2024/8/6 投資ネタ

UG
#NVDA upgraded to Buy at New Street after 26% pullback
-下落によりﾊﾞﾘｭｴｰｼｮﾝ改善
#CRWD Piper Sandler Upgrades CrowdStrike to Overweight, Lowers PT to $290 from $310
-IT障害の影響は短命かつ無視できるものとy祖億
-今回の下落でﾊﾞﾘｭｴｰｼｮﾝ改善
#CDNS Piper Sandler Upgrades $CDNS to Overweight, with a PT of $318
-下落によりﾊﾞﾘｭｴｰｼｮﾝ改善
--半導体業界の成長/CDNS自体の成長が重石だった
-Verificationが重石だが、ここが改善すれば成長改善
#APO upgraded to Buy from Neutral at BofA at 123
-下落によりﾊﾞﾘｭｴｰｼｮﾝ/ﾎﾟｼﾞｼｮﾆﾝｸﾞ改善
-10/2のｲﾝﾍﾞｽﾀｰﾃﾞｰ
-9/6 or 12/6にSP500入りの可能性

DG
#CG downgraded to Neutral from Overweight at JPMorgan at 44
-ｺｽﾄ削減には成功
-ﾊﾟﾌｫｰﾏﾝｽがさえず競争力低下
#AEP downgraded to Underperform from Neutral at BofA at 97
-ﾊﾞﾘｭｴｰｼｮﾝ
--平均成長並なのに3%他社対比ﾌﾟﾚﾐｱﾑが高い

#ZI downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at Raymond James
#ZI downgraded to Sector Weight from Overweight at KeyBanc
#ZI downgraded to Neutral from Buy at DA Davidson
#ZI downgraded to Underperform from Buy at BofA at 8
-Q2決算は失望かつ将来の期待もﾘｾｯﾄ
--2Q連続のｶﾞｲﾀﾞﾝｽｶｯﾄ
-小企業の未払いの償却悪化/

earnings
#CAT Rises as Profits Beat Estimates Despite Lower Sales
〇:Q2EPS
×:Q2売上
-pricing〇/volume×
-Q3売上はYoYで小幅に悪化見通し
-Q3のﾃﾞｨｰﾗｰ在庫もYoY unch見通し
--Q2を通じて在庫縮減
-機械は予想届かず YoY-4.3%
-ﾏｰｼﾞﾝは改善
#UBER reports better-than-expected results for second quarter
〇:Q2売上・EPS・GBV
×:Q3GBV
-ﾄﾚｰﾄﾞﾀﾞｳﾝ見られず
-どの所得者層も強いまま
#H
〇:Q2EPS
×:Q2EBITDA
-需要減でｶﾞｲﾀﾞﾝｽを小幅ｶｯﾄ
-Sees RevPAR +3% to +4%, saw +3% to +5%
#BLMN
×:Q2売上・EPS・SSS・ﾏｰｼﾞﾝ/Q3EPS/
-SSS -0.1% vs +0.57%
--SSS 3Q flat to -2%
#TAP Reports 2024 Second Quarter Results
〇:Q2売上・EPS
-price/mix +4%
-北米売上 YoY -1.7% 2.58B vs 2.48Be
#VMC
×:Q2売上・EPS・EBITDA/FY24EBITDA
-FY24出荷見通し -4% to -7%
-骨材のﾏｰｼﾞﾝは改善している
#YUM sales fall as weak US demand persists
〇:Q2EPS・ﾏｰｼﾞﾝ
×:Q2売上 +4.5%YoY
-SSS -1%
#GFS
〇:Q2売上・EPS・EBITDA
-YoYでﾏｰｼﾞﾝ悪化
#ABNB
〇:Q2ﾏｰｼﾞﾝ
×:Q2売上・GBV・予約数/Q3売上
-旅行のﾘｰﾄﾞﾀｲﾑは短期化
--labor dayは問題ないが、ｸﾘｽﾏｽは不透明
-北米旅行需要鈍化で予想以下

#FTNT
〇:Q2売上・EPS・billing/FY24売上(raised)・EPS
-ﾏｰｼﾞﾝ予想以上
#SMCI
〇:Q1売上/FY25売上・EPS
×:Q4売上・EPS/Q1EPS
-ﾏｰｼﾞﾝ:11.2%(Q3FY24:15.5%,Q4FY23:17.0%)
-ｻﾌﾟﾗｲのﾎﾞﾄﾙﾈｯｸで一部収益が先送り
-部品の事前調達でﾏｰｼﾞﾝ悪化
--FY25の終わりには回復見込み
#UPST
〇:Q2売上・EBITDA/Q3売上・EBITDA
×:
#RDFN

個別株
#NVDA Elliott says Nvidia in a 'bubble,' calls AI 'overhyped,' FT reports
#GOOG Google's antitrust ruling may influence tech competition, NY Times says
#TSLA CHINA RECALLS 1,683,627 CARS: CCTV
#DIS RAISES STREAMING PRICES AS MUCH AS 25%, ADDS CHANNELS

TP関連
#NVDA Rosenblatt Reiterates Buy Rating and $200 PT
#GOOG #AAPL Barclays sees Google and Apple as losers from DOJ ruling
-対応策次第なので結果判明はまだ時間を要する
-AAPL/GOOG双方にとって不利な内容
#GOOG #AAPL JPMorgan sees remedies directed toward Google, not search partners
-救済措置の証拠開示段階に移行し、結果が判明するには時間がかかる
--措置はAAPL/ｱﾝﾄﾞﾛｲﾄﾞﾕｰｻﾞｰなどに影響を与える可能性
--AAPLﾃﾞﾊﾞｲｽ上の検査はMSFT/OpenAIなどの検索ｴﾝｼﾞﾝに代わる可能性
#GOOG #AAPL Morgan Stanley says losing Google exclusivity could mean 4%-6% EPS hit for Apple

#AMZN price target lowered, removed as 'Top Pick' at Morgan Stanley at 210
-小売の売上改善速度が想定以下
--低APS/ﾏｰｼﾞﾝ商品の売上増
#META price target raised to $575 from $550 at Loop Capital
-広告事業の伸びがAMZNより強い
--AIにも機会あり
#MU price target lowered to $145 from $165 at KeyBanc
-Q1のQoQbit出荷成長率見通しが悪化
--携帯/PCは在庫再補充
--自動車/資本財/消費財が弱い
-pricingも弱い
#DKS price target lowered to $200 from $230 at Loop Capital
-ﾊﾞﾘｭｴｰｼｮﾝ
--消費需要の弱さもﾘｽｸ
#TSN price target raised by several firms
-鶏肉・豚肉〇 vs 牛肉×
-加工食品も下落継続
#AN #LAD price target raised to $160 from $155 at JPMorgan
-自動車需要は恐れていたほど弱くない
#PLTR price target raised by several firms
#PLRT Palantir shares to 'trade up significantly' on Q2 beat, says Citi
-Q2売上強い
--ｿﾌﾄｳｪｱのﾏｸﾛ踏まえるとかなり強い
--AIのﾏﾈﾀｲｽﾞに成功し始めている
-USの新顧客も強い
#CC price target lowered by several firms
-TiO2は安定
-冷蔵事業の下振れがﾈｶﾞﾃｨﾌﾞｻﾌﾟﾗｲｽﾞ
#MGA price target lowered to $50 from $55 at Barclays
-FY26の見通しｶｯﾄ
--成長と投資の両立は悪くない
#HTZ price target lowered to $4 from $5 at Susquehanna
-ﾚﾝﾀｶｰ需要は秋に向けて底堅い

マクロ・債券
(米国)
$SPY $QQQ | JPMorgan's co-head of global FX strategy says the carry trade unwind is only half complete and that the pain in markets from Monday has more room to run, stating, "we are not done by any stretch."
It's still too early to buy the dip in markets, Citi says
U.S TRADE BALANCE (JUN) ACTUAL: -73.1B VS -75.10B PREVIOUS; EST -72.50B
HARRIS CHOOSES MINNESOTA GOVERNOR WALZ AS U.S. VICE PRESIDENTIAL RUNNING MATE -CNN
US REDBOOK YOY ACTUAL 5.1% (FORECAST -, PREVIOUS 4.5%) $MACRO
US 3-YEAR NOTE AUCTION
BID-TO-COVER RATIO 2.55
HIGH YIELD 3.810% VS WI YIELD 3.812%
(欧州)
EUROZONE RETAIL SALES YOY ACTUAL -0.3% (FORECAST 0.1%, PREVIOUS 0.3%)
(その他)
６月の実質賃金、27カ月ぶりにプラス転換－名目1997年以来の高い伸び
UK CONSTRUCTION PMI ACTUAL 55.3 (FORECAST 52.5, PREVIOUS 52.2)
コモ
*HAMAS NAMES OVERALL CHIEF YAHYA SINWAR AS POLITICAL LEADER
US API CRUDE OIL STOCK CHANGE ACTUAL 0.18M (FORECAST 0.85M, PREVIOUS -4.495M)