米国株日誌'22 - 1/26; FOMC
FOMCの肝
①金利は次回から引き上げる
②金利引上げ後にBS圧縮の可能性←前回の２０２２年後半から前倒しに
③債券在庫６兆ドル弱の償還分から再投資に回す分を減らす(Adjustment)
金利引き上げのタイミング
…Job gains have been solid in recent months, and the unemployment rate has declined substantially.
the Committee decided to keep the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent. With inflation well above 2 percent and a strong labor market, the Committee expects it will soon be appropriate to raise the target range for the federal funds rate.
利上げの前提条件であるWith inflation well above 2 percent and a strong labor marketは、既に達成されているのよね。その手前でJob gains have been solidと明言。2％以上のインフレも自明。
債券在庫状況
2023年までに償還される債権は２兆ドル。３年後の２０２５年までにコロナ時期の対策で増やした３兆ドル分が償還される。
Reductions will occur over time in a predictable manner primarily through adjustments to reinvestments so that securities roll off our balance sheet.
As a reminder, this is what the #Fed’s balance sheet looks like. Moving to a balance sheet with primarily “treasuries” opens up questions of how the Fed can work down its MBS holdings given their long durations. pic.twitter.com/mSKJZMSYut
— Kathy Jones (@KathyJones) January 26, 2022
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