Marketplace poscast 文字起こしWhy do they call it a soft landing?

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‎Marketplace: Why do they call it a soft landing? on Apple Podcasts

0:01
Well here we all are waiting on Jay Powell again, from American Public Media. This is marketplace.

0:19
In Los Angeles, I'm Colin Rozelle. It is Monday today, the 19th day of September. Good as always to have you along, everybody. All right, come on, say it with me now. Jay Powell, Jay Powell and the Federal Reserve, Jay Powell and the Federal Reserve and interest rates. That's the whole economic ball of wax this week as the Federal Open Market Committee meets tomorrow on Wednesday, to decide how much they are going to raise interest rates. Spoiler alert, they've already decided they're just not going to Dallas until Wednesday. The smart money is on a three quarters of a percentage point bumped consult your own financial advisor on that, of course, as the Fed tries to tighten financial conditions make money more scarce basically, as a way to cool off this economy. Among the other things a rate hike is going to do is to push mortgages even higher which brings us to new homebuilder confidence numbers out this morning from the National Association of Homebuilders. They're a tad blue home builders are sentiment fell in September for the ninth month in a row marketplaces. Justin home explains what is going on.

1:26
Home Builders have already been paying more for labor and materials. Now they're also paying higher interest rates on construction loans.

1:33
It puts additional cost to the project that you just have to account for just like if you have an uptick in lumber.

1:40
That's John Kirk, Managing Director at Embry partners, a development company based in San Antonio that builds rental units. He says for $100 million construction project Hill typically financed about 60 to 70% of the total cost. And if the interest rate on that borrowing goes up, Kirk says he might think twice about a new project.

1:58
It has to make sense economically. And so you have to underwrite you know what you think the rents are going to be what you're going to build it for in Are we at you know as developer Are you going to to take on that risk.

2:09
That's why rising interest rates can cause homebuilder confidence to fall. So Susan walked her real estate professor at the Wharton School.

2:16
And with that, of course, instruction will follow as well and will fall off and that's going to, in fact make housing prices go up.

2:25
Which is not exactly the goal of the Feds interest rate hikes. This is Brian Lancaster, a professor at the Columbia Business School.

2:31
In some ways I say that fed in trying to kill inflation is shooting itself in the foot inflation wise in terms of housing anyway.

2:38
Lancaster says a slowdown in housing construction would likely affect single family homes where construction costs are rising and home prices are starting to moderate. But multifamily and apartment construction projects might still go forward because rents are up.

2:53
Landlords are developers of multifamily are raising rents raising rents, because that's their revenue. And that's helping to offset inflationary costs of building and the higher costs of borrowing.

3:03
Problem is he says higher rents mean more inflation. And then the Fed might consider raising rates even more. I'm Justin how from marketplace

3:12
on Wall Street, they modestly higher, moderately higher, you might say as traders wait for word from Powell at all. We'll have the details when we do the numbers.

3:40
As I said a minute ago, there might as well not be any news in this economy this week to Wednesday afternoon to Washington time when the Fed makes its interest rate announcement and then chair Powell takes questions. It's not at all an exaggeration to say that economists and economic journalists and corporate executives and politicians are going to be parsing every last word of what Powell says, for hints about what the Fed has in store for this economy. But we figured why wait, why not get ahead of the parsing? Specifically, we are going to dissect the phrase soft landing right now. The oft repeated metaphor that I think Powell but certainly analysts and economist and yours truly have used to describe what the Feds been trying to do most of the past year get inflation under control without seriously damaging the economy. Turns out that phrase soft landing didn't exactly come out of nowhere marketplaces met Levin is on the etymology beat today.

4:33
When I hear the phrase soft landing, this is kind of what I picture.

4:39
Attention passengers. This is your captain Jay Powell speaking, wanted to give you a heads up that you may feel some turbulence on our descent. That big old storm in Eastern Europe is messing about with our glide path, and things might get a bit bumpy. For those of you back in the economy, Kevin, but we will try to make things as smooth as we can.

4:59
Economics loves its aeronautics terms, headwinds, tail winds, glide paths, even the word bailout when you really think about it. The phrase soft landing, though originates from far above the cruising altitude of most economic metaphors.

5:13
It was really the space race between the US and the Soviet Union that was getting so much attention.

5:19
Ben Zimmer is a linguist and writes about the history of financial terms for The Wall Street Journal, Americans had space fever in the late 60s and early 70s. So with prices rising in 1973, Zimmer says Treasury Secretary George Shultz invoked the term soft landing to describe how a mild economic cooldown could help inflation.

5:41
What we're trying to do with the economy is similar to in this metaphorical way, trying to guide a lunar capsule to the surface of the moon.

5:50
Unlike NASA, neither the Nixon administration nor the Fed at the time actually succeeded. But with all due respect to Neil Armstrong, we've landed on the moon six times, we've executed a perfect economic soft landing. Once there's an

6:05
old expression about whether you'd rather be lucky than good to do a perfect soft landing, you have to be both lucky and good. So we were good in our decision making, and we were lucky.

6:14
Alan Blinder started as vice chair of the Federal Reserve in 1994. The chair was Alan Greenspan, at the time, inflation was at 3%. Really not that bad. And GDP growth and unemployment were pretty good. But the Fed thought if it didn't raise interest rates, the real rate had been zero for a while inflation was just around the corner,

6:35
you want to get a soft landing, it's a good idea to get started early, so you don't have to really slam on the brakes.

6:43
This was not popular. The best the Fed had done in the past were soft ish landings that still produce mild downturns. Nevertheless, the Fed went ahead and doubled the federal funds rate over the course of 13 months. And it worked, inflation stayed low. The economy still grew and the labor market was great. Do you remember a FOMC meeting where you guys all turned around to each other and screamed? We did it in high fived?

7:10
No, the Federal Open Market Committee is not like that. You don't see a lot of high fiving or just stimulation through even changes in facial expression.

7:20
blinder thinks the phrase soft landing is fine. It's a way to communicate to the public what the Feds goals are even if it oversimplifies things. But economist Vincent Reinhart is not a fan. He was also at the Fed in the 90s and says there's a reason Greenspan didn't use the metaphor very frequently.

7:37
I think it's jass more control the economy than the central bank really has.

7:45
Jay Powell has no say in the Russian invasion of Ukraine or China's COVID lock downs or even last year stimulus checks. The Fed in the mid 90s didn't deal with anything like that. Reinhart says, if we're going to torture the soft landing metaphor, it's more accurate to make it a bit more cinematic. Gonna make coming out and we gotta get out of here. I can't leave

8:08
the right images. You're actually a carrier pilot, trying to land a plane in a storm on the carrier deck. When you say soft landing. You're saying trust me, I'm Tom Cruise.

8:22
The Fed looks like it's moving away from the soft landing metaphor now as inflation stays high. Chairman pals recent speech at Jackson Hole was anything but soft, emphasizing the pain that will come with rate hikes. I'm Matt Levin for marketplace.

8:55
There is news of well, there's news of stealing in this economy today Wegmans. The grocery chain says it's getting rid of its self checkout app because apparently, people aren't exactly being scrupulous in what they're putting in their shopping carts and what they're paying for. And in point of fact, the National Retail Federation is out with its new retail security survey which says retail shrink. That is the broad phrase for everything from theft to gift card fraud and inventory mismanagement. It accounts for nearly $95 billion worth of losses last year about $5 billion more than the year before. A reason perhaps, that in addition to the changes at Wegmans, some of the biggies like Target and Walgreens have closed some stores or they've shortened hours because of those SEFs marketplaces. Kristin Schwab is on retail for us today.

9:43
The kind of theft that's mostly happening isn't run of the mill shoplifting. It's organized crime says Mark Matthews at the National Retail Federation. It ranges

9:52
from you know, incredibly sneaky to you know, incredibly overt,

9:56
maybe you've seen stories about people running into stores and grabbing I Adams in plain sight, Matthew says thieves are usually not so dramatic and much more calculated.

10:05
They're smart, they'll often steal and just below the felony threshold. And they're also aiming for certain types of products

10:12
like denim ink cartridges and Teeth Whitening Strips items that are easy to pocket and have a high resale value. Close to 40% of retail shrink is people coming into stores to steal nearly 30% is theft by employees Carl Lang horse to teach us retail asset protection at the University of Cincinnati.

10:31
It could be theft of product it could be outright cash theft, credit card fraud, discount products fraudulently to finance,

10:40
there are plenty of ways retailers tried to prevent theft or security cameras software that recognizes strange buying patterns, including app self checkout, languor says the most effective method is low tech. Let's say

10:51
it's a clothing store and they have a handful of blue jeans Can I hold those for you at the register until you're ready to check out

10:58
that tells thieves employees are engaged which also increases perceived safety for shoppers. Reed Hayes who directs the Loss Prevention Research Council says relying too much on security tags and locking up products can create a hostile shopping environment

11:13
when the place can become a place that nobody wants to work that very few want to shop in.

11:19
He says when retailers stopped selling certain products were closed altogether. The biggest loss is convenience for shoppers and jobs to a community. I'm Kristin Schwab for marketplace.

11:47
After a year, sometimes more of virtual school, a lot of districts around the country are really getting back into gear this fall. And that means programs that might have been changed or outright canceled during the pandemic. I'm thinking band and orchestra to be specific here are having to start up all over again. So what is a parent to do when the violins and the clarinets and the trombones got shoved into the back of the closet at the beginning of the pandemic, or all the way out of tune? Well, that is today's installment of our series my economy.

12:18
My name is Avery McDaniel. I'm the owner and repair technician at McDaniel music repair in Beloit, Wisconsin. So, at least in this part of the country, and with the way that our current business structure is set up, almost all of our business goes through the schools, school accounts that send in repairs or the schools that need to purchase things. And then especially the rental contracts that go through the schools is just literally what pays, you know, pays the payroll and main bills. Most summers, we end up being fairly busy as it is. We go through and spend most of the summer doing minor amount of overtime every week most of us are running between about 45 and 50 hours a week, you know, starting the first of June and going all the way up until Labor Day. The issue we're running into this year, as as opposed to other years is the work that has to get done on the instruments we're working on. They're more more involved repairs because they've been in our project piles for a while. I know like the other technician, you know he did 60 hours last week. In the next three weeks. I have a grand total of five hours that are not already allocated somewhere. We started noticing about two weeks ago that we were running very low on an instrument that we never thought we'd be running out of which are clarinets. It was always one of those instruments that we had just stacks and stacks of clarinet. So we've never been running out of it before. And then all of a sudden we run out and we start kind of checking some of the numbers. You know year to date from last year to this year, we had a 40% increase in clarinet rentals. And that's just clarinets, I you know that overall statistic is somewhere between 10 and 15%. But the clarinets was just a massive jump that we had no way to predict it. And right now we're left kind of scrambling going. Okay. I'm telling customers about three to half weeks on turnaround time to get a repair completed right now. And honestly, I'm really close to increasing that to a full four weeks because I just don't have the time. We just kind of knuckle under and do the work. We're really looking forward to finishing up what's looking to be our busiest rental season ever. It's one of those things what we keep telling ourselves is it's it's a good problem to have. It doesn't make it any less of a problem

14:57
that's Avery McDaniel is the owner and lead tech addition of McDaniel music repair videos you can get in Beloit, Wisconsin. You know we cannot do this series without you so do us a favor Would you tell us what is going on with you at marketplace.org/mike? Coming up,

15:20
red could be an issue Black could be an issue any of the deep colors can be issues.

15:25
Time to break out the color. Well, I guess first though, let's do the numbers. Dow Industrials up 197 points today six tenths present to finish at 31,019 for the blue chips, NASDAQ up at 6.7 tenths percent 11,000 535. The s&p 500 grew 26.6 tenths percent 38 and 99. As Justin was telling us homebuilder confidence is down again this month. So look at some of the big home construction companies, shall we Dr. Horton nailed on 2.7% Toll Brothers moved up 2.1% maritimes homes added on 2.3% That oughta take care of some of their confidence. Right? Griffin Trump looked at the uptick in items stolen from retailers. Now some companies are dealing with that Starbucks that announced this summer it would close some of his shops in several cities, citing crime concerns. steamed up nine tenths percent target delivered four tenths of 1% Walgreens boots Alliance lost three tenths of 1%. Today the footsie was closed today in the UK, for instance, CAC 40 off about a quarter percent. Germany's DAX added four tenths of 1% Today you're listening to marketplace?

16:47
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17:17
This marketplace podcast is supported by masterworks ever heard of the GEO Group? I'll bet you haven't because they're a private prison company trading at $10 a share. It's also the only stock Michael Burry is holding, you know the guy who predicted the 2008 crash. That's how bad the markets are with $13 trillion wiped out in a fiery monthslong cataclysm. As a result, more and more advisors are turning to alternative assets because they know during melt downs diversifying is the only way to survive. And when it comes to diversification, it's hard to be contemporary art, Morgan Stanley, JP Morgan and BlackRock all back contemporary art because when the stock market craters, its prices can still rise just like they did in 2008. That's just one reason why masterworks is seeing sky high demand, because they're helping investors get this same multimillion dollar contemporary art in their portfolios. And so far, they've sold six paintings for an average net return of 29% to investors with volatility so raging demand for masterworks is so high there's a waitlist, but you can skip it by going to masterworks.com/marketplace see important Regulation A disclosures that masterworks.com/cd Again, that's masterworks.com/marketplace

18:34
This is marketplace, I'm Kai rezaul. The latest figures we have are that 95% of the people on Puerto Rico are still without power today. That is the island deals with the aftermath of the 30 inches of rain. 30 inches that hurricane Fiona dumped on him. This storm comes almost five years to the day after Hurricane Maria wiped out Puerto Rico's electrical grid leaving a lot of people without power for more than a year. And just a couple of weeks ago, the federal government promised at nine and a half billion dollars to rebuild Puerto Rico's grid and make it more resilient against storms like this. marketplaces. Stephanie Hughes has more on what people are going to be doing. In the meantime,

19:12
architect Vanessa Mari lives on the outskirts of San Juan. Her home has been without power and running water since Sunday morning. It was her 16 year old daughter who suggested they start collecting rainwater to flush the toilets.

19:23
She said Mom, I have to put her back. We have not collected water.

19:28
Tomorrow. He also has emergency supplies drinking water can sausages and a generator they use at night. They're the kinds of preparations many households have made.

19:37
It took Puerto Rico approximately 50 years to build the island wide grid. And then Maria destroy that in a day

19:45
and a half. Sergio Mar swatch is with the Center for the new economy, a think tank based in San Juan. The government put a couple of billion dollars towards emergency repairs for the grid. But he says that's not enough.

19:56
You have to create a grid that can work instead. Beckman's so the entire island doesn't lose power. When you get a storm from the south.

20:05
He says to make that happen would take about $14 billion in 10 years. And some say that grid needs to rely on renewables and grid Vila with the Puerto Rican nonprofit cambio is advocating for a proposal with an evocative name

20:18
to get endless sorting. So we want sun in Spanish, where you would have people obviously generate power within their houses and accompany with storage with batteries.

20:31
And if the government doesn't fix the grid architect Vanessa Mari says Puerto Rico will suffer.

20:36
So am I gonna call to name people coming to visit people are going to come to work

20:43
after Hurricane Maria more than 133,000 people left Puerto Rico in 2018 for the mainland us up more than a third from the year before. I'm Stephanie Hughes for marketplace.

21:13
Here's one from the more things change, the more they stay the same folder while parts of the supply chain as you know are unclosing themselves other parts are not and in that latter category is paint still clued so we've gotten Ryan him out of back on the phone he runs random auto painting LLC. Mr. Moto. Good to have you back on sir.

21:36
It's great to be here

21:37
again. So it's been a year since we talked to you about the great paint shortage of 2021. still happening?

21:45
Still happening in various different ways. But certainly still, it's still an issue.

21:50
Give me some free instances like if I need so this is dead serious question my house needs to be painted, we're calling the guy today, is he going to tell me I'm sorry, it's going to be an extra 27% Because I can't get paint,

22:02
he's going to tell you that that paint has significantly went up in price. It also depends on what colors you choose. So that's been our main, our main issue, the type of color, and the type of paint you want to use.

22:15
Red has has red, I need red outside paint.

22:19
Red could be an issue. Black could be an issue, any of the deep colors can be issues, depending on the ingredient of certain paints.

22:28
So can we break this down for a minute, right? Because, obviously paint this chemical and there's a bunch of inputs to it. Is there something specific in the supply chain? That's the choke point? Or is it just everything that goes into a gallon of paint?

22:41
It's been certain residence. We've we felt it more on our commercial end. So when we're painting stores or industrial facilities epoxies they have been some some major issues for us, where we're scrambling to find materials from from every different vendor. What we found and heard from all of our large suppliers is they've prioritized their core products, but it's left us with a shortage of some unique products, clear coats, oil based products, anything with solvents. And

23:20
speaking of shortages, let me ask you about the labor market do you have enough people to hire to do the painting that you can do with the paint that you have

23:29
we have been very fortunate we've actually doubled our our team. We have not seen that on our end however, again with the paint shortages, we've seen it on on drivers delivering product inside the paint stores just people working behind the desk. So that's been another issue that just adds to the to the issues with the supply chain Have you had to raise pay we've certainly raised pay to keep our staff well trained to bring people in some people are getting very significant offers out there from other companies with many many different types of bonuses to sign on. Heavy, heavy long vacation times to start and that's that's been hard for we're pretty much a small business.

24:21
When you say you've doubled your staff, how many does that give you now?

24:24
We are about 3030 painters we've added another project manager and we've added a Operations Manager finally

24:33
well that's good right it's got to take some load off you as the as the guy in charge

24:37
that's my goal that's my goal.

24:41
How How long do you expect this lasts Mr. Mana?

24:45
I actually talked to actually some of the vendors before we hopped on here today and they feel that they're they're very well equipped for again the the core products. They were all hoping that demand was going to Lesson and it would give them some time to catch up. That just has not happened. It hasn't happened on our end either. demands have been been strong for us since the pandemic started, they do still feel it's going to be a certain amount of time for for all the other products that we do use as far as specially epoxy. That's been an issue.

25:21
As far as you're concerned, though, I mean, just on that whole, you know, you guys have been busy since the pandemic that's gonna keep on going for you. You're you're expecting that.

25:30
We do expect it. We know we, our company in particular, we're, we're very aggressive. I tried to stay on top of the market facility and commercial work has just opened up and it feels like people are spending money for sure.

25:45
Ryan Amato, he runs and owns random auto painting at Easton, Pennsylvania. just remodeled. Thanks for your time sir. I appreciate it.

25:51
You're welcome anytime.

26:14
Final note on the way out today, not so much a marketplace angle as a Hey, be careful out there would your angle the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration released traffic fatality figures for the second quarter of the year today That's April to June off that is to say down almost 5% From a year earlier. Still though, more than 10,000 people killed in car crashes in that period. It is though the first decline and traffic deaths after seven quarters more than a year and a half of rising fatalities that started just about when the pandemic did.

27:06
All right, we gotta go here, though, is your moment of economic context. I wanted to pull this out. So you all heard it instead of just sticking in the numbers, which my theory is nobody listens to the very end. But you know, maybe that's just me anyway. The yield on the 10 year treasury note today. That's basically the interest rate right? closed at 3.489%. On this Monday, that is the highest the 10 year yield has been in a decade. Our daily production team includes Aneesa mean Andy Corbin Richard Cunningham, Nicholas Graham, real unhorsed Sarah Leeson, Sean McHenry and Daisy velocio Sankar result we will see you tomorrow everybody this is a pm

28:05
a Philadelphia today was sentenced to 22 years in prison and fined $100,000 This was just unbelievable. You got to understand the genius and Larry. Nobody was doing coke. At this point. No one

28:15
could believe that this highly educated young handsome man was this Ken pin drug dealer.

28:22
This is wolves among us. The Larry Levitt story, a documentary podcast from C 13 originals a cadence 13 Studio. Listen now on the Odyssey app or wherever you get your podcasts