Debt limitとMMT
アメリカ連邦政府の債務上限引き上げが条件付きの合意に達したことで、6月5日にも起こり得るとされていたデフォルトが回避される見通しとなった。
Based on the most recent available data, we now estimate that Treasury will have insufficient resources to satisfy the government's obligations if Congress has not raised or suspended the debt limit by June 5.
After several weeks of tense negotiations, President Joe Biden and House Republicans have reached an agreement in principle to raise the debt ceiling and cap spending.
— CNN Politics (@CNNPolitics) May 28, 2023
Here’s what we know about the deal.https://t.co/f1hDIh4pEM
デフォルトを回避する方策についてステファニー・ケルトンがツイートしていたが、特殊な債券か「1兆ドルプラチナコイン」を発行してドルを調達するというものなので、MMTの基本的主張の「財政支出はその都度の中央銀行の通貨発行によって賄われているので事前の財源調達は不要」と矛盾する。
With notable exceptions, coverage of the debt ceiling debacle has been incomplete (at best) and dishonest (at worst). 1/
— Stephanie Kelton (@StephanieKelton) May 26, 2023
Let's start with the basics. The executive branch is bound--under the Constitution--to spend when Congress says spend. The law requires the president/Treasury to honor its spending obligations. The president and Treasury Secretary have taken an oath to uphold the Constitution. 2/
— Stephanie Kelton (@StephanieKelton) May 26, 2023
The debt ceiling statute applies to a *specific set of instruments*. Let's call them "brown pebbles." 3/
— Stephanie Kelton (@StephanieKelton) May 26, 2023
If Congress chooses not to raise the debt limit, it is NOT choosing to default. It is telling Treasury "don't issue any more brown pebbles to facilitate the spending we have ordered." 4/
— Stephanie Kelton (@StephanieKelton) May 26, 2023
As @rohangrey explains in this interview, there are at least three different instruments that could be issued to facilitate the spending *without violating the debt ceiling limit.* 5/ https://t.co/e1vA0uUvn8
— Stephanie Kelton (@StephanieKelton) May 26, 2023
One option is for the Treasury to issue perpetual bonds (think of consols), which have no face value (hence don't count against the debt ceiling) but pay a bit of interest in perpetuity. Let's call these instruments "green pebbles." 6/
— Stephanie Kelton (@StephanieKelton) May 26, 2023
Alternatively, Treasury could issue premium bonds, which would have a very low face value and a high rate of interest. Let's call them "red pebbles." 7/
— Stephanie Kelton (@StephanieKelton) May 26, 2023
The Treasury Secretary could also mint some silver pebbles in the form of a trillion-dollar platinum coin, which would allow it to meet all of its spending obligations *without any additional 'borrowing'* at all! 8/ pic.twitter.com/SiKvHztbJI
— Stephanie Kelton (@StephanieKelton) May 26, 2023
Now, it may be too late to late--technically/logistically--to ramp up auctions for green and red pebbles, given the X-date. You can listen to that discussion here. 9/https://t.co/tahx96koYN
— Stephanie Kelton (@StephanieKelton) May 26, 2023
But silver pebbles, according to former Mint Director @PhilipNDiehl, could be manufactured in a few short days. 10/ https://t.co/qIV47RDEzA
— Stephanie Kelton (@StephanieKelton) May 26, 2023
Unfortunately, the WH/Treasury appear to have unilaterally disarmed by swearing off any of these alternatives, including, apparently, the 14th Amendment. 12/ https://t.co/6sSqAOC4sX
— Stephanie Kelton (@StephanieKelton) May 26, 2023
This is frustrating not just to the progressive left but to people like @BruceBartlett and @paulkrugman who wrote, "I hope someone inside the Treasury is quietly preparing to do whatever it takes. If not, God help us all." 13/https://t.co/UkuyT5XK71
— Stephanie Kelton (@StephanieKelton) May 26, 2023
MMTが下火になってきたのは、インフレ率が跳ね上がったことに加えて、信者を釣るために虚偽説明をしていたことがバレてきたからではないかと思われる。
最近、MMT論者を中心に、妙な命題を作ることが流行っている。曰く、税は財源ではない。確かに通貨発行権があれば、税収がなくても財政支出はできるが、税収を想定しなければ、必ずインフレが起こる。MMTではインフレは増税のみで対応するらしいが、既に自己矛盾。物価安定目標もない。税は貴重な財源。
— 本田悦朗 (@etsuro0112) April 23, 2023
勿論、税も税外収入も国債収入も社会保険料も財源ですよ。ただ、定義を変えて妙な命題を作るのは議論を混乱させるのではないでしょうか。また、当然のことながら、現段階で増税は反対です。しかし、経済が安定したら、所得再分配の観点からの税制改正は必要でしょう。
— 本田悦朗 (@etsuro0112) April 26, 2023
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