被災危機感の差、災害復興準備にバラツキ 気ままなリライト146
When sensationalized portrayals of potential disasters foster a fatalistic mindset—where people see disasters as inevitable and uncontrollable and believe that preparation and mitigation efforts are futile—the Japanese government has taken a different approach. They have been framing preparedness activities in a positive light, emphasizing empowerment, resilience, and community strength rather than fear and helplessness. The government has been focusing on how envisioning post-disaster scenarios can shape effective recovery plans at the municipal level. Despite a gap in disaster risk perception among municipalities, some are viewing disasters as manageable, predictable, and preventable challenges. Those municipalities are standing out as models, believing that well-thought-out preparedness plans can mitigate disaster impacts and support a faster post-disaster recovery.
Since 2019, the government has implemented an evaluation system to raise awareness about the importance of disaster preparedness activities and post-disaster recovery initiatives. This system provides guidelines for municipalities across the country and evaluates their commitment to post-disaster recovery planning annually. The evaluation considers five criteria; advocating policies that support disaster risk reduction and recovery planning, familiarizing with crisis management procedures, enhancing communal resilience through regular preparedness drills, analyzing scientific data and historical examples to anticipate disaster patterns, and developing goal-oriented strategies for disaster preparedness and recovery. Each criterion is classified into three stages—acting, being deliberate, and no discussion—with scores assigned as 20, 10, and 0, respectively.
The scores for each municipality within a prefecture, along with the total scores for each prefecture, highlighted disparities in the sense of crisis. Driven by worst-case scenario planning for the aftermath of Nankai Trough Earthquake, Tokushima Prefecture achieved the highest average score among municipalities within a prefecture, followed by Tokyo and Shizuoka. The national average score was 26.1, significantly lower than Tokushima's average of 53.2. Notably, nearly 600 municipalities did not address any of the criteria in their agendas.
The municipalities with perfect scores are focusing on resilience, aiming to showcase how communities can successfully recover and even thrive post-disaster. By vividly and realistically picturing the worst-case scenario and putting themselves in victims' shoes as a real possibility, those municipalities with perfect scores are viewing disasters as opportunities for adaptation and improvement. They are seeking to build safer and more resilient communities, promoting the concept of "building back better" and encouraging reconstruction and recovery efforts that enhance future resilience.
Among the municipalities with perfect scores is Tokushima’s Kaiyo Town, located in waterfront areas along the Pacific Ocean. With strong policy directives for detailed recovery planning, the municipality has been focusing on effective crisis management. In fiscal 2021, the municipality developed recovery guidelines based on simulations of predicted damage from a potential Nankai Trough Earthquake. Those guidelines include calculations for the required area for temporary disaster waste storage and the number of temporary housing units needed. Also, by integrating relevant departments, the municipality ensures a unified command structure, aiming to enhance public trust through effective communication channels between municipal authorities and the public during the aftermath of a disaster. Training programs for town officials familiarize them with recovery procedures, including workshops with town residents to discuss the safest methods, such as mapping out multiple evacuation routes and relocating communities to higher ground after a disaster.
“Balancing imagined worst-case scenarios with positive messages about successful preparedness and recovery efforts, without sensationalizing potential disasters, is key to stopping the trend of depopulation due to exodus from Kaiyo Town to cities,” says Shigeki Miura, the town mayor. With a population of just 8,300, which has seen a 10% reduction over the past five years due to a growing aging population, fostering a sense of belonging through preparedness activities is essential for the town’s survival. Participation in those activities encourages local residents to feel connected and invested in their community, creating a positive feedback loop that benefits everyone. A 43-year-old local resident says, “Community-wide drills based on imagined scenarios educate my children on what to do during a disaster, reducing feelings of helplessness and strengthening their emotional attachment to the town.”
The geographical characteristic of whether a municipality faces the Pacific Ocean has led to varying levels of urgency and differences in their preparations for Nankai Trough Earthquake. Municipalities along the Pacific coast, such as Fuji City in Shizuoka Prefecture and Minabe Town in Wakayama Prefecture, achieved perfect scores by intensifying their disaster preparedness and post-disaster recovery planning due to the higher risk of being directly affected by both the earthquake and potential tsunamis. In contrast, inland municipalities like those in Kagawa Prefecture perceived a lower immediate threat, making it harder for them to envision the worst-case scenario as a real possibility. This has led to lesser emphasis on practical and achievable steps that local communities and residents can take to prepare for future resilience.
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