2024/6/20 投資ネタ

UG
#BILI JPMorgan Upgrades Bilibili to Overweight, PT Raised to $21 from $14
-新作ｹﾞｰﾑで収益増
-広告が20+CAGRで2-3年伸びる
-ｹﾞｰﾑ/広告はﾏｰｼﾞﾝが高い
#SWKS upgraded to Buy from Neutral at B. Riley at 130
-ﾃﾞｰﾀｾﾝﾀｰでの推論需要/ｴｯｼﾞ向け需要
DG
#SPR downgraded to Hold from Buy at Benchmark
-BAによる買収が不透明
--ｴｱﾊﾞｽ関連資産の処遇
-BAの生産問題

earnings
#DRI stock rises as profit beat overshadows muted outlook
〇:Q4売上・EPS
×:FY25売上g・EPSg
-SSS +1.6%
-原材料/賃金ｲﾝﾌﾚが鈍化
-中所得者層以下の需要悪化
#ACN stock jumps 7% as AI bookings boost offsets an earnings miss
×:Q3売上・EPS/Q4売上g・EPSg
-新規受注+22%YoY(21.1bln)
--AI関連は900mln
#CMC
〇:Q3売上
-ﾏｰｼﾞﾝ拡大/堅調な出荷/ﾊﾞｯｸﾛｸﾞ増
--北米の建設/ｲﾝﾌﾗ需要が安定

個別株
#META INSTAGRAM RECOMMENDS SEXUAL VIDEOS TO ACCOUNTS FOR 13-YEAR-OLDS, TESTS SHOW -- WSJ
#SMCI Shares up 3% Premarket After Musk Says Co to Provide Server Racks for xAI's Supercomputer
#MCD MCDONALD'S WILL LAUNCH $5 MEAL DEAL ON JUNE 25
#CG #KKR #DFS Carlyle, KKR final bidders for Discover portfolio of student loans, FT says

TP関連
#AMD Piper Sandler names it a top pick; Investigated claims of a data breach by 'Intelbroker' but believes the breach will not have a material impact
#NVDA BofA Maintains Nvidia with Buy; PT $150
-AI関連ﾊｰﾄﾞｳｪｱの買替需要が巨大
-Blackwellの需要
-企業のon-premiseのAI需要の高まり
#META KeyBanc Raises PT to $540 from $475
-広告代値上げ
--AIによりｴﾝｹﾞｰｼﾞﾒﾝﾄ/関連性/効率性が改善
-6月半ばまで広告増
#TSM Bernstein Raises $TSM PT to $200 from $150
-ｶﾞｲﾀﾞﾝｽ上振れ
--ﾊｲｴﾝﾄﾞの携帯需要復活+先進技術ﾆｰｽﾞ
--N3/N5のｷｬﾊﾟﾌﾙ稼働
#MU | Wells Fargo Raises Micron PT to $190 from $135 - Overweight
-HBM3e需要増
-DRAM売上:FY24 17.8b to FY26 30.8b
#TSLA price target lowered to $227 from $293 at RBC Capital
-ﾛﾎﾞﾀｸｼｰ収益見通しを引下げ
--LYFT/UBERへの分配率が高い
#AMAT price target raised to $300 from $255 at B. Riley
#LRCX price target raised to $1,325 from $1,130 at B. Riley
-AI需要反映
#NET potentially embedded in Apple's new PCC architecture
-PCCｱｰｷﾃｸﾁｬにOHTTPが選ばれる
#AFRM BNPL pact with Apple could drive 35% potential GMV upside, says Mizuho
-Apple Payとの提携でGMV35%増の可能性
#NKE price target lowered by several firms
-北米のDTCが弱い
-中国の鈍化
#ANET BofA Raises Price Objective to $380 From $320
-ｲｰｻﾈｯﾄ反映
$CROX BofA Raises Price Objective to $187 From $160
#KBH price target raised by several firms
-金利ﾎﾞﾗあれど需要は安定
--低価格帯のﾌﾟﾗｲｼﾝｸﾞも安定
-現状程度のﾏｰｼﾞﾝ維持可能
-SG&A減少
#LEN price target lowered to $237 from $238 at Evercore ISI
-住宅地のｽﾋﾟﾝｵﾌの懸念
--ｽﾋﾟﾝｵﾌのｺｽﾄで自社株買い余力減
-3Qｶﾞｲﾀﾞﾝｽは総じて弱め
-4Qのﾏｰｼﾞﾝ懸念
#C price target raised to $69 from $66 at Keefe Bruyette
-ｻｰﾋﾞｽﾋﾞｼﾞﾈｽ成長期待
-NII減少ﾘｽｸ有
#ALV price target lowered to $134 from $139 at Berenberg
-ｾｸﾀｰ全体への逆風は有
--自動車需要がQ2は鈍化見込
-ｺｽﾄｶｯﾄ実施済で耐性が高い
#BALL price target lowered to $64 from $69 at Wells Fargo
-+2-3% CAGR見込みはﾎﾟｼﾞﾃｨﾌﾞ
-ﾊﾞﾘｭｴｰｼｮﾝは高い
#FIS price target raised to $88 from $85 at Barclays
-2Hのﾏｰｼﾞﾝ拡大と収益増期待
#HUM price target raised to $370 from $326 at Barclays
-ﾏｰｼﾞﾝ拡大期待

マクロ・債券
(米国)
U.S. home prices rose by 0.3% month/month in May per Redfin ... smallest increase since January 2023 and suggests more softness for price index from Case Shiller
Services Index from NewYorkFed slipped back into contraction in June (although still well off cycle lows)
US BUILDING PERMITS NUMBER ACTUAL 1.386M (FORECAST 1.45M, PREVIOUS 1.440M)
US HOUSING STARTS NUMBER ACTUAL 1.277M (FORECAST 1.37M, PREVIOUS 1.360M)
Initial Claims 238K, Exp. 235K, Last 242K
Continuing Claims 1,828K, Exp. 1,810K, Last 1,820K
US PHILLY FED BUSINESS INDEX ACTUAL 1.3 (FORECAST 5, PREVIOUS 4.5)
new orders up to -2.2
shipments down to -7.2
prices paid up to +22.5
workweek improved to +4.8
employment moved up to -2.5
(欧州)
MONTAIGNE: NATIONAL RALLY'S PENSION PLAN EXPENDITURES REACH €27.4 BILLION IN THREE YEARS
GERMANY'S IFO RAISES 2024 GDP GROWTH FORECAST TO +0.4% FROM +0.2% PREVIOUSLY.
talian Government to target 4.0%-4.2% deficit for 2025, as La Stampa reports. It was 3.7% for 2025 in the April stability
programme
EUROZONE CONSUMER CONFIDENCE FLASH ACTUAL -14.0 (FORECAST -13.8, PREVIOUS -14.3)
ECB'S KNOT: ON CORE INFLATION, NOT ALL THE SIGNS ARE GREEN YET.
Big Relief in OAT after auctions that went "pretty well", with bid to cover ratios slightly lower than usual.
(その他)
SNB surprises markets with a 25bp rate cut at its Thurs meeting (most assumed rates would stay unchanged), w/the reduction spurred by a further easing of inflation pressures. RTRS
BOE BANK RATE ACTUAL 5.25% (FORECAST 5.25%, PREVIOUS 5.25%)
China’s PBOC head said the central bank is studying how to implement bond trading, but rejected comparisons to quantitative easing. BBG
コモ
China sitting on the largest copper glut in years as manufacturers dial back consumption amid a price spike and soft consumer demand. FT
EIA CRUDE OIL INVENTORIES ACTUAL -2.547M (FORECAST -2.8M, PREVIOUS 3.730M)
EIA GASOLINE INVENTORIES ACTUAL -2.280M (FORECAST 1.05M, PREVIOUS 2.566M)