Eponine #75 The Role of Regional Multilateral Institutions in the U.S. Indo-Pacific Strategy

Ms. Susanna Patton of the U.S. Research Center at the University of Sydney, who specializes in rigorous analysis of U.S. foreign policy, economy, politics, and culture, has released a report entitled "The Role of Regional Multilateral Institutions in the U.S. Indo-Pacific Strategy."

She joined the US Research Center from the Australian Government and was a senior analyst at the Southeast Asian Chapter of the Director of National Intelligence of Australia, Australia's premier intelligence evaluation agency, until 2020. She is currently a researcher in the Foreign Policy and Defense Program at the US Research Center.

A seat at the table: The role of regional multilateral institutions in US Indo-Pacific strategy — United States Studies Centre

It's easy to see how much time and effort she has put into producing this report by reading this report, which is her masterpiece. First of all, I strongly wanted to pay tribute to that.

Second, it's also surprising that everything this report says is true. As a strategist, I thought that I was arranging the matters to be taken up accurately without interfering with my personal feelings as much as possible.

In addition, it is understandable that the report makes optimistic recommendations in her opinion, which is the flip side of her pessimistic predictions.

Therefore, I think that the importance of the recommendations will become clearer if she can suggest what kind of situation the Asia-Pacific could face if her recommendations were not implemented.

In short, I understand that this report implies that the role of regional multilateral institutions in the US Indo-Pacific strategy is not significant and that China may become hegemonic in the region.

And, given the fact that ASEAN countries have been swayed by the way the United States approaches Asia, which changes like a cat's eye, it seems likely that the same thing will continue to happen. What happens next to Biden?

I'm tired of thinking about Asia around the national interests of the United States and being swayed by it.
Western analysts' reports on Asia always lack the perspective of thinking about Asia with a focus on the interests of Asia and aiming for Asia to have its own sovereignty. So the voice of the American president advocating human rights sounds like a sham.

Below is an executive summary of this report.　 However, I think you can better understand her opinion by reading the full report.

Executive summary
Inclusive regional institutions, including the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), the East Asia Summit (EAS), ASEAN Defence Ministers’ Meeting Plus (ADMM-Plus) and the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC), remain key components of a successful United States Indo-Pacific strategy.
Comprehensive engagement with these institutions benefits the United States in at least five ways, in that it:
- enables efficient access to a wide network of regional officials through sideline discussions;
- presents the United States as a positive regional player, committed to all countries, not just those with whom strategic interests most closely align;
- prevents China from dominating regional institutions and diplomacy;
- amplifies Washington’s voice on key regional issues and helps it shape the regional narrative in its favour;
- helps the administration focus its time and attention on the Indo-Pacific.
The Biden administration has laid a solid foundation for its engagement with these institutions by attending all key meetings in 2021. In doing so, it redressed the counterproductive neglect of the Trump administration, with President Trump never attending the annual East Asia Summit.
In contrast to the Obama administration, which made Asian multilateralism a key pillar of its ‘Asia pivot,’ the Biden administration appears to have relatively modest expectations for cooperation with ASEAN, the EAS and APEC, preferring the impact of narrower groupings of like-minded countries such as the Quad.
This shift reflects the trend of growing strategic competition between Washington and Beijing, which has eroded hopes that inclusive regional institutions would be able to promote dialogue and reduce the risk of conflict.
Moreover, the United States’ retrenchment from regional trade arrangements has also limited Washington’s interest in pursuing economic cooperation through existing groupings.
Failure to fully harness the potential of regional multilateral institutions would undermine the success of the Biden administration’s Indo-Pacific approach and would contribute to a perception that the United States is not fully invested in its relationships with Southeast Asian countries.
Australia continues to rely on regional multilateral institutions for access and influence. US disengagement would fatally wound these groupings and strengthen the weight of narrower groupings where China has greater influence, which would harm Australia’s interests.

Recommendations

The United States should continue to use the upcoming calendar of ASEAN, APEC and G20 meetings to drive focus, resources and official travel to Asia.
President Biden should offer to host ASEAN leaders for a special summit in the United States in 2022 to commemorate the 45th anniversary of its diplomatic relationship with ASEAN.
The United States should seek to upgrade its partnership with ASEAN to a Comprehensive Strategic Partnership at the next US-ASEAN summit, to be held in Cambodia in 2022.
The United States should develop a new flagship initiative on a mutually relevant topic, such as energy, to be delivered in partnership with ASEAN, to be announced at the next US-ASEAN Summit.
The United States should continue to invest time and resources in the ASEAN Defence Ministers’ Meeting Plus, which continues to offer important opportunities for security cooperation.
In developing its Indo-Pacific economic framework, the United States should avoid undermining existing relevant regional groupings, including the EAS, APEC and Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP).
The United States should prioritise its relationship with Indonesia, given its current and future influence within ASEAN.