地方都市。 成長するビジネス、衰退するビジネス　どちらを選ぶ？

★日本中がゴーストタウン？日本沈没と言っても過言ではない。。

国内にいるときはできるだけ地方都市にいるようにしている。
東京にいると本当の意味での日本の経済が見えないからだ。
弊社の顧客の70％以上は地方都市の企業だからだ。

2020年以降のコロナ禍で再度47都道府県すべてを回り、あらゆる都市を訪問してきた。
今日も松山にいる。3日前は高知だった。
松山は人口51万人で四国最大の都市だ。

一番大きく変わったのは商店街と夜の街。
街に人がいない。

飲み屋街と言われる場所に人がいないのだ。
コロナ前には人であふれていた。

当時は「地方都市にこんなに人がいるのか？都会のおしゃれな業態持ってきたら行けそうね。」
みたいな話しをしてたし、ワタミ等の居酒屋も家賃や人件費の高い都心より地方都市で店舗
展開を進めていた。

今日も松山で夜の街を散策したけど、閉店してるかノーゲストかみたいなお店ばかり。
街の案内人にきいても、コロナ前は異次元の世界のようだと。当時は幻のようだと。
平日の夜は全く人が出てこない。
金曜日土曜日、祝前日はまだしも平日は本当に人が出てこない。

店舗経営側からするとそう言う印象だろう。

顧客側からするとこうだ。
会社に行かなくなって家でのテレワークが標準になった。
通勤の時間がなくなり時間を有効に使える。やりたいことができる。趣味の時間が増えた。
意味のない会合等々に出なくて良い。

以前の生活が非常識だったと思ってる。
毎日朝7時に起きて午前8時には会社に出社して、18時ころまで仕事して（もしくはずーーと残業）
そのあと毎日居酒屋で飲んで二次会はカラオケかキャバクラみたいな生活。
それで、毎日家に帰るのが午前様。。。

コロナで20時には家にいる生活が標準化された。
時間が自由になりそれも意外にいいもんだと思ってる。　

日本中の飲食店で夜の21時以降の客が一気に減ったと言われる。
以前のような生活様式には絶対に戻らないと言える。

東京や大阪はまだしも地方都市においては完全に期待薄だ。
日本中の街を回っていてそう思う。
政令指定都市はまだまし、それよりも人口の少ない都市ではどこもほぼ同じで上記のような状態だ。
様々な企画を興して夜の街に人を戻そうとしている活動には頭が下がる。
だが、下りのエスカレーターを必死で駆け上がるより、上りのエスカレーターに乗ったほうが成長できないだろうか？それがマーケットを見る目なんだろうと思う。

★地方都市の飲食企業の未来をどう考えるか？

飲食であれば昼の業態に変える、または異業種への参入か？
夜のアルコールビジネスの収益性は高すぎた。
昼のフードビジネスにくらべて夜のアルコールビジネスは利幅が大きかった。
ビールはまだしもカクテル類やサワー、焼酎割りの原価なんて本当に低い。
顧客が飲めば飲むほど店舗は儲かる。
ウーロンハイとか原価率10％くらいだ。（原価は40円くらい。売価400円として）

そんな業界から昼のフード業界へ参入できるのか？
ジレンマは起こるだろう。
こんなめんどくさい事やって単価も低く原価も高い、これだけしか利益でないのって、思うだろう。

それでも夜の飲食業界がシュリンクするなら、同じ飲食業界の派生ジャンルへの参入としてはやりやすい。
異業種への参入（戦う土俵を変える）も鍵だろうし、展開するエリアを拡張する（都心への展開、海外展開）も鍵だ。
それぞれ以下に記します。

★地方都市の顧客構造について

異業種へ参入するならどの土俵が良いかを分析しないといけない。
顧客構造は各都市の人口ピラミッドで見てみればすぐにわかる現実。
地方都市にいるのは、高校生までの男女と中高年以上の老人衆だ。

ここのビジネスを掘り当てないと地方都市ではやっていけない。

飲食ではなにか？
それ以外の業界ではなにか？

余談だが3日前、高知の帯屋町商店街で異常に外国人比率が高くてびっくりした。
商店街を歩く人の半分近くが外国人だった。言語で判断すると西洋系(英語、スペイン語）、ベトナム、台湾。etc
街の観光案内に聞くと、大型客船が港に入ったらしい。彼らは宿泊しない。
日中に街を見て夜に船に帰る。。。

★地方都市の顧客層の関心事

また地方都市の本屋に行くと良い。
ベストセラーが並んで掲示されている。
見るとほとんどが、資産運用か健康運動関連の本だ。
本屋に並ぶのも学習参考書や資産運用か健康運動関連の本ばかり。

高校生までの学生は資産運用はあまり考えない。
となると地方都市にすむボリュームゾーンに関心が高いのは健康＋運動ということにならないか？

弊社は支援している事業でもすこぶる順調に行ってるのが、健康関連事業であり
フィットネスだ。

少し古いデータだが、リクルート調べで高校生の男性が卒後湯したら一番通いたいのはフィットネスクラブ。

以前と違って物的な興味を持っていない。体を鍛えて周りに見てもらいたいというマズローで言うところの承認欲求だ。
知的な承認欲求というより、見た目の承認欲求。ただ服や時計ではない承認欲求。

高校生男子が多くいる地方都市では確実に流行るビジネスになるわけだ。

あと、ご老人の関心も健康。
食べるものに気をつけるという健康に対する志向が非常に強い。
ただ食事に気をつけただけでは健康にならないのも事実で、代謝も上げていかないといけない。
無理な運動は体を壊す。自分にあった適度な運動だ。
ウォーキングや軽いジョギングは最適だろうけど、一人で走るのは寂しい。
こういった老人の集会場のようになっているフィットネスクラブがある。

地方都市で流行らないわけがないだろうなといつも思ってみているが、開業から2〜3ヶ月で会員数が損益分岐点に達して黒字になっている。

地方都市の人口構造を分析して、あなたの都市にあうビジネスを紹介しています。
地方都市を分析して35年。23歳から日本中の人口20万人以上の街を全部見ています。
各地各地の地方都市の変遷も見てきています。
あなたの街で何ができるかミーティングしませんか？

また昼の街も様がわりしているのも事実。
地方都市の商店街の活性化は急務だなといつも思ってる。

全国で成功してる商店街があればすぐに見に行くので紹介してほしい。
地方都市で商店街を見るたびに悲しくなります。。。
「事件です。街に人がいません。。。」みたいな。。

お気軽にメールください。
atutiya@assentia-hd.com

Zoomで面談しましょう。

★展開するエリアを拡張する
これについてはまた別に記述します。
かれこれ、今まで12年間で日本の企業の海外進出支援を行い、現状26各国で250店舗近い海外展開を実現し、支援しております。
先月は2週間ほど、ベトナム→シンガポール→インドネシア→フィリピンを回りました。
9月は1ヶ月間オーストラリアで5都市を回ってマーケットを見てきました。
ASEAN、オーストラリアのマーケットは面白いです。

マニラやジャカルタで月商3000万円を超える日系の居酒屋がありました。
ベトナムには30店舗を超える日系のPIZZAがありました。
シンガポールには月商2500万円を超える日系ラーメン居酒屋がありました。
オーストラリアでは誰もが知ってる100店舗を超えるロール寿司のお店がありました。
またマニラには日本人顔負けの美味い大行列のラーメン屋がありました。
これらは残念ながら経営者は日本人ではありません。

コロナ前に比べマーケットは大きく変わっています。
お気軽にお問い合わせを！

こちらもお気軽にメールください。
atutiya@assentia-hd.com

Zoomで面談しましょう。

英語→
Rural cities. Growing or declining businesses: which will you choose?
*Ghost towns all over Japan? It is no exaggeration to say that Japan is sinking.
When I am in Japan, I try to stay in regional cities as much as possible.
This is because you can't really see the Japanese economy when you are in Tokyo.
More than 70% of our customers are companies in regional cities.
With the post-2020 Corona Disaster, I have visited all 47 prefectures again and visited every city.
Today we are in Matsuyama again; three days ago it was Kochi.
Matsuyama is the largest city in Shikoku with a population of 510,000.
The biggest change has been in the shopping streets and the nightlife.
There are no people on the streets.
There are no people in what is known as the drinking district.
In front of Corona, the streets were full of people.
At the time, I wondered if there were that many people in a provincial city. If we brought some fashionable urban businesses, we could go there."
Izakaya companies such as Watami were also expanding their shops in regional cities rather than in city centres, where rent and labour costs are high.
The same thing happened in Matsuyama today, where I went for a night stroll.
Today, too, I strolled through the nightlife in Matsuyama, but all the shops were either closed or had no guests.
A guide in town told me that the area in front of Corona was like a world in another dimension. They said it was like a phantom back then.
On weekday nights, no one comes out at all.
On Fridays, Saturdays and eve of public holidays, people don't come out on weekdays, but not really on weeknights.
That's the impression from the shop management side.
From the customers' point of view, it is like this.
I don't go to the office anymore and teleworking at home has become the norm.
I can use my time more effectively because I don't have to commute anymore. I can do what I want to do. I have more time for hobbies.
I don't have to attend meaningless meetings etc.
I think my old life was insane.
I woke up at 7am every day, went to work at 8am, worked until around 6pm (or worked overtime all the time).
After that, I drank at an izakaya every day, and the after-party was either karaoke or a cabaret club.
So I go home in the morning every day.
With Corona, I'm home by 8pm, which has become the norm.
I have more free time and I think that's surprisingly good.　
It is said that in restaurants all over Japan, the number of customers after 9pm has dropped dramatically.
I can say that we will never go back to the way of life we had before.
In Tokyo and Osaka, but in regional cities, it is completely unlikely.
I think so when I visit cities all over Japan.
Government-designated cities are still better off, but in cities with smaller populations, the situation is almost the same as above.
I bow down to the activities that are trying to bring people back to the streets at night by organising various projects.
But wouldn't it be better to grow up the escalator going up rather than struggling up the escalator going down? I think that is the way to look at the market.
*How do you think about the future of food and beverage companies in regional cities?
If it is food and beverage, change to daytime business or enter a different industry?
The profitability of the night alcohol business was too high.
Compared to the daytime food business, the night-time alcohol business had higher margins.
The cost of beer is still very low, but the cost of cocktails, sours and shochu splits is really low.
The more customers drank, the more money the shops made.
The cost ratio of oolong tea is about 10%. (The cost is about 40 yen. (Assuming a selling price of 400 yen).
Can you enter the lunchtime food industry from such an industry?
A dilemma will arise.
You would think that such a hassle-free process with a low unit price and high cost of sales would only be so profitable.
Even so, if the night food industry is shrinking, it is easy to enter a derivative genre of the same food and drink industry.
Entering a different industry (changing the playing field) is also key, as is expanding the area of operation (into city centres, overseas expansion).
Each of these is described below.
*The customer structure in regional cities
If you want to enter a different industry, you need to analyse which is the best field.
The customer structure is a reality that can be easily understood by looking at the population pyramid of each city.
In local cities, it is men and women up to high school age and elderly people of middle age and above.
If you don't dig into the business here, you won't make it in the regional cities.
What is it in food and beverage?
What in other industries?
As an aside, three days ago I was surprised to see an unusually high percentage of foreigners in the Obiyacho shopping arcade in Kochi.
Nearly half of the people walking along the shopping street were foreigners. Judging by the languages spoken, they were Westerners (English, Spanish), Vietnamese, Taiwanese, etc.
A tourist guide in town told me that a large cruise ship had entered the harbour. They do not stay overnight.
They see the city during the day and return to the ship at night.
*Customer interests in local cities.
You can also visit a bookshop in a local city.
You can also go to a bookshop in a local city and see bestsellers displayed side by side.
Most of them are books on asset management or health and exercise.
The bookshops are also lined with study reference books and books on asset management or health and exercise.
Students up to high school age do not think much about asset management.
If this is the case, doesn't this mean that health and exercise are of high interest to the volume zone living in regional cities?
The health and fitness business is one of the businesses we support and is doing very well.
Fitness.
The data is a bit old, but according to a Recruit survey, high school males would most like to go to a fitness club if they had a hot water after graduation.
fitness clubs. Unlike before, they are not interested in material things. It's what Maslow calls a need for approval, to work out and be seen around.
Not so much an intellectual need for approval, but a need for approval of how you look. A need for approval that is not just clothes or a watch.
So it's definitely going to be a popular business in the local cities where there are a lot of high school boys.
Also, the elderly are also interested in health.
They have a very strong orientation towards health, being careful about what they eat.
It is also true that just being careful about what you eat does not make you healthy; you also need to raise your metabolism.
Excessive exercise destroys the body. It is moderate exercise that suits you.
Walking or light jogging would be optimal, but running alone is lonely.
There are fitness clubs that are like meeting places for these old people.
I always try to see how they could not be out of fashion in a local city, but within two or three months of opening, the number of members has reached the break-even point and they are profitable.
We analyse the demographic structure of local cities and introduce businesses that fit your city.
I have been analysing local cities for 35 years and have been looking at all cities with a population of over 200,000 in Japan since I was 23 years old.
I have also seen the evolution of local cities in various regions.
Would you like to have a meeting to see what we can do?
It is also true that daytime towns are changing.
I always think that there is an urgent need to revitalise the shopping streets in local cities.
If there are successful shopping streets in other parts of the country, I would like you to introduce them to me so that I can go and see them immediately.
Every time I see a shopping street in a regional city, I get sad.
'It's a case. There are no people in the town..." Like that.
Please feel free to email.
atutiya@assentia-hd.com
Let's have a meeting via Zoom.
*Expand the area to be developed.
This will be described separately.
In the past 12 years, we have supported Japanese companies to expand their business overseas, and have now achieved and supported nearly 250 shops in 26 countries.
Last month, I spent two weeks in Vietnam, Singapore, Indonesia and the Philippines.
In September, I spent a month in Australia, travelling to five cities to see the market.
The markets in ASEAN and Australia are interesting.
There were Japanese izakayas in Manila and Jakarta with monthly sales of over 30 million yen.
There were over 30 Japanese-owned PIZZA restaurants in Vietnam.
There was a Japanese-owned ramen izakaya in Singapore with monthly sales of over 25 million yen.
In Australia, there were over 100 sushi roll shops that everyone knew about.
In Manila, there was a ramen shop with a huge queue that was as good as any Japanese ramen shop.
Unfortunately, the owners of these are not Japanese.
The market has changed a lot since before Corona.
Feel free to contact us!
Also feel free to email us at.
atutiya@assentia-hd.com
Let's have a meeting via Zoom.