![èŠåºãç»å](https://assets.st-note.com/production/uploads/images/91910433/rectangle_large_type_2_766a1568d071dd873e51242971f58837.jpeg?width=1200)
ð§ç±³åœèšŒåžå²ã»çµæžå²ãšè³¢äººã®äœãè¡ããã©ã¹ã«å·ãªããã®è¿ä»£åâ¬
æ¬ç·šã¯ã»ãããŒåè¬è ã»å¥çŽè ã»ææã¡ãŒã«ãã¬ãžã³äŒå¡åãã®èšäºã§ãã
äŒå¡ã®ç¡æå
¬éæéçµäºåŸãååãšããŠææèšäºãšããŠå
¬éããŠãããŸãã
1幎åããŸãšãããåŸãªãã¬ãžã³ããå šèšäºããŸãšããALLCollectãããããã§ãã
(æ¯æ1æ¥/15æ¥é ã«é 次远å ãããŸã)
ä»å¹Žãæ®ããšããããš1ãæã¡ãã£ãšã
ä»ã¯æ¥æ¿ã«é²ãã åå®ã®ååãšå©äžãå¹ ã®æžéæåŸ ãå è¡ããŠè¶³å Žãåºããããã®èª¿æŽå±é¢ã«å ¥ã£ãæãšèšãããã§ãã
æ¥æ¿ã«é²ãã ããã«12/18-19ã®FOMCã®ååãèŠãããŸã§åœé¢ã¯150ã130åãšããããªãå¹ åºãã¬ã³ãžã§é©åºŠãªã¬ãŒãã暡玢ããŠããæã§ããããã
ããèãããš140åååŸã¯ã¡ããã©åè¡¡ããç¯ç®ã«ãªããŸããã
ãŸã åé«ãã¬ã³ãã«æ»ã£ããšèããã®ã¯æ©èšã§ããããäœæ ãªãçŸåšã¯ãŸã å©äžãå¹ ãçž®å°ãããšããèŠå ã®äžã€ã«å¯ŸããŠã®æåŸ ã ãã§ãéå©å·®æ¡å€§ãçµãã£ãããã§ã¯ãªãããã§ãã
ããŠãäžççãªåãããçºæ¿ã®æ¥å€åã«FXãªã©ã§ä»å¹Žã¯éè¯ãçæéã§è³ç£ãç¯ãã人ãããããã§ãã
(éã«çžæ¬¡ãæ¥éãªã©ã®çºæ¿ä»å ¥ã«ãã£ãŠæ倱ãåºãã人ãäžã«å ¥ããããããŸããã)
![](https://assets.st-note.com/img/1669325583811-r54B5bXqor.png?width=1200)
ããããŠéããè³ç£ãå¢ããã人ãããŠã¯ãã颚朮ãæªã ã«ãããŸãããããã¯èªåãåãããã«åšããããšããå€ãã®äººã®æ§ããšãããéã«å¯ŸããŠã®å£®å€§ãªåéããéèãªãã©ã·ãŒã®äœãããæ¥ãŠããã®ãããããŸããã
倱éããGAFAMã決ç®ã§4瀟ãâŠ
ç§ã®noteèšäºã§ãããŸã§äœåºŠãåãäžããŠããããã«ããªãŒãã³ã·ã§ãã¯ä»¥éã®14幎äœãã¯ç±³åœå·šå€§ITäŒæ¥ãäžå¿ãšããæ ªåŒã®ç±ççæ代ã§ããã
ãã®æ°å¹Žãæè³ã®å°é家ã§ããªãYouTuberãããã¬ãŒãªã©ãç±³åœæ ªåŒ(S&P500ã»NYããŠã»NASDAQãªã©)ã«é·ææè³ãããã°è³ç£ãå¢ãããšããŠã¯ãããåå¿è ããã€ã¿ããŠNISAãããiDeCoããªã©ã®çšå¶åªéå¶åºŠã§ããã£ãŠæè³ãããŠããŸããã
ãã®æ¯éã¯å ãè§ãšããŠãå€ãã®æ¹ã®æè³ã®ã¢ã»ããã¢ãã±ãŒã·ã§ã³ã®äžæ žãæ ã£ãŠããç±³åœæ ªåŒã§ãããS&P500ãã巚倧ITäŒæ¥GAFAM5瀟(S&P5)ãé€ããS&P495ã®ããã©ãŒãã³ã¹ã¯é·å¹Žæé·ãããŠããªãæ¥æ¬ã®TOPIXãšéè²ãªãããã©ãŒãã³ã¹ããåºããŠããªããšããå®æ ãææãããŠãã2幎äœãã
ããã«æ¥ãŠç±³åœçµæžã®ããåŒåœ¹ã§ããGAFAMãè»äžŠã¿æè¿ã®æ±ºç®çºè¡šã§æ¥çžŸãäžãå§ããŠãããäžççãªæ¯æ°åŸéå±é¢ãè¿ã¥ããŠããŠããããšãšäœµããŠèŠææãé«ãŸãã€ã€ãããŸãã
![](https://assets.st-note.com/img/1669325623917-qekUaJ1n8X.png)
çããã®éçšå ãããç±³åœã«åã£ãŠæè³ãããŠãããšããã°ããã®ããã©ãŒãã³ã¹ã¯GAFAM5瀟ã«ãã£ãŠããããããŠããã ãã§ãç±³åœæ ªåŒã«æè³ãããã°è³ç£ãå¢ãããã¯å®ã¯å€§ããªé¯èª€ã§ããå¯èœæ§ããããŸãã
ãã®ããåŒåœ¹ã§ããGAFAMã«ãé颚ãå¹ãèããŠããŸãã
10æ27æ¥ã«åºæã£ã7-9ææã®æ±ºç®çºè¡šã§ã¯GAFAM5瀟äžã®4瀟ãäºæ³ãäžåããŸããã
FacebookãAmazon.comãNetflixãGoogleãšãã®ä»6ã€ã®å·šå€§ITäŒæ¥*ã®æ ªäŸ¡ååãåæ ããæ ªäŸ¡ææ°ãNYSE FANGãã©ã¹ãã¯10æã«åææ¯5%äžèœã
*Appleããã€ãã¥ãã¢ãªããããã³ã»ã³ããNVIDIAãTESLAãTwitter
S&P500ãšæ¯ã¹ãçžå¯Ÿéš°èœçã¯ãæ¯èŒã§ãã2014幎以éã§ææªãäœéå©æ代ã«çžå ŽãããåŒããITäŒæ¥ã®ååšæäœäžã象城ããèšé²ãšãªã£ãŠããŸãã
Google(Alphabet)ã¯ã°ã«ãŒãå
šäœã§ã¯å£²äžãå¢å ããŠããç©ã®ãåçã®æ±ãšãªã£ãŠããYouTubeã®åºååå
¥ãéå(2ïŒ
æž)ã
ãã€ããåºå(CM2æ¬)ãå«æ°ãããYouTubePremiumã§ã®åçã§æžå°å¹ ãåžåãåããŠããããã·ã§ãŒãåç»ã§ã¯TikTokãªã©ã«æµåºãå éã
Appleã¯è²©å£²äžæ¯ãªæ°åiPhone14ã9æåŸåã«çºå£²ã ã£ãããšããããä»åã®æ±ºç®ã«ã¯ã»ãŒç¹ã蟌ãŸããªãã£ãããšã§ä»4瀟ãšæ¯ã¹ãŠå€§ããªäžèœããé¿ããããŸãããã次å以éã®æ±ºç®ã¯ãªããªãå³ãããã®ã«ãªããããããŸããã
![](https://assets.st-note.com/img/1669325690162-Y4QCs36h2U.png)
iPhoneã®å
é»æ¥ç¶ç«¯åãLightningãã§é¢é£ã¢ã¯ã»ãµãªãŒããµãŒãããŒãã£ãŒè£œåããèªèšŒã©ã€ã»ã³ã¹(MFièªèšŒ/Made for iPhone/iPadãªã©)ã§åçãäžããŠããŸããããäžççã«ãŠãŒã¶ãŒæ°ã®å€ãAndroidãæ¡çšãããUSB-Cããžã®çµ±äžãEUã§ã¯2024幎以éã¯çŸ©ååã
iPhoneã§ãUSB-Cãæ¡çšããã¢ãã«ã®ç»å Žã¯æéã®åé¡ã«ã
![](https://assets.st-note.com/img/1669325699395-8stuqXDTFi.png?width=1200)
ã¢ã³ã¹ã¿ãŒãã³ã¿ãŒã·ãªãŒãºãªã©ãã€ã¡ãŒãžãããšæ³åããããããã
ã¢ãã¿ãŒã§ä»®æ³äžçã§åéºãããããéã£ãããè¡ãäœã£ãããã©ã€ãããããâŠ
ãªã³ã©ã€ã³ã²ãŒã FORTNITEã§è©±é¡ãšãªã£ãEpicGamesãäžçæ倧ã®é³æ¥œé ä¿¡ãµãŒãã¹Spotifyãªã©ãåçºããŠããAppleã®AppStoreãGooglePlayStoreçµç±ã§ã®èª²éã·ã¹ãã â»ã
ãããŸã§å£²äžã®30%ãã¢ããã«ãŸãã¯Googleãžåžãäžãããã¢ããã«çš/ã°ãŒã°ã«çšãªã©ãšæ¶æãããŠããŸããããè£å€ã§æ蚎ããããšã§2021幎1æãã売äžã«å¿ããŠ15~30%ãžãšè»åã2022幎9æããå€éšæ±ºæžã®è§£çŠã«åããŠã®ã·ã¹ãã ã®è©Šéšéçšãå§ãŸããŸããã
â»ã¢ããªKindle for iPad(iPhone)ãªã©ã§é»åæžç±ãªã©ãçŽæ¥è³Œå ¥ã§ããªãåå
![](https://assets.st-note.com/img/1669325753098-0yi1jgkDlI.png?width=1200)
ãããé販æ倧æã®Amazon.comã¯ãã©ã€ã äŒå¡ã«ãªãããšã§ã
é
éæç¡æãæ åã»é³æ¥œãªã©æ§ã
ãªãµãŒãã¹ãå©çšã§ãããšããŠäžçäžã§å€ãã®å å
¥è
ãåã£ãŠããŸããã
ãã®è£ã§ã¯è³Œè²·å±¥æŽãšèŠèŽåŸåããã¬ã³ã¡ã³ãã«ãããããã°ããŒã¿åéã®çŽä»ãããããŠããã
![](https://assets.st-note.com/img/1669325780406-liX1t7NZzJ.png?width=1200)
2022幎æ«ããã«ãªãã©ã«ãã¢å·ã§è§£çŠ
ããã2022幎2æã«ç±³åœã§æé¡12.99ãŠãã14.99ãŠ(13%)ã幎äŒè²»ã¯119ãŠãã139ãŠ(15%)ãžå€äžãã
è±åœã§ã¯çŽ20%ãç¬åœã§ã¯30%ãä»åœã§ã¯43%ã®å€äžããè¡ãããŠããŸãã
ããã«å ããŠé販äºæ¥ã§ã¯ã³ããçŠããçµæžãã»ãŒéåžžé転ã«æ»ã£ãååã§ãããé販å©çšè
ãæžå°ã
10-12æã®äºæ³ãäžæ¹ä¿®æ£ãçºè¡šåŸã«20ïŒ
ãæ ªäŸ¡ãäžèœããŸããã
![](https://assets.st-note.com/img/1669325801060-HkzofLdsAK.png?width=1200)
OS/Windowsã§å§åçãªã·ã§ã¢ã確ä¿ããŠããMicrosoftã¯OFFICE(Microsoft365)ã®ãµãã¹ã¯ãªãã·ã§ã³ãµãŒãã¹ããœãããŠã§ã¢äºæ¥ã®åçãäžæ¯ãã
è¿å¹ŽSurfaceãªã©ããœã³ã³æ¬äœã®è²©å£²ãææããŠããŸãããäžççãªåå°äœäžè¶³ã«ãã圱é¿ãšWindows11ãžã®è²·ãæ¿ããé²ãŸã売äžã¯äœè¿·ã
![](https://assets.st-note.com/img/1669325809533-cXrS991cqI.png?width=1200)
SurfaceStudio(ãã¹ã¯ãããPC)ãSurfaceBook(ã¿ãã¬ãã/ããŒãPC2Way)ã
SurfaceLaptop(ããŒãPC)ãSurfacePro(ã¿ãã¬ãã/ããŒãPC2Way)ã
SurfaceProX(LTEæèŒ)ãSurfaceGo(Proã®å°åç)
ä»ãããäžã€ã®åçã®æ±ãšãªã£ãŠããã¯ã©ãŠããµãŒãã¹ãAzureãã®æé·ãéåããã¡ãã¯Amazon.comã®AWSãšã®ç«¶äºãæ¿åããŠããŸãã
![](https://assets.st-note.com/img/1669325844677-GmLbSkJQGb.png?width=1200)
Meta Platform Inc.ã«ç€Ÿåãå€æŽãçºè¡šããŠä»¥éãäœè¿·ãç¶ãã
Facebook/Instagramã¯ãŠãŒã¶ãŒãã飜ãããå§ããŠããiOS14.5ã®ã»ãã¥ãªãã£ãŒããªã·ãŒæ¹èšã«ãã£ãŠå人æ
å ±ã®ãã©ããã³ã°ãæåŠãããŠãŒã¶ãŒãæ¥å¢ã
![](https://assets.st-note.com/img/1669325862901-NiaRIfmhqV.png?width=1200)
åºååå
¥ãæ±ã§ããäºæ¥ã®åçæ§ã倧ããç®æžããå§ããæ°ããªå¯èœæ§ãæ±ããã¡ã¿ããŒã¹äºæ¥ã§æºãæããŠç»å Žããæ°ã¢ãã«MetaQuestPro23äžåãšç¬¬äºã®ã¹ããã«ã¯ãŸã ãŸã é ãç¶æ³ã
![](https://assets.st-note.com/img/1669325871370-nAayVxBLss.png?width=1200)
æŽã«GAFAMã¯å·šé¡ã®å£²äžãæããªãããç»èšäžã®æ¬ç€Ÿæåšå°ãæ³äººçšã®å®ãåœã«ããããšã§ç§çšåé¿ãããŠãããšåœéçãªæ¹é£ãåããŸããã
![](https://assets.st-note.com/img/1669325889475-7lODNQ5fG5.png?width=1200)
ãã©ã³ã¹ã§ã¯2019幎ãã売äžé«200åãŠãŒãè¶
ãå©çç10ïŒ
è¶
ã®äŒæ¥ã¯åœå
ã§ã®å£²äžã«å¯ŸããŠ3%ã課ããããŠããŸããã2023幎ããã¯EUå çåœã§å
šé¢èª²çšãããŸãã
![](https://assets.st-note.com/img/1669325907696-N75gQ4xmWi.png)
ãŽãŒã«ããã³ãµãã¯ã¹ã®å ã·ãã¢æè³ã¹ãã©ããžã¹ãã®ã³ãŒãšã³æ°ãææããããã«äœããããè²·ãã°å€äžããããæ代ã¯çµãããŸããã
ãã®æ§ã¯ãŸãã§ãã€ãŠã®ãããã£ã»ãã£ããã£çžå Ž(1960幎代ãã70幎代åé )ã®ããã§ããã®åŸã®é«ã€ã³ãã¬æ代ã2床ã®ãªã€ã«ã·ã§ãã¯å°æ¥ãªã©ã«ãã£ãŠããããŸã§æ³šç®ãããŠããéæãããšããšãæ ªäŸ¡ãå¥ããèœã¡ãæ§ãšãã䌌ãŠããŸãã
ãã®1970幎代åã°ãæ ªåŒåžå Žã®äžèœãè»èª¿ãç©ãšãããªã奜æ瞟ãäžãç¶ãè³ç£ãç¯ããŠãåŸã«äŒèª¬ã®æè³å®¶ãšåŒã°ããããšã«ãªã人ç©ãããŸããã
![](https://assets.st-note.com/img/1669325923023-Wf1rAZekYZ.png?width=1200)
æ¬èšäºã¯å€ãã®äººãç¥ã£ãŠããããã§ç¥ããªããç±³åœæ ªåŒã®ä»£è¡šçãªææšNYããŠãS&P500âŠããããèªçããç±³åœèšŒåžå²ã»çµæžå²ãšæ ªåŒæè³ã®ç¥æ§ãããã©ã¹ã«å·ãªããã«èªçãããŸã§ã®1600幎代ãã1930幎ãŸã§ã®ããããŒã°ã§ãã
ã¢ã¡ãªã«ã®èšŒåžå²ã»çµæžå²
ãŠã©ãŒã«è¡ãšäžçæåã®ããã«åŽ©å£
![](https://assets.st-note.com/img/1669325940477-FKJAmcrEMf.png?width=1200)
äžçæ倧ã®èšŒåžååŒæãããäºã§ç¥ããããŠã©ãŒã«è¡ã¯1653幎ã«ãã¥ãŒãšãŒã¯(NY)ã»ãã³ããã¿ã³å³¶ã®å端ã«ç Šãç¯ãããäºã«ç±æ¥ãããšããäºã¯æè³å®¶ã«ããç¥ããã話ã§ãããã
![](https://assets.st-note.com/img/1669325966831-qEWEgn2vCG.png?width=1200)
18äžçŽã«å
¥ããšè²¿ææ¥ãåå±ããã®å°ã«ç§»ãäœã¿ãã¢ã¡ãªã«ç¬ç«æŠäº(1775-1783)ã®é ã«ã¯ãã®èŸºãã«åºæ¥ããã³ãã£ã³ã»ã³ãŒããŒã»ã·ã§ããã§äººã
ã¯é£éŠåµã®ææ©ç売買ãè¡ãããããã«ãªã£ããšããããŸãã§ã€ã®ãªã¹ã§ãã€ãºãããžãã¹ãå§ãã姿ãšæ®ã©ãã£ããã§ãã£ãããšã¯ä»ãäžéšã®æŽå²å®¶ãããããäžã€ã§ãå€ãã®äºãåŠãŒããšãã人ãã¡ãç¥ãäºãããããŸããã
![](https://assets.st-note.com/img/1669325985149-n9Lr0Tl9qs.png?width=1200)
倩æåŠã»ç©çåŠã®å€©æã¢ã€ã¶ãã¯ã»ãã¥ãŒãã³ã¯å人æè³å®¶ã§ããã£ãã
ããã圌ããããçŸåšäŸ¡å€ã§4ååãã®æ倱ããã®åèšãæ®ããå海泡沫äºä»¶ããç§ã¯å€©äœã®åãã¯èšç®ã§ãããã人ã ã®çã£ãè¡åã¯èšç®ã§ããªãã
NYãšãã³ãã³ã¯å ±ã«æ ªåŒãåµåžãåãæ±ã£ãŠããŸããããããã«ã®èªæºãšãªã£ãå海泡沫äºä»¶(The South Sea Bubble,1720)ãæ©ã«ãã³ãã³ãäžå¿ã«æ¬§å·ååœã§ã¯ãã®åŒãéãšãªã£ãæ ªåŒäŒç€Ÿãšããä»çµã¿ã«å¯ŸããŠå«çããããããéã«ã¯èšç«ã«éããŠã®èŠå¶ãããããã泡沫äŒç€ŸèŠå¶æ³ãæœè¡ã
åŸã«äžæ£æ±ºç®ãç£èŠããå ¬å¹³ãªæ å ±ã®é瀺ãæ ä¿ããããã«äŒèšç£æ»å¶åºŠ(å ¬èªäŒèšå£«å¶åºŠ)ãªã©ãæç«ãããšããããæ ªåŒäŒç€Ÿã®èšç«ã段éçã«è§£çŠãããŠãããŸãã
ããããŠãšãŒãããã®æ ªåŒæè³ãžã®ç±çã¯å·ããŠãã³ãã³ã§ã¯æ ªäŸ¡ãšæ¯ã¹ãŠäŸ¡æ Œå€åæ§ã®äœãåµåžååŒãçºå±ããŠçåœä¿éºãæ害ä¿éºãšããä¿éºæ¥ãããã¥ãŒãšãŒã¯ã§ã¯ãã³ãã³ãšã®ååŒã®å·®å¥åãšããããè³éãæµå ¥ããŠæ ªåŒã®ååŒãåŸã«çºå±ããŠèšŒåžæ¥ãããããã®åœã»å°åã»äŒæ¥ã®è³é調éæ段ãšãªããéè¡ãšäžŠã¶ãéèãã®äžæ žãæ ãããã«ãªããŸãã
![](https://assets.st-note.com/img/1669326019931-G9rq8mJP23.png)
ãŠã©ãŒã«è¡ã§ã¯äžå®æéå¬ã ã£ã売買ãã仲ä»äººãã¡ã«ãã£ãŠ1792幎ã«1æ¥2åã®ååŒãè¡ããããšå®ãããããšéæå¥ã®å£²å€ã»è²·å€ãåºæ¥é«ãèŒããæ°èãçºè¡ãããããã«ãªããååŒãåžæãã人ã ã§ã³ãŒããŒã·ã§ããã¯æº¢ããå幎5æã«ã¯é¡§å®¢ã奪ãåãããã®ææ°æçã®éåœç«¶äºãé²æ¢ããããã«æå¿ã®ãããŒã«ãŒã24åã«ãã£ãŠãButtonwood Agreementãã亀ããããŸããã
"æã ããã®å ¬éæ ªåŒã売買ãã眲åè ã仲買人ã¯ãæ¬å¥çŽæžã«ãã£ãŠãäºãã«å³ç²ã«çŽæããã³èªçŽãããæã ã¯ããã®æ¥ããã誰ã§ããããšã©ããªæ ªåŒã§ããããšãæ£é䟡å€ã®ååã®äžããŒã»ã³ã(0.25%)以äžã®ææ°æã§ååŒã¯è¡ããªãããšããããŠäº€æžã«ãã£ãŠäºãã«åªå æš©ãäžããããšã1792幎5æ17æ¥ããã¥ãŒãšãŒã¯ã«ãããŠããã®èšŒèšã«çœ²åããã"
1817幎3æããã®åå®ãèæ¡ãšãªãçµç¹æ²ç« ãæç«ãå®æ¬Ÿãå¶å®ããè°é·ãéžåºã
çµç¹åã"New York Stock & Exchange Board"ãšãã1863幎ã«New York Stock Exchangeãšæ¹ç§°ãããäžçæ倧ã®ååŒæã§ããäºãã"Big Board"ã®æ称ã§èŠªããŸããŠããŸãã
ç§åŠæè¡ã®çºå±ãšãã£ãã«ãŒ
![](https://assets.st-note.com/img/1669326066476-rIZC406v8j.png?width=1200)
1866幎ã«ãŠãšã¹ã¿ã³ãŠããªã³ã¯èªç€Ÿã®é»ä¿¡(é»å ±)ã·ã¹ãã ãåœå
ã®ã¿ãªããäžçåå°ã«èšãããšåæã«åå°ã®ååŒãšè³é移å決æžæ¥ãšããŠã®å°äœã®ç¢ºç«ãç®æããŠéæãç°¡ç¥åãããã£ãã«ãŒã»ã·ã¹ãã ãæå±ããä»æ¥ã®éæã³ãŒãã«ãã®è¶³è·¡ãæ®ããŠããŸãã
![](https://assets.st-note.com/img/1669326077454-Wz8Vhx4hMR.png?width=1200)
ãâªïžÃâ³â¡å·¥æ¥æ ªåŒäŒç€Ÿããªã©é·ãäŒæ¥åã ãšæã¡ééããé¡äŒŒäŒæ¥åãšã®æ··åãæããããé»å ±ã§äŒããããæ倧4æåã®ãã£ãã«ãŒã§éæã瀺ãã«ãŒã«ãå®ããã
![](https://assets.st-note.com/img/1669326111956-zsNnsvSTpZ.png)
ããŠã»ãžã§ãŒã³ãºç€ŸãšWSJ
1882幎ã«æ°èèšè
ã§èšŒåžã¢ããªã¹ãã ã£ããã£ãŒã«ãºã»ããŠãšçµ±èšåŠè
ãšãã¯ãŒãã»ãžã§ãŒã³ãºã«ãã£ãŠããŠã»ãžã§ãŒã³ãºç€Ÿãèšç«ã
![](https://assets.st-note.com/img/1669326132287-3TrFEqpsJA.png?width=1200)
ããŠã®é·å¹Žã®åæçµéšãããæ ªäŸ¡ã¯å šãŠã®äºè±¡ãç¹ã蟌ãããšããèãã®å ã1896幎ã«ãŠã©ãŒã«è¡é¢ä¿è åãã«ãžã§ãŒã³ãºãé åžããææžãã®ãã¥ãŒãºã¬ã¿ãŒãåŸã«ããŠã©ãŒã«ã»ã¹ããªãŒãã»ãžã£ãŒãã«ã(WSJ)ãšãªããããã«èšèŒãããããŠçè«ãå ã«ç®åºããããŠå·¥æ¥æ ªå¹³åã12éæã§å ¬è¡šéå§ã
ããŠã¯ãã¯ãã«ã«åæã®å é§è ãããŠå·¥æ¥å¹³åã¯ã¢ã¡ãªã«ã§æãæŽå²ã®ããæ ªåŒææšãšãªããŸãã
1916幎ã«20éæã1928幎ããçŸåšã®30éæãšãªããããŠ30皮工æ¥å¹³åæ ªäŸ¡ãšåŒã°ããããã«ãªãã
ç«äŒæãšåžå Žæ¿å€æ代
![](https://assets.st-note.com/img/1669326158012-nvdb7AI1c8.png)
ãããŠ1903幎ã«çŸåšã®ç«äŒæãå®æãã1907幎ææ *ããéŽç£šãã®å°å¹ŽããšããæèšãçŸä»£ã«èªã£ãŠãããåµäœè©±ã®èå°ãšãªã£ã1929幎ã®äžçææ ãçµãŠäžçã®èšŒåžååŒã®äžå¿ã«æé·ããŠãããæ°ã ã®éèå±æ©ã倧æŽèœãã¯ããŸã倧çžå Žã®èå°ãšãªã£ãŠãããŸãã
*åœæã®ç±³åœã¯éè¡æ¥ãšèšŒåžæ¥ã®å Œæ¥ãåœããåã ã£ããã1933幎ã®ã°ã©ã¹ã»ã¹ãã£ãŒã¬ã«æ³ã«ãã£ãŠåæ¥åãããã
æ³åŸæ¹æ£ã«ãã£ãŠéè¡ç³»ã«æ®ã£ãJPã¢ã«ã¬ã³(çŸJPã¢ã«ã¬ã³ã»ãã§ãŒã¹)ãšèšŒåžæ¥(æè³éè¡)ã«äºæ¥ãã¹ãã³ã¢ãŠããããã¢ã«ã¬ã³ã»ã¹ã¿ã³ã¬ãŒãªã©ã«åãããå¥æ©ãšãªãã
1907幎ææ ã¯è²¡é¥ãäžå¿ãšããéè¡æ¥ã§ã¯ãªã蚌åžã»ä¿éºãè³é移åæ¥ãªã©ééè¡ç³»ã§ããã·ã£ããŒãã³ãã³ã°ã·ã¹ãã ã®ç¢ºç«ã«ç¹ããããžã§ã³ã»ãã¢ã¢ã³ãã»ã¢ã«ã¬ã³(JPã¢ã«ã¬ã³ã»ãã§ãŒã¹åµæ¥è )ã®æå±ã«ãã£ãŠã¢ã¡ãªã«ã«ã¯åœæãªãã£ãäžå€®éè¡ãããŒã»ããŒã«ã®ä»çµã¿ãšããŠé£éŠæºåå¶åºŠFRSãšãããåããŸãšããé£éŠæºåå¶åºŠçäºäŒFRBèšç«ã®å¥æ©ãšãªãããã³ãã³ããäžçéèã®äžå¿ããã¹ãã³ããã¥ãŒãšãŒã¯ãªã©ã¢ã¡ãªã«ãžç§»ããã£ããã«ããªã£ãã
倧éžæšªæééãšS&P瀟
ãŸã1923幎ã«çµ±èšã«ã€ããŠã®ç 究ã»åºçãããŠããã¹ã¿ã³ããŒãçµ±èšç€Ÿã26æ¥çš®233瀟ã®æ ªäŸ¡ãææ°åããŠææšãçºè¡šã
![](https://assets.st-note.com/img/1669326523244-ir2G5ZxWUA.png)
ãŠããªã³ã»ãã·ãã£ãã¯ééãªã©ã¢ã¡ãªã«åœå ã®ããããééäŒç€Ÿã®çµå¶ãéè¡ç¶æ³(è·¯ç·å³ãæå»è¡šãªã©)ããŸãšãããã¢ãŒãºåºçãš1941幎ã«å䜵ããŠã¹ã¿ã³ããŒã&ãã¢ãŒãº(S&P)瀟ãšãªãã第äºæ¬¡äžç倧æŠåŸã®åŸ©èæã§ãã£ã1957幎ã«çŸåšã®500éæã«ããç±³åœã®ä»£è¡šçãªææšã®äžã€S&P500ææ°ãå ¬è¡šããããã«ãªããŸãã
è²·ããªã人ãæ®ã©ãç¥æ§ã®æ ªåŒã
æ¯å¹Ž4ææ«ïœ5æåæ¬ã«ããã©ã¹ã«å·ãªããã«äžçäžãã人ã ãéãŸããŸãã
![](https://assets.st-note.com/img/1669326213468-RcRuM6JEuH.png?width=1200)
æ ªäž»ç·äŒã«ãæ ªåŒæè³ã®ç¥æ§ãã«è³ãåŸãã人ã ã§æº¢ããäŒå Ž
ç¹å¥ç®ç«ã£ã芳å å°ã§ããªãäžè¥¿éšã®è¡ã«äººã ããã£ãŠæ¥ãçç±ã¯äžçã§ããããã¯ã©ã¹ã®åäžé·è ãããååé·è âŠ
![](https://assets.st-note.com/img/1669326235476-uzzC4HcRiy.png?width=1200)
ããã©ã¹ã«å·ãªããã¯ãŠã©ãŒã¬ã³ã»ããã§ããã®æ é·ã§ããã圌ãçµå¶ããäžçæ倧ã®æè³äŒç€ŸããŒã¯ã·ã£ãŒã»ããµãŠã§ã€(BRK)*ãæ¬ç€Ÿãæ§ããåå°ã ããã§ãã
![](https://assets.st-note.com/img/1669326251568-VokeRtf5zy.png?width=1200)
ç±³ããã©ã¹ã«å·ãªããã®ãã¥ãŒã€ããã»ãã©ã¶
*æ£ç¢ºãªçºé³ã«è¿ãã®ã¯ããŒã¯ã·ã£ãŒã»ãã¶ãŠã§ã€ã ããæ¬èšäºã§ã¯æ¥æ¬èªè¡šèšã®éäŸã«åŸã£ãŠããŒã¯ã·ã£ãŒã»ããµãŠã§ã€ãšããŸãã
ãŠã©ãŒã¬ã³ã»ããã§ããã¯æ é·ãªããã§è³ªçŽ ã«æ®ããã奢ãããåžæ³ãå·éã«èŠã€ããã²ãããã«åæãããåè¶ããæè³ææãäžããŠããããšããããªããã®è³¢äººããšãåŒã°ããŠããŸãã
æ¥æ¬ã§ã¯äžéšã®äººã¯è¯ãç¥ã£ãŠããŸããããŠã©ãŒã¬ã³ã»ããã§ããã¯ç©¶æ¥µã®ã¢ã¯ãã£ãéçšè ã§ãããŒã¯ã·ã£ãŒã»ããµãŠã§ã€ç€Ÿã®æ ªåŒãè²·ãããšã¯è¶ ã¢ã¯ãã£ãéçšã®æè³ä¿¡èšãè²·ãäºãšã»ãŒå矩ã§ãã
BRKã¯äŒç€Ÿåæè³ä¿¡èšããŒãã¥ã¢ã«ãã¡ã³ããæ¥æ¬ã§æ®ã©ã®æè³ä¿¡èšã¯èŠçŽåæè³ä¿¡èš
æ¬åœã®æå³ã§é·æã§è³ç£ãç¯ããªãã€ã³ããã¯ã¹éçšã§ã¯ãªããè¶ ã¢ã¯ãã£ãéçšã®ããŒã¯ã·ã£ãŒã»ããµãŠã§ã€ã®æ ªãè²·ãã°ããã®ã§ãããæ¥æ¬äººã®å€ãã¯è²·ã£ãŠããŸããã
äœæ ãªãããŒã¯ã·ã£ãŒã»ããµãŠã§ã€ã®ã¯ã©ã¹Aæ ª*ã1æ ª42äž1000ãã«(åœæã®ã¬ãŒãã§4,595äžåçžåœïŒ2021幎5ææç¹)ãè¶ ããã»ã©é«é¡ã ããã§ãã
*ã¯ã©ã¹Aæ ª=è°æ±ºæš©ã¢ãªã®éåžžæ ªãã¯ã©ã¹Bæ ªïŒã¯ã©ã¹Bæ ªã®çºè¡äŸ¡æ Œã¯ã¯ã©ã¹Aæ ªã®1500åã®1ã§ãããã¯ã©ã¹Bæ ªã®è°æ±ºæš©ãã¯ã©ã¹Aæ ªã®1äžåã®1ã«èšå®ã2010幎ããäžè¬æè³å®¶åãã«å ¬åãéå§ãããã
ããŸãã«1æ ªãããã®æ ªäŸ¡ãé«å€ãä»ããŠããããã«ã2021幎5æåæ¬ã«ã¯NASDAQã®ååŒã·ã¹ãã ãå瀟ã®æ ªäŸ¡åæ ãäžæåæ¢ããäºæ ã«é¥ããŸããã
åœæã®NASDAQã®æ ªäŸ¡ã¯å°ç¹ä»¥äžæ°ç¬¬4äœãŸã§äœ¿ã£ãŠèšé²ãããããšãå€ãããã32ãããã§è¡šããæ倧å€ã¯2ã®32ä¹ãã€ãŸã4,294,967,295ã
æ倧ã®æ ªäŸ¡ã¯ 42äž9496.7295ãŠã§ãããŒã¯ã·ã£ãŒã»ããµãŠã§ã€ã®æ ªäŸ¡ãè¶ ããã®ã¯æéã®åé¡ã§ããã
å ã¿ã«ããŒã¯ã·ã£ãŒã®æ¬¡ã«æ ªäŸ¡ãé«ãç±³åœæ ªã¯äœå® 建èšäŒç€Ÿã®NVRã§åœæ5100ãŠã
å幎ã®å¹Žåæ¥ãã5æåæ¬ãŸã§ã«20ïŒ ã®å€äžãããããŠããããã«ãããã°ã2000幎åé¡ãã®æ ªåŒçãããããæžå¿µã¯çŸå®ã®ãã®ãšãªã£ãŠããŸããŸããã
ãŸãã«æ¡éãã®æ ªäŸ¡ãšãªã£ãŠããããšãããNASDAQã®ã·ã¹ãã æ åœè ã1瀟ã®æ ªäŸ¡ã®ããã«ã·ã¹ãã ã®æ¹ä¿®ãè¡ãããšã«èžã¿åããªãã£ããšãããŸãã
åžå Žã§ã¯ããããäºæ
ãé¿ããããã«ããŒã¯ã·ã£ãŒã»ããµãŠã§ã€ã¯æ ªåŒåå²ãè¡ãã¹ããšããæèŠããããŸããã
ããããŠã©ãŒã¬ã³ã»ããã§ããã¯ãããè·³ãé€ããŸããã
圌ãèªèº«ã®æè³å²åŠã«åŸããæ ªåŒåå²ã«åŠå®çã§ãããšããã®ã¯æåãªè©±ã§ãã
æ ªåŒåå²ãšã¯ãããšãã°1æ ª100ãŠã®æ ªåŒã1æ ªã ãä¿æããŠãã人ã¯ãæ ªåŒåå²ã«ãã£ãŠ2æ ªä¿æ(æ ªäŸ¡ã¯50ãŠ)ã«ãªãä»çµã¿ã§ãã
æ ªåŒåå²ãããããšã«ãã£ãŠãæ ªäŸ¡ãäœããšçµéšã®æµ ãçææè³å®¶ãå¯ã£ãŠãããšçããç±³åœã®çµæžèªãFORTUNEãã¯ãŠã©ãŒã¬ã³ã»ããã§ããããããŒã¯ã·ã£ãŒãæ ªåŒãåå²ãããŸã§çããããŸãããã«ããšå人ã®ããŒã¹ãã£ã«ãŒãã«ãµã€ã³ãããŠéã£ãŠãããšããœãŒãã玹ä»ã
ãŸãã500ãã«ãæã£ãŠãã人ãªã誰ã§ãç°¡åã«è²·ãããã®ãªããèªåãäœãããŠãããå šãåãã£ãŠããªã人ã ãããã£ãŠè²·ãã ããããš1995幎ã®ããŒã¯ã·ã£ãŒã»ããµãŠã§ã€ã®å¹Žæ¬¡æ ªäž»ç·äŒã§èªã£ãŠããŸãã
è³é調éãç®çã§ãããæ ªåŒæè³ã«ãããŠãç®èãªè©±ã§ããçŸåšã®å€ãã®ã€ã³ããã¯ã¹éçšä¿¡å¥è ãã¡ã¯æµåæ§(è³éã®çŸéå)ãé«ãçæ売åŽã§å£²ãéããã§ããç¶æ³ã«çãããŠãããšãèšããŸãã
å°ãé åœãåºããªãã®ãããã§ããæµã
ããã§ããæ°ããé åœãåºãäŒæ¥ã¯è³éã®äœ¿ãéãèŠã€ããããªãããé åœãåºããã®ã ãããé»åæ ªã»ééæ ªãªã©äºæ¥ã«å¶éã®ããäŒæ¥ã¯ä»æ¹ãªããšããŠé åœã¯æãåºãã³ã¹ããçšéçãå«ããŠãã¡ã€ãã³ã¹äžã¯è¯ããªããšããã®ã圌ã®èãæ¹ã
çµæçã«NASDAQã¯æ±ºããŠé »ç¹ã«å£²è²·ãããããšãå°ãªããã®æ¡éãã«æ ªäŸ¡ã®å€§ããªäŒç€Ÿã®ããã«ã·ã¹ãã ã®æ¹ä¿®ãäœåãªããããŸããã
1965幎ïœ2014幎ãŸã§ã®50幎éã®æ瞟ã¯S&P500(é åœèŸŒ)ã幎ç9.9ïŒ ãšéåžžã§ããã°ååç®ãèŠåŒµããšããã§ããããŠã©ãŒã¬ã³ã»ããã§ãã(ããŒã¯ã·ã£ãŒã»ããµãŠã§ã€)ã®æ瞟ã¯åæéã§19.4ïŒ ãåççã§ã¯S&P500ã11,196%ã«å¯ŸããŠ751,113%ãšæåéãæ¡éãã®ãé©ç°çãªæ瞟ãä¿®ããŠããŸãã
![](https://assets.st-note.com/img/1669326356682-N9nH5NTU08.png?width=1200)
賢人ã®äœãããã©ã¹ã«å·ãªãã
ããããŠã©ãŒã¬ã³ã»ããã§ãããæããããã©ã¹ã«å·ããªãããã¢ã¡ãªã«ã«ãšã£ãŠã©ããªå Žæãªã®ããæ¥æ¬äººã¯æ®ã©ç¥ããŸãããæãããŠã©ããªåå°ãªã®ã§ããããïŒ
![](https://assets.st-note.com/img/1669326372382-Bh65jJFQ4P.png?width=1200)
ããã©ã¹ã«å·ã¯ã¢ã¡ãªã«äžè¥¿éšã«äœçœ®ãã人å£196äžäººã§åœå¢èª¿æ»ã§ã¯å šç±³37äœãæ¥æ¬ã®é森çãšã»ãŒåã緯床ã«äœçœ®ããŠããŸãã
![](https://assets.st-note.com/img/1669326381484-XwBdCMlQ7C.png)
çŸåšã®å·éœã¯åŠåéœåžãªã³ã«ãŒã³ã§ãããå
ã
ãã®è¡ã®ååã¯ã©ã³ã«ã¹ã¿ãŒãšåŒã°ããŠããŸããã
![](https://assets.st-note.com/img/1669326396982-BvAICa9I4j.png?width=1200)
(人æ°ã®äººæ°ã«ãã人æ°ã®ããã®æ¿æ²»)
ã²ãã£ã¹ããŒã°æŒèª¬ã¯1863幎11æ19æ¥ã«ååæŠäºã®æäžã«è¡ãããã
éœåžã®è¿ä»£åã«å瞟ãæ®ãã1865幎ã«æ殺ããããšã€ãã©ãã ã»ãªã³ã«ãŒã³å€§çµ±é ã称ããããã«1867幎ã«çŸåšã®ååã«å€æŽãããŸããã
![](https://assets.st-note.com/img/1669326415761-OYKrpAoWpH.png?width=1200)
ãã以åã®å·éœã¯æ±ç«¯ã®å·å¢çãå·ã®ã»ãšãã«ã«ãããªããã
人å£48.6äžäººã§çŸåšãå·æ倧ã®éœåžã§ãã
![](https://assets.st-note.com/img/1669326442516-0eZ53YNfFQ.png?width=1200)
ç±³åœæé·ã®æ²³å·ã§ãããã·ã·ããå·ã®æã倧ããªæ¯æµã§ããããºãŒãªå·æµåã¯ããã©ã¹ã«ã»ã¢ã€ãªã¯äž¡å·8矀ã«ãŸããã£ãŠãããããºãŒãªå·ãæž¡ã£ãŠæ±ã«é£æ¥ããã¢ã€ãªã¯å·ãå«ããªããã®éœåžåã¯96.7äžäººã50kmåã§é£æ¥ããããªãŒã¢ã³ããå ããåºåéœåžåã§ã¯100äžäººã®äººå£ãè¶
ããŸãã
![](https://assets.st-note.com/img/1669326459383-HBQP9l77DF.png)
æ®ã©ã®äººãç¥ããªããªãããšããåå°ã§ãããå®ã¯äžçäžã®å ç«¥ãã¡ãäžåºŠã¯èªãã ããšãããããªãºã®éæ³äœ¿ãã(1900幎米åœ)ã«ãç»å ŽããŠããŸãã
![](https://assets.st-note.com/img/1669326473745-2VDXe14iUa.png?width=1200)
äžçäžã§ç¥ãããå ç«¥æåŠã®åäœããªãºã®éæ³äœ¿ãã
äœè ã¯ããã¶ãŒã»ã°ãŒã¹ã®ç©èªãã§ç¥ããã童話äœå®¶ã©ã€ãã³ã»ãã©ã³ã¯ã»ããŒã
ããªãºã®éæ³äœ¿ããã§ããã·ãŒã¯åã®ã«ã³ã¶ã¹ã®åºèº«ã§ãç«å·»ã§é£ã°ãããŠããŸã家ã«åž°ãããšãæã¿åéºãå§ãŸããŸãã
æ ã®éäžã§åºé¢ã£ãè³ã欲ããã«ã«ã·ãå¿ã欲ããããªãã®æšãããåæ°ã欲ããã©ã€ãªã³ãšå ±ã«ããšã¡ã©ã«ãã®éœã®æ¯é è <ãªãºã®éæ³äœ¿ã>ã«äŒã£ãŠé¡ããå¶ããããã«æ ãããŸãã
ãªãºã®éæ³äœ¿ãã¯æ°çã«ä¹ã£ãŠãã£ãŠæ¥ããšèšãã人ã ã¯éæ³äœ¿ããšãããã®æ称ãããªãºã®æ£åœãªæ¯é è ã ãšèããŠåœŒãæè¿ãããšã¡ã©ã«ãã®éœã建èšããŸãããæ±è¥¿ã®æªãé女ã«æ¯ã宮殿ã«åŒãããã£ããŸãŸã§ãããšããã«ãããã·ãŒãã¡ããã£ãŠæ¥ãŸãã
ã«ã«ã·ã«æ°ããè³ïŒ"a lot of bran-new brains"ãå®éã¯ç³ (bran)ãšéãè©°ããé ïŒããããªãã®æšããã«ã¯çµ¹ã®å¿ïŒãããããè©°ããããŒãåã®çµ¹ã®è¢ïŒããèç ãªã©ã€ãªã³ã«ã¯åæ°ãåºãè¬ïŒåè§ã®ç·ã®ç¶ããåºãã液äœïŒãäžããèªåã®åŸç¶è ã«ã«ã«ã·ãæ®ããèªåã¯æ°çã«ä¹ã£ãŠæ é·ãªããã«åž°ã£ãŠããŸããŸãã
ããã§ãã以åãããªããã¯è³¢äººãæ®ããè¡ã ã£ãã®ãããããŸããã
æŽå²ã«ç»å Žãããªããã®è¿ä»£å
![](https://assets.st-note.com/img/1669326501165-kw6GTWSXce.png?width=1200)
ãªããã®è¿ä»£åã¯ã西éšãžã®çé¢å£ããšããŠå€§éžæšªæééã®æ±è¥¿ã®é£ç¯ç¹ãšããŠçŸåšãç±³åœæ倧ã®è²šç©ééäŒç€ŸãŠããªã³ã»ãã·ãã£ãã¯ééããªã³ã«ãŒã³å€§çµ±é ã®æ¿èªã«ãã£ãŠ1862幎ã«åµæ¥ããã®ãå¥æ©ã§ããã
ãã®èšäºãæ°ã«å ¥ã£ãããµããŒããããŠã¿ãŸãããïŒ