The Economist Discussion Meeting (EDM)03
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The Economist Discussion Meeting (EDM)01
https://note.com/katsuhikoegusa/n/nb8060f91eefe
The Economist Discussion Meeting (EDM)02
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1. 2023/11/25(Sat) 10 PM-12 AM_ Japan Time_ Topics
2. 2023/11/26(Sun) 9AM-11AM_ Japan Time_ Topics
① Progress on climate change has been too slow. But it’s been real.
Progress on climate change has been too slow. But it’s been real.
Leaders | Must try harder
Progress on climate change has been too slow. But it’s been real
And the world needs to learn from it
DP1: It is said that the agreement reached at the 2015 Conference of the Parties (COP) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) in Paris was somewhat ineffectual. Why is that?
DP2: It is said that this year, the first "global inventory" should be taken of what has been done and what has not been done to approach the overarching goals of the Accord. What is it about?
DP3: It is said that the main driver of global warming is the cumulative amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. As long as emissions continue, temperatures will rise. What is the best solution to deal with this issue?
DP4: It is said that the only way to stop the warming before it reaches net zero is to reduce the amount of sunlight the earth absorbs. Perhaps by putting particles into the stratosphere or whitening the clouds over the oceans. The idea of "solar geoengineering" worries many climate scientists, activists, and policymakers. However, many believe it is worth studying.
Why is that?
1. 2023/11/18(Sat) 10 PM-12 AM_ Japan Time_ Topics
2. 2023/11/19(Sun) 9AM-11AM_ Japan Time_ Topics
① Donald Trump poses the biggest danger to the world in 2024.
② To supercharge science, first experiment with how it is funded.
③ The false promise of green jobs
Donald Trump poses the biggest danger to the world in 2024.
Leaders | America and the world
Donald Trump poses the biggest danger to the world in 2024
What his victory in America’s election would mean
DP1: It is said that it is a dangerous moment for someone like Trump to knock on the door of the presidency again. Democracy is at stake at home.
What is the best solution to deal with this issue?
DP2: It is said that the greatest threat Trump poses is his own country. Why is that?
DP3: It is said that trump's protectionist instincts will also be unleashed.
What are these about?
To supercharge science, first experiment with how it is funded.
Leaders | Scientific methods
To supercharge science, first experiment with how it is funded.
Too much of researchers’ time is spent filling in forms.
DP1: It is said that the transformation brought about by the increased funding of science in the 20th century has been spectacular. From the development of radar to the atomic bomb, scientific advances during World War II expanded the scale of government and corporate enterprise: by the mid-1960s, the U.S. federal government spent 0.6% of GDP on research, and its share of total R&D investment rose to nearly 3%. Inventions such as the Internet, GPS, and space telescopes followed. But that dynamism is fading. Why is that?
DP2: It is said that The Western scientific system is dominated by project grant distribution and peer review. Most funding goes to universities, and researchers face incentives to pursue incremental progress to increase citations and tenure rather than groundbreaking research. Now is the time for a new change. What is the expected new change?
DP3: It is said that there is a growing desire among scientists, policymakers, and philanthropists to renew science funding. the problem is that no one knows what approach will work best. What is the best solution to deal with this issue?
DP4: It is said that science funders say they want to experiment, but they also face pressure to support research that can be easily explained to satisfy politicians. Still, the economic return on research is very large, at least 10 times the original investment, according to some estimates. As with science itself, funding methods must advance. What are the expected methods?
The false promise of green jobs
Finance and economics | Free exchange
The false promise of green jobs
Modern industrial policy has a tension at its heart.
DP1: It is said that politicians in the rich world agree that industrial policies (policies aimed at changing the structure of the economy by stimulating specific sectors) deserve a revival. They are also almost unanimous that the focus should be on climate change. But is there really any logic in combining the two? Marrying the two objectives often means that neither will work. Why is that? As politicians spend trillions of dollars on green industrial policies, they will have to choose between these two objectives.
What is the best strategy to deal with this issue?
DP2: It is said that Economists have traditionally criticized industrial policy on the grounds that governments are poor at it. That ineptitude takes two forms. What are these about?
DP3: It is said that the more ambitious industrial policy becomes, the more difficult it becomes for politicians to exercise the control they claim they need. Many governments, including the U.S., also seek to enhance national security in their industrial policies. When these objectives are combined, there is a danger of chaos. What is the best solution to deal with this issue?
1. 2023/11/11(Sat) 10 PM-12 AM_ Japan Time_ Topics
2. 2023/11/12(Sun) 9AM-11AM_ Japan Time_ Topics
① Microbiome treatments are taking off.
Microbiome treatments are taking off.
Science and technology | Gut feelings
Microbiome treatments are taking off.
Faecal transplants are just the start of a new sort of medicine.
DP1: It is said that scientists have long known that the intestines of animals, including humans, are full of bacteria, viruses, and other microbes. Only recently, however, have we come to understand just how important they are. The microbiome is more than just a collection of passengers; it is an essential component of a healthy body. How does it work?
DP2: It is said that scientists focus on metabolites produced by bacteria rather than regulating the populations of individual bacterial species in a patient's microbiome. An example is ammonia, which is associated with cirrhosis. How does it work?
DP3: Its philosophy is to design bacterial communities that can be parachuted into the hostile environment of a dysfunctional gut to restore order. The idea is to use the bacteria themselves as medicine. Bacteria have an evolved ability to get where they need to go, and the diversity of their constituent species makes them capable of many simultaneous actions.
Do you support this opinion?
1. 2023/11/04(Sat) 10 PM-12 AM_ Japan Time_ Topics
2. 2023/11/05(Sun) 9AM-11AM_ Japan Time_ Topics
① The world economy is defying gravity. That cannot last.
② Donald Trump’s second term would be a protectionist nightmare.
The world economy is defying gravity. That cannot last.
Leaders | Too good to be true.
The world economy is defying gravity. That cannot last.
Threats abound, including higher-for-longer interest rates.
DP1: It is said that even as the war rages and the geopolitical situation darkens, the global economy is inexorably bright. however, this boom will not last long. Why is that? The foundations of today's growth appear precarious. Looking ahead, threats abound. What is it?
DP2: It is said that these rising interest rates are a good thing and reflect the fact that the global economy is at its healthiest. But in reality, rising interest rates are a source of danger. Why is that?
DP3: It is said that because of these strains, it is unlikely that the global economy will be able to achieve many of the things currently expected of it by the markets-avoiding recession, low inflation, strong debt, and high interest rates-all at the same time. It is more likely that the era of rising long-term interest rates will self-destruct, bringing about an economic downturn that will allow central banks to cut interest rates without causing inflation to spike. What is the best solution to deal with this issue?
Donald Trump’s second term would be a protectionist nightmare.
Finance and economics | Tariff Man Part Two
Donald Trump’s second term would be a protectionist nightmare.
His first term was bad enough.
DP1: It is said that Trump's protectionism has made America poorer, helped few exporters, and embarrassed friendly countries. If Trump is nominated as the Republican presidential candidate and wins the election, he has vowed to further strengthen his policies. He intends to impose a tax of perhaps 10% on all products coming into the United States. In one fell swoop, his plan would more than triple the average tariff in the US. Tariffs act as a tax on consumers and hurt most producers. But it also threatens to tear the U.S. apart from its allies and destroy the global trading system.
What is the best solution to deal with this issue?
DP2: It is said that every tax has advantages (e.g., generates public revenue, deters bad behavior) and disadvantages (e.g., impedes growth, imposes costs on individuals). The cons of tariffs are significant. Why is that?
1. 2023/10/28(Sat) 10 PM-12 AM_ Japan Time_ Topics
2. 2023/10/29(Sun) 9AM-11AM_ Japan Time_ Topics
① Governments must not rush into policing AI.
② Sodium batteries offer an alternative to tricky lithium.
③ The world wants to regulate AI but does not quite know how.
Governments must not rush into policing AI.
Leaders | Think, then act
Governments must not rush into policing AI
A summit in Britain will focus on “extreme” risks. But no one knows what they look like
DP1: It is said that governments cannot ignore technology that has the potential to change the world and credible threats to humanity should be taken seriously. Regulators have been too slow in the past; many wish they had acted earlier to crack down on social media in the 2010s, and they want to lead the charge this time around. But there are dangers in acting too hastily. If we act too hastily, policymakers could create global rules and institutions that target the wrong problems, are ineffective for real problems, and stifle innovation. What is the best solution to deal with this issue?
DP2: It is said that the idea that AI will drive humanity to extinction is still entirely speculative. No one knows yet how such a threat will manifest itself. There is no general method for evaluating models against what is dangerous, much less criteria for danger. Much research needs to be done before any criteria or rules can be set. What is the best solution to deal with this issue?
DP3: It is said that hasty regulation may also stifle competition and innovation. Why is that?
DP4: It is said that regulators should be prepared to respond quickly if necessary, but should not rush to set rules or establish institutions that prove to be unnecessary or harmful. Why is that? What is the best solution to deal with this issue?
Sodium batteries offer an alternative to tricky lithium.
Leaders | The green transition
Sodium batteries offer an alternative to tricky lithium.
Lithium is relatively scarce and mostly refined in China. Sodium is neither.
DP1: It is said that politicians in rich countries have recently found themselves in an even more difficult situation. They need to switch not only their own navies but their entire economies from fossil fuels to low-carbon electricity to avoid the worst consequences of climate change. But they fear that doing so will isolate them geopolitically. What is the best solution to deal with this issue?
DP2: It is said that a particular concern is batteries. to balance the nation's power grid as it becomes more dependent on intermittent power from cars, freight vehicles, households, and from the sun and wind. While many different types of batteries exist, the dominant type is the lithium-ion battery, which offers the advantages of low maintenance requirements and high energy density. However, lithium, an essential component, is difficult to obtain, and its refining is mostly done in China. What is the best solution to deal with this issue?
DP3: It is said that many companies are producing batteries based on sodium, a similar element to lithium. Sodium also makes a good battery because its chemical properties are very similar to those of lithium. In addition, sodium, which is found in sea salt, is thousands of times more abundant and inexpensive than lithium on Earth. How does it work?
DP4: It is said that the best lithium batteries use cobalt and nickel for the electrodes. Nickel, like lithium, is in short supply. Mining it on land would be environmentally destructive. sodium has other advantages besides its abundance. What is it about?
DP5: It is said that sodium is not a perfect substitute for lithium. Why is that? What is the biggest drawback of sodium batteries?
The world wants to regulate AI but does not quite know how.
Business | Of evils and evals
The world wants to regulate AI but does not quite know how.
There is disagreement over what is to be policed, how and by whom.
DP1: How can we ensure that artificial intelligence does not become a tool for wild mischief or turn against humanity?
DP2: It is said that efforts to rein in AI abound. Negotiations in Brussels entered a critical phase on October 25, as officials struggle to finalize the EU's ambitious AI law by the end of the year, the White House is expected to issue an executive order on AI. The G7 Club, a group of rich democracies, will begin drafting a code of conduct for AI companies this fall. On October 18, China announced its Global AI Governance Initiative. Why is that?
DP3: Regarding AI regulation, what should the world worry about? What should the rule cover? How should regulations be enforced?
1. 2023/10/21(Sat) 10 PM-12 AM_ Japan Time_ Topics
2. 2023/10/22(Sun) 9AM-11AM_ Japan Time_ Topics
①How to make Britain’s health service AI-ready
②Why America’s banks need more capital.
③How free-market economics reshaped legal systems the world over.
How to make Britain’s health service AI-ready
Leaders | Polishing the crown jewels.
How to make Britain’s health service AI-ready
The NHS should clean up and open up its data. Patients will benefit.
DP1: It is said that because the tabular data that is useful for clinical trials, such as who took which drugs and what results, is not the same as the data that is most useful for training machine learning models with more information about the patient, such as scan images and genomes. Much of this type of NHS data is confusing and organized in a way that is useful to the physician treating the patient but not to the developer who wants to input it into a computer. Making such a model suitable is a challenge that the NHS has yet to address. What is the best solution to deal with this issue?
DP2: It is said that to open up the rich data of the NHS to AI, its managers and politicians should look to three principles: cleanliness, comparability, and consent. What are these about?
DP3: It is said that the NHS's position as a global leader in data-intensive clinical trials faces severe threats from rapidly digitizing health systems in other countries. What is the best strategy to deal with this issue?
DP4: It is said that NHS data may become the basis for a thriving export industry, licensing AI tools to healthcare systems around the world. But if the UK does not sweep up digital technology, it will be on the receiving end of new medical technology, just as it has been on the receiving end of American digital services such as online search and social media. It would be a lost opportunity and the beginning of the end of the NHS' data dominance. What is the best solution to deal with this issue?
Why America’s banks need more capital.
Leaders | A brush with Basel
Why America’s banks need more capital.
Though imperfect, regulators’ plans are necessary to keep the system safe.
DP1: It is said that the U.S. has spent more than a decade trying to make its banks safer, and several of them abruptly failed earlier this year. So it is not surprising that regulators are once again trying to strengthen the banking system. The regulators' latest proposal would, among many other changes aimed at bringing U.S. rules in line with globally agreed-upon principles, increase the high-quality capital banks need to operate their businesses by an average of 16 percent. When the package, dubbed the "final phase of Basel 3," is implemented, banks that were profitable until last week will have to build up their safety buffers over the years. Do you support this rule? What are the pros and cons of this rule?
DP2: It is said that bankers are understandably opposed to recapitalization, which is rather like being forced to buy insurance against an unlikely eventuality. However, when insurance is introduced, society as a whole benefits greatly. With the U.S. economy booming, now is an opportune time to try to make the system safer. This is because building a safety buffer is more difficult than maintaining it. even if this bill were to pass, the plight of American banks is not yet over. What is it about? What is the best strategy to deal with the issue?
DP3: What is the ideal regulation to make the bank safer?
How free-market economics reshaped legal systems the world over.
Finance and economics | Not so civil anymore
How free-market economics reshaped legal systems the world over
Friedrich Hayek’s followers promised growth. They may have overpromised
DP1: It is said that the legal system of the United Arab Emirates (UAE), like many of the Gulf states, is a fusion of French civil law with Islamic Sharia law. This summer, however, Dubai announced that it is considering introducing English common law to its 26 free trade zones. Free trade zones are areas that are exempt from local taxes and tariffs and have their own legal systems and courts. The region is increasingly dotted with such common law islands, reflecting the idea that the legal traditions of the Anglosphere are more suited to business. Do you support this opinion?
DP2: It is said that Hayek argued that common law is a better foundation for legal systems than civil law for the same reason that markets are a better foundation for economies than central planning. A decentralized judiciary has access to "local knowledge" - the subtleties and idiosyncrasies of actual legal cases - that a centralized legislature does not. This is akin to a butcher, brewer, or baker knowing better than a bunch of well-meaning bureaucrats what goods to produce, in what quantities, and at what market price. A legal system based on precedents allows judges to adapt the legal system to real situations. Do you support this opinion?
DP3: common law jurisdictions have consistently lower regulatory stringency and consistently higher contract enforcement efficiency. The differences were most pronounced in the barriers faced by entrepreneurs.
over the 30 years to 1992, per capita GDP growth was higher in common law. civil law countries grew 0.7 percentage points per year slower than in common law countries. Do you support this opinion?
1. 2023/10/14(Sat) 10 PM-12 AM_ Japan Time_ Topics
2. 2023/10/15(Sun) 9AM-11AM_ Japan Time_ Topics
①America and China should keep doing research together.
②How to deal with the global anti-climate backlash
③Europe should not copy Bidenomics
④Scientists have published an atlas of the brain.
⑤Who profits most from America’s baffling health-care system?
America and China should keep doing research together.
Leaders | The case to STAy
America and China should keep doing research together.
Republicans are wrong to want to scrap the Science and Technology Agreement
DP1: It is said that since the 1979 agreement between Deng Xiaoping and Jimmy Carter, US and Chinese scholars have cooperated in scientific research. Politicians are now vacillating over whether to renew the Deng-Carter Agreement, known as the Science and Technology Agreement (STA). Why is that?
DP2: It is said that at a time of tension between China and the United States, this agreement has important symbolism. This agreement is the first bilateral agreement signed after relations between the two countries have been restored. What are the pros and cons of abrogating this agreement without good reason?
DP3: It is said that there is a strong precedent for scientific cooperation between rival superpowers. Collaboration between American and Soviet scientists during the Cold War led to the detection of gravitational waves, advances in nonlinear dynamics modeling now used to track climate change, and the production of a vaccine to eradicate smallpox. The relationship was not symmetrical, but it was mutually beneficial and promoted human progress. Rather than adopting a new model of scientific isolationism, American leaders should remember that cooperation in the laboratory tends to benefit everyone, including the United States. Do you support this opinion?
How to deal with the global anti-climate backlash
Leaders | Putting the lean into clean.
How to deal with the global anti-climate backlash
Minimise the cost and hassle that green policies impose on households.
DP1: It is said that in rich democracies, there has been a backlash against climate-friendly policies. the causes are many and varied. What are these?
DP2: It is said that President Joe Biden's approach is to invest hundreds of billions of dollars in everything from batteries to smart grids in what he calls a program to create jobs and confront China. The calculation is that even voters who don't care about green-like jobs and fear China, a future Republican president will shy away from eliminating subsidies that are popular with recipients in both red and blue states. All of this is correct, but there are significant drawbacks to this approach. What are these?
DP3: It is said that the downside of a carbon tax is that, as the name implies, it is a tax, and voters do not like the sound of it. What is the best solution to deal with this issue?
DP4: It is said that many clean technologies are cheaper in the long run, but have higher initial costs. Many constituencies in wealthy countries need help with these issues. The same is true for developing countries, where the high cost of capital puts many green projects out of reach. Globally, politicians concerned about climate change should take the backlash seriously. What is the best solution to deal with this issue?
Europe should not copy Bidenomics
Leaders | A bad example
Europe should not copy Bidenomics
It needs a deeper, greener single market—not more state handouts.
DP1: It is said that a growing number of Europeans believe that a Biden-style industrial policy is the answer. The European Union is relaxing state aid rules that limit subsidized investment and setting targets for the production of green goods in the region. however, it would be a mistake to imitate Bidenomics. Why is that?
DP2: It is said that the recent experience in Europe is in fact a case study of market forces. Unlike the United States, the European Union (EU) already has a unified carbon pricing mechanism: the Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS). What is it about?
DP3: It is said that the best policy for Europe is one that builds on the market-friendly approach of the past: the EU should foster a common and competing green single market, including services and capital. Do you support this opinion?
DP4: It is said that the U.S. has had an economic advantage over other countries for many years because it has been more market-oriented, not because it has been less so. Therefore, its recent inclination toward statism is more of an anomaly than a model to be emulated. What is the best solution to deal with this issue?
Scientists have published an atlas of the brain.
Science and technology | Neuro-philately
Scientists have published an atlas of the brain.
Cataloguing its components may help understand how it works.
DP1: It is said that the brain, especially the human brain, is the most complex object in the known universe. Its complexity is underscored by the fact that it is estimated to contain about 3,000 different cell types.
Where the cellular components of the brain are located, which cells are involved in neurological and mental disorders, and what makes the brain of Homo sapiens different from the brains of other animals?
DP2: It is said that RNA is chemically similar to DNA, and there are many types, each of which performs a different job. What are these about? How do these work with each other?
DP3: It is said that the researchers compared the DNA packaging patterns of different types of cells with the locations of DNA fragments known to regulate gene transcription and carry disease-related mutations. The results showed a correlation with 19 diseases, including schizophrenia, depression, bipolar disorder, Alzheimer's disease, and various addictions.
Do you support this opinion?
DP4: It is said that the answer makes a human brain a human brain lies not in the neurons themselves, but in the non-neuronal brain cells called glial cells. Do you support this opinion?
DP5: It is said that the clues to the nature of humans may lie in parts of the genome called "hars" and "hcondels. hcondels stands for "human-conserved deletions," parts of the genome that do not change in apes and monkeys but do change in humans. genes in and around these two regions are often particularly active or inactive in glial cells. Do you support this opinion?
DP6: It is said that there are three types of glial cells. What are these?
How do these work with each other?
DP7: To understand the brain properly, we need to not only enumerate and describe the various components but also figure out how they are wired together into functional units. What is the best solution to deal with this issue?
Who profits most from America’s baffling health-care system?
Business | Really big health
Who profits most from America’s baffling health-care system?
Hint: it isn’t big pharma
DP1: It is said that The U.S. spends approximately $4.3 billion annually to maintain the health of its citizens. This is equivalent to 17% of GDP, twice the average of other rich countries. Nevertheless, American adults live shorter lives and American infants die more frequently than in similarly affluent countries. Drug companies and hospitals have drawn much public outrage over-inflated health care costs. However, little attention has been paid to the small number of middlemen who profit enormously from this complex system. Why is that? Who are these?
DP2: in 2022, the combined sales of the nine largest intermediaries (called Big Health) will represent almost 45% of U.S. healthcare spending, up from 25% It is said that in 2013. 8 of the top 25 companies by revenue in the S&P 500 Index of major U.S. stocks are Big Health, compared to 4 major high-tech companies and zero major pharmaceutical companies. How can they make huge money?
DP3: It is said that the 2010 healthcare reform law capped health insurers' profits at 15% to 20% of premiums collected, depending on the size of the health plan. However, it did not impose any limits on the profits earned by physicians or other intermediaries. Why is that?
DP4: It is said that having all parts of patient care under one roof, including primary care clinics, pharmacy services, PBMs, and insurance, is beneficial to all. However, vertical integration also has side effects. after a hospital acquires a physician practice, prices go up, but the quality of care does not. physicians will be induced to provide the cheapest care to patients and the quality of care will suffer. What is the best solution to deal with this issue?
DP5: It is said that at issue is pbms(pharmacy benefit managers) opaque pricing practices. pbms shaves from the list price of its drugs the discounts that pbms has secured from drug manufacturers. the big pbms do not return the discounts to health plans, instead keeping much of the difference for themselves and limiting access to treatments that are less profitable for them. What is the best solution to deal with this issue?
DP6: It is said that the greatest disruption to major healthcare organizations could come from Amazon. However, Amazon's pharmacy business has yet to break into the top 15 U.S. pharmacy chains. Big Tech may be powerful. But for now, even Big Tech is caving in before Big Health.
What is the appropriate solution to improve the complicated healthcare system?
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