住宅投資に響く、都会と田舎の住宅事情の格差　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　気ままなリライト１０８

住宅着工、資材高が冷やす - 日本経済新聞

The waning investment in new housing construction in Japan has reflected the nation's deep-seated demographic and socio-cultural challenges. This downward trend has underscored a complex interplay of economic and social factors, illustrating a dilemma too intricate for the housing industry alone to resolve. In Japan's urban areas, the ongoing struggle with land scarcity and elevated construction costs has remained unabated, despite surging demand for new, upscale housing that remains out of reach for most city dwellers. By contrast, many rural regions have been suffering from a declining population and a surplus of existing houses, leading to a diminished need for new construction.

The Japan’s housing construction market has been undergoing a severe contraction, reminiscent of the aftermaths of the Lehman Shock and the Great East Japan Earthquake. Recent data from the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism, using a three-month moving average revealed a glimpse of the harsh reality. In September, the average number of housing units constructed plummeted to 66,300, marking a 7.7 % year-on-year decrease. This was the lowest since December 2011, following the Great East Japan Earthquake. Particularly hard-hit was the condominium market, which felt a seismic 13.3 % year-on-year drop to 18,700 units. Similarly, the market for single-family houses received a disturbing splash of an 8.8 % dive, with just 19,100 units built, continuing a 21-month downward trend.

The decline in new house construction across Japan’s urban and rural areas has linked to several intertwined factors. The economic uncertainty has been deterring all but the wealthiest residents from investing in new properties, with many opting for more affordable, often rented accommodations instead of buying new houses or condos. This situation has been worsened by the demographic shift peculiar to Japan. A rapidly aging population has reduced overall demand for new housing and contributed to a labor shortage in the construction sector, as fewer young people are entering the workforce. High construction costs, fueled by the rising prices for materials and labor, further have dissuaded prospective houseowners. The Construction Cost Index for Reinforced Concrete Apartment Buildings, which reflects the cost of key materials like reinforced concrete and steel, impacted by global market trends, underscored this point. In September 2023, this index recorded a 20% surge, compared with the same period in 2018, indicating a significant rise in construction expenses.

The downward trend in new housing construction in urban areas, especially big cities like Tokyo is echoing the real estate landscape different from that in rural regions in Japan. The metropolitan hubs, grappling with high population density, are facing a crunch in available land for development. The scarcity of land is driving up the real estate prices. That is turning prime properties into a magnet for investors, particularly those from affluent sectors seeking profitable opportunities. The price escalation due to speculation in urban properties is creating unclearable barriers for average or lower-income households. The desirable vision of owning new housing in those urban settings is becoming increasingly elusive as a pipe dream for a large majority of households. Insights from the market research conducted by Real Estate Economic Institute Co, Ltd in Shinjuku Ward, Tokyo, are underscoring this trend. Their data is revealing a sharp increase in the average price of new condominiums in the Tokyo metropolitan area, with the prices jumping from 58 million yen in 2018 to an astonishing 78.36 million yen in the latter half of 2023. Another research by Tokyo Kantei is drawing attention to the skyrocketing value of new houses within Tokyo’s 23 Wards. Those properties is hitting unprecedented highs, with the most sought-after residences by wealthy house buyers and investors at home and abroad, now surpassing the 90 million yen mark on average.

Rural Japan’s real estate landscape has presented a stark contrast to its urban counterparts, particularly evident in the decline in new house construction. The country’s depopulation has been acutely felt in rural regions, with the migration of younger generations to cities leaving an aging population in solitude. Local economies in those rural regions have been weakening, diminishing both investment and incentive for new housing developments. Over the years, the situation has led to a surplus of vacant houses, a testament to the unchecked overbuilding in the construction industry. A survey by the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism highlighted this imbalance. As of 2018, there were 1.16 residential properties for every household in Japan. The rural regions, in particular, have been bearing the brunt of this oversupply. That has been indicated by the analytic findings that in 2020, Japan’s rate of housing construction per thousand people surpassed that in countries like France and the U.S.