トランプノミクス2.0が債券自警団を目覚めさせる

ドナルド・トランプが再選された場合の政策案

1. Inflationary Proposals:

   • 大幅な財政赤字にもかかわらず、2017年の減税を延長する。

   • 数百万人の不法移民を強制送還することにより、労働供給を減少させる。

   • 中国製品に一律10％の輸入関税と60％の関税を課す。

   • 連邦準備制度理事会の独立性を損なう。

2. 市場の反応

   • 市場はすでに反応しており、インフレ懸念を示す長期債利回りは短期債利回りよりも上昇している。

   • 賭け市場では、トランプ氏が勝利する可能性が69％まで高まっている。

3. ムーディーズ・アナリティクス・レポート

   • トランプ大統領が誕生すれば、特に共和党が議会を支配した場合、インフレが加速し、成長率が低下する可能性がある。

   • 完全な支配がなくても、インフレと失業率は上昇するかもしれない。

4. 市場の節度：

   • トランプは政策決定が不規則で、誇張する傾向があるため、彼の経済行動を予測することは難しい。

   • しかし、トランプは市場の反応に敏感であるため、政策を抑制する可能性がある。

   • 債券投資家は、インフレ政策を抑制するための「自警団」として、より高い金利を要求するかもしれない。

5. 歴史的背景

   • トランプ大統領の前任期は、NAFTA再交渉の際など、市場が乱高下した。

   • リズ・トラスの減税策に対する英国の債券市場の反応のように、市場がパニックに陥れば、政策の節制を余儀なくされることもある。

6. グローバルな視点

   • ポピュリストの政策に対する市場の反応は、ラテンアメリカでもよく見られる。

   • 市場はしばしば、ポピュリストの指導者に経済優先の妥協を迫る。

7. より広い意味合い

   • 経済だけでなく、トランプ再選は妊娠中絶へのアクセス、国際同盟、移民政策にも影響を与える可能性がある。

   • しかし、市場は経済問題に注目し、トランプ大統領就任によるマクロ経済の結果に大きな影響を与える可能性がある。

Trumponomics 2.0 Will Awaken Bond Vigilantes

Donald Trump is pitching policies that look likely to be inflationary. But don’t underestimate the dynamic relationship between markets and the former president’s mind.

Taken at face value, Donald Trump's proposed economic policies are highly inflationary. If re-elected, Trump could extend his 2017 tax cuts amid soaring budget deficits and dramatically curb the labor supply by deploying the National Guard to deport millions of undocumented immigrants. He might also push for a 10% across-the-board import tariff and impose 60% duties on Chinese goods, with allies potentially attempting to undermine Federal Reserve independence. Fortunately, market forces could nudge Trump toward more moderate policies.

Markets are already reacting to the potential of Trump's return. After a recent assassination attempt galvanized support for Trump, yields on longer-term Treasury securities rose more than those on shorter-term ones, subtly indicating that the market is wary of Trump’s inflationary threat. This trend, dubbed the “Trump trade,” has gained momentum since President Joe Biden's poor debate performance, with betting markets now placing Trump’s chances of reclaiming the White House at 69%, up from 52% a month earlier. Despite Trump and his fellow Republicans blaming Biden for the inflation of the past three years, the Republican National Convention offered few specifics on how they would perform better.

Moody’s Analytics issued a report in June suggesting that a Trump presidency with a Republican-controlled Congress would result in higher inflation and weaker growth than current projections. Under this scenario, Trump would likely use executive orders to implement policy, much like during his first term. While these moves would face legal challenges, Trump could still cause significant disruption. Even without full legislative control, inflation and unemployment would likely exceed current forecasts.

Trump’s unpredictable policymaking style and his tendency for exaggeration complicate economic predictions. However, Trump’s deep concern for market performance might moderate his policies. As president, he frequently cited the stock market as a measure of his success and publicly pressured Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell to lower interest rates—a move Powell resisted.

If Trump's inflationary policies proceed, bond investors might act as “vigilantes,” demanding higher interest rates to lend to the government. This month, Goldman Sachs Chief Economist Jan Hatzius suggested that a Trump trade war could lead to five additional rate hikes in the US. Higher rates would negatively impact the S&P 500 Index and hurt the popularity of Trump’s presidency. It’s unlikely Trump would let this happen without intervention.

Trump’s presidency previously caused market volatility, such as during the NAFTA renegotiations, which affected the Mexican peso and companies like General Motors and Kansas City Southern. Ultimately, the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) was more of a rebranding of NAFTA, with updates that included increased North American auto component requirements and new wage conditions.

Market volatility is not ideal, but it often promotes sensible policy. For instance, the UK’s bond market meltdown in 2022, following former Prime Minister Liz Truss's tax cut proposals amid high deficits, contributed to her resignation after just 49 days in office.

In Latin America, such market reactions are common during populist elections. These market "tantrums" often force leaders to compromise with economic priorities. For example, after Claudia Sheinbaum’s election in Mexico led to a peso depreciation, she appointed a respected finance minister to calm markets.

The upcoming US election has broader implications beyond economics, including potential impacts on abortion access, international alliances, and immigration policies. However, markets will remain focused on economic issues and will likely play a significant role in shaping the macroeconomic landscape of a potential Trump presidency.

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2024-07-16/trumponomics-2-0-will-awaken-bond-vigilantes