2024/8/29 投資ネタ

UG
#PG upgraded to Buy from Hold at DZ Bank

#MAR upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at Bernstein at 262
-出張需要の強さ
-Q2決算後の下落でﾊﾞﾘｭｴｰｼｮﾝ改善
--中国/米/ﾚｼﾞｬｰの弱さは注意
#FL upgraded to Overweight from Equal Weight at Barclays at 34
-positive compが維持可能に
--ｺｽﾄｶｯﾄ/ﾏｰｼﾞﾝ改善/在庫縮小
#NEM upgraded to Buy from Hold at Argus
-金の需要は強いまま
--地政学/ｲﾝﾌﾚ

DG
#CAVA Morgan Stanley Downgrades $CAVA to Equalweight, Raises PT to $110 from $90
-ﾊﾞﾘｭｴｰｼｮﾝ
--ﾌｧﾝﾀﾞﾒ/KPIはﾎﾟｼﾞﾃｨﾌﾞ
#OKTA downgraded to Underperform from Buy at BofA at 75
-Q3 cRPOの成長率が200bp予想以下
-ｺｽﾄの増加が当面重石になる
#KSS downgraded to Underweight from Neutral at JPMorgan
-ｱﾊﾟﾚﾙ/靴のｼｪｱ喪失
-SSSの改善が鈍い
--comp/天候の改善にも関わらず

earnings
#DG
×:Q2売上・EPS/FY25EPS・SSS(lowered)
-SSS +0.5%
-ﾏｰｼﾞﾝ悪化
-ｺｱ顧客の支出鈍化
#BBY
〇:Q2売上・EPS/FY25EPS
×:FY25売上
-SSS -2.3%
-ﾏｰｼﾞﾝ拡大
-ﾀﾌﾞﾚｯﾄ/PC好調
#CPB
〇:Q4EPS/FY25SSS
×:Q4売上・SSS/FY25EPS
-ﾎﾞﾘｭｰﾑ増/ﾏｰｼﾞﾝ改善
#OLLI
〇:Q2売上・SSS/FY25売上・SSS(raised)
×:Q2EPS/FY25EPS(raised)
#AEO
×:Q2売上・ﾏｰｼﾞﾝ
-在庫+4%
#DELL
〇:Q2売上・EPS
-ｻｰﾊﾞｰが大きく上振れ
#MRVL
〇:Q2売上・EPS/Q3売上・PES
×:Q2ﾏｰｼﾞﾝ/Q3ﾏｰｼﾞﾝ
-ﾃﾞｰﾀｾﾝﾀｰ+92%YoYも予想に届かず
--AI関連の需要は堅調
-企業向けﾈｯﾄﾜｰｸ/通信市場が回復に転じる
#ADSK
〇:Q2売上・EPS/FY25売上・EPS・billing(raised)
×:Q2billing
#LULU
〇:Q2EPS・ﾏｰｼﾞﾝ/FY25EPS(lowered)
×:Q2売上/FY25売上(lowered)
-Q2SSS +3% vs +5.63%e
-Q2 US SSS -3%
--競争激化/需要減
-在庫減
#ULTA
×:Q2売上・EPS/FY25売上・EPS(lowered)
-SSS -1.2% vs +1.32%e
-FY25SSS -2% to flat from +2-3%
-在庫 +10%
-競争激化(AMZN/WMT/TGT/Sephora)
-需要減
#GAP
〇:Q2売上・SSS・ﾏｰｼﾞﾝ
-在庫 -5% vs -1.6%e

個別株
#AAPL AAPL ORDERS OVER 10% MORE IPHONES FOR AI-ENABLED MODELS - NIKKEI REPORTS
#AAPL to heavily feature AI integration at 'Glowtime,' says Morgan Stanley
#ASML NETHERLANDS TO IMPOSE MORE CURBS ON ASML's CHINA CHIP BUSINESS
#TSLA Exclusive: Tesla asked Canada for lower tariff on China-made EVs, government source says - Reuters
#GS FED MODIFIES STRESS CAPITAL BUFFER FOR GOLDMAN SACHS
#BIG BIG LOTS CONSIDERING BANKRUPTCY FILING AMID SALES DECLINE
#YELP SUES #GOOGL FOR ALLEGEDLY ABUSING MONOPOLY POWER IN LOCAL SEARCH

TP関連
#AAPL Citi moves Apple to top AI pick going into 2025
-iOS18のAI関連も評判上々
-#GOOG の係争は織込み済み
#NVDA Piper Sandler Reiterates Overweight Rating and $140 PT
#NVDA PT raised by several firms
-ﾌｧﾝﾀﾞﾒは堅調なまま
--H200の売上も堅調
-B200の遅延は売上ｶﾞｲﾀﾞﾝｽにわずかに悪影響の可能性
-ﾏｰｼﾞﾝ見通しが予想以下/ｶﾞｲﾀﾞﾝｽが過去ほど大きくない
--B200はﾏｰｼﾞﾝ悪化要因
#CRM price target raised by several firms
-ﾏｰｼﾞﾝ見通し引上げ
-2Hの売上成長率に焦点移行
--売上は鈍化見込み/特に北米にて
-booking/cRPOは好調
--営業効率化/早期契約更改
#DELL price target lowered to $136 at Morgan Stanley on lower AI server shipments
-AIｻｰﾊﾞｰの出荷に遅れ
--FY25の出荷量も48k見込みが38k程度
--B200関連によるものでｼｪｱ喪失やｷｬﾝｾﾙではない
#CRWD Guggenheim Reiterates Neutral Rating
#CRWD price target raised to $295 from $285 at Barclays
#CRWD price target lowered to $310 from $330 at UBS
-IT障害の問題は来年まで影響する
--顧客対応を行っているが長期化
--影響を受けた顧客に割引を提供
#HLT price target raised to $261 from $217 at Bernstein
#H price target lowered to $178 from $185 at Bernstein
-出張需要の強さ
-中国/米/ﾚｼﾞｬｰの弱さは注意
#BBWI price target lowered by several firms
-product/mixでﾏｰｼﾞﾝ改善
-客足鈍い
-ｺﾛﾅ後の購買ﾄﾚﾝﾄﾞの収量が重石
--新規顧客が増えず
#HPQ price target lowered to $32 from $33 at Barclays
-印刷のﾏｰｼﾞﾝ低い
--競争激化
-Q4の見通しも悪化
--PCの回復が鈍い
#PVH price target lowered by several firms
-FY25の北米での収益性拡大の道半ば
-ﾊﾞﾘｭｴｰｼｮﾝは割安
--EPSが10%来年伸びる過程では
#AFRM Affirm reported 'strong ending to a wonderful year,' says Mizuho
#AFRM price target raised to $42 from $36 at BofA
-FY25Q4の黒字化で更に多くの投資家が買えるようになる
#OKTA price target lowered by several firms
-先行きの懸念を晴らしきれず/cPRO見通し下振れ
--SMBの需要改善せず
--ｾｷｭﾘﾃｨ問題が解決しても再加速せず
-FCFの収益性拡大が頭打ち
#PSTG price target lowered by several firms
-ｻﾌﾞｽｸの見通しが期待以下
--大きめの契約の締結が長期化
#SJM price target lowered by several firms
-ｲﾝﾌﾚによるﾎｽﾃｽなどの苦戦の長期化
#VSCO price target raised to $30 from $28 at Wells Fargo
-CEO交代後、2Q連続でﾋﾞｰﾄ
-需要改善
#ANF price target lowered to $165 from $193 at UBS
-ﾌﾞﾗﾝﾄﾞﾓﾒﾝﾀﾑは維持されている
--複数年の成長可能
-ｺｽﾄ増でｱｯﾌﾟｻｲﾄﾞが減少
#KSS share loss underestimated by the market, says UBS
#KSS price target lowered to $25 from $27 at Baird
-off price店舗にｼｪｱを奪われている
-消費者需要も鈍いまま
-ｺｽﾄｶｯﾄはできている
#Z price target raised to $66 from $60 at RBC Capital
-製品ｻｲｸﾙが複数年に渡って上昇
-新製品の評判も良い

マクロ・債券
(米国)
US INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS ACTUAL 231K (FORECAST 232K, PREVIOUS 232K)
US RETAIL INVENTORIES EX-AUTO ADV. ACTUAL 0.5% (FORECAST -, PREVIOUS 0.2%)
US PENDING HOME SALES CHANGE MOM ACTUAL -5.5% (FORECAST 0.2%, PREVIOUS 4.8%)
US AIRLINES HAVE CANCELED 1.6% OF FLIGHTS THIS YEAR, BELOW PRE-PANDEMIC LEVELS AS SUMMER TRAVEL HITS NEW RECORD -- USDOT
(欧州)
SPANISH HICP MOM FLASH ACTUAL 0% (FORECAST 0.2%, PREVIOUS -0.7%)
GERMAN HICP YOY PRELIM ACTUAL 2% (FORECAST 2.2%, PREVIOUS 2.6%)