Is Google in danger?

Stock Price

Many news says that Google's stock price is going down sharply.
The below chart is Alphabet's stock price, which is the parent company of Google.
 

Certainly, the price is declining sharply since the begining of this year while it had been going up until the end of the last year.

The Factor of declining

Why is it declining?
In my opinion, the direct cause is decrece of its net income.
Let me compare performance of 2021 1Q-3Q with that of 2022 1Q-3Q.

Altotough its revenue is expanding, net income is decresing.
Forthemore, its net income had been going up from 2019 to 2021.
So, most of investors were shocked by the performance in 2022.   


The reason of Net income decline


Why did its Net income go down?
I think main reason is loss of held securities (debt and equity).
Look at the following chart.
This chart compare net income of 2021 1Q-3Q with 2022 1Q-3Q.
Orange box is a factor to decrease Net income.

Large orange boxes are "cost of revenue" and "Other Income (expense)".
If revenue goes up, cost of revenue also goes up.
So, in this context, up of cost of revenue is not important.
Other income or expense is critical.
This up of other expense mainly consists of loss on debt & equity securities.
Since the begining of this year, global financial markets are going down sharply.
Then, Alpabet's other expense went up and its Net income went down.
In short, its stock price down is not caused by its business performance.  
It is clear in the perspective of operating margin ratio.

Operating margin ration is a figure to measure main business perfomace.
Comparing the past ratio, that of 2022 is not bad.


So What

Why does its price go down sharply although its main bussiness perfomance is not bad?
In my opinion, global financial markets are in bubble.
In other words, a large number of investors who do not know even basic financial knowledge has entered the financial markets.
They perhaps can look at simple figures like Net income, however, cannot analize why Net income goes down and decide whether it is good or bad.
 Many such amateurs mak have looked at superficial numbers, got panic and sold its stocks sufficiently.


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