2023 July 17, Market Wrapup

.――――――――――――――――――― 7月17日 (月) ――
◆国内経済
　★国内市場休場（海の日）
■黒海穀物協定満了: 黒海穀物協定、現状を維持する根拠なし＝ロシア大使
[7月 ３日 ロイター] ロシアのガチロフ駐ジュネーブ国際機関代表部大使は、黒海経由の穀物輸出に関する協定が期限切れとなる18日について、現状を維持する根拠はないと述べました。彼は、ロシア農業銀行のSWIFTシステムへのアクセス回復など、協定延長に向けたロシア側の条件の履行が滞っていると指摘しました。また、国連は新たな船舶の登録が遅れていることに懸念を表明しました。ガチロフ氏はウクライナ危機についても言及し、外交的解決に前向きではあるが、ウクライナと西側諸国が軍事力行使に賭け続けていることから先行きは暗いと認識しています。

◆国際経済ｅｔｃ: 実体指標の不振延長の可能性
　★中国4-6月期GDP (11:00)
23/07/17 11:00 中国 実質GDP (前年比) 2Q ★★★ +7.1 ％ +6.3 ％ +4.5 ％
23/07/17 11:00 中国 実質GDP (前期比) 2Q +0.8 ％ +0.8 ％ +2.2 ％
　★中国6月小売売上高 (11:00)
23/07/17 11:00 中国 小売売上高 (前年比) 6月 ★★ +3.3 ％ +3.1 ％ +12.7 ％
23/07/17 11:00 中国 小売売上高[年初来] (前年比) 6月 ★ +8.0 ％ +8.2 ％ +9.3 ％
　★中国6月鉱工業生産 (11:00)
23/07/17 11:00 中国 鉱工業生産 (前年比) 6月 ★★★ +2.5 ％ +4.4 ％ +3.5 ％
23/07/17 11:00 中国 鉱工業生産[年初来] (前年比) 6月 ★★ +3.5 ％ +3.8 ％ +3.6 ％
　★中国1-6月固定資産投資 (11:00)
23/07/17 11:00 中国 固定資産投資[都市部/年初来] (前年比) 6月 ★ +3.4 ％ +3.8 ％ +4.0 ％
　・米国7月ニューヨーク連銀製造業景気指数 (21:30)
23/07/17 21:30 米国 ニューヨーク連銀製造業景気指数 7月 ★★★ -3.5 +1.1 +6.6

1. US stocks resumed their rally as investors weighed bets that the Federal Reserve's interest-rate hikes are nearing an end against evidence of a slowdown in China's economy. The S&P 500 rose 0.4%, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 rose 0.8%, adding to last week's historic gains amid hopes that the Fed will soon be able to declare victory over inflation.

2. Activision Blizzard gained after Microsoft and British regulators held "productive" talks to finalize the $69 billion merger. Ford fell after lowering the price of its electric F-150 truck. The dollar fluctuated, and equities in Europe and mainland China fell after China's GDP grew at a slower-than-expected rate in the second quarter, raising risks to the global economy.

3. Yellen believes the United States is on a "good path" to lowering inflation without causing a significant contraction in the labor market.

4. Russia Tells UN Shipping Agency IMO: The end of Black Sea Grain Deal means that the 'guarantees for safety of navigation issued by the Russian side will be revoked' - Letter Excerpt Seen.

   1. Kremlin: The Black Sea Grain Agreement has expired as of today.

5. ECB's Nagel: I expect a 25 basis-point hike in July.

6. US Treasury Secretary Yellen: I don't expect a recession in the US.

7. Bundesbank: Germany's GDP recovery may be weaker in remainder of 2023 than implied in June forecasts.

8. Sony (SONY) signed an agreement with Microsoft (MSFT) to keep Activision's (ATVI) "Call of Duty" franchise on PlayStation

9. Paramount's (PARA) "Mission: Impossible -- Dead Reckoning Part One" won the box office this past weekend, but with a total that missed expectations, while The Wall Street Journal is reporting that parent company National Amusements is in talks with its creditors

10. Tesla (TSLA) has begun Cybertruck production

11. 3D Systems (DDD) expects Stratasys' (SSYS) merger with Desktop Metal (DM) to be terminated as Stratasys has agreed to engage in discussions with 3D about a deal

12. Ford (F) will increase plant capacity in an effort to lower the MSRP of the F-150 Lightning

13. Nissan (NSANY) is recalling 1.38M vehicles around the globe, Bloomberg reports

14. ZimVie (ZIM) is considering its strategic alternatives after receiving inbound acquisition approaches, Dealreporter says

15. United Airlines (UAL) and its pilots have reached a four-year agreement, NY Times says

16. After contract talks broke down between the company and the union representing 340,000 of its employees, UPS (UPS) said it will train nonunion employees in the U.S. to step in if there is a strike, AP reports

17. Tesla (TSLA) outlined a plan to create the largest auto plant in Germany, WSJ reports

18. BridgeBio (BBIO) advances after reporting results from its Phase 2 study of ATTR-CM

19. Argenx (ARGX) rises in New York after announcing with Zai Lab (ZLAB) that the ADHERE study its primary endpoint

20. Black Knight (BKI) higher after announcing Constellation's (CNSWF) Perseus Group will acquire its Optimal Blue for $700M

21. Frontier Communications (FYBR) falls after Citi downgraded the stock to Neutral

22. Leslie's (LESL) lower after Jefferies became the latest firm to downgrade the stock

23. GreenPower Motor (GP) reported Q4 results, with CEO Fraser Atkinson commencing the company "continued with record-setting revenues and deliveries in the fourth quarter"

24. Rekor Systems (REKR) provided Q2 guidance

25. Amalgamated Financial (AMAL) reported preliminary Q2 results

26. Sanuwave Health (SNWV) reported preliminary Q2 results

27. Washington Federal (WAFD) reported Q3 EPS that missed consensus

28. Goldman Sachs upgraded Chewy (CHWY) to Buy from Neutral with a price target of $50, up from $39. The firm sees a more positive risk/reward skew at current levels and is increasingly more positive on Chewy's ability to maintain 10%-plus sales growth from 2023 to 2027.

29. Goldman Sachs upgraded Yelp (YELP) to Buy from Neutral with a price target of $47, up from $39. The firm sees a "broadly stable-to-improving environment" for digital advertising in Q2 against lowered expectations.

30. JPMorgan upgraded Progressive (PGR) to Overweight from Neutral with an unchanged price target of $146. The company's June results were "poor" but do not alter the long-term view of the company's earnings power and growth potential, JPMorgan tells investors in a research note.

31. B. Riley upgraded Cohu (COHU) to Buy from Neutral with a price target of $50, up from $38. The firm believes a "slew of substantive" operations and product gains are underway this downcycle to position the company for strong revenue acceleration with gross margin expansion when spending inflects.

32. Jefferies upgraded Paccar (PCAR) to Buy from Hold with a price target of $115, up from $85. The firm believes chances for a meaningful truck downturn in 2024 are fading, and continues to expect strong industry growth in 2025-2026 ahead of 2027 emissions regulations.

33. Morgan Stanley downgraded PepsiCo (PEP) to Equal Weight from Overweight with an unchanged price target of $210 following the "strong" Q2 report. The shares are now fairly valued post the large outperformance as the catalysts played out, the firm says.

34. Odeon Capital downgraded Wells Fargo (WFC) to Hold from Buy with a $43.75 price target. While the reported earnings of $1.25 per share for Q2 were "positive," a deeper look into the company's results "suggests that it seems to have stalled in its recovery" and it appears that the company's real book value is "well below its stated book value," the firm tells investors.

35. Piper Sandler downgraded Twilio (TWLO) to Neutral from Overweight with a price target of $71, up from $56. While Twilio may be finding more stability than prior quarters as crypto and other headwinds abate, the macro environment uncertainty and recent divestitures will create "messiness" for sales estimates ahead that are likely too high, says the firm.

36. Citi downgraded AT&T (T) to Neutral from Buy with a price target of $16, down from $22. The firm believes the telecommunication industry's historical use of lead sheathed cabling is likely to remain an overhang for the stocks and valuations for at least a few months and potentially longer until the market can better measure the financial risk.

37. KeyBanc downgraded Yeti (YETI) to Underweight from Sector Weight with a $34 price target ahead of quarterly results. Building on intra-quarter work, the firm thinks recent price action, macro pressures, competitor brand heat, and heavy inventory add risk to Q4+ results and the return to a positive double-digit annual growth algorithm.

38. Barclays initiated coverage of Saia (SAIA) with an Overweight rating and $420 price target. Saia is likely to continue gaining market share through its ongoing expansion strategy, with further earnings upside driven by mix improvements and closing a pricing gap to peers, the firm tells investors in a research note.

39. BofA resumed coverage of Lucid Group (LCID) with a Neutral rating and $8 price target. The firm has reduced its Q2 and 2023 EBIT estimates after Q2 deliveries came in below its forecast and although it is not making meaningful adjustments for 2024 and later, BofA notes that it plans to revisit this following additional commentary during earnings reporting.

40. Barclays initiated coverage of Old Dominion Freight Line (ODFL) with an Equal Weight rating and $375 price target. The firm expects Old Dominion to continue gaining share over the next cycle, but with competition improving service, it expects the company's volume outperformance to be a bit less than in years past.

41. Citi initiated coverage of BeiGene (BGNE) with a Buy rating and $275 price target. Citi's survey of 85 U.S. hematologists/oncologists suggests BeiGene's flagship asset Brukinsa is positioned to become the favored BTK inhibitor for chronic lymphocytic leukemia patients starting first-line therapy.

42. HSBC initiated coverage of Epam Systems (EPAM) with a Hold rating and $255 price target. The firm believes the company's gross margins are likely to remain below peers and that its earnings momentum "looks weak in the short term."

43. NYダウ ▲0.22% 34,585.35

44. NASDAQ ▲0.93% 14,244.95

45. S&P500 ▲0.39% 4,522.79

46. WTI原油 ▼0.11% 74.00

47. Brent原油 ▼1.63% 78.57

48. ドル円 138.683 ▼0.02%

49. ユーロ円 155.878 ▲0.01%

50. ポンド円 181.30 0.00%

51. ユーロドル 1.1239 ▲0.04%

52. ドルインデックス 99.880 ▼0.03%

53. ビットコイン 4,177,769 ▼0.60%

54. 日経先物 ラージ 大取 32,340.00

55. 日経先物 SGX 32,340.00

56. 日経先物 CME 32,355.00