2024/4/18 投資ネタ

アジア時間
MESTER FROM FED: MORE INFORMATION NEEDED BEFORE CONFIRMING 2% INFLATION SUSTAINABILITY
FED'S BOWMAN: INFLATION PROGRESS SLOWS AND POSSIBLY HALTS
ECB VASLE: DEPOSIT RATE 'MUCH CLOSER' TO 3% WITHOUT DISINFLATION PLAN
BREAKING: AUSTRALIAN EMPLOYMENT CHANGE ACTUAL -6.6K (FORECAST 10K, PREVIOUS 116.5K) $MACRO
BOJ BOARD MEMBER NOGUCHI SAYS IT IS ESSENTIAL FOR BOJ TO MAINTAIN ULTRA-LOOSE MONETARY POLICY AND SEEK BALANCE IN LABOR SUPPLY AND DEMAND
オラクル､約1.2兆円の対日投資を発表－クラウド＆ＡＩインフラ整備へ
TSMC beats first-quarter revenue and profit expectations on strong AI chip demand

米国寄り前
UG
#ZS /KeyBanc/OW：競争力に加え、チャネルチェックやサーベイからのフィードバックが良好。SASE、ファイヤーウォールのアップグレードが需要強い。
#LIN /Mizuho/Buy：直近の下落はバリュエーションを魅力的に。堅実な成長が見込め、EPSは収益性の高い商品へのシフトやバイバックで成長見込み。
#EBAY /MS/UW to OW/Eコマは8% CAGRで成長しているが、その中でEBAYはサイト全体のイノベーションとＡＩ機能に重点を置くことで、EBITマージンの拡大とGMVの成長拡大を見込める。
#SIX /B.Riley/Buy：FUNの合併は認められるし、過剰な資産の売却もスムーズに行く。
#SLG /BMO/OP：NYのオフィス需要は改善しており、リースも好調を維持し、空室率が改善している。
#ZM /Rosenblatt/Buy：ズームフォンのモメンタムの強さに加え、Avayaとのパートナーシップに代表されるようなチャネル戦略への再フォーカスが理由。
#JBLU /JPM/N：マーケットセンチメントの改善と来週の決算が予想を上回る可能性が高い。
DG
#MTCH /MS/EW：カタリストを提示する必要がある。革新に乏しく利用者減
#KNX /Loop/Hold：貨物需要がかなり少ないとはいえ、収益性がひどい。ボトムアウトはまだ先で、貨物需要が落ち着くまでは上昇見込めず。
#ETSY /MS/UW：中期的な成長カタリストにかけ、マージンは追加投資により減る見込み
#TSLA /DB/Hold：model2の生産停止によりFCFやマージンの改善が見込めず、DGSが成功しないと厳しい環境に
#BJ /Loop/Hold：消費者はインフレ圧力にさらされており、SSSが厳しくなる可能性。また、食品のマージンが思っているほど改善しない可能性。

決算
#NOK reports Q1 comparable EPS EUR 0.09 vs. EUR 0.06 last year ：As expected, the ongoing market weakness drove a 19% year-on-year constant currency decline in net sales in the first quarter. However, we have seen continued improvement in order intake, meaning we remain confident in a stronger second half and achieving our full year outlook.
#ALK reports Q1 adjusted EPS (92c), consensus ($1.05) ：Sees Q2 capacity up 5%-7%.
#DHI reports Q2 EPS $3.52, consensus $3.06 ：Reports Q2 revenue $9.1B, consensus $8.27B, Although inflation and mortgage interest rates remain elevated, our net sales orders increased 46% from the first quarter and 14% from the prior year quarter, as the supply of both new and existing homes at affordable price points is still limited, and demographics supporting housing demand continue to be favorable.
#KEY reports Q1 EPS 20c, consensus 22c：Net charge-offs and nonperforming loans remained low and below their historical averages.sees FY24 NII down 2%-5% vs. FY23
#CMA reports Q1 EPS $1.29, consensus $1.11 ：We experienced ongoing, expected credit normalization, while net charge-offs of 10 basis points continued to be historically low.
#GPC reports Q1 adjusted EPS $2.22, consensus $2.16： In Industrial, sales decreased low-single-digits, in-line with our expectations, as we were up against our most difficult comparative period for the year. In Automotive, the actions taken in our U.S. Automotive business are gaining traction, and we are encouraged by the sequential improvement in performance. This improvement, coupled with the solid performance of our other businesses, is reflected in our reaffirmed sales growth and improved earnings outlook for 2024."
#BX reports Q1 adjusted EPS $1.11, consensus 96c
：strong first-quarter results, highlighted by accelerating momentum in our private credit and private wealth businesses
#ALLY reports Q1 adjusted EPS 45c, consensus 33c ：Consumer originations totaled nearly $10B with 40% of retail auto volume coming from our highest credit quality tier, positioning us for very attractive risk-adjusted returns going forward. Within Insurance, earned premiums of $349M were also a record, and our comprehensive product suite resulted in new OEM relationships that will drive continued momentum in fee revenue."
#MAN reports Q1 adjusted EPS 94c, consensus 91c ：Employers in North America and Europe remain cautious as they wait for signs that the economic environment is on a sustainable path of improvement. In some of those markets demand for staffing and permanent recruitment stabilized at lower levels, while demand across Latin America and Asia Pacific Middle East remained solid

マクロ・債券
(米国)
Initial Jobless Claims at 212K, (Est. 215K)
Continuing Jobless Claims at 1812K, (Est. 1817K)
Mar. Philadelphia Fed Mfg. Index at 15.5 (Est. 1.5)
Philly Fed Business Conditions at 34.3
(欧州)
ECB'S DE GUINDOS: INFLATION HAS FALLEN FURTHER THIS YEAR AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DECLINING IN THE MEDIUM TERM, BUT AT A SLOWER PACE.
EUROZONE CONSTRUCTION OUTPUT MOM ACTUAL 1.8% (FORECAST -, PREVIOUS 0.48%) $MACRO
EasyJet says travel boom to continue despite hit from Middle East conflict
EU new car registrations down 5.2% in March
ECB'S NAGEL: WE CAN'T RULE OUT SMALL REBOUNDS IN INFLATION IN GERMANY IN SOME MONTHS THIS YEAR.
ECB'S KNOT: PROJECTIONS ARE CLEAR OF MOVING TOWARD 2% TARGET.
ECB'S VILLEROY: AFTER THE FIRST RATE CUT, WE WILL MONITOR INFLATION DATA.
(その他地域)
Bank of England to cut rates in May, Morgan Stanley

(コモディティ)
Iran is exporting more oil than at any time for the past six years, selling an average of 1.56mn barrels a day during the first three months of the year, almost all of it to China.
(その他)
Large retirement funds are pulling cash from stocks and putting it into bonds to de-risk and lock in higher yields. Goldman Sachs analysts estimate that pensions will unload $325 billion in stocks this year, up from $191 billion in 2023.

引け後
US EXISTING HOME SALES ACTUAL 4.19M (FORECAST 4.2M, PREVIOUS 4.38M) $MACRO
US EXISTING HOME SALES CHANGE ACTUAL -4.3% (FORECAST -4.11%, PREVIOUS 9.5%) $MACRO
US LEADING INDEX CHANGE MOM ACTUAL -0.3% (FORECAST -0.1%, PREVIOUS 0.1%) $MACRO

Phila Fed 15.5 (est 2.0, last 3.2)
New Orders 12.2 (last 5.4)
Employment -10.7 (-9.6)
Inventories -8.9 (4.4)
Price Paid 23.0 (3.7)
Avg Workweek -18.7 (-0.2)
6M:
Index 34.3 (38.6)
New Orders 42.8 (49.9)
Employment 12.8 (5.8)
Price Paid 54.5 (38.0)

FED'S WILLIAMS: IF DATA CALLED FOR HIGHER RATES, THE FED WOULD HIKE.
FED'S BOSTIC: WE WON'T BE ABLE TO REDUCE RATES UNTIL TOWARDS END OF THE YEAR.

ECB'S DE GUINDOS: INFLATION HAS FALLEN FURTHER THIS YEAR AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DECLINING IN THE MEDIUM TERM, BUT AT A SLOWER PACE.
ECB'S NAGEL: WE CAN'T RULE OUT SMALL REBOUNDS IN INFLATION IN GERMANY IN SOME MONTHS THIS YEAR.
ECB'S KNOT: PROJECTIONS ARE CLEAR OF MOVING TOWARD 2% TARGET.
ECB'S VILLEROY: BARRING MAJOR SURPRISE WE SHOULD CUT RATES IN NEXT MEETING
ECB'S SIMKUS: ONLY A HUGE SURPRISE WOULD DERAIL A JUNE CUT. - CNBC
ECB'S KAZAKS: THE PATH FOR RATES IS DOWN.
ECB'S HOLZMANN: IF THE FED DOESN'T CUT, I CAN'T SEE 3-4 ECB CUTS THIS YEAR.
ECB'S REHN: INFLATION IS CONVERGING TOWARDS THE ECB’S 2% TARGET.
ECB'S PANETTA: DISINFLATION IS ADVANCED AND IS CONTINUING. THE ECB WILL CONSIDER THE LEVEL OF RESTRICTION.

BOE'S GREENE: DEMAND IN THE UK IS ALSO RELATIVELY WEAK.
BOJ'S GOVERNOR UEDA: THERE IS CHANCE WEAK YEN MAY AFFECT TREND INFLATION AND IF SO COULD LEAD TO POLICY SHIFT.

Copper deficits have risen to 4.48% already in Q1, up from 3.54% last year and 2.96% the year prior.