2024/7/31 投資ネタ

UG
#PYPL Bernstein Upgrades $PYPL to Outperform, Raises PT to $78
#PYPL upgraded to Buy from Hold at Argus at 75
-取引毎収益の改善を好感
--ブランド認知、Braintreeによるﾌﾟﾗｲｼﾝｸﾞ向上、Venmoのﾏﾈﾀｲｽﾞ化
-Eｺﾏでの機会が多い
-ﾊﾞﾘｭｴｰｼｮﾝも安い
#UPST Mizuho Upgrades $UPST to Outperform, Raises PT to $31
-ﾏｸﾛ状況改善
--低金利の恩恵/借手の信用力改善/ABSの債務不履行率の低下
--UMI Index改善/業界コメントの改善
#GLW upgraded to Buy from Hold at Deutsche Bank at 46
-DD EPS成長を数年達成見込み
-売上再加速にも関わらずﾏﾙﾁﾌﾟﾙが割安
#STLA upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Nomura at 21
-北米の問題に対するﾏﾈｼﾞﾒﾝﾄの姿勢を好感
-1Hの投資は売上減速の中で効果を発揮
-ﾊﾞﾘｭｴｰｼｮﾝ
#ECL upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Citi
#ECL upgraded to Buy from Neutral at BofA at 272
-決算後の下落でﾊﾞﾘｭｴｰｼｮﾝ改善
--2Q/2H見通し共に問題なし
--数年MDDのEPS成長が可能
--Institutional & Specialtyでﾏｰｼﾞﾝ拡大
--害虫駆除製品にｱｯﾌﾟｻｲﾄﾞ有
#LMT upgraded to Buy from Neutral at BofA at 635
-F35の納品再開
-抜きの需要拡大
#RTX upgraded to Buy from Neutral at BofA at 140
-Geared Trubo Fanの修理が続く
-MROの処理能力が上がりQoQで10%改善
#GPS upgraded to Neutral from Sell at BofA at 25
-ﾏｰｼﾞﾝ改善継続

DG
#MCD TD Cowen Downgrades McDonald's to Hold, Lowers PT to $280 from $285
-2Q決算と2Hの見通しを踏まえるとレンジ推移の可能性
-ﾌﾞﾗﾝﾄﾞ認知のためには更なる改善が必要
#ALB downgraded to Hold from Buy at Berenberg at 83
-ﾘﾁｳﾑ価格の下落
-希薄化のﾘｽｸ浮上

earnings
#HUM
〇:2Q売上・EPS
×:2QMLR/F24PES(lowered)
-MA加入者数を上方修正
-MAの使用率を巡る懸念が再浮上
--inpatientのｺｽﾄ増が2Hも続く
#DD DuPont Stock Rises After Earnings Beat. AI Is Boosting the Shares.
〇:Q2売上・EPS/FY24売上・EPS(raised)
Electronics & Industrial: $1.51B (UP 15% YoY; SSS +8%)
-Semiconductor Technologies: Sales up more than 20% as industry demand recovered.
-Interconnect Solutions: Sales up low-teens percentage, driven by broad-based consumer electronics recovery.
Water & Protection: $1.39B (DOWN 7% YoY; SSS -6%)
#TT beats Q2 consensus, raises FY guidance
〇:2Q売上・EPS/FY24売上・EPS・SSS +10% vs 8.9%e
-Q2 SSS +13%
-需要/ﾊﾞｯｸﾛｸﾞ共に堅調
#BG
×:2Q売上・EPS・EBIT/FY24EPS
-穀物市場の需給安定
-Q4のcrush marginは不透明
-ｱﾙｾﾞﾝﾁﾝ/ﾌﾞﾗｼﾞﾙの需要少ない
#TMUS Earnings Beat As Subscriber Growth Tops AT&T, Verizon
〇:Q2売上・EPS・ﾈｯﾄ顧客数
-客単価も予想以上 Yoy+2.6%
#KHC Reports Sales Below Analyst Estimates In Q2 Earnings
〇:Q2EPS
×:Q2売上
-SSS -2.4% vs -1.8%e
--北米SSS -2.9%
-北米・中国・ﾌﾞﾗｼﾞﾙの需要弱い
#MAR
〇:Q2EPS・EBITDA/
×:Q2売上/Q3EBITDA・EPS/FY24EBITDA・EPS
-Q2RevPAR +4.9%
--米国 +3.9%
--中国のRevPAR鈍化
-FY24RevPAR +3-4%
-ｶﾞｲﾀﾞﾝｽが鈍化傾向
--ﾚｼﾞｬｰのRevPAR+2% vs 団体旅行 +10%/出張 +9%
#BA
×:Q2売上・cashflow
-2Hも現金費消継続
#NCLH Q2 Earnings Results: Revenue In Line With Expectations
〇:Q2EPS・EBITDA・稼働率/Q3稼働率・EBITDA・EPS/FY24EPS・EBITDA(raised)
×:Q2売上
-FY24のﾌﾟﾗｲｼﾝｸﾞは強いまま
--FY25のﾌﾟﾗｲｼﾝｸﾞはFY24よりも強い
-onboardの支出に減少見られr図
-ｺｽﾄの一部分は3Qに更に改善
#HES Hess Non-GAAP EPS of $2.62 beats by $0.07, revenue of $3.26B misses by $30M
〇:Q2EPS・天然ｶﾞｽ価格
×:NGL価格
#MA Mastercard's quarterly profit jumps on buoyant spending
〇:Q2売上・EPS/
×:ﾏｰｼﾞﾝ
-消費者はﾍﾙｼｰなまま
-ﾏｸﾛ環境はmix
#WING
〇:Q2売上・EPS・EBITDA
×:Q2ｺｽﾄ・人件費・
-SSS +28.7% vs +19.6%e
-FY24SSS +20% vs 15%e
#AN
×:Q2売上・EPS
New Vehicle $3.12B vs $3.22B
Used vehicle $1.91B vs $1.97B
Parts and services $1.12B vs $1.2B
Financial Services $324.0M vs $352.1M
-CDKのﾊｯｷﾝｸﾞの影響有(EPS -1.55)
-GPUが予想以上/売上減をｵﾌｾｯﾄ

#QCOM
〇:Q3売上・EPS/Q4売上・EPS
-携帯出荷ﾍﾟｰｽは鈍いまま
-自動車需要 +811M vs 664Me
#META
〇:Q2売上・PES・ﾏｰｼﾞﾝ/Q3売上/
×:ad impressions/FY24Capex
-広告〇/広告単価+10% vs +6%e
-FY25にCapex拡大
#LRCX
〇:Q4売上・EPS・ﾏｰｼﾞﾝ/Q1売上
×:Q1EPS・ﾏｰｼﾞﾝ
#WDC
〇:Q4EPS・ﾏｰｼﾞﾝ/Q1ﾏｰｼﾞﾝ
-:Q4売上
×:Q4在庫/Q1売上・EPS
#MGM
〇:Q2売上・EPS・EBITDA
-ﾍﾞｶﾞｽの稼働率堅調
#CAKE
〇:Q2EPS
×:Q2売上/Q3売上
-SSS +1.4% vs +0.95%e
-FY24売上見通しｶｯﾄ
#AIG
×:Q2保険料・災害支払い・loss ratio・EPS
#ARM
〇:Q1売上・EPS
-ﾗｲｾﾝｽ〇/ﾛｲﾔﾘﾃｨ×
×:FY25売上・EPS
-CSS(Arm Compute Subsytems)への投資増加
-AIとCSSの採用増加
--ﾃﾞｰﾀｾﾝﾀｰ/ﾊｲｴﾝﾄﾞｽﾏﾎ需要〇
--その他では弱さがみられる
#CVNA
〇:Q2売上・EPS・EBITDA・ﾏｰｼﾞﾝ/FY24EBITDA
-小売/卸売販売台数
-GPU予想以上

個別株
日韓とオランダ適用除外へ、新たな米の対中半導体輸出規制－ロイター
#INTC to cut thousands of jobs as part of cost-cutting measure, Bloomberg says
Samsung bullish on AI demand as profit soars on higher chip prices - Reuters

TP関連
#MSFT price target mixed
-AI/Azureがやや弱く、ｸﾗｳﾄﾞ用のCAPEXが重石
-2HのAzureの再加速が懸念を帳消し
--AI/需要指標はﾎﾟｼﾞﾃｨﾌﾞなまま
-Officeのｶﾞｲﾀﾞﾝｽはcopilotの成功の証明
#AMD price target lowered by several firms
-Q2好調/Q3見通しmix
-MI300の見通し引上げ
--FY25まで好調継続見通し
#NVDA moved back to 'Top Pick' post selloff at Morgan Stanley at 144
-ｾﾙｵﾌによりいいｴﾝﾄﾘｰの機会
-ｶｽﾀﾏｰﾁｪｯｸ:GPU需要は強いまま
#PINS price target lowered by several firms
-Q3売上ｶﾞｲﾀﾞﾝｽは予想以下
--食品系の広告需要が弱い
--同業他社よりは良い成長率
-ﾊﾞﾘｭｴｰｼｮﾝも改善
-新商品などが今後の成長に寄与見込み
-2Hの投資増が重石
#ANET price target raised by several firms
-Q2/Q3ｶﾞｲﾀﾞﾝｽ共に問題なし
-MSFTからも受注の可能性
#GLW price target mixed
-Q2決算は広範にわたってよい
--Opticalに加え、Display/Specialtyも堅調
-耐久財(ﾄﾗｯｸ)は弱い
#SWKS price target raised by several firms
-携帯需要増の恩恵を受けている
-過剰在庫も削減
-AIによる需要増
#QRVO price target raised by several firms
-最大顧客による需要増の確認待ち
--次世代iphoneから搭載半導体が増えるはず
-ｱﾝﾄﾞﾛｲﾄﾞ需要は鈍化
-2025のYoY成長に自信

#ITW price target mixed
-EBIT伸び悩み
--溶接/ﾃｽﾄ部門が需要低下
#MRK price target lowered to $142 from $145 at Barclays
#PFE price target raised by several firms
-FY24のｱｯﾌﾟｻｲﾄﾞ有
-現在のﾊﾞﾘｭｴｰｼｮﾝはﾌｪｱ
#SWK price target raised by several firms
-見通し改善
--善速度は緩やか
-FY24のﾏｰｼﾞﾝ見通しがﾎﾟｼﾞﾃｨﾌﾞ
#SBUX price target lowered to $93 from $95 at Barclays
-中国の不調継続
-ﾏﾈｼﾞﾒﾝﾄは米国の復活に自信
#SYY price target raised to $88 from $85 at Barclays
#CZR price target mized
-Q2上振れ、ｶﾞｲﾀﾞﾝｽも明るい
-ﾗｽﾍﾞｶﾞｽのEBITDARは成長継続
-その他地域も改善
-ﾃﾞｼﾞﾀﾙ部門も好調
#MDLZ price target raised to $78 from $76 at Piper Sandler
-Q2EPSと売上ｶﾞｲﾀﾞﾝｽ小幅引上げ
--EU/ﾒｷｼｺの改善
#EQR price target raised to $85 from $80 at Piper Sandler
-ｱﾊﾟｰﾄ市場は通常の季節性に戻っている
--2Hに向けては値上げの恩恵が残り、FY25のいいセットアップ
#JBLU price target raised to $6 from $4 at TD Cowen
-2027までのEBIT 800-900mm増ﾌﾟﾛｸﾞﾗﾑ
--効率化/ﾈｯﾄﾜｰｸ増強/商品の最適化
#SYK price target lowered to $360 from $372 at BTIG
-FY24/25に100bpずつﾏｰｼﾞﾝ拡大できるかが疑問
--2H24の手術需要は強いまま
--新商品も投入される
#FSLR price target raised to $326 from $325 at Oppenheimer
-400MWの解約にも関わらずｶﾞｲﾀﾞﾝｽ据え置き
--pricingも堅調/需要も好調
-共和党ｽｲｰﾌﾟﾘｽｸ/AD/CVD規制に関する輸入の問題
#DENN price target lowered to $10 from $11 at Oppenheimer
-EBITDAｶﾞｲﾀﾞﾝｽ引下げ/予想以下
-7月のSSSはflatまで改善

マクロ・債券
(米国)
U.S ADP NONFARM EMPLOYMENT CHANGE (JUL) ACTUAL: 122K VS 150K PREVIOUS; EST 150K
US SETS QUARTERLY REFUNDING AT $125B, IN LINE WITH ESTIMATES
U.S EMPLOYMENT COST INDEX (QOQ) (Q2) ACTUAL: 0.9% VS 1.2% PREVIOUS; EST 1.0%
U.S CHICAGO PMI (JUL) ACTUAL: 45.3 VS 47.4 PREVIOUS
U.S PENDING HOME SALES (MOM) (JUN) ACTUAL: 4.8% VS -2.1% PREVIOUS; EST 1.5%
US INTEREST RATE DECISION ACTUAL 5.5% (FORECAST 5.5%, PREVIOUS 5.5%)
THE FED REPEATS DOES NOT EXPECT IT WILL BE APPROPRIATE TO LOWER RATES UNTIL IT HAS GAINED GREATER CONFIDENCE INFLATION IS MOVING SUSTAINABLY TOWARD 2%.
UAW: UAW ENDORSES KAMALA HARRIS FOR PRESIDENT AHEAD OF MASS RALLY IN DETROIT
(欧州)
ITALIAN INDUSTRIAL SALES MOM ACTUAL 0.8% (FORECAST -, PREVIOUS -2.8%)
ITALIAN PPI MOM ACTUAL 0.3% (FORECAST -, PREVIOUS -0.9%)
ITALIAN CPI MOM PRELIM ACTUAL 0.5% (FORECAST 0.3%, PREVIOUS 0.1%)
GERMAN IMPORTS PRICES MOM ACTUAL 0.4% (FORECAST 0.1%, PREVIOUS 0%)
FRENCH PPI MOM ACTUAL -0.3% (FORECAST -, PREVIOUS -1.4%)
FRENCH HICP MOM PRELIM ACTUAL 0.2% (FORECAST 0.3%, PREVIOUS 0.2%)
GERMAN UNEMPLOYMENT CHANGE SA ACTUAL 18K (FORECAST 15K, PREVIOUS 19K)
GERMAN UNEMPLOYMENT RATE ACTUAL 6% (FORECAST 6%, PREVIOUS 6.0%)
EUROZONE CPI MOM FLASH ACTUAL 0% (FORECAST -0.1%, PREVIOUS 0.2%)
EUROZONE CORE CPI YOY FLASH ACTUAL 2.9% (FORECAST 2.8%, PREVIOUS 2.9%)
-Not so bad: energy added 10bps while services declined 10bps, so underlying trend is weaker than suggested by numbers. Italy surprised on upside offsetting FR.
ユーロ圏インフレ、７月は予想外に加速－ＥＣＢのかじ取り困難に
(その他)
豪コアインフレ率、４－６月は予想外に鈍化－利下げ観測強まる
BOJ RATE DECISION ACTUAL 0.25% (FORECAST 0.1%, PREVIOUS 0.1%)
JAPANESE CONSUMER CONFIDENCE ACTUAL 36.7 (FORECAST 36.6, PREVIOUS 36.4)
三菱ＵＦＪ銀、普通預金金利を0.1％に上げ－短プラも17年半ぶり
台湾経済、４～６月は予想上回る5.09％成長－ＡＩ関連需要旺盛
China Manufacturing PMI 49.4 (est 49.4, last 49.5)
China Services PMI 50.2 (est 50.3, last 50.5)
China Composite PMI 50.2 (est -, last 50.5)
China Home Sales Slump Drags On Despite Latest Rescue - BBG
CANADIAN GDP MOM ACTUAL 0.2% (FORECAST 0.1%, PREVIOUS 0.3%)
コモ
OIL PRICES RISE FURTHER FOLLOWING REPORT OF SENIOR HAMAS LEADER KILLED BY ISRAEL
-Two assassinations, one in Beirut and one in Tehran, kill chances for ceasefire in Gaza and instead push the Middle East closer to a catastrophic regional war…all in the vacuum of lame duck government in US
EIA CRUDE OIL INVENTORIES ACTUAL -3.436M (FORECAST -1.1M, PREVIOUS -3.741M)
IRAN'S SUPREME LEADER ORDERS RETALIATORY ATTACK ON ISRAEL: NYT