Professor Allison’s X Posts on the Chinese Car Market, Mar. 9, 2024.
1/ China Facts: Who has the most competitive automobile market in the world? Who has the most competitive market for EVs in the world?
— Graham Allison (@GrahamTAllison) March 8, 2024
2/ The answer is China and China. China sold 30 million autos domestically last year. In contrast, the US sold only half as many—15.5 million. China also overtook Japan to become the world’s largest auto exporter.
— Graham Allison (@GrahamTAllison) March 8, 2024
3/ What’s the price of the cheapest EV in China? After Chinese champion EV company BYD (long backed by Warren Buffet) lowered its prices this week, one can now buy the company’s lowest-priced model, the Seagull, in Beijing or Shanghai for less than $10,000.
— Graham Allison (@GrahamTAllison) March 8, 2024
BYD Seagull: $9,700 pic.twitter.com/ngWZ4JMRTN
4/ But this wouldn’t even be China’s cheapest popular model. The Wuling Hongguang Mini EV, a joint venture between GM and Chinese automakers, goes for only $5,000 and still seats four. It outsells the Tesla 3 ($36,000) in China.
— Graham Allison (@GrahamTAllison) March 8, 2024
Wuling Hongguang Mini EV: $5,000 pic.twitter.com/eQKMrsv85h
5/ What is the cheapest EV US consumers can buy today? $27,000
— Graham Allison (@GrahamTAllison) March 8, 2024
6/ Anyone attempting to think seriously about cars—or the larger issues of trade in manufacturing—must think seriously about Elon Musk’s warning in his January earnings call.
— Graham Allison (@GrahamTAllison) March 8, 2024
7/ As Elon put it bluntly: Chinese EV companies “will pretty much demolish most other companies in the world” unless trade barriers are erected.
— Graham Allison (@GrahamTAllison) March 8, 2024
8/ Therefore, what? Given the role of automobile companies in Europe, especially in Germany, and of UAW automakers in the US, expect “car wars” ahead.
— Graham Allison (@GrahamTAllison) March 8, 2024