sorts.

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Some of the workers bring sometimes their equipment while they're here, they actually charge a battery.

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But cologne says it's not enough. There are at least 65,000 delivery workers probably more working all over the city. Most of them use these e bikes. And right now they're all just on their own figuring out how and where to charge and store them.

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This equipment and this technology here is to say not only is good for everybody more accessible for people, which you have proof, right. But it also impacts our climate. So we definitely want to make it work.

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The city, state and federal government are encouraging people to buy electric cars and investing in that infrastructure. Cologne says why not for electric bikes too. I'm Samantha fields for marketplace.

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Sometimes there's just nothing like a good walk in the woods or on a trail in the mountains or anyplace really, that's not paved. And you can of course find good trails anywhere. If you look especially though out west, maybe the road logging roads are long cattle migration routes or whatever, but you don't have to get too far from a city out here. Sometimes they're actually in the city to find a good trail. And in Wyoming in particular, as that's the key industries oil and gas exploration and mining come under some pressure. Well, a good Trail is a business opportunity. from Wyoming public radio Caitlin tan reports.

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It's a weekday evening in the mountains near pine doubt, a rural town in Western Wyoming. A few people from the local trails organization came with their shovels and our digging trails. Ryan Grove explains the plan to Paul Swenson

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trying to curve it back and just kind of sneaking up so it's not fall line the whole way. And then we'll put some drains into

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these trails were built for downhill mountain biking back in the late 90s.

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Maybe a little too early for downhill mountain biking in the West twitches now, exploding in popularity.

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That's Alex arts,

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another member of the group. These trails are still used and usable, but they definitely need a lot of improvements.

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pintail is pretty small with about 2000 people and its main industries are agriculture and natural gas production. It's a boom and bust kind of town. But the area has about 750 miles of trails, a lot of them are just outdated. Some go straight up the mountain without any switchbacks. Others are completely overgrown, so the trails group wants to fix them up. That means a lot of hours moving rocks and shoveling dirt. And if places like pine Dale could develop and upkeep all those trails, it could become an economic driver for the state. The group American trails says that recreation trails are linked to economic growth. Some in Wyoming see outdoor tourism as a way to diversify its economy. Coal mining recently hit a 50 year low in the state in 2020. And the last major natural gas boom was in 2009.

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My office is sort of coming of age and a really important time in Wyoming history.

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That's Patrick Harrington with the Wyoming office of outdoor recreation. In 2020. At the height of the pandemic, Wyoming saw a record number of visitors who came to explore the state's public lands.

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We're looking at development at a grand scale and what the future of our state is going to be. But

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that development is expensive. Harrington estimates that it costs about $50,000 per mile of new trail. Recently, he says the state received millions from the American rescue plan act that will go toward the development. The state is also exploring charging people fees to recreate on the trails as a way to help cover costs. But not everyone loves this change. Many people live in Wyoming for its solitude.

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People don't want their community be overcrowded.

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That's Wyoming State Representative Jim Roscoe.

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I have to agree with these people that I don't want, you know, my backyard to be overrun either. But one thing about recreation is it is a shot in the arm for the economy.

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Rosco says if enough planning goes into building outdoor tourism, he thinks some of that solitude can still be preserved. He's sponsoring a bill next year that would provide $40 million in funding to help develop trails in small towns, both for tourism and the local community. The local trails group in Pinetown. The sublet Trails Association is made up of volunteers. They recently landed a grant for $5,000 That's helped with purchasing shovels and other trail building tools. But they too want to be careful with the Development Association member Alex arts says he doesn't want Palmdale to become a huge tourist town.

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We just want to improve things that people that are already here the rural feel

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is the reason he lives here. And he says better trails will help the whole community in Pineville Wyoming I'm Caitlin tan for marketplace.

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As final note on the way out today, just an entry in the year the economy really is slowing down file GAAP announced today it's cutting 500 headquarters jobs it's a fraction of the 8700 or so corporate positions the company has but you know you gotta keep track of these things

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all right off we go here though your moment of economic context crude oil today the US benchmark West Texas Intermediate down about 2% or so at $4 barrel that's back down here. It's January lows. Meanwhile gas and my local shell up 30 cents in like two weeks. But no, I'm not bitter. Our digital and on demand team includes Carrie barber Dylan method and Janet when Olga Oxman. Donna Tam and Tony Wagner. Francesca levy is the executive director of that slice of the marketplace empire. I'm Kai Rizzo we will see tomorrow everybody this is a pm

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a Philadelphia today was sentenced to 22 years in prison and fined $100,000 This was just unbelievable. You got to understand the genius and Larry. Nobody was doing coke. At this point. No

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one could believe that this highly educated young handsome man was this content drug dealer.

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This is wolves among us. The Larry Levitt story, a documentary podcast from C 13 originals, a cadence 13 Studio. Listen now on the Odyssey app or wherever you get your podcasts