2024/7/8 投資ネタ

UG
#GILD upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at Raymond James at 93
-HIV関連とｾﾗﾃﾞﾙﾊﾟｰﾙでｱｯﾌﾟｻｲﾄﾞ有
--数blnの売上貢献見込み
#SCHW KBW Upgrades Charles Schwab to Outperform and raises PT to $84 from $76
-ﾊﾞﾘｭｴｰｼｮﾝ
-sweep cashの問題は1H24でﾎﾞﾄﾑｱｳﾄ
#FSLR RBC Capital Reiterates $FSLR's Outperform Rating with $315 PT
-ALL RED懸念でIRAの恩恵剥落懸念
-国内製造に対するtax creditは超党派のｻﾎﾟｰﾄ
-ALL REDによる保護主義はﾎﾟｼﾞﾃｨﾌﾞの可能性
#SEDG upgraded to Neutral from Underperform at BofA
-在庫の償却と在庫過多がFY25まで続くというﾜｰｽﾄｼﾅﾘｵを織込済
-ﾏｰｼﾞﾝやCFの回復見込みが必要
#ECL upgraded to Buy from Hold at Stifel
-数年EPS成長率が加速可能
-EBITﾏｰｼﾞﾝも20%達成可能
#ALV upgraded to Outperform from Peer Perform at Wolfe Research at 133
-ｼｸﾘｶﾙｻｲｸﾙ懸念で下落したがﾊﾞﾘｭｴｰｼｮﾝ反映済
#DPZ  Baird upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at Baird at 580
-ﾊﾞﾘｭｴｰｼｮﾝ/ﾌｧﾝﾀﾞﾒ改善
-Hungry for MOREでﾄｯﾌﾟﾗｲﾝの伸びを数年維持可能
#PNC upgraded to Buy from Neutral at UBS at 179
-AOCIが改善していく
-ﾛｰﾝ需要に積極的に対応可能
#ALLY upgraded to Neutral from Underweight at JPMorgan at 45
-ｸﾚｼﾞｯﾄ/NIMの見通しが保守的すぎる
-ｱｾｯﾄｻｲﾄﾞの利回り更改でNIM改善
-預金ｺｽﾄももう上がらない

DG
#NOW downgraded to Sell from Neutral at Guggenheim at 640
-ﾊﾞﾘｭｴｰｼｮﾝ高い
--2H24のｻﾌﾞｽｸのﾘｽｸ
--2025までAI関連は伸びない
--米政府関連は2H22-1H23ほどの伸びはない
-SLED/海外政府向けも鈍化は補えない
#JPM downgraded to Peer Perform from Outperform at Wolfe Research
-NIIが金利低下で悪化する中で最高値圏
#STT downgraded to Underperform from Peer Perform at Wolfe Research at 73
-ｺﾝｾﾝｻｽが高すぎ
-NIIの減速が織り込まれていない
-fee収入もそこまで伸びない
#KEY downgraded to Neutral from Buy at UBS at 15
-ﾊﾞﾘｭｴｰｼｮﾝ
#CSX downgraded to Neutral from Buy at BofA
-volume/mixの悪化、コスト増加

earnings
#GLW Corning sees Q2 EPS at high end or slightly above prior range; raises Q2 revenue guidance
-AI関連製品の需要が好調
#XOM Exxon Mobil announced on Monday that changes in oil prices would boost its Q2 upstream earnings by $300 million to $700 million compared to the Q1.

個別株
#PARA Paramount Global has "agreed to merge" with Skydance Media in a deal worth over $8 billion, ending the Redstone family's control.
#BA has agreed to plead guilty to a criminal fraud conspiracy charge related to two fatal 737 MAX crashes in 2018 and 2019, resulting in 346 deaths.
#TSM TSMC's Taiwan-listed shares surged past NT$1,000, for the "FIRST TIME", mostly driven by earlier rumors of a price hike in 2025.
#TSM $INTC is reportedly moving to TSMC's 4nm node for their upcoming Xe2 “Battlemage” discrete GPUs, according to Digitimes.

TP関連
#NVDA UBS Raises Price Target on Nvidia to $150 from $120
-ﾁｬﾈﾙﾁｪｯｸ:B200の需要が強いことを確認
-NVL72/36のﾊﾟｲﾌﾟﾗｲﾝも2か月前より堅調
#GOOG price target raised to $187 from $168 at Wells Fargo
-2Q決算は強いが、先々の成長維持は困難
-ﾁｬﾈﾙﾁｪｯｸ:検索は通常程度
#META price target raised to $625 from $593 at Wells Fargo
-ﾁｬﾈﾙﾁｪｯｸ:広告収入が堅調
#TSM Morgan Stanley Raises PT on TSMC to NT$1,180 from NT$1,080, Maintains Overweight Rating
-2Q24やｶﾞｲﾀﾞﾝｽは期待をﾐｰﾄ
-ｳｪﾌｧｰの値上げと3D IC需要の強さ
#TXN UBS Raises Texas Instruments Price Target to $250 from $195
-ｱﾅﾛｸﾞ半導体市場の改善/9月Qも通常より好調
-CHIP Actの恩恵も想定より大きい見込み
#MU price target lowered to $120 from $150 at Lynx
-EPS見通しがﾋﾟｰｸｱｳﾄ
#RBLX Wells Fargo Raises Price Target on Roblox to $43 from $41, Maintains Overweight Rating
-ﾄﾗﾌｨｯｸﾃﾞｰﾀは使用率の改善を示唆
-2Qの購入予約額もｶﾞｲﾀﾞﾝｽ上限見込み
#PLTR Citi Reiterates Neutral with $25 PT
-ﾎﾟｼﾞﾃｨﾌﾞ:ﾌﾞｰﾄｷｬﾝﾌﾟ・効率的な販促によるAIP導入/民間向けが好調
-ﾈｶﾞﾃｨﾌﾞ:政府向けのﾃﾞｨｰﾙの不確実性/AIPのﾏﾈﾀｲｽﾞに時間を要する
#MTB Citi opens 'positive catalyst watch' on M&T Bank into earnings
-NIIは改善し始める
--預金ｺｽﾄはﾋﾟｰｸｱｳﾄ
#IBKR price target raised by several firms
-高金利の恩恵が続く
--ﾏｰｼﾞﾝﾊﾞﾗﾝｽ増加
-資本市場は厳しいままで、関係ない銘柄がいい
#BALL price target lowered to $66 from $73 at Citi
#PKG price target raised to $187 from $181 at Citi
-段ボール/包装需要を見直し
--値下げが響く見通し
#CSX price target raised to $36 from $35 at Bernstein
#NSC price target lowered to $285 from $288 at Bernstein
#UNP price target lowered to $273 from $290 at Bernstein
-Q2は小幅にﾋﾞｰﾄ可能な見込み
-マクロの懸念は残ったままだが、ﾄﾗｯｸ由来
#AXP price target raised to $268 from $240 at JPMorgan
#COF price target raised to $155 from $148 at JPMorgan
#DFS price target raised to $132 from $120 at JPMorgan
#SYF price target raised to $52 from $46 at JPMorgan
-NCO減少見込み/Q4-FY25Q1にかけて悪化
-ｸﾚｼﾞｯﾄｾﾝｼﾃｨﾌﾞな銘柄ほど引当減少の恩恵を受ける
#LUV price target lowered to $32 from $37 at Deutsche Bank
#ULCC price target lowered to $5 from $7 at Deutsche Bank
-LCCは需要あれど厳しいまま
-経済の鈍化も重石になる(特に国際線)
#PII price target lowered to $82 from $92 at Truist
-小売り需要弱い
-新ﾓﾃﾞﾙへの需要も弱い
#JBHT price target lowered to $160 from $162 at Morgan Stanley

マクロ・債券
(米国)
NY Fed inflation expectations:

1Y 3.0%, last 3.2%
3Y 2.9%, last 2.8%
5Y 2.8%, last 3%
San Francisco's AI boom can't stop real estate slide, as office vacancies reach new record
(欧州)
仏下院選の結果に投資家は当初神経質な反応、その後好感に転じる公算
FRENCH PRESIDENCY: MACRON DECIDES TO KEEP ON ATTAL AS PRIME MINISTER.
フランス、極右の政権獲得は回避－議会分裂で新政権成立は極めて困難
GERMAN IMPORTS MOM SA ACTUAL -6.6% (FORECAST -1%, PREVIOUS 2.0%)
GERMAN EXPORTS MOM SA ACTUAL -3.6% (FORECAST -2.8%, PREVIOUS 1.6%)
EUROZONE SENTIX INVESTOR CONFIDENCE INDEX ACTUAL -7.3 (FORECAST -0.5, PREVIOUS 0.3)

ECB'S KNOT: I AM COMFORTABLE WITH DISINFLATION PROGRESS AND MARKET'S RATE CUT BETS.
(その他)
JAPANESE ECONOMY WATCHERS POLL ACTUAL 47.0 (FORECAST 46.1, PREVIOUS 45.7)
英企業、過去最速ペースで新規採用の給与引き上げ－中銀の懸念要因に
中国人民銀、短期金利のコントロール強化－追加のオペ発表
UK'S CHANCELLOR REEVES: I WILL CONFIRM THE DATE OF THE BUDGET IN DUE COURSE. I HAVE ORDERED ASSESSMENT OF ECONOMIC INHERITANCE AND WILL PRESENT TO PARLIAMENT BEFORE SUMMER RECESS.
BOE'S HASKEL: THERE ARE CONSIDERABLE ENCOURAGING SIGNS ON INFLATION.
#China 's shipping futures tumble as Shanghai's long-haul freight rates to Europe post first drop since mid-Apr, prompting market expectation that freight rates are close to peak
コモ
欧州ガス先物が上昇、ハリケーン「ベリル」のテキサス接近を警戒
As China enters the traditional off-season for the construction industry in July and August, the demand for steel rebars is likely to decrease further.
Oil drops 1% as Gaza talks ease supply worries, Hurricane Beryl in focus - Reuters