NFT市場はもう終わりなのか？

「不透明なNFT市場に対しメーカーとエージェンシーはどう向き合うべきか？」というアド・エイジの記事をご紹介します。

NFT market uncertainty—how brands and agencies are reacting to the downturn

「崩壊（Collapsing）,「停滞（flatlining）」,「急降下（falling fast）」。ここ数か月間、NFT市場はこの様なワードで語られている。

１月には$17B、２月には$12.4Bあった市場が５月には$5Bまで縮小。当初、$399で売り出されたBud Light Next’s NFTは$38に、$9,500-$11,000で取引されていたサンドボックス上の土地は$3,300まで下落。

一方、NFT市場を見る際は、単にドルベースで比較するのではなく、価格設定通貨となっている仮想通貨（イーサリアム等）の価格変動も考慮に入れる必要がある。実際、上述の価格下落の内、イーサリアム自体の下落が大きな要因となっている。

While slumping prices are never a good sign, brands should understand that the most dramatic drops for NFTs are reflected in terms of U.S. dollars as opposed to cryptocurrency. The crypto market has experienced its own massive volatility as of late, and this has ultimately been factored into NFT data since most digital tokens are bought with crypto. The result is a ubiquitous lack of clarity on how much NFTs have lost in real value versus nominal value. For example, an NFT sold for 3 ETH on Jan. 19 equaled just over $9,000, but if that same NFT was sold for 3 ETH on May 19, it was worth only $6,000—a 33% drop in nominal value.

ブランド（メーカー）の立場から見る際、取引金額よりもウォレット（≒購入者数）に注目すべきである。12月に約12万だったウォレット数が、4月には35万まで増えている。

What this means is that trading volume is not the best indicator of NFT demand. Instead, the key metric brands should be paying attention to is the number of active wallets, said Messari’s Nystrom. This number roughly translates to the number of active buyers in the NFT space, although numerous wallets could belong to a single buyer.

On a weekly basis, the present number of active buyers is similar to levels seen in mid-December, with roughly 112,000, according to Dune. Monthly numbers for the entirety of April were even higher than those of December, with over 350,000 buyers.

メタバース上の土地価格の乱高下は激しいが、ブランドが提供するNFTは少し様相が違う。投資対象というより、サンプリングや割引等、具体的なユーティティが得られる会員権として機能している。

Another takeaway for brands is that NFTs that depend less on speculative investing—and, thus, less on volatile market conditions—may find the most success with consumers, said Kai Tier, VP of technology at marketing company R/GA.

Utility-focused NFTs offer special perks through ownership, such as access to promotions and real-world experiences, and have been launched by brands with committed Web3 strategies, like Adidas and Bud Light Next. The brewer, for example, deploys ticket giveaways through its Discord channel in an effort to keep holders of its Next NFT engaged, despite poor market conditions.

「NFTは短期的な市況や値動きではなく、中長期視点でビジネスを考える必要がある」と、RTFKT（ナイキ傘下のバーチャルスニーカー）やゲッティ・イメージ（写真カタログ）の責任者が語っている。

“We don’t give a shit,” said Benoit Pagotto, co-founder of RTFKT, which was acquired by Nike in December. “If you start to look at what's happening every day, especially in crypto, there's something going down or up and you become over-excited or over-depressed and you [won’t] ever become anything. So we don't really look.”

Getty Images, which announced last week plans to create NFTs out of its photo catalog, has always approached the space with a long-term strategy in mind, CEO Craig Peters wrote in an email.

一方、市場の肌感覚を養っておかないと、先日のテラ／ルナ大暴落の最中にタイアップを発表してしまった Washington Nationals baseball の様な失態を演じることになると注意喚起。

こうした状況下、エージェンシーに求められるのは、中長期戦略としてブランドが参入する準備をサポートすること。Web3に関するレクチャーやワークショップを通じて。

“I think we're in a very uncertain time, and what we try to give to brands that we work with is certainty over a longer-term period,” said Media.Monks’ Litman.

The agency is encouraging its clients to learn more about their risk appetites in the space via educational workshops and “inspiration sessions,” which entail brainstorming marketing programs between clients and Media.Monks’ creative teams. These discussions often carry an emphasis on building a Web3 presence through tools beyond merely NFTs, such as virtual land.

NFT悲観論者は、自分に都合の良いデータを切り取って論陣を張るので要注意。現状は、ホエールと呼ばれる大口コレクターの動向に左右されがちであるが、中長期で考えれば、一般消費者に広く普及することは間違いない。そこに向けてしっかりと準備をしておくことが重要である。

“I think it's similar to what happens every time a jobs report comes out. You have analysts pulling out pieces of data that are convenient to their point of view, and presenting it in that way,” he said.

He added: “The biggest opportunity in NFTs is not washing trading by today’s “crypto whales” [largest holders] but rather, a steadfast commitment to deliver value to the mass market consumers.”

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