国際収支と円高円安 Balance of payments and Exchangerate
国外に出て行くお金、入ってくるお金は事後的には一致するという話をしました。もちろん大型の海外設備投資や輸出代金の円への交換は給料支払いの時期や為替相場を見ながら決められるわけですから、一時期に集中したりします。だから短期的には細かく変動します。
前に示した日米金利差と円ドルレート重ねたグラフです。日米金利差の動きにつれてつれて円ドルレートが動いているのがわかると思います。これはどうした理由でしょう？米ドルは戦後長い期間を通じて垂れ流され世界の各国に外貨として蓄積されてきたことは前に述べたとおりです。これが投機資金となって世界を駆け巡っています。投資家はどう考えるか？金利の安い日本で円を借りその円をドルに換えて世界の高金利の国で運用しようと考えます。手持ちの資金だけでなく、借金でレバレッジをかけて運用しているのです。これ円キャリートレードといいます。これにより円売りドル買いが大規模に起こっているのです。これが現在の円安の原因です。今後どうなるのか？多くの投資家は米国の短期金利の上昇は限界に来ていると見ています。当初は来年の早い時期に利下げが始まるとみていました。投資家は先回りして考えます。数ヶ月先の状況を予測して投資行動を決定します。だから一時期円高に振れた時期がありましたね。今の状況はインフレが予想以上に根強いこと。失業率もほとんど完全雇用に近いところに張り付いているところから賃上げによるコストプッシュインフレが長引くことをFRBは恐れているわけです。FRBの構成メンバーからタカ派発言がされる理由です。そのたびに円安が進んだりする理由です。しかし相次ぐ利上げが永遠に続く訳ではありません。来年半ばには利下げに動くという予測を立てる人もいれば、高止まりしたまま来年年末まで続くという人もいます。どう動くかはだわからないという状況です。利下げに動くという可能性が優勢になれば、来年後半ぐらいにかけて1ドル＝135円くらいに向けて動き出す可能性はあるということです。こんな状況でFX取引やっている人の神経が私にはわかりません。CRAZYとしかか言い様がありません。前に株価予想は台風の進路予想に似ているというような記事を書きましたが、一定時期ごとにそれまでの情報を基礎にしてその都度情勢分析を変えル必要があります。
The discussion revolved around the fact that, in retrospect, the outflow and inflow of funds when it comes to international transactions tend to balance out. Of course, large-scale overseas investments and the conversion of export earnings into yen are determined based on factors like the timing of salary payments and exchange rates, which can lead to fluctuations over shorter periods.
The graph overlaying the Japanese and American interest rate differentials with the yen-dollar exchange rate shows that the yen-dollar rate moves in response to changes in the Japanese-American interest rate differential. Why is this the case? As previously mentioned, the US dollar has been widely circulated and accumulated as foreign currency in various countries over an extended post-war period. This accumulation of funds is now being used for speculative purposes and circulates around the world. How do investors think in this scenario? In a low-interest-rate environment like Japan, investors might borrow yen and exchange it for dollars to invest in countries with higher interest rates around the world. They not only use their own capital but also leverage their investments through borrowing. This practice is known as yen carry trade, and it results in significant selling of yen and buying of dollars, which is a major factor contributing to the current weakness of the yen.
What might happen in the future? Many investors believe that the rise in short-term interest rates in the United States has reached its limits. Initially, they expected interest rate cuts to begin early next year. Investors anticipate and plan ahead, making investment decisions by predicting the situation several months in advance. That's why there was a period when the yen strengthened. The current situation is due to inflation persisting more strongly than expected. The Federal Reserve (FRB) is concerned about cost-push inflation from wage increases as the unemployment rate hovers close to full employment. This is the reason for hawkish statements from members of the FRB, and it's one of the reasons for the ongoing yen depreciation. However, the series of interest rate hikes will not go on forever. Some predict that there will be interest rate cuts starting in the middle of next year, while others expect rates to remain high until the end of next year. The situation is uncertain, and it's not clear how it will unfold. If the possibility of interest rate cuts gains the upper hand, there is a chance that the yen may start moving towards a level of around 135 yen to the dollar in the latter half of next year.
In such a situation, I cannot comprehend the nerves of people engaged in foreign exchange trading. There's no other way to describe it but as "CRAZY." I wrote an article previously comparing stock price predictions to hurricane path forecasts, emphasizing that periodic adjustments to the analysis of the situation based on the available information are necessary.
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