Is the COVID-19 vaccine really worth its risk? (about the case of Japan)

Here, the discussion is limited to Japan.

On the face of it, the government calls it “voluntary” vaccination, but in effect, it recommends that all citizens be vaccinated.

It is an initiative that should be called a national project.

The mass media also fully support the government’s policy, with coverage of the COVID-19 pandemic and the effectiveness of the vaccine.

However, both Pfizer and Moderna vaccines were approved on an emergency basis, in the form of a “special approval”, and are really still in a clinical trial stage.

The fact is that the COVID-19 vaccine is in such a clinical trial stage, and the risk of side effects are rarely reported in the media.

On the contrary, the current situation only highlights the safety and efficacy of the vaccines based on questionable evidence.

It is a worrying situation.

In this article, I would like to discuss the pros and cons of the COVID-19 vaccination by comparing the benefits and risks.

To develop a precise logic, all materials shall be those published by the government of Japan.

The issues are organised in the following order.

1. Has the COVID-19 pandemic really occurred in Japan?

The government of Japan has published an overview of “The 2020 Movement of Population Monthly Report Annual Total (approximate figures)”.

According to the report, the “number of deaths by cause” is as follows:

[1] Malignant Neoplasms (ex. cancer) 378,356(27.6%)

[2] Heart disease (excluding hypertensive) 205,518(15.0%)

[3] Senility 132,435(9.6%)

[4] Cerebrovascular disease 102,956(7.5%)

[5] Pneumonia (not including COVID-19) 78,445(5.7%)

・・・・・

[outside of top 10] COVID-19 3,466(0.3%)

According to the report, COVID-19 isn’t necessarily a fatal disease.

The number of usual pneumonia deaths is 19 times the number of COVID-19 deaths.

Although the COVID-19 pandemic may occur, is it really more serious situation than regular influenza?

2. Confirming the fatal cases following the COVID-19 vaccination.

As far as I’ve been able to find out, there aren’t any reports concerning the Moderna vaccine.

Therefore, only the Pfizer vaccine is discussed here.

The government has published "Summary of reported deaths following vaccination with COVID-19 vaccine (Cominaty intramuscular injection, Pfizer Inc.)".

The report shows that between 17 February and 18 June 2020, 355 people died following vaccination with the Pfizer COVID-19 vaccine.

The report says that the causal link between the deaths and the vaccine is unknown or cannot be assessed.

3. Confirming the fatal cases following regular flu vaccination.

The government has published “Reported suspected adverse reactions to influenza vaccines (2018 season)”.

The report shows that three people died following vaccination with the influenza vaccine in the 2018 season.

The report says that the causal link between the deaths and the vaccine is unknown or cannot be assessed.

4. Considering whether the risk of the COVID-19 vaccination is greater or less than a regular flu vaccination, through the comparison of the two vaccines.

According to what we know from 3. and 4., the number of deaths related to the COVID-19 vaccine is 157 times greater than the influenza vaccine. (In order to calculate the ratio of “157 times”, a conversion was made to make the population equal).

I believe that the risk of COVID-19 vaccines is 157 times higher than normal.

5. Confirming the preventive effect of the COVID-19 vaccine.

The government has published the experimental results of the efficacy of Pfizer’s COVID-19 vaccine.

According to the report, vaccination with Pfizer’s vaccine can reduce the risk of contracting COVID-19 by a factor of 20.

At first glance, it appears to have a wonderful effect.

However, if we look at the same data in terms of the probability of not being infected, the vaccinated group is 99.5%, compared with 99.12%
for un-vaccinated group.

Is it questioning whether the COVID-19 vaccine is effective? I have my doubts.

There is one more fact that should be added to that argument.

In the under 50’s, the probability of dying from COVID-19 infection is less than 1%.

This fact is based on the government’s report “National Outbreak Trends of COVID-19 Infections (Preliminary Figures)”, which has summarised the current situation as of 28 July 2021.

6. Considering whether or not we should be vaccinated against COVID-19, through comparing the benefits and risks involved.

This problem is summarised as follows.

Do you take the COVID-19 vaccine, which can reduce the risk (= the probability of dying is less than 1% if you are under 50) of contracting the virus by a factor of 20, and increase the risk of dying by a factor 157.