2024/7/24 投資ネタ

UG
#TSLA Baird Reiterates Outperform Rating, PT $260
-押し目買い推奨
--短期的なﾏｰｼﾞﾝの弱さとﾘｽﾄﾗでの費用増
-ｴﾈﾙｷﾞｰ部門と排ｶﾞｽｸﾚｼﾞｯﾄで相殺可能
-ﾛﾎﾞﾀｸｼｰと新ﾓﾃﾞﾙに問題なし
#EL upgraded to Outperform from Sector Perform at RBC Capital at 131
-EPSと投資家ｾﾝﾁﾒﾝﾄはﾎﾞﾄﾑｱｳﾄ
-ﾏｰｼﾞﾝの拡大余地が大きい
-中国主導で売上の回復はやや遅い
#AKAM upgraded to Hold from Reduce at HSBC

#SPOT upgraded to Buy from Hold at DZ Bank
#LMT upgraded to Buy from Hold at TD Cowen at 560
-Q2好決算
-F24の納入再開で5%売上成長の不確実性減少
-10/20bpのﾏｰｼﾞﾝ改善
-2026までCF改善

DG
#ULTA Piper Sandler Downgrades to Neutral, Lowers PT to $404 from $494
-ﾏｰｼﾞﾝ悪化懸念
--競争激化/販促増加
#TSLA Wells Fargo Reiterates Underweight Rating with PT of $120
-質の低い決算
--EV Credit有でも未達
#TFC downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Citi at 47
-FY25/26のｶﾞｲﾀﾞﾝｽが予想以下
--NIIの見通しもなし
#CNC downgraded to Hold from Buy at Jefferies at 69
-ﾒﾃﾞｨｹｲﾄﾞ関連のﾃﾞｰﾀが悪い
--2HのMLRの見通しが舞い可能性
-MAの収益性回復も遅い
#CL downgraded to Hold from Buy at Jefferies at 95
#PG downgraded to Hold from Buy at Jefferies at 175
-米の価格弾力性の悪化
-原材料コスト上昇
#ARE downgraded to Neutral from Outperform at Wedbush at 130
-ﾗｲﾌｻｲｴﾝｽ関連の過剰供給が落ち着くまでは様子見
#GM downgraded to Equal Weight from Overweight at Morgan Stanley at 47
-価格競争圧力/EVと中国の弱さ
-ｺｽﾄｶｯﾄと運営でEPS身長もﾊﾞﾘｭｴｰｼｮﾝが高い
#TSLA downgrades Tesla to Neutral on valuation after 70% rally at 245
#TSLA downgraded to Neutral from Buy at New Street
-ﾊﾞﾘｭｴｰｼｮﾝ
-ﾏｰｼﾞﾝ回復には時間を要する
-短期的なｶﾀﾘｽﾄ不在
#GPC removed from 'Tactical Underperform' list at Evercore ISI
-Q2 SSSの減少が鈍化
-ﾏｰｼﾞﾝは悪化
#PII downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Longbow

earnings
#TMO Thermo Fisher Scientific beats top-line and bottom-line estimates; raises FY24 outlook - SA
〇:Q2売上・EPS/FY24EPS(raised)
×:FY24売上(raised)
#T
-:Q2EPS・EBITDA/FY24FCF・EPS
×:Q2売上/FY24資本支出
-携帯加入者数が予想以上
--解約率も低い
--ﾈｯﾄに携帯を付帯させる人増加
#BSX
〇:Q2売上・EPS/FY24売上・EPS(raised)
×:
-成長鈍化の可能性
-心臓関連機器が牽引
#IP
〇:2Q売上・EPS
×:2QFCF
-2Qはﾌﾟﾗｲｼﾝｸﾞと季節的な需要の強さが牽引
-3Qは環境悪化
#FI
〇:2QEPS/FY24EPS(raised)
×:2Q売上
-SSS +18% vs +15.9%e
-AIを使って事業者の売上改善をｻﾎﾟｰﾄ
#NEE
△:Q2EPS
×:Q2売上/FY24EPS
-3000MWの再ｴﾈ/ｽﾄﾚｰｼﾞﾊﾞｯｸﾛｸﾞ追加
--ﾃﾞｰﾀｾﾝﾀｰ需要
#LW Lamb Weston (LW) Misses Q4 EPS by 48c, provides guidance - SI
×:Q4売上・EPS・EBITDA/FY25売上・EBITDA
-price/mixが予想以下
--ﾎﾞﾘｭｰﾑ 北米 -7%/海外 -9%
--ﾏｰｹｯﾄｼｪｱ喪失/ﾚｽﾄﾗﾝの客足減

#CMG
〇:Q2売上・EPS・ﾏｰｼﾞﾝ
-SSS +11.1% vs 9.2%e
--客足 +8.7%
--今年の値上げの予定は無し
-Traffic Increase: +8.7%
-ﾏｰｼﾞﾝへの圧力はあと2Qは続く
--ｱﾎﾞｶﾞﾄﾞ/乳製品価格上昇
#KNX
×:Q2売上・EPS/3Q・4QEPS
Trucking Revenue $1.26 billion, estimate $1.27 billion
Logistics revenue $131.7 million, estimate $129.2 million
Intermodal revenue $97.5 million, estimate $96.7 million
LTL revenue $306.5 million, estimate $291.3 million
-倉庫/ｲﾝﾀｰﾓﾀﾞﾙ共に単価は予想以上
-市況はいまだ改善せず
#F
×:Q2EPS・EBITDA・ﾏｰｼﾞﾝ/FY24EBIT
-製品保証関連費の上昇
-次世代EVは黒字
--現状一台当たり$44kの損失
--需要減による販促激化
#NOW
〇:Q2売上・EPS/FY24ｻﾌﾞｽｸﾘﾌﾟｼｮﾝ
-GenAIの貢献が予想以上
--1bln超のﾊﾟｲﾌﾟﾗｲﾝ獲得
#LVS
×:Q2売上・EBITDA
-ﾏｶｵは回復中だが弱いまま
#ORLY
×:Q2売上・EPS・ﾏｰｼﾞﾝ/FY24売上・EPS(lowered)
-SSS +2.3% vs +3.1%e
--4/5月に予想以上に鈍化し、6月に回復
#WHR
〇:Q2売上/FY24FCF(lowered)
△:Q2EPS
×:Q2EBIT/FY24EPS(lowered)
-ﾋﾞｯｸﾞﾁｹｯﾄの需要が弱いまま
#IBM
〇:Q2売上・EPS
-Software Revenue: $6.74B (Est. $6.51B); UP +7.1% YoY
-Consulting Revenue: $5.18B (Est. $5.31B); DOWN -0.9% YoY
-Infrastructure Revenue: $3.6B; UP +0.7% YoY
-AI関連の受注が2Bを超える
--75%はｺﾝｻﾙ、残りがｿﾌﾄ
#NEM
〇:Q2売上・EPS・EBITDA
-金価格・出荷共に堅調
#EW
〇:Q2EPS・ﾏｰｼﾞﾝ
×:Q2売上
#TER
〇:Q2売上・EPS
×:FY24売上・EPS
-AI需要増
#RHI
×:Q2売上・EPS

個別株
#MU #Samsung Samsung's HBM3 chips cleared by Nvidia for use in its processors, Reuters says
#BAV
—Increases quarterly dividend by ~8% to $0.26
—Authorizes $25B buyback program

TP関連
#AAPL Barclays Raises PT to $187, Keeps Underweight Rating, citing 'less scope for upside.'
-Iphone/Mac/ｻｰﾋﾞｽ期待
-FY25は9%の売上成長見込
-ﾊﾞﾘｭｴｰｼｮﾝは高すぎ
#AAPL price target raised to $265 from $245 at JPMorgan
-FY25からAIによる買替ｻｲｸﾙ促進が証明されるはず
#GOOG PT raised by several firms
-AIへの投資のﾘﾀｰﾝは現状mix
--検索では効果権限/ｸﾗｳﾄﾞではまだ(1H25以降)
-FY25/26の設備投資増加懸念が重石

-広告+14%YoY/ｸﾗｳﾄﾞ+29%YoYで加速/ﾏｰｼﾞﾝ310bp拡大
-AIによる効果は出ており、ﾏｰｼﾞﾝ拡大継続に貢献
#TSLA PT mixed
-自動車のﾏｰｼﾞﾝが弱い
--販売台数増も販促が重たい
-ﾏｰｼﾞﾝの織込みが進めば、10月に向けた妙味有
-自動運転の完全導入には数年要する見込み
vs
-ｲｰﾛﾝを信じろ
--FSDがうまくいけば全く問題ない
#ENPH PT mixed
-在庫整理の進展
-ﾊﾞｯﾃﾘｰの売上が予想以上
--3Qも太陽光ﾊﾟﾈﾙの弱さを補える
-3Qのｶﾞｲﾀﾞﾝｽの弱さは懸念
--non-CA STのﾄﾚﾝﾄﾞが弱い
#DHR price target raised to $285 from $270 at Barclays
-ﾊﾞｲｵﾌﾟﾛｾｼﾝｸﾞは堅調
#HCA price target raised to $396 from $376 at Barclays
-長期的に患者数が二桁成長
--複数の証拠が需要の強さを示唆
-ﾏｰｼﾞﾝもよい
#DLR price target raised to $130 from $123 at Barclays
-新規受注、更新レート、新ﾘｰｽﾚｰﾄ、ﾊﾟｲﾌﾟﾗｲﾝを反映
#LOGI price target raised to $105 from $98 at Barclays
-FY25の見通し引上げで堅調
#PHM price target raised by several firms
-7月の客足堅調
-Q2のﾏｰｼﾞﾝ強い
--ｲﾝｾﾝﾃｨﾌﾞを減らす
-2Hのﾏｰｼﾞﾝ/受注は地域によっては弱い
--FL/TXの不透明性は懸念
#SAP price target raised to EUR 217 from EUR 215 at Barclays
-ｸﾗｳﾄﾞの強さとｺｽﾄｶｯﾄを両立
#STX price target raised to $95 from $80 at Barclays
-ﾏｰｼﾞﾝ拡大継続
-大容量NANDのﾌｧﾝﾀﾞﾒ改善継続
--AIの恩恵も出始める
--ｸﾗｳﾄﾞ向け
-HAMRについてはまだ進展なし
#SHW price target raised by several firms
-経営力で10%EPS改善
-需要は鈍いまま
-欧米で建築塗装ｼｪｱ拡大
#TXN price target raised by several firms
-3月のﾎﾞﾄﾑｱｳﾄを確認する内容
--家電の回復/資本財・自動車は遅い
--中国も回復
-支出一巡の兆し
-減価償却はｶﾞｲﾀﾞﾝｽ下限
#UPS price target lowered to $120 from $145 at Barclays
-Q2の弱さとｶﾞｲﾀﾞﾝｽ引下げは見通しに懸念
--ﾎﾞﾘｭｰﾑ優先の姿勢=price/mix悪化懸念
-2Hは値上げ寄与の可能性
-ﾏｰｼﾞﾝ見通しは楽観的すぎる可能性
-人件費増も重石
#GE price target raised to $205 from $192 at Wells Fargo
-2Hに設備投資予定も下振れ可能性有
#GM price target raised to $34 from $32 at Wells Fargo
-FY24ｶﾞｲﾀﾞﾝｽ引上げ
--期待値高い分調整入る
--2HのEBITは2.5B悪化見込み
---値下げ/EV競争激化/ｺｽﾄ悪化
#V price target lowered by several firms
-2Q連続の10%成長
-7月以降の鈍化が懸念点
#PCAR price target lowered to $115 from $135 at JPMorgan
-ﾏｰｼﾞﾝ低迷継続
#KO price target raised to $73 from $70 at Wells Fargo
-ﾌﾟﾗｲｼﾝｸﾞ/ﾎﾞﾘｭｰﾑ増/ﾏｰｼﾞﾝ拡大
#LMT price target raised to $525 from $483 at Wells Fargo
-F35の納入再開がﾎﾟｼﾞﾃｨﾌﾞ
-ﾏｰｼﾞﾝの見通しも保守的
#RCL #CCL #NCLH price target raised at JPMorgan
-ﾁｬﾈﾙﾁｪｯｸ:需要は強いまま
#PII price target lowered to $85 from $95 at Baird-
-ｶﾞｲﾀﾞﾝｽｶｯﾄ
--ﾃﾞｨｰﾗｰの在庫整理と販促
-利下げまで在庫積み増しの可能性低い
#BBWI price target lowered to $40 from $48 at Wells Fargo
-Q2の見通し引下げ
--ﾁｬﾈﾙﾁｪｯｸ:ﾎﾞﾄﾑｱｳﾄはまだ先
#ANET price target raised to $390 from $340 at Wells Fargo
-AIﾈｯﾄﾜｰｸのｱｯﾌﾟｻｲﾄﾞ
-non-AI関連の10%成長
#NXPI price target lowered to $310 from $330 at TD Cowen
-回復速度が鈍い
#SLG price target raised to $75 from $58 at Piper Sandler
-Park Avenueの需要が強い
--Midtown集中が功を奏す
#FCX price target lowered to $53 from $54 at Raymond James
-Grasbergの訴訟リスク

マクロ・債券
(米国)
Ex-NY Fed's Bill Dudley: "I’ve long been in the 'higher for longer' camp...The facts have changed, so I’ve changed my mind. The Fed should cut, preferably at next week’s policy-making meeting.
Redfin reports 64.7% of home listings have been on the market for over a month, up from 59.6% last year."
US S&P COMPOSITE PMI FLASH ACTUAL 55.0 (FORECAST 54.2, PREVIOUS 54.8)
US S&P MANUFACTURING PMI FLASH ACTUAL 49.5 (FORECAST 51.6, PREVIOUS 51.6)
US NEW HOME SALES CHANGE MOM ACTUAL -0.6% (FORECAST 3.4%, PREVIOUS -11.3%)
(欧州)
FRENCH SERVICES PMI FLASH ACTUAL 50.7 (FORECAST 49.7, PREVIOUS 49.6)
FRENCH MANUFACTURING PMI FLASH ACTUAL 44.1 (FORECAST 45.9, PREVIOUS 45.4)
GERMAN SERVICE PMI FLASH ACTUAL 52.0 (FORECAST 53.3, PREVIOUS 53.1)
GERMAN MANUFACTURING PMI FLASH ACTUAL 42.6 (FORECAST 44, PREVIOUS 43.5)
EUROZONE SERVICES PMI FLASH ACTUAL 51.9 (FORECAST 52.9, PREVIOUS 52.8)
EUROZONE MANUFACTURING PMI FLASH ACTUAL 45.6 (FORECAST 46.1, PREVIOUS 45.8)
(その他)
AUSTRALIAN SERVICES PMI FLASH ACTUAL 50.8 (FORECAST -, PREVIOUS 51.2)
AUSTRALIAN MANUFACTURING PMI FLASH ACTUAL 47.4 (FORECAST -, PREVIOUS 47.2)
JAPANESE MFG PMI FLASH ACTUAL 49.2 (FORECAST -, PREVIOUS 50.0)
JIBUN BANK JAPAN JULY SERVICES PMI: 53.9
UK MANUFACTURING PMI FLASH ACTUAL 51.8 (FORECAST 51, PREVIOUS 50.9)
UK SERVICES PMI FLASH ACTUAL 52.4 (FORECAST 52.5, PREVIOUS 52.1)
"The renewed hiring trend could also add to pay pressures, sustaining some stickiness of inflation in the coming months."
The Bank of Japan is likely to weigh the possibility of raising interest rates at its meeting next week and may unveil a plan to roughly halve bond purchases in the coming years.
*カナダ中銀、翌日物貸出金利を4.50％に引き下げ

コモ
EIA CRUDE OIL INVENTORIES ACTUAL -3.741M (FORECAST -2.837M, PREVIOUS -4.870M) $MACRO