2024/8/14 投資ネタ

UG
#SBUX | Stifel Upgrades Starbucks to Buy, Raises PT to $110 from $80
#SBUX upgraded to Buy from Hold at Deutsche Bank at 118
#SBUX upgraded to Outperform from In Line at Evercore ISI
-新CEOの元処理能力/生産性/ﾃﾞｼﾞﾀﾙﾏｰｹﾃｨﾝｸﾞ改善期待
#CMG upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at Wedbush at 58
-CEO離脱後の経営陣の移行は問題なし
#JCI upgraded to Sector Perform on transition at RBC Capital at 69
-Elliottとの対話で経営陣後退
-ﾎﾟｰﾄﾌｫﾘｵも刷新
--ﾃﾞｰﾀｾﾝﾀｰ向けが魅力的な成長機会
#BALL upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at Baird
-EPS二けた成長期待
--自社株買いという、自己改善主導の改革
#IP upgraded to Buy from Hold at Argus
-2025に需要とﾌﾟﾗｲｼﾝｸﾞが改善
-まだ原材料費と低需要が重石
#SE upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at JPMorgan at 90
-主要3ﾋﾞｼﾞﾈｽがEPSに貢献
-Eｺﾏの収益性改善
--ｼｪｱ拡大/ﾃｲｸﾚｰﾄ上昇

DG
#INTU downgraded to Equal Weight from Overweight at Morgan Stanley at 685
-安定した成長がﾏﾙﾁﾌﾟﾙを正当化していた
-CK/Mailchimpの買収で不透明性増加
-値上げのしすぎでｼｪｱを失うﾘｽｸ
#EMR downgraded to Neutral from Overweight at JPMorgan at 115
-売上鈍化
-受注はｲﾝﾗｲﾝだが、ガイダンスが弱い
#LHX downgraded to Sector Perform from Outperform at RBC Capital at 240
-FY24の売上成長率が他社対比弱い
#HSY downgraded to Hold from Buy at Argus
-消費ｾﾝﾁﾒﾝﾄの重石は継続
-原材料上昇も重石

earnings
#VSCO
〇:Q2EPS・営業利益
-CEO交代

MS UG to N at 20
-2Q決算がよく、2H目標も達成可能
#CSCO
〇:Q4売上(YoY-10%)・EPS/Q1売上・EPS・ﾏｰｼﾞﾝ
×:FY25売上・EPS
Product: DOWN -15% YoY
Services: UP +6% YoY
Security: UP +81% YoY
Observability: UP +41% YoY
Networking: DOWN -28% YoY
-受注はDG成長
--在庫消化期間ほぼ終了
--企業のAI用ｲﾝﾌﾗ投資加速
-北米 -11%/EMEA -11%/APJC -6%
-ARR 29.6B +22%YoY
-7%人員削減

個別株
鴻海の売上高、拡大の見通し－４～６月は増収増益、ＡＩサーバー好調
Foxconn expects AI servers, which now make up over 40% of its server business, to continue boosting growth into Q4 and beyond.
#K Mars to announce Kellanova buyout at $83.50 per share, WSJ reports

TP関連
#TSLA Truist Securities Reiterates Hold Rating on $TSLA with PT $215

#HD price target mixed
-見通し期待は一度ﾘｾｯﾄ
--ｱｯﾌﾟｻｲﾄﾞの可能性は残している
-QTDの売上ﾄﾚﾝﾄﾞは期待よりも良さそう
-PRO向けにｼﾌﾄしており、secular growthを目指している
#LLY price target raised to $1,050 from $1,000 at Berenberg
-Mounharo/Zepboundの好成績とｻﾌﾟﾗｲ増加
#CMG | Stifel Reiterates Buy Rating on Chipotle with $70 PT Following CEO Departure
#CMG pullback on CEO exit a buying opportunity, says Deutsche Bank
-新CEOへの移行はﾘｽｸ
--内部の人材ﾌﾟｰﾙは豊富でｽﾑｰｽﾞな移行可能
-売上成長の半分以上は新店舗増設によるもの
-SSSも処理能力/ﾏｰｹﾃｨﾝｸﾞ/新商品などで成長
#CMG price target lowered to $62 from $74 at Baird
-CEO代謝は当面重石になる
#MO #PM price target raised at Barclays
-Q2決算でﾏﾙﾁﾌﾟﾙ引上げ
#BABA price target raised to $106 from $103 at BofA
-売上成長率6%YoYはｲﾝﾗｲﾝ
#WDAY price target lowered to $260 from $275 at Wells Fargo
-顧客ﾌｨｰﾄﾞﾊﾞｯｸはmix:ﾏｸﾛとGTMが重石
-9月のｲﾍﾞﾝﾄでﾏｰｼﾞﾝにﾌｫｰｶｽが当たればｶﾀﾘｽﾄに
#DG price target lowered to $155 from $167 at UBS
-ﾎﾞﾄﾑｱｳﾄを確認できるかが問題
#TGT price target lowered to $180 from $200 at Oppenheimer
-SSSはｶﾞｲﾀﾞﾝｽ下限見込み
--回復にはまだ時間を要する
#LYFT price target lowered to $13 from $19 at Roth MKM
-Q2のGBV/ｶﾞｲﾀﾞﾝｽの弱さ
-FY24ｶﾞｲﾀﾞﾝｽ据え置きだが達成可能性に疑問
#WFC price target lowered to $59 from $62 at Jefferies
-資産ｷｬｯﾌﾟが当面の焦点
-fee収益成長/ｺｽﾄｶｯﾄ/資本効率化は進展済
#ELF e.l.f. Beauty pullback since earnings report 'overdone,' says Jefferies
-20%下落でﾊﾞﾘｭｴｰｼｮﾝ魅力的に
-2HのEBITDAは加速見込み

マクロ・債券
(米国)
US MBA MORTGAGE APPLICATIONS ACTUAL 16.8% (FORECAST -, PREVIOUS 6.9%)
CPI 2.9% YoY, (Est. 3%)
CPI 0.2% MoM, (Est. 0.2%)
FED'S GOOLSBEE: I AM GROWING MORE CONCERNED ABOUT EMPLOYMENT.
(欧州)
DUTCH GDP QOQ PRELIM SA ACTUAL 1.0% (FORECAST 0.2%, PREVIOUS -0.5%)
EUROZONE GDP QOQ FLASH ESTIMATE ACTUAL 0.3% (FORECAST 0.3%, PREVIOUS 0.3%)
(その他)
JAPAN PM KISHIDA INTENDS NOT TO RUN FOR PARTY LEADER: KYODO
中国の未完工住宅、少なくとも4800万戸－不動産危機長期化の恐れ
NEW ZEALAND CASH RATE ACTUAL 5.25% (FORECAST 5.5%, PREVIOUS 5.50%)
UK CORE CPI YOY ACTUAL 3.3% (FORECAST 3.4%, PREVIOUS 3.5%)
This was a soft UK CPI print. Not just the sharp drop in services to 5.2% YoY. But also the breadth of services components rising vs. falling normalised further. BoE's assumption of sticky services CPI is waning fast. If this continues in Aug... can't rule out a Sep cut
コモ
The weakness in iron ore deepened after the world’s biggest steel producer warned that China’s steel industry is facing a crisis more serious than the downturns of 2008 and 2015, likening conditions to a “severe winter.”
EIA CRUDE OIL INVENTORIES ACTUAL 1.357M (FORECAST -2M, PREVIOUS -3.728M)