2024/5/30 投資ネタ

UG
#PYPL upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Mizuho at 90
-Fastlaneは1.43trioのEｺﾏのTAMにより1-1.5blnの売上に成長する可能性
-PYPLﾌﾞﾗﾝﾄﾞの決裁数も安定しだしている
-割安
#DDOG upgraded to Buy from Neutral at BofA at 155
-ﾌﾟﾗｯﾄﾌｫｰﾑが魅力的でｺｽﾄ削減を目論む企業に刺さる
-rule of 40+を維持
#AMKBY upgraded to Buy from Hold at Nordea
-ｺﾝﾃﾅﾚｰﾄは高止まりが続く
#GLW upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at JPMorgan at 43
-ﾃﾞｨｽﾌﾟﾚｰ/光学事業はｱｯﾌﾟｻｲｸﾙに入り大きなEPSｱｯﾌﾟｻｲﾄﾞ有
-2026まで7%成長かつﾏｰｼﾞﾝ拡大
#OKTA upgraded to Outperform from In Line at Evercore ISI at 122
-不祥事の悪影響を払拭するQ1決算
-顧客との対話の感触もよく見通しが明るい
#AI upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at Northland at 35
-ｻﾌﾞｽｸ成長が41%と使用量ﾍﾞｰｽの料金体系以降の懸念払拭
-AI関連の需要が強く、このまま成長可能

DG
#PATH downgraded to Sector Weight from many firms
-FY25のARRg/CFgが大きく引下げ
--ﾏｸﾛ、執行、経営交代による混乱の可能性
-CEO交代により成長復帰までの時間が相当かかる
#FSLR downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Mizuho at 274
-ﾊﾞﾘｭｴｰｼｮﾝ
--ﾌﾟﾗｲｼﾝｸﾞﾊﾟﾜｰの強さを織込済
-ｱｯﾌﾟｻｲﾄﾞには追加値上げや向上新設要
#CAVA downgraded to Neutral by Piper Sandler at 92
-ﾊﾞﾘｭｴｰｼｮﾝ
-長期的成長は問題なし

earnings
#DG Earnings Were Good but Trouble Was Hiding in Plain Sight
-(ﾋﾞｰﾄ)Q1EPS
-(ｲﾝﾗｲﾝ)Q1売上
-(ﾐｽ)Q2EPSg/FY24EPSg
-SSS +2.4%(客足+4%/単価 -1.6%):食品等の消費財+
-消費ﾄﾚﾝﾄﾞ減速/ﾏｰｼﾞﾝ悪化見通し
--窃盗/販促継続/price mix(ﾌﾟﾗｲﾍﾞｰﾄﾗﾍﾞﾙ+)
#BBY stock rises after profit beats expectations, while revenue and same-store sales fall more than forecast
-(ﾋﾞｰﾄ)Q1EPS
-(ﾐｽ)Q1売上・SSS/FY25売上g/EPSg
-SSS -6.1%/Q2 SSSg -3%/FY25 SSSg -3% to 0%
-販促環境は激化
-PCの売上が改善(AI PCの予約が期待以上)
-需要減もﾎﾞﾄﾑｱｳﾄ(May to Dateがｶﾞｲﾀﾞﾝｽ以上)
#HRL misses on sales as ‘whole-bird turkeys’ see significant weakness
-(ﾋﾞｰﾄ)FY24売上g/EPSg(raised)
-(ﾐｽ)Q2売上・EPS
-ﾀｰｷｰ需要/価格減が加工食品の強さを相殺
-ｺｽﾄｶｯﾄでﾏｰｼﾞﾝは改善
#FL rallies as Q1 profit beats street view, upbeat guidance reaffirmed
-(ﾋﾞｰﾄ)Q1EPS(支出の認識/ｺｽﾄｶｯﾄ)/FY24EPSg
-(ﾐｽ)Q1売上
-SSS -1.8%:期を追うごとに改善
--割引の減少/単価の上昇
-在庫 -5.6%
-夏に向けて新商品の用意有
-2HからはNKEの恩恵で成長に回帰
#KSS stock drops sharply as it swings to an unexpected loss and issues 2024 profit warning
-(ﾐｽ)Q1売上・EPS/FY24EPSg(売上g下方修正)
-SSS -4.4% (ｸﾘｱﾗﾝｽｾｰﾙ/季節モノ×/Sephoraは強い)
-ｸﾞﾛｽﾏｰｼﾞﾝは48bp改善
--在庫 -13%/輸送コスト減少
#COST beats profit and sales forecasts, but stock pulls back from record highs
-(ﾋﾞｰﾄ)Q3売上・EPS・SSS
-SSS +6.2%(客足+5.5%/単価+0.7%)
-新規会員 +7.8%/更新率 90.5%
-インフレ鈍化で裁量的支出が回復
#DELL earnings show fervent AI demand, but margin talk sends stock sliding
-(ﾋﾞｰﾄ)Q1売上・EPS/
-AIｻｰﾊﾞｰ:出荷YoY100%+/ﾊﾞｯｸﾛｸﾞ 30%+
-FY25のﾏｰｼﾞﾝは150bp悪化見込(ｺｽﾄｲﾝﾌﾚ(NAND/DRAM)/競争激化)
--ISGのﾏｰｼﾞﾝは売上増にも関わらず1%悪化
#ULTA Outshines Kohl’s Ugly Earnings, But Lower Outlook Disappoints
-(ﾋﾞｰﾄ)Q1EPS
-(ﾐｽ)Q1売上
-SSS +1.6%(客足+1.3%/単価 flat)
-FY24g売上/SSS/EPS/ﾏｰｼﾞﾝ引下げ
#MRVL display big AI revenue boost, but other areas still challenged
-(ﾋﾞｰﾄ)Q2売上g
-(ﾐｽ)Q1売上・EPS/Q2EPSg
-AIﾃﾞｰﾀｾﾝﾀｰは強いが他が弱い
-2Hには企業用ﾈｯﾄﾜｰｸ需要や通信ｲﾝﾌﾗ需要復活期待
#ZS rockets as upbeat earnings offer relief to cybersecurity sector
-(ﾋﾞｰﾄ)Q3売上・EPS・billing/FY24売上g・EPSg
#GPS jumps 23% as the retailer swings to profit and raises guidance
-(ﾋﾞｰﾄ)Q1売上・EPS・ｸﾞﾛｽﾏｰｼﾞﾝ
-FY24g売上・ﾏｰｼﾞﾝ・営業利益引上げ
-SSS +3%
-在庫縮小
#JWN fall after wider-than-expected first-quarter loss
-(ﾋﾞｰﾄ)Q1売上
-(ﾐｽ)Q1EPS/FY25EPSg
-SSS +3.8% Rack +7.9% vs Nordstrom +1.8%
-ｸﾞﾛｽﾏｰｼﾞﾝ225bp悪化
#S Earnings Beat Views, But Full-Year Revenue Outlook Lowered
-(ﾋﾞｰﾄ)Q1売上(大企業需要)・EPS
-(ﾐｽ)Q2売上g/FY25売上g
-ﾏｰｼﾞﾝ改善
-SMB企業の予算ｶｯﾄが重石

TP関連
#CRM price target lowered to $305 from $355 at Barclays
-顧客の予算管理の悪影響を受けている
--AI投資の増加でｿﾌﾄｳｪｱ投資が削減
-FY25は売上鈍化/限定的なﾏｰｼﾞﾝｱｯﾌﾟｻｲﾄﾞが限定的
vs
-ﾏｰｼﾞﾝはｱｯﾌﾟｻｲﾄﾞがあり、17%下落はやりすぎ
-短期的には逆風もﾊﾞﾘｭｴｰｼｮﾝが安い
#DKS price target raised by several firms
-FY24売上・EPSｱｯﾌﾟｻｲﾄﾞ有
--HoSの貢献が想定以上に大きい
--SSSが客足/単価両方で上昇
--Q2もﾓﾒﾝﾀﾑ継続
-ﾊﾞﾘｭｴｰｼｮﾝは高い vs ﾏﾙﾁﾌﾟﾙは他社対比低い
#HPQ price target raised by several firms
-Q2決算はほぼｲﾝﾗｲﾝだが、PC/ﾌﾟﾘﾝﾀｰが逆風下、執行能力を示す
-FY25に向けてAI PC/Windows10の買替需要でｱｯﾌﾟｻｲﾄﾞ有
-FY25に向けたｺｽﾄｶｯﾄも順調
#ANF price target raised by several firms
-SSS成長率の加速とﾏｰｼﾞﾝの強さ
-今後のﾏｸﾛｻｲﾄﾞからのﾌﾟﾚｯｼｬｰﾘｽｸ
-ﾊﾞﾘｭｴｰｼｮﾝはもう割高
#OKTA price target raised to $128 from $124 at BTIG
-cRPOも予想より強く、堅調なQ1決算
#AI price target mixed
-FY25gは強いが、ﾏｰｼﾞﾝ見通しは弱い
-売上期待は強いが、ﾊﾞﾘｭｴｰｼｮﾝが高すぎる
#AAP price target lowered to $63 from $70 at Truist
-FY24ｶﾞｲﾀﾞﾝｽ達成が不透明
-追加の投資でQ2は更に悪化見込み
-他社は投資増加で競争激化
-非効率なｻﾌﾟﾗｲﾁｪｰﾝ/消費者動向が重石
#AEO price target lowered to $18 from $19 at Morgan Stanley
-SG&A管理でﾚﾊﾞ改善期待がしぼむ

個別ネタ
#NVDA #AMD US IS REINING IN AI CHIP SALES TO MIDDLE EAST BY NVIDIA, AMD
#TSLA Exclusive: Tesla makes push to roll out advanced FSD self-driving in China - Reuters
#MRNA U.S. nears deal to fund Moderna's bird flu vaccine trial, FT reports
#PLTR wins $480M defense contract for AI system prototype - SA
#LRCX | U.S. COMMERCE DEPT. PROBES SOUTH KOREAN CHIP-EQUIPMENT MAKERS

マクロ・債券
(米国)
The $150,000 Housekeeper: Wage Inflation Kicks Into Second Gear
U.S. Q1 GDP (2nd Read) +1.3%, (Est. +1.3%)
Initial Jobless Claims at 219K, (Est. 218K)
Continuing Jobless Claims at 1,791K, (Est. 1,800K)
US WHOLESALE INVENTORIES MOM ADV. ACTUAL 0.2% (FORECAST 0.1%, PREVIOUS -0.4%)
US GDP PRICE INDEX ACTUAL 3% (FORECAST 3.1%, PREVIOUS 3.1%)
US CORE PCE PRICES ADVANCE ACTUAL 3.6% (FORECAST 3.7%, PREVIOUS 3.7%)
US PENDING HOME SALES CHANGE MOM ACTUAL -7.7% (FORECAST -1%, PREVIOUS 3.4% ,REVISION 3.6%)
(欧州)
EUROZONE UNEMPLOYMENT RATE ACTUAL 6.4% (FORECAST 6.5%, PREVIOUS 6.5%) $MACRO
EURO ZONE MAY CONSUMER INFLATION EXPECTATIONS 12.5 VS 11.6 IN APRIL - EU COMMISSION
EURO ZONE MAY PRODUCER PRICE EXPECTATIONS 6.4 VS REVISED 5.6 IN APRIL - EU COMMISSION.
(その他)

コモ
OPEC+ IS DISCUSSING EXTENDING SOME OIL OUTPUT CUTS EXPIRING IN 2024 INTO 2025, EXTENSION OF SOME CUTS INTO 2025 WILL LIKELY COME ON TOP OF VOLUNTARY CUTS EXTENSION INTO Q3-Q4 OF 2024 - THREE SOURCES.
HAMAS SAYS THEY ARE READY TO REACH 'COMPLETE AGREEMENT' INCLUDING COMPREHENSIVE HOSTAGES/PRISONERS EXCHANGE DEAL IF ISRAEL STOPS WAR ON GAZA