2024/7/15 投資ネタ

UG
#AAPL upgraded to Buy from Hold at Loop Capital at 300
-ﾁｬﾈﾙﾁｪｯｸ:GenAIがかつてのiPhone/Ipodの様なｷﾗｰｱｲﾃﾑになることを示唆
DG
#EA | Citi Downgrades Electronic Arts to Neutral, Raises PT to $161 from $148
-college football期待
vs
-Apex Legends不振懸念
-GTA VIの出荷遅延懸念
-消費者ｾﾝﾁ悪化懸念
#CTAS downgraded to Sector Perform from Outperform at RBC Capital at 725
-ﾏｸﾛの悪化/雇用の伸び鈍化が重石
-CTASの雇用鈍化も成長鈍化のｻｲﾝ
-ﾏｰｼﾞﾝも一緒に鈍化
#BK downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Citi at 65
-Q2決算後の動きで好材料折込完了
-当面ｱｯﾌﾟｻｲﾄﾞ無
#BAX downgraded to Underweight from Equal Weight at Morgan Stanley at 30
-Hillrom買収以来低調
-ﾏｰｼﾞﾝが2019ﾚﾍﾞﾙに戻らない
#BP downgraded at Morgan Stanley following disappointing trading update at 41.5
-ﾄﾚｰﾃﾞｨﾝｸﾞ収益失望
#CZR downgraded to Negative from Neutral at Susquehanna at 33

#TRV downgraded at TD Cowen heading into Q2 insurance group earnings at 230
-保険金支払い増加懸念
-特に住宅関連損害がQ2/3に増加
#ON downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Citi at 77
-ｼﾘｺﾝｶｰﾊﾞｲﾄﾞがﾏﾙﾁﾌﾟﾙの重石
--成長率鈍化かつﾌﾟﾗｲｼﾝｸﾞ悪化

earnings
#BLK
〇:Q2EPS
×:Q2売上・AUM・net inflow
#GS
#AN AutoNation Warns CDK Hack Put a Big Dent in Quarterly Earnings - BBG

個別株
#SMCI Super Micro $SMCI will be replacing Walgreens $WBA in the Nasdaq-100 and the Nasdaq-100 Equal Weighted Index before the markets open on Monday, July 22nd.
#GOOG Google's parent company, Alphabet, is reportedly in advanced talks to acquire cybersecurity startup Wiz for around $23 billion.
#AAPL アップル、インドの売上高は33％拡大し過去最高－市場が急拡大
#GOOG Oppenheimer says Google/Wiz transaction 'positive' for broader security coverage
#CLF announced its acquisition of Stelco Holdings for an enterprise value of around $2.5 billion.
#M Terminates Discussions with Arkhouse and Brigade - SI

TP関連
#AAPL Morgan Stanley Raises PT to $273 from $216
-ﾄｯﾌﾟﾋﾟｯｸ
-FY26までに売上485B/EPS 8.7工場
--Apple Intelligenceは数年の買替ｻｲｸﾙに寄与
--FY25/26で500mmのiphoneを出荷見込み
#NVDA price target raised to $165 from $140 at TD Cowen
-ﾁｬﾈﾙﾁｪｯｸ:H/Bともに需要超継続
#AMZN BofA Securities Reiterates Buy Rating on Amazon, PT $220
-セールで売上前倒し
-旅行向けのﾃﾞｨｽｶｳﾝﾄも売上に寄与する可能性有
#AMD price target raised to $210 from $200 at TD Cowen
-ｻｰﾊﾞｰ向けの強い需要
-MI300/325の成長
-PC需要の回復
#AMD price target raised to $210 from $176 at Citi
#NXPI price target raised to $220 from $150 at Citi
#QCOM price target raised to $200 from $170 at Citi
#TXN price target raised to $200 from $185 at Citi
-半導体全般に強気
--AI/PC市場の安定/携帯/ﾃﾞｰﾀｾﾝﾀｰ/ｱﾅﾛｸﾞも改善
#TSM Needham Raises PT on Taiwan Semiconductor to $210 from $168, Maintains Buy Rating
-FY24売上成長率をLtM20sからMtH20sに引き上げ
-FY25のCapEx見通しを40Bから34Bに引下げ
--業界ﾁｪｯｸ:FY25の拡張計画はよりﾏｲﾙﾄﾞに
--5nmの設備を3nmに転用
#KLAC Citi ups KLA Corp. target, names top pick in semiconductor equipment at 980
#TER price target raised to $185 from $112 at Citi
-半導体製造装置はﾚｲﾄｻｲｸﾙに入りつつあるので選別要
-2025のｳｪｲﾊｰへの投資は120B-130B vs 116Be
--中国のBig Fundの恩恵
#AMAT price target raised to $275 from $240 at Stifel
#TTD price target raised to $120 from $105 at Oppenheimer
-connected TV/Eｺﾏへの移行が追い風のまま
-UID2での測定も追い風
-広告への支出も増える見込み
#NFLX price target raised by several firms
-新規会員数の増加が順調
-広告収入の増加
#ANET price target raised to $345 from $302 at Piper Sandler
-ﾁｬﾈﾙﾁｪｯｸ:AI/ﾃﾞｰﾀｾﾝﾀｰ関連の需要強い
#NET price target raised to $82 from $81 at Piper Sandler
-ﾁｬﾈﾙﾁｪｯｸ:PESを小幅に引下げ
#JPM price target raised by several firms
-FICC/IBD収益が予想以上
-株主還元の不透明感が重石
-株主還元のｺﾐｯﾄはないが5B程度はﾊﾞｲﾊﾞｯｸ見込
#C price target raised by several firms
-規制対応で追加ｺｽﾄ発生懸念
#WFC price target lowered to $67 from $70 at Evercore ISI
-EPS見通し引下げ
--予想以下のNIIとｺｽﾄ増
#BK price target raised to $75 from $68 at Barclays
-Fee/NII共に予想以上
-ｺｽﾄも予想以下
-引当もなし
#JCI price target raised to $72 from $62 at Baird
#TT price target raised to $360 from $344 at Baird
-ﾁｬﾈﾙﾁｪｯｸ：暖房/換気扇/ｴｱｺﾝの需要/ﾌﾟﾗｲｼﾝｸﾞ共に強い
#TAP price target lowered to $54 from $60 at JPMorgan
-Q2の出荷が低調
#ADM price target lowered to $63 from $64 at Citi
-ｸﾗｯｼｭﾏｰｼﾞﾝの上昇
vs
-肥料事業のﾀﾞｳﾝｻｲﾄﾞﾘｽｸ
#HAL #BKR #SLB PT lowered by Piper
-油田ｻｰﾋﾞｽのｾﾝﾁﾒﾝﾄはかなり悪い
#FAST price target lowered to $80 from $85 at Stifel
-2Hは更なる回復を見込むが予想以下
#HD price target raised to $380 from $374 at Stifel
-SRS合併後の見通しを反映
#MP price target lowered to $20 from $24 at Baird
-NdPrの価格低迷を反映
-EV生産の回復でNdPrが回復するまではｻｲﾄﾞﾗｲﾝ
#ULTA Oppenheimer cuts Ulta Beauty target, removes top pick status at 450
-ﾀﾞｳﾝｻｲﾄﾞﾘｽｸ有
-販促が強いまま
#BSX #SYK #ISRG TP raised at Morgan Stanley
#DXCM #ZBH TP lowered at Morgan Stanley
-ﾁｬﾈﾙﾁｪｯｸ:医療機器の需要は高いまま
-期待値が高いものは危険
#APO Citi ups Apollo Global target, opens 'positive catalyst watch'
#CG Citi opens 'positive catalyst watch' on Carlyle into earnings
-inflowが強い見込み
-新規投資も増えていく
#BX price target raised to $127 from $124 at Citi
#KKR price target raised to $130 from $115 at Citi
-Q2はQ1よりもいい環境
--新規投資も増える
#WEN Wendy's franchisee checks see comps growth below expectations, says Loop Capital
-ﾁｬﾈﾙﾁｪｯｸ:SSSが予想以下見込み
#CF #NTR #MOS PT lowered by RBC
-nitrogen/phosphaetの価格上昇
-potashの価格下落
-穀物価格の下落
#DHI #KB #LEN #PHM #TOL price target raised at Evercore ISI
-FY25ﾏｰｼﾞﾝ引上げ
#CNC #DGX #ELV #HUM
-長期的にﾎﾟｼﾞﾃｨﾌﾞｶﾀﾘｽﾄ有
--人口動態/value-basedケア

マクロ・債券
(米国)
NY FED MANUFACTURING ACTUAL -6.6 (FORECAST -8, PREVIOUS -6.00)
(欧州)
EUROZONE INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION YOY ACTUAL -2.9% (FORECAST -3.6%, PREVIOUS -3.0%)
(その他)
SWISS PPI YOY ACTUAL -1.9% (FORECAST -, PREVIOUS -1.8%)
Goldman Sachs cuts China 2024 GDP forecast to 4.9% from 5.0% and raises 2025 forecast to 4.3% from 4.2%.
Q2 GDP +4.7% y/y (Est. +5.1%)
1H GDP +5.0% y/y (Est. +5.2%)
June Unemployment 5.0% (Prev. 5.0%)
June Retail Sales +2.0% y/y (Est. +3.3%)
-販促にも関わらず消費伸び悩み
June Industrial Growth +5.3% y/y (Est. +5.0%)
Regarding the real estate market, cumulative real estate development investment in June fell by 10.1% YoY, consistent with May's decline. The average sales price of new commercial residential buildings in 70 major and medium-sized cities in June dropped by 4.9% YoY, expanding from May's 4.3% decline. This indicates that the real estate market remains sluggish despite the Chinese government's significant stimulus measures.
Swatch Shares Crash Most In Four Years As Profits Plunge On China Downturn
CANADIAN MANUFACTURING SALES MOM ACTUAL 0.4% (FORECAST 0.2%, PREVIOUS 1.1%)
CANADIAN WHOLESALE SALES MOM ACTUAL -0.8% (FORECAST -0.9%, PREVIOUS 2.4%)