2024/8/26 投資ネタ

UG
#BJ upgraded to Neutral from Underweight at JPMorgan at 78
-生鮮食品のﾘﾌﾚ
-ﾄﾚｰﾄﾞﾀﾞｳﾝの恩恵
-FY24ｶﾞｲﾀﾞﾝｽは保守的すぎ
#MAA upgraded to Overweight from Equal Weight at Wells Fargo
-2025は湾岸ｴﾘｱの成長有利
-取引増によりcap rateが過小評価されているｹｰｽ増
-Real Page訴訟ﾘｽｸ
-大統領選関連のﾘｽｸ
#OLLI upgraded to Buy from Accumulate at Gordon Haskett at 107
-ﾏｰｹｯﾄｼｪｱ拡大
-店舗閉鎖による不動産売却益
#XEL upgraded to Buy at Argus on data center potential, dividend growth
-ﾃﾞｰﾀｾﾝﾀｰ需要による追い風
-主要なﾊﾞﾘｭｴｰｼｮﾝ指標でも他社対比強い
-配当利回りも他社より強い

DG
#EQR downgraded to Equal Weight from Overweight at Wells Fargo at 77
-2025は湾岸ｴﾘｱの成長有利
-Real Page訴訟ﾘｽｸ
-大統領選関連のﾘｽｸ
#W downgraded to Hold from Buy at Argus
-住宅市場不興で家具も不況
-price check関連のｿﾌﾄｳｪｱへの投資も必要

earnings

個別株
#AAPL is reportedly exploring robotics, with plans to introduce a tabletop device by 2026 or 2027 that combines an iPad-like display with robotic features.
#LULU 'dupes' becoming popular on TikTok, WSJ reports
-AMZN製と競争激化
#INTC has hired Morgan Stanley, other advisers for activist defense - NBC
#RILY Announces Notification of Delinquency with Nasdaq - PRN

TP関連
#NVDA Blackwell timing delays created a buying opportunity, says Morgan Stanley
Loop Capital on $NVDA (Buy; PT: $175):
-B200の遅延は問題にならない
-H200はｼｪｱを伸ばしている
--TSMの生産拡大によりB200の問題を相殺可能
#AMZN Wells Fargo Lowers PT to $225 from $232, Maintains Overweight Rating
-Kuniperは長期的成長を見込むも初期ｺｽﾄが重い
--2025-27まで営業利益の重石
--透明感が出てくるまではﾏﾙﾁﾌﾟﾙ悪化要因
#CRM price target raised to $290 from $260 at Citi
-Q2決算はｲﾝﾗｲﾝ見込み
-2H下振れリスクはあり
--ﾏｸﾛ重石で消費量増えず
-ドル安がｻﾎﾟｰﾄに
#NKE price target lowered to $79 from $88 at Stifel
-back to schoolも競争激化
-ｼｪｱ悪化/新商品の反応度も低下
#LULU price target lowered to $329 from $404 at Morgan Stanley
-Q2EPSﾋﾞｰﾄ/ｶﾞｲﾀﾞﾝｽ引上げの可能性
--ただし低ｸｵﾘﾃｨな内容の可能性が高い
-show me storyは続くが、2Hは改善の可能性
#MU price target lowered to $140 from $150 at Needham
-出荷量はQoQで横ばい見込み
--決算時より見通しが悪化方向
-ﾏｰｼﾞﾝは拡大見込み
#BA BofA 'would not be surprised' if Boeing divested manned space flight business
-有人飛行ﾋﾞｼﾞﾈｽを売却する可能性
--starlinerの事故がNASAの不興を買った可能性
#ADSK one of KeyBanc's favorite early 2025 ideas
#ADSK price target raised to $316 from $295 at Citi
-ﾁｪｯｸ:Q2はmix/ﾁｬﾈﾙﾁｪｯｸ:ﾎﾟｼﾞﾃｨﾌﾞ
-2025は欧州のbillingの移行を反映
-ﾏｰｼﾞﾝに注力し始めるはず
#OKTA JPMorgan reiterates Neutral on Okta into Q2 report
-identity関連のｼｪｱは強いが、UGにはﾏｸﾛの追い風必要
-営業効率改善がﾏﾙﾁﾌﾟﾙ拡大に必要
-ｺｽﾄｶｯﾄはｻﾎﾟｰﾄ
#AFRM JMP Securities stays neutral on Affirm shares into earnings report
#AFRM Morgan Stanley Reiterates Underweight Rating, Maintains PT at $20
-AFRMの最大顧客の売上が堅調
-利下げによりｽｹｰﾙ拡大の可能性
-ﾊﾞﾘｭｴｰｼｮﾝが相応に高い
--規制ﾘｽｸ/GMV鈍化懸念
--AOIﾏｰｼﾞﾝ拡大の可視性が低い
#S price target raised by several firms
-7月後半より需要が強く
-1Hの需要の見解はmix～ﾎﾟｼﾞﾃｨﾌﾞ
--CRWDのIT障害でｼｪｱ拡大見込み
#MLM price target raised to $657 from $610 at Morgan Stanley
-2023/24に需要はやや減少も、ｾﾒﾝﾄのｽｰﾊﾟｰｻｲｸﾙ継続
-需給はﾀｲﾄなままでﾌﾟﾗｲｼﾝｸﾞが維持される
--LSDの成長継続
#AVB #ESS PT raised by WFC
-2025は湾岸ｴﾘｱの成長有利
-取引増によりcap rateが過小評価されているｹｰｽ増
-Real Page訴訟ﾘｽｸ
-大統領選関連のﾘｽｸ
#ZS price target raised by several firms
-ﾁｪｯｸ:Q4はbillingが堅調であることを示唆
-営業戦略も来年結実
-SASE市場は堅調
#CAVA price target raised to $90 from $77 at JPMorgan
-複数地域での成功は全国ﾚﾍﾞﾙでのｽｹｰﾙ拡大に寄与
-店舗の効率性改善もﾎﾟｼﾞﾃｨﾌﾞ
#AAP price target lowered to $45 from $64 at Mizuho
-売上/EPSの可視性が悪化
-Worldpacの売却も失望
#STZ price target lowered to $280 from $305 at Morgan Stanley
-scannerﾃﾞｰﾀが弱い
--depletionが期待以下の見込み
--ｶﾞｲﾀﾞﾝｽも期待値下限見込み
#FL price target raised by several firms
-SSSが小幅に期待以上見込み
-SG&A増加/ﾛｲﾔﾘﾃｨﾌﾟﾛｸﾞﾗﾑの移行でPESは伸び悩み
#SHW price target raised to $415 from $392 at Jefferies at 415
-MSDの売上成長率/ﾏｰｼﾞﾝの拡大見込み
#TTD price target raised to $120 from $109 at Loop Capital
-Q2の決算内容堅調
--広告購入者にとって重要なﾌﾟﾗｯﾄﾌｫｰﾑ化の証明
--ｼｮｯﾊﾟｰﾃﾞｰﾀをｴｺｼｽﾃﾑに統合し付加価値を向上

マクロ・債券
(米国)
As US rate cuts near, economic 'soft-landing' odds could dictate stock performance - Reuters
Darkening global outlook, central bank pivots signal more turbulence - Reuters
U.S DURABLE GOODS ORDERS (MOM) (JUL) ACTUAL: 9.9% VS -6.7% PREVIOUS; EST 4.9%
U.S CORE DURABLE GOODS ORDERS (MOM) (JUL) ACTUAL: -0.2% VS 0.4% PREVIOUS; EST 0.0%
U.S DALLAS FED MFG ACTIVITY (AUG) ACTUAL: -9.7 VS -17.5 PREVIOUS; EST -16.0
(欧州)
GERMANY AUG. IFO BUSINESS CONFIDENCE INDEX 86.6; EST. 86.0
GERMANY AUG. IFO CURRENT ASSESSMENT INDEX 86.5; EST. 86.5
GERMANY AUG. IFO EXPECTATIONS INDEX 86.8; EST. 85.8
ドイツ企業景況感、期待指数が２月以来の低水準－景気回復は頓挫
(その他)
CANADA TO IMPOSE NEW TARIFFS ON CHINESE EVS, STEEL, ALUMINUM
China central bank rolls over maturing loans, injects cash - Reuters
中国財政の脆弱さが浮き彫りに、土地売却収入は記録的な落ち込み
コモ
Oil up 2% on Libya shutdowns, Mideast escalation fears - SI
LIBYA EASTERN GOVT TO HALT ALL OIL PRODUCTION AND EXPORTS
Families flee after new Israeli evacuation orders in Gaza as ceasefire hopes dim - Reuters