The Economist Discussion Meeting (EDM)02

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The Economist Discussion Meeting (EDM)01

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1. 2023/10/07(Sat) 10 PM-12 AM_ Japan Time_ Topics
2. 2023/10/08(Sun) 9AM-11AM_ Japan Time_ Topics

①Are free markets history?
②New industrial policies will not help economic stability.
③The 2023 Nobel prizes honor work that touched millions of lives.
④Why Africans are losing faith in democracy.
⑤How carbon prices are taking over the world.
⑥

Are free markets history?

Are free markets history?

Leaders | The size of the state
Are free markets history?
Governments are jettisoning the principles that made the world rich.
 
DP1: It is said that if you advocate free trade in Washington, you will be mocked as hopelessly naive. At the heart of the new regime is the idea that protectionism is the way to deal with the rough and tumble of open markets. Do you support this opinion?
DP2: It is said that protectionism leads to increased government spending. industry gobbles up subsidies to promote the energy transition and guarantee the supply of strategic commodities. and inevitably, state handouts come along with extra regulations. Antitrust laws are active. this mix of protection, spending, and regulation comes at a heavy price.
What is the best solution to deal with this issue?
DP3: It is said that ideas need to be tested and guided by the market, not governed by a checklist from the center. Excessive regulation stifles innovation and raises costs, slowing change and making it painful.
What is the best strategy to deal with the issue?

New industrial policies will not help economic stability.

New industrial policies will not help economic stability

Special report | In search of a problem
New industrial policies will not help economic stability.
Globalization has not been perfect, but it has been effective.
 
DP1: It is said that for years, politicians have paid lip service to industrial policy and protectionism, and in some cases have implemented such policies. governments have implemented more than 10 times as many policies each year from 2010-15. From the manifestos, it appears that politicians are planning even more policies in the coming years in order to gain dominance in the areas of renewable energy, electric transportation, and generative AI. This is the biggest policy shift in several generations. The nationally dominated economics might bring the world out of its productivity doldrums. the world will regret this shift. Why is that? What is the best solution to deal with this issue?
DP2: It is said that globalization has had a positive effect on the world's poor. The opening of global markets has reduced world poverty at the fastest rate in history. Why is that?
DP3: It is said that Domestic wealth and income inequality are high by historical standards. Productivity growth in the rich world is weak. But the cause does not lie in globalization itself, but elsewhere. They include poorly designed welfare states, a lack of retraining, and restrictive planning systems that prevent the construction of new housing and commercial facilities.
Do you support this opinion? If so, what is the best solution to deal with this issue?
DP4: It is said that industrial policy and protectionism are unrestrained. Politicians have set such broad goals for a new economic paradigm that supply chains are likely to become less, rather than more, resilient as a result. Productivity and GDP growth are likely to slow on balance. Do you support this opinion? If so, what is the best solution to deal with this issue?
DP5: It is said that Protectionism will be fostered as the multilateral trading system is undermined and the credibility of Western countries as defenders of free trade is lost. There will also be fiscal repercussions due to declining productivity. We are now in the early stages of this collapse. On both sides of the political divide, the politics of globalization are now toxic, laying the groundwork for more protectionism and industrial policy. What is the best solution to deal with this issue?

The 2023 Nobel prizes honor work that touched millions of lives.

The 2023 Nobel prizes honour work that touched millions of lives

 Science and technology | Scientific gong season
The 2023 Nobel prizes honor work that touched millions of lives.
Besides mRNA vaccines, they celebrate ultra-fast lasers and tiny prisons for light.
 
DP1: It is said that in a brief description of molecular genetics, there are four gene "letters." In DNA, the molecule in which the gene is normally stored, a, c, g, and t are the initial letters of the corresponding chemical. How does this work to assemble the desired protein?
DP2: It is said that the ability to have cells that do not have the gene itself produce the protein could be used for a variety of applications, not just vaccines. What are these?
DP3: It is said that there must be some significant chemical difference between the artificially created RNA and natural human RNA. What are these?
DP4: It is said that two companies, BioNTech and Moderna were already working on the miRNA vaccine, and were able to develop a vaccine effective against the newly discovered coronavirus. Why is that? How does it work?
DP5: It is said that the physics prize was similarly awarded for research that was to pay off many years later. This physics prize was awarded for the development of an ultrafast laser that can be turned on and off in just attoseconds (500 millionths of a second). What are use cases in the real world by using this technology?
DP6: the properties of matter can depend on its size, not its chemical composition. the substance in question is a quantum dot, the formal name for a chemical structure also known as a semiconductor nanocrystal.
How does it work? What are use cases in the real world by using this technology?

Why Africans are losing faith in democracy.

Why Africans are losing faith in democracy

 Leaders | Sub-Saharan suffrage
Why Africans are losing faith in democracy.
The alternatives will undoubtedly be worse.
 
DP1: It is said that from the Atlantic Ocean to the Red Sea, one can now cross almost all of Africa on foot, but only through countries that have been hit by coups in the past three years. One reason coups have become more frequent is that many Africans have lost faith in democracy. The percentage of those who prefer democracy to any other form of government has fallen from 75% in 2012 to 66%. Why is that? What is the best solution to deal with this issue?
DP2: It is said that many of Africa's so-called democracies are bogus. Africa has nine leaders who have been in power for more than 20 years. It is difficult to expect people who have experienced only masked democracy to support democracy. What is the best solution to deal with this issue?
DP3: It is said that Africa is not alone in its widespread disillusionment with democracy. 62% of Americans and 56% of French people said they were not satisfied with democracy in their countries. Among young Americans, nearly one-fifth would prefer a dictatorship. Why is that? What is the best solution to deal with this issue?
DP4: It is said that dictatorships lack the corrective mechanisms built into true democracy. In other words, there is no promise that if the government fails, the voters can remove it. In addition, coups and dictatorships often lead to wars, such as the one in Sudan, because of the persistence of ethnic rivalries and territorial disputes in many African countries. What is the best solution to deal with this issue?
DP5: It is said that Africa is the only continent with a rapidly growing population: by 2030, nearly one in three people of working age will live in Africa. Many of humanity's greatest challenges, from climate change to pandemics, will be harder to tackle if Africa is dysfunctional. While there is no guarantee that a more democratic Africa will be prosperous and peaceful, an Africa ruled by dictators and generals certainly will not be.
What is the best strategy to deal with this issue?

How carbon prices are taking over the world.

How carbon prices are taking over the world

 Finance and economics | Green light
How carbon prices are taking over the world
A quarter of global emissions are now covered, and the share is rising fast.
 
DP1: It is said that the world must divest itself of fossil fuels as soon as possible in order to curb global warming. Almost everyone agrees on this point. Economists have long supported setting a price on carbon, which Europe introduced in 2005. Doing so would allow the market to identify the cheapest units of greenhouse gases to be reduced, thus allowing society to fight climate change at the lowest cost. But others, including many U.S. politicians, are concerned that such a system would provoke a backlash by raising consumer costs. Why is that? Do you support this opinion?
DP2: It is said that there are three ways in which a carbon price could be disseminated. What are these? What are pros and cons of these disseminations of the carbon price?
DP3: It is said that around the world, activists have criticized companies for indulging in what they call "greenwashing," in which they use offsets to pretend to be environmentally friendly. Some schemes have also struggled to prove that they have led to emissions reductions. What is the best solution to deal with this issue?
DP4: It is said that global industry now faces greater incentives to get its carbon emissions right. the EU's ultimate goal is to tackle carbon leakage. What is it about?
DP5: It is said that the EU launched a landmark policy, the "Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism" (cbam). What is it about?
DP6: It is said that carbon pricing has a domino effect. Once an industry is subject to a carbon price, affected companies will naturally seek to apply the same rules to their competitors. the question is whether the dominoes will fall fast enough. For example, few emissions trading schemes target emissions from homes and cars, where consumers will really feel the pain.
What is the best strategy to deal with this issue?

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1. 2023/09/30(Sat) 10 PM-12 AM_ Japan Time_ Topics
2. 2023/10/01(Sun) 9AM-11AM_ Japan Time_ Topics

①Forget the shutdown. America’s real fiscal worry is rising bond yields.
②The war in Ukraine is a powerful reason to enlarge and improve the EU.
③States are becoming more brazen about killing foes abroad.
④How Microsoft could supplant Apple as the world’s most valuable firm.
⑤The definition of Europe has always been both inspiring and incoherent.
⑥Customer service is getting worse—and so are customers.

Forget the shutdown. America’s real fiscal worry is rising bond yields.

Forget the shutdown. America’s real fiscal worry is rising bond yields

Leaders | The budget bust-up
Forget the shutdown. America’s real fiscal worry is rising bond yields.
Watch Wall Street, not Washington.
 
DP1: It is said that when "mandatory" spending, such as public pensions and health care, is subtracted, only about 25% of the U.S. budget is left. The country's budget problems are far more extensive, and yet they are getting worse by the month. To understand why, we need to focus on the alarming behavior of the bond market, not Washington. Why is that?
DP2: It is said that the annual cost of borrowing for the U.S. government for 10 years has risen to 4.6%, the highest since 2007, the last time yields were this high, the federal government's outstanding debt was 35% of GDP; today it is 98%. Thus, higher interest rates are nearly three times more painful for the budget. What is the best solution to deal with this issue?
DP3: It is said that the federal government will spend 2.5% of GDP on debt service this year; by 2030, it will spend 3.2%, a record high and more than defense spending. at current interest rate levels, interest on government bonds will consume nearly half of all federal tax revenues by 2051. What is the best solution to deal with this issue?
DP4: It is said that soaring interest rates are already contributing to a gaping hole in the books every year. Remarkably, over the past year, the Biden administration has run up budget deficits of more than 7%. This largesse explains why interest rates are expected to stay high. The Federal Reserve sets interest rates high because government borrowing stimulates the economy and increases the risk of inflation. Do you support this opinion?
DP5: It is said that the rise in U.S. government bond yields reflects only rising expectations for interest rates and not inflation or the risk of prolonged default. But if politicians of all stripes continue to act as if deficits are not a problem even as borrowing costs rise, they will eventually be faced with the unpalatable choice of prolonged austerity or letting the Fed pursue a one-size-fits-all budgetary monetary policy, which would further inflate and undermine economic stability. What is the best strategy to deal with this issue?

The war in Ukraine is a powerful reason to enlarge—and improve—the EU.

The war in Ukraine is a powerful reason to enlarge—and improve—the EU

Leaders | A bigger, better EU
The war in Ukraine is a powerful reason to enlarge—and improve—the EU.
Nine new countries, including Ukraine, are vying to join.
 
DP1: It is said that the horrors of two world wars armed France, West Germany, and the rest of the world, giving birth to today's European Union (EU). Seventy years later, war has returned to the European continent. As many as nine new member states, including Ukraine, are now about to be approved. Joining the club of the world's most successful, peaceful, and prosperous democracies would set prospective members such as war-torn Ukraine Georgia, and Moldova in the Western Balkans on a new and promising path. But the structure of the EU will have to change. What are three major items for the EU to change its structure into expected one?
DP2: It is said that above all, Europe needs to demonstrate its ability to act if it is to become a force in the world. To delay enlargement because it is difficult to implement would weaken the continent. The situation of war is terrible, but it is the driving force that makes the EU bigger and better. Europe must find a way to build it. What is that?

States are becoming more brazen about killing foes abroad.

States are becoming more brazen about killing foes abroad

 International | Assassin’s creed
States are becoming more brazen about killing foes abroad.
Some countries are finding new justifications for political murders.
 
DP1: It is said that the killing of dissidents, terrorists, politicians, and military personnel is as old as politics itself, but its incidence is rising. New technologies have made it easier than ever for governments to strike their enemies precisely from afar. Even though assassinations are becoming easier and perhaps more frequent, the world has yet to find a response to them. Why is that? What is the best solution to deal with this issue?
DP2: It is said that Assassination has the connotation of treachery, in that it is politically motivated and kills a prominent person without due legal process. The state has murdered prominent enemies abroad for a variety of reasons and in a variety of ways. Since 1950, there have been two assassination attempts on a national leader every three years. The reliable data on assassination patterns and their causes are difficult to obtain because of problems in identifying killings and perpetrators. What is the best solution to deal with this issue?
DP3: It is said that The UN Charter obliges all member states to "refrain in their international relations from the threat or use of force against the territorial integrity or political independence of any State. At the same time, however, it recognizes "the inherent right of individual or collective self-defense in the event of an armed attack. International human rights lawyers take a restrictive view. In peacetime, assassination or targeted killing is illegal. In wartime, they may be permissible if consistent with the laws of war. Do you support this opinion?
DP4: It is said that international terrorism, which seems to fall somewhere between conventional policing and war, under international law, states must deal with terrorism through law enforcement measures such as international cooperation and extradition. Do you support this opinion?
DP5: It is said that tracking down targets, organizing assassinations, and evading capture requires resources and know-how. Indian spies may see themselves as emulating the United States and Israel, necessarily harsh defenders of democracy. But if it is seen as turning from the mitigation of a clear security threat to the elimination of political opponents, raw will become a shadowy front for domestic repression, as seen with Russian and Saudi Arabian spies. Assassination can alert the world to the brutality of the regime that orders it. Do you believe that assassinations, terrorism, and war can resolve the underlying problem? If not, what is the best solution to deal with this issue?

How Microsoft could supplant Apple as the world’s most valuable firm

How Microsoft could supplant Apple as the world’s most valuable firm

Briefing | A second flight
How Microsoft could supplant Apple as the world’s most valuable firm
It hopes to seize on AI to transform the future of work.
 
DP1: It is said that the incredible capabilities of "generative" AI are going to transform many desk jobs. What is it about?  It is also a glimpse into the future of Microsoft, once the world's most valuable publicly traded company. Why is that?
DP2: It is said that today's Microsoft business depends on three divisions for growth. What are these about?
DP3: It is said that Microsoft has two major advantages when it comes to generative AI. What are these about?
DP4: It is said that there is some evidence for the idea that copilots can help Microsoft solidify its lead. Why is that? What is it about?
DP5: What are three concerns about using copilots? What is the best strategy to deal with these issues?
DP6: It is said that Microsoft is in a strong position. Microsoft failed to capture the emergence of the smartphone and was slow to grasp the potential of the cloud. Today, however, Microsoft is poised to take advantage of a technology that could transform the world of work.
Co-pilots will be the captains of their fortune. What are the key factors that make the difference between winning and losing in the market?

The definition of Europe has always been both inspiring and incoherent.

The definition of Europe has always been both inspiring and incoherent

Europe | Charlemagne
The definition of Europe has always been both inspiring and incoherent.
But that has not stopped it growing.
 
DP1: It is said that Europe is not just a geographical concept. But other definitions are also confusing. If Europe is where the European powers dominate, then colonialism has spread Europe all over the world.
Do you support this opinion?
DP2: It is said that the question of what defines Europe is of critical importance for countries seeking membership in the European Union.
Why is that?
DP3: It is said that the accession criteria themselves are the product of centuries of debate about what it means to be European. And EU voters' intuitions about who belongs to the EU are shaped by history. What is it about?
DP4: It is said that it was not until 1973 that the leaders of the Community came to define a "European identity. They invoked "cherished values of legal, political, and moral order" and pledged to preserve "the rich diversity of each country's culture." Because the values were universal (democracy, rule of law, etc.) and the cultures were diverse, there was no reason to keep out Eastern Europe after the fall of communism. EU membership became, in theory, a matter of technical criteria. Do you support this opinion?
DP5: It is said that Europeans' feelings about who belongs to the EU depend on what issues are being discussed. The struggles over monetary union and the rule of law are institutional and cultural issues that draw attention to the different identities and histories of Europeans. Europe's attention is once again turning to geography. Why is that? Do you support this opinion?

Customer service is getting worse—and so are customers.

Customer service is getting worse—and so are customers

Business | Schumpeter
Customer service is getting worse—and so are customers.
What could fix it?
 
DP1: It is said that in recent years, many companies have been installing automated software in their contact centers in an attempt to eliminate human interaction. But the results can be disappointing for both customers and companies. Why is that? What is the best strategy to deal with this issue?
DP2: It is said that generative" artificial intelligence (AI) such as ChatGPT offers more human-like interactions than previous generations of customer service bots. When trained with historical call logs and other company data, they make fewer mistakes than off-the-shelf ChatGPTs. It can also quickly sort through information such as past interactions between customers and companies. But whether it is an adequate substitute for humans is a question. Why is that? What is the best solution to deal with this issue?
DP3: It is said that by augmenting rather than completely replacing workers, generative AI could bring both better jobs and a better experience for customers. After years of frustration and anger, that is a relief for people on both sides of the customer service line. Why is that? Do you support this opinion?

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1. 2023/09/23(Sat) 10 PM-12 AM_ Japan Time_ Topics
2. 2023/09/24(Sun) 9AM-11AM_ Japan Time_ Topics

①ChatGPT mania may be cooling, but a serious new industry is taking shape.
②Could OpenAI be the next tech giant?
③Climate change is coming for America’s property market.
④Renewable energy has hidden costs.
⑤China isn’t the only country giving out goodies in Asia.
⑥Why the EU will not remain the world’s digital über-regulator.

ChatGPT mania may be cooling, but a serious new industry is taking shape.

ChatGPT mania may be cooling, but a serious new industry is taking shape

Leaders | Beyond the hype
ChatGPT mania may be cooling, but a serious new industry is taking shape.
Three forces will shape the business of generative AI.
 
DP1: It is said that a second, more serious phase has begun. A whole new industry is taking shape around the ultra-fast AImodel. What it will ultimately look like, and whether Openai will remain dominant or whether other players will prevail, will be determined by three forces. What are these?
DP2: It is said that Google's soon-to-be-released latest model, Gemini, is believed to be more powerful than Opnai's current version. What is it about?
DP3: It is said that company like Openai, with its vast number of users, and Google, with its abundance of money, clearly have an early advantage. But as long as computing power and data are the constraints, the rewards for clever ways around them will be great. The model builder with the most efficient approach, the most creative data synthesis method, or the most attractive sales pitch to customers could still take the lead. The hype may have cooled. But the drama is just beginning. Who will win?

Could OpenAI be the next tech giant?

Could OpenAI be the next tech giant?

Business | Smart money
Could OpenAI be the next tech giant?
What the business of AI’s leading startup says about the technology’s future
 
DP1: It is said that can OpenAI convert its initial advantage into a lasting advantage and join the ranks of big tech. To do so, it must avoid the fate of former tech pioneers, from Netscape to MySpace, who were overtaken by rivals who learned from their early successes and stumbles. What is the best strategy to deal with this issue?
DP2: It is said that OpenAI is a strange company. It was founded in 2015 as a non-profit venture by a group of entrepreneurs, including current boss Sam Altman and Tesla's tech CEO, Elon Musk. The goal was to build an artificial intelligence (AI) that would be as good as or better than humans at all kinds of intellectual tasks. The interim goal was AI that could master a video game called "Dota". In tackling this problem, Open AI engineers arrived at a simple approach that harnessed vast computing power. How does it work? How was the Generative Pre-trained transformer(GPT) created?
DP3: It is said that OpenAI could end up being "the most capital-intensive startup in Silicon Valley history." Why is that?
DP4: What is a major reason why Opnai is not training the next large model, GPT-5?
DP5: It is said that it is on the revenue-generating business side that Opnai is most transformed and most energetic these days. AI can create a lot of value long before agi's brain becomes as multifunctional as a human brain, Opnai models are generalists, trained on vast amounts of data, and capable of performing a wide variety of tasks. How does it work?
DP6: It is said that despite the huge number of users, GPT-4 is hardly better than it was six months ago. While better tuning with user data has made it less likely to go off the rails, overall performance is changing in unpredictable ways, and in some cases getting worse. What is the best solution to deal with this issue?
DP7: It is said that the fact that Openai's model is a black box also weakens its appeal to some potential users, including large companies concerned about data privacy. What is the best strategy to deal with this issue?
DP8: It is said that Character AI designed a model that allows users to create virtual personalities based on real or imaginary people and talk to other users. It is the second most popular AI app after ChatGPT.  Who created it?
DP9: It is said that there will be a handful of large generalist models in this market, with task-specific models as the long tail. Such an oligopoly might limit the potential for Google-like astronomical results, but Oppenheimer would still have a substantial amount of money on its hands. Do you support this opinion?

Climate change is coming for America’s property market.

Climate change is coming for America’s property market

Leaders | Uninsurable America
Climate change is coming for America’s property market.
Insurance is supposed to signal risk. Policymakers should let it.
 
DP1: It is said that the economic costs of storms and fires depend above all on how many homes people build in hazardous locations. those who enjoy the benefits of living in high-risk areas (e.g., magnificent ocean views) should bear the cost. However, both the federal and state governments subsidize or suppress property insurance premiums in such locations to prevent this from happening. This encourages reckless building. Nearly a quarter of all properties in the continental United States are overvalued when climate change risks are properly considered. These 39 million properties represent a climate insurance bubble inflated by the government. What is the best solution to deal with this issue?
DP2: It is said that private insurers, burned by huge insurance payouts after disasters, are abandoning risky markets like Florida and California. Homeowners are relying on state-backed insurance companies of last resort. When these policies fail to cover claims, taxpayers are left to foot the bill. As climate change progresses, the number of areas in the U.S. that are uninsurable will only grow. What is the best solution to deal with this issue?
DP3: It is said that as long as disaster risk is underestimated, people will take excessive risks. It is also unclear how long taxpayers who live in relatively safe places will be content to subsidize insurance premiums for those who do not. 23% of coastal properties with flood insurance were second homes. Taxpayers should not be helping the Real Housewives of Miami build their seaside castles. Do you support this opinion?
DP4: It is said that policymakers should allow private insurance companies to set actuarially sound premiums and keep their policies in force. Realistic premiums would discourage reckless new construction. Do you support this opinion?
DP5: It is said that the more politicians subsidize buildings in dangerous places, the worse the pain will be and the larger the final bill. Do you support this opinion?
DP6: It is said that Government subsidizing shall be applied for the interests of politicians in shortsighted vision and prevents optimization of resources by Market mechanism. What is the best solution to deal with this issue?

Renewable energy has hidden costs.

Renewable energy has hidden costs

Finance and economics | Free exchange
Renewable energy has hidden costs.
Why it is often more expensive than policymakers expect to go green.
 
 
DP1: It is said that when you produce electricity matters. A barrel of oil may be a barrel of oil whether pumped at midday or at midnight, but the value of a megawatt-hour (MWh) of electricity is much less when you are sleeping than it is at midday or the moment everyone decides to boil the kettle. Because of the difficulty of bottling electricity, its economics are unusual. What is the best solution to deal with this issue?
DP2: It is said that as the world improves its ability to harness natural resources, the cost of wind and solar power is dropping every year. The power industry, however, is facing a difficult situation. Why is that?
DP3: It is said that to understand what is happening, consider in detail the levelized cost of energy. levelized cost means taking these fixed and variable costs over the life of the plant and weighting them by the number of watt-hours the plant is expected to produce. This gives a comparable measure. however, these costs depend on how often energy is produced. Nuclear power plants are the cheapest if they are in constant operation, as the higher initial cost produces greater output. Gas, with its lower fixed costs and higher variable costs, has lower economies of scale. Coal falls somewhere in between the two. Considering purely economic benefits, the optimal power source mix is to use nuclear power to meet the "base load," or minimum level of demand, coal to meet the "medium load," and finally natural gas to meet the "peak load," when demand is at its highest.
Do you support this opinion?
DP4: It is said that solar panels and wind turbines are less beneficial than they may appear on their own. If they cannot reliably generate electricity when needed, their generating capacity is not worth as much as a conventional power plant. To truly compare the two, one must measure not only the cost of generating each megawatt-hour but also the value of that hour. What is the best strategy to deal with this issue?

China isn’t the only country giving out goodies in Asia.

China isn’t the only country giving out goodies in Asia

Asia | Asia’s new aid diplomacy
China isn’t the only country giving out goodies in Asia.
Japan and South Korea are offering development cash too.
 
DP1: It is said that the ASIA Pacific region is the most dynamic region in the world, but its development needs remain enormous. Rapid growth will create its own demands in terms of roads, railroads, power plants, ports, and digitalization. However, large parts of the region still suffer from poverty, poor access to education and health care, misgovernance, and vulnerability to climate and other natural disasters. Japan, South Korea, Australia, and Taiwan have recently formulated new aid and development policies aimed at making more effective use of scarce resources, and much cooperation is being discussed. This highlights two realities. What are these about?
DP2: It is said that China's approach may cause resentment. It implements only fewer projects than promised. In many cases, they use Chinese companies and workers, with little emphasis on local employment and training. In addition, borrowers from China's two largest policy banks usually pay full "non-concessional" interest rates. Sometimes there is corruption and shoddy work. In Sri Lanka, the Maldives, and Laos, Chinese loans have been unsuccessful as borrowers struggle to repay their loans. The scale of the problem is uncertain, and the lack of transparency also accompanies China's approach. What is the best solution to deal with this issue?
DP3: It is said that poor countries therefore tend to prefer options, especially Japan. Japan's aid activities are modest but have been ongoing for many years. Japan began providing aid in the 1950s, partly as atonement for its wartime aggression. Today, Japan seeks to build capacity as well as goods. Unlike China, Japan often works with local builders. Japan is the most trusted country in the region. unlike China, Japan provides development assistance loans at concessional rates, mainly through jica. The Japan Bank for International Cooperation (jbic) provides project finance for infrastructure development. This combination is a win-win.
Where do the differences in the way China and Japan provide aid come from?
DP4: It is said that because these regional partners believe in the same things: transparency, low corruption, rule of law, and safe sea lanes. These qualities also define the larger U.S.-led ambition of a "free and open Indo-Pacific," formulated with China's disdain for international rules and its vast territorial and territorial sea claims in mind. It is no wonder, then, that foreign development assistance is increasingly overshadowing security policy. Do you support this opinion?

Why the EU will not remain the world’s digital über-regulator.

Why the EU will not remain the world’s digital über-regulator

Europe | Geopolitical monster v Brussels effect
Why the EU will not remain the world’s digital über-regulator.
It is not a big enough player in AI.
 
DP1: The implementation of the Digital Services Act (DSA), which regulates social media, and the Digital Markets Act (DMA), which aims to ensure that major tech companies do not compete unfairly, is entering a critical phase.
as if these new rules were not enough, the powers that be in Brussels are already negotiating the next big technology policy package, the "AI Law."
this latest wave of digital rulemaking to roll out of Brussels raises one particularly important question. What is that?
DP2: It is said that EU law, especially digital law, tends to be a global standard, this is called the "Brussels effect." What is most influenced fact by it?
DP3: It is said that being the watchdog of rules has been useful in a world based on rules and markets but may prove to be meaningless in a world defined by increasing conflict between major powers. What does it mean?
What is the best solution to deal with this issue?
DP4: It is said that in privacy and social media, the EU is one of the largest markets in the world and tech companies need to follow its rules. While this is still true, Europe's global position in AI has declined considerably. Why is that? What is the best strategy to deal with this issue?
DP5: It is said that as all roads once led to Rome, the world's fiber-optic networks, financial systems, and semiconductor supply chains are concentrated in the U.S., allowing the U.S. to show off its power. Do you support this opinion?
DP6: How long can the European Union claim its role as a setter of global standards in the next wave of technology, despite its potentially minor role?

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1. 2023/09/16(Sat) 10 PM-12 AM_ Japan Time_ Topics
2. 2023/09/17(Sun) 9AM-11AM_ Japan Time_ Topics

① How artificial intelligence can revolutionize science.
② How scientists are using artificial intelligence
③ Could AI transform science itself?
④ A fresh wave of hard-right populism is stalking Europe.
⑤ The dangers posed by a deal between Russia and North Korea
⑥ The Mittelstand will redeem German innovation.
⑦ How fear has shaped human affairs.

How artificial intelligence can revolutionize science.

How artificial intelligence can revolutionise science

 Leaders | When robots do research.
How artificial intelligence can revolutionize science.
Consider the historical precedents.
 
DP1: It is said that discussions of artificial intelligence (AI) tend to focus on the potential dangers of algorithmic prejudice, discrimination, mass destruction of jobs, and even the extinction of the human race. But while others focus on the potential rewards, these are radically accelerating the pace of scientific discovery, especially in areas such as medicine, climate science, and green technology. Are you positive or negative about AI?
DP2: It is said that in the 17th century, microscopes and telescopes opened up new vistas of discovery, and researchers began to favor their own observations over the old, inherited wisdom. What is brought by the result of the discovery?
DP3: It is said that beginning in the late 19th century, laboratories were established to bring together ideas, people, and materials on an industrial scale, resulting in further innovations such as artificial fertilizers, pharmaceuticals, and transistors, the building blocks of computers. Since the mid-20th century, computers have been used for simulation and modeling, from weapons and aircraft design to more accurate weather forecasting. Do you support this opinion?
DP4: It is said that the computer revolution may not be over yet. AI tools and techniques are now being applied in virtually every field of science. However, the extent of their adoption varies widely. What are these about?
DP5: It is said that the journal and the lab have evolved even further. They have changed the practice of science itself, unleashing more powerful means of discovery by allowing people and ideas to intersect in new ways, and on a larger scale. Two areas are particularly promising. What are these about?
DP6: It is said that the idea of AI transforming scientific practice is therefore feasible. The main barriers, however, are sociological. It can only happen if human scientists are willing and able to use such tools. How does it work?
DP7: It is said that in 1665, at a time of rapid scientific progress, the advent of new scientific instruments such as microscopes and telescopes was "the addition of artificial organs to natural ones. They enabled researchers to explore previously inaccessible areas and discover things in new ways, to the great benefit of all kinds of useful knowledge, adding artificial intelligence to the scientific toolkit has similarly world-changing consequences. Do you support this opinion?

How scientists are using artificial intelligence

How scientists are using artificial intelligence

Science and technology | AI Science (1)
How scientists are using artificial intelligence
It is already making research faster, better, and more productive
 
DP1: It is said that if discovering a new drug is like finding a needle in a haystack, AI is like a metal detector. It takes years of clinical trials to get a potential drug out of the lab and into the clinic. But AI has certainly accelerated the initial trial-and-error part of the process. How does it work?
DP2: It is said that AI has the potential to bring about a new renaissance of discovery. Why is that?
DP3: It is said that AI has been part of the scientific toolkit since the 1960s, but for most of its life it has remained confined to fields where scientists are already familiar with computer code, for example, particle physics and mathematics. However, the rise of deep learning will result in more than 99% of research fields producing AI-related results by 2023. Why is that?  How does it work?
DP4: It is said that in 2021, Google Deep Minds developed a model to predict protein structures from amino acid sequences alone; since its release, AlphaFold has created a database of more than 200 million protein structure predictions and has already been used by more than 1.2 million researchers. How does it work?
DP5: It is said that just as large language models (LLM) can generate fluent sentences by predicting the next best word in a sequence of words, generative molecular models can build molecules, atom by atom, bond by bond. How does it work?
DP6: It is said that if LLM could prompt real (or fabricated) backstories to accurately reflect what human participants would say, it could theoretically replace focus groups or be used as an agent in economic research. Do you support this opinion?
DP7: It is said that while AI may help scientists fill knowledge gaps, models still struggle to push the limits of what is already known. These systems are good at interpolating between dots, but not so good at extrapolating to imagine where the next point will go. There are also difficult problems that even the most successful of today's AI systems cannot yet handle. What is the best solution to deal with this issue?
DP8: It is said that if AI tools succeed in increasing research productivity, the world will undoubtedly have the multiplier of human ingenuity. Just as telescopes and microscopes show scientists more of the world, probabilistic data-driven models used in AI will increasingly enable scientists to better model and understand complex systems.
Do you believe this opinion?

Could AI transform science itself?

Could AI transform science itself?

 Science and technology | Robot scientists
Could AI transform science itself?
Previous scientific revolutions have been led by academic journals and laboratories. Robots might create the next one.
 
DP1: It is said that by amplifying human intelligence, AI may trigger a new renaissance, perhaps a new phase of the Enlightenment. Do you believe this opinion?
DP2: It is said that with the advent of the scientific method in the 17th century, researchers came to trust experimental observations and the theories derived from them more than long-accepted common sense. Critical to this process was the advent of scientific journals. How did it work?
DP3: It is said that further transformations began in the late 19th century with the establishment of the Institutes. Laboratories were factories of innovation where ideas, people, and materials could be combined on an industrial scale. This led to a further outpouring of innovation, from chemistry and semiconductors to pharmaceuticals. Not only do they produce new results, they produce new ways to produce new results.
How does it work?
DP4: It is said that a promising approach is "literature-based discovery" (LBD), which, as its name suggests, aims to make new discoveries by analyzing the scientific literature. Today, AI systems are far more capable of natural language processing and have a much larger corpus of scientific literature to chew on. interest in LBD-style approaches is now growing in other fields, especially materials science. How does it work?
DP5: It is said that in addition to suggesting new hypotheses to investigate, the LBD system, which takes authors into account, can also suggest collaborators who may not know each other. This approach is particularly effective when identifying scientists working in different fields and bridging complementary research areas. How does it work?
DP6: It is said that if LBD promises to supercharge journals with AI, "robot scientists," or "automated labs," promise to do the same for labs. These machines go beyond existing forms of lab automation, such as drug screening platforms. Instead, they are given background knowledge about a particular research area in the form of data, research papers, and patents. They then use AI to generate hypotheses, conduct experiments with the robot, evaluate the results, revise the hypotheses, and repeat the cycle. Do you believe this opinion?
DP7: It is said that robotic scientists can transform science in other ways as well, by helping to solve some of the problems that plague the scientific enterprise. Unlike humans, robots can work around the clock. Just as computers and robots have made possible large-scale projects in astronomy, robotic scientists can tackle major problems in systems biology.
Do you believe this opinion?
DP8: It is said that scientists have little incentive to reproduce the work of others and are under pressure to publish new results rather than validate existing ones. How do robotic scientists solve these issues?
DP9: What are two major obstacles to automatic functions? What is the best solution to deal with these issues?
DP10: It is said that scientific journals have changed the way scientists discover information and develop research with each other. Laboratories expanded the scale of experimentation and industrialized. By extending and combining these two transformations, AI can change the way science is done. Do you believe this opinion?

A fresh wave of hard-right populism is stalking Europe.

A fresh wave of hard-right populism is stalking Europe

Leaders | The real threat from Europe’s hard right
A fresh wave of hard-right populism is stalking Europe
In Germany, the AfD are weaponising climate change
 
DP1: It is said that the hard right could gain further ground in the European Parliament elections scheduled for next Jun, the new right-wing wave is a major challenge. If handled incorrectly, it could poison politics, disenfranchise a majority of voters, and hinder important reforms in the European Union. What is the best strategy to deal with this issue?
DP2: It is said that the hard right in Europe has made several breakthroughs in the past quarter century. The new wave is different in three ways. What are these about?
DP3: It is said that extreme caution should be exercised in decisions to bring hard-right parties into local or national government, especially in places where the history of fascism evokes acute sensitivities. What is the best solution to deal with this issue?
DP4: It is said that mainstream parties must accept that they are not doing enough to satisfy an angry minority of the public. Both better communication and compensation for the worst victims are essential. Failure to control borders alienates people, but a well-managed immigration system benefits them. The new success of the hard right in Europe is in part a failure of the center. Do you support this opinion?

The dangers posed by a deal between Russia and North Korea

The dangers posed by a deal between Russia and North Korea

Leaders | When Kim met Putin.
The dangers posed by a deal between Russia and North Korea
It would make life harder for Ukraine—and heighten nuclear risks in Asia.
 
DP1: It is said that Russia and North Korea are backward. Kim is the grandson of a tyrant imposed on North Korea by Stalin. Mr. Putin is nostalgic for Russia's imperialist past. Today, however, the threat posed by both is clear and present. An alliance between the two could transform the war situation in Ukraine by supplying Russia with new weapons. It could also escalate the nuclear arms race in Asia. Why is that? What is the best solution to deal with this issue?
DP2: It is said that one factor that makes it difficult to predict is China, which has a certain amount of influence over both dictatorships. China wants a protracted, bloody 20th century-style war in Ukraine to split Europe and the U.S. but is wary of nuclear proliferation. A deal between Russia and North Korea would test that argument. What is the expected role of China in preventing nuclear proliferation?
DP3: What should we do to prevent the nuclear war?

The Mittelstand will redeem German innovation.

The Mittelstand will redeem German innovation

Business | Schumpeter
The Mittelstand will redeem German innovation.
Deutschland AG’s bright light bulb
 
DP1: It is said that talk to any German boss these days, and sooner or later you will hear about "Buddenbruck". This epic poem by Thomas Mann about a family of grain merchants and their downfall has become required reading in German business circles and schools. Today, the story is used as a convenient metaphor for the decline of the German economy. What is it about?
DP2: It is said that Mittelstand is home to 3.5 million small and medium-sized businesses. Their products are diverse, from chainsaws to industrial software. There are also large and well-established companies. Despite this diversity, they have two important things in common. What are these about?
DP3: It is said that if Buddenbrook appears in the latest chapter of the Mittelstand story, it is the German government. Policymakers and bureaucrats are too set in their ways. They seem fixated on red tape and high taxes and don't care about supporting innovation. What is the best solution to deal with this issue?
DP4: What is the expected policy to extend the innovation?

How fear has shaped human affairs.

How fear has shaped human affairs

 Culture | Scare-brained
How fear has shaped human affairs.
A new history argues that power depends on frightening people.
 
DP1: It is said that one of the bestselling books of all time was about witches. It was not a hilariously entertaining novel like Harry Potter. Instead, it was a serious instructional book on how to identify, capture, torture into confession, and ultimately kill Satan's servants. "Malleus Maleficarum" ("The Hammer of Witches"), published in 1486, sold more copies over the next two centuries than any book except the Bible.
Why is that?
DP2: It is said that anxiety about witches was born of ignorance. Those who knew nothing about microbes speculated that diseases and other calamities were caused by magic. But the fear could also be manipulated for political purposes: in the 16th century, Christianity was divided, with the Pope and various Protestant powers vying for control. Exterminating witches was a convenient way for earthly rulers to show which side they were on: the side of God, not the devil. Do you support this opinion?
DP3: It is said that "Power depends on fear." The part of the confusion of the Reformation and Counter-Reformation was due to the Catholic Church losing its "monopoly of fear" in Western Europe. For a thousand years the Church has convinced people that they alone hold the keys to the afterlife. By selling indulgences, the Church was able to cash in on people's fear of eternal suffering. Do you support this opinion?
DP4: It is said that medical science has advanced over the centuries, but human nature has not changed much. Fear of coronaviruses has spawned all kinds of conspiracy theories, and many governments have used pandemic panic to suppress civil liberties. What is the best solution to deal with this issue?
DP5: It is said that there are two reasons why you should read this book. First, in many countries, including China, India, and Russia, governments have stepped up their use of fear to maintain civil order. Second, people's memories of how such tactics have worked in the past are alarmingly vague. almost half of young Russians had never heard of Stalin's reign of terror. Do you support this opinion?

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1. 2023/09/09(Sat) 10 PM-12 AM_ Japan Time_ Topics
2. 2023/09/10(Sun) 9AM-11AM_ Japan Time_ Topics

① America’s Supreme Court should adopt new ethics standards.
② Heat pumps show how hard decarbonization will be.
③ Propane-powered heat pumps are greener.
④ The Gulf countries want to reshape the Middle East in their image.
⑤ How Chicago school economists reshaped American justice.

America’s Supreme Court should adopt new ethics standards.

America’s Supreme Court should adopt new ethics standards

Leaders | Reform thyself
America’s Supreme Court should adopt new ethics standards.
Lifetime tenure can easily slip into entitlement.

DP1: It is said that the coming term will be a year of anguish for the Supreme Court. Whether Donald Trump becomes president again and whether he goes to jail will depend on a combination of voters and the court. Why is that?
DP2: It is said that if the 2024 presidential election is close, the courts may have to step in and rule. With so much at stake, America needs a Supreme Court that is widely seen as legitimate and, ideally, impartial. What is the best solution to deal with this issue?
DP3: It is said that the trust in the Court is at its lowest level since polls began asking about the Court. Why is that?
DP4: It is said that what judges can control is their own ethical standards. Some have failed in this regard. What is it about?
DP5: It is said that most federal employees are prohibited from accepting gifts of $20 or more. By contrast, members of the Supreme Court are largely self-regulated. tenure, which we have argued should be abolished, fosters a sense of entitlement. Do you support this opinion?
DP6: It is said that since the Democrats no longer have a majority in both the House and Senate, further reforms are unlikely to be enacted through legislation. Therefore, the courts must voluntarily adopt new standards. This must be transparent and binding, not discretionary. Otherwise, voters may conclude that some judges are less interested in the law than in the benefits to be derived from it. Now more than ever, America needs a court that is untainted and appears to be so. What are the ideal new standards of the courts?

Heat pumps show how hard decarbonization will be.

Heat pumps show how hard decarbonisation will be

Leaders | In hot water
Heat pumps show how hard decarbonization will be.
The row over them portends more backlashes against greenery.
 
DP1: It is said that 12 European countries plan to phase out fossil fuels from building heating, and air-source heat pumps are emerging as the best alternative. These heat pumps extract ambient heat from the outside air and concentrate it to heat indoor spaces, even in freezing temperatures. Heat pumps are much more efficient than boilers in terms of energy use per unit heating value. Recently, however, heat pumps have become a symbol of the obstacles that lie in wait as countries try to decarbonize. What are these about?
DP2: It is said that Heat pumps, which can easily replace boilers, will eventually hit the market. But even then, households will not be completely spared from the disruption. What is the best solution to deal with this issue?
DP3: It is said that Decarbonization on the scale necessary to avert a global disaster will be painful. Voters will often oppose, and sometimes may even dismiss environmentally friendly governments. What is the best solution to deal with this issue?

Propane-powered heat pumps are greener

Propane-powered heat pumps are greener

Science and technology | All that gas.
Propane-powered heat pumps are greener.
And easier to install in leaky old buildings.
 
DP1: It is said that electricity can be made from the sun, wind, and atoms instead of burning fossil fuels. cars, buses, and perhaps even freight vehicles run on batteries, not gasoline or diesel. But other parts of the economy are harder to decarbonize. One such tricky part is air and water heating in homes and businesses. In principle, there is a solution, that is heat pumps. How does it work? What are several concerns and benefits of using it?
DP2: It is said that most modern heat pumps use hydrofluorocarbons (HFCS) as refrigerant. What is it about? How does it work?
DP3: It is said that other refrigerants also exist. The chemical industry has developed chemicals called hydrofluoric-olefins (HFOS). What is it about? How does it work?
DP4: It is said that some natural refrigerants were used in refrigeration long before synthetics were developed. They include ammonia and carbon dioxide itself. However, the leading candidate to replace HFCS in residential heat pumps is propane. What are the major concerns about using it?
DP5: It is said that within the next few years, the new design, which includes a small amount of propane, will make it possible to directly replace gas boilers in apartments with heat pumps that are safe, environmentally friendly, and generate similar temperatures. Do you support this opinion?

The Gulf countries want to reshape the Middle East in their image.

The Gulf countries want to reshape the Middle East in their image

Briefing | Reorientation
The Gulf countries want to reshape the Middle East in their image
Stability and development is a tempting formula, but it has been tried before
 
 
DP1: It is said that the "new" Middle East will focus on economics rather than democratization, Islamization, or other blinkered ideologies. Diplomacy will bring stability, which will spur investment and growth, allowing everyone to move past the upheavals of decades past. The Gulf states have long applied this model to their own countries. The Middle East has great potential. Do you support this opinion?
DP2: It is said that the history of the past two decades in the Middle East has been one of conflict and despair. What was it about?
DP3: It is said that three major changes are underway that could change the Middle East's place in the world. What are these?
DP4: It is said that the leaders of the Gulf states also seem to have a new outlook. For the past decade, they have sought to use force to transform the region. The era of macho foreign policy is over, at least for now. Do you believe so?
DP5: It is said that the optimists wonder what will happen next. As the Middle East settles down, there will be less risk to world trade and energy flows, and fewer refugees. As Western companies seek to diversify their supply chains, the youthful Middle East could become a new manufacturing hub. Do you believe so?
DP6: It is said that infrastructure could also be integrated; GCC countries have long proposed rail integration and could easily connect with Iraqi, Israeli, and Jordanian railroads. Pipelines could carry low-cost Saudi hydrogen across the Mediterranean to European consumers. Improved transmission lines would allow sun-drenched regions to export solar power.
It is an attractive vision, but one with many pitfalls. First, economic development over the past few years has been uneven. For a long time, the Middle East has been a place of constant political divisions: revolutionaries and royalists, nationalists and Islamists, Sunnis and Shiites. Today, however, the most important differences are economic: prosperous and impoverished states. Unfortunately, most of the Middle East is impoverished. What is the best solution to deal with this issue?
DP7: It is said that the countries in the Middle East are struggling with deep structural problems. What are those about?
DP8: What are several risks in the Middle East? What is the best strategy to deal with these?
DP9: It is said that an era of peace and development is an attractive vision, but to achieve it, the dictators of the region must be serious about maintaining peace and smart about rebuilding their economies. The current situation gives them a chance to change, and technological and geopolitical forces provide the incentive. The rest is up to them. But We cannot stop the war in the Middle East. What is the best solution to deal with this issue?

How Chicago school economists reshaped American justice

How Chicago school economists reshaped American justice

 Finance and economics | Prophets of maximization
How Chicago school economists reshaped American justice
The 50th anniversary of a groundbreaking work
 
DP1: It is said that in recent years, the Antitrust Division of the U.S. Department of Justice has filed a record number of lawsuits against corporate mergers in an effort to prevent large companies from becoming even larger. With few exceptions, these efforts have been thwarted by the courts. Why is that?
DP2: It is said that with the advent of "law and economics," all legal issues were suddenly addressed in the context of actors' incentives and the changes they create. In "Crime and Punishment: An Economic Approach" (1968). Becker’s theoretical development has been supported by empirical evidence in the decades since. What is it about?
DP3: It is said that the relentless lens of economic analysis is now being turned on the law and economics itself, a promising trend. Thanks to the empiricism of behavioral economics, it is less bound by abstract concepts such as the perfectly rational actor. Do you support this opinion?

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1. 2023/09/02(Sat) 10 PM-12 AM_ Japan Time_ Topics
2. 2023/09/03(Sun) 9AM-11AM_ Japan Time_ Topics

① How paranoid nationalism corrupts
② How cynical leaders are whipping up nationalism to win and abuse power.
③ How worried should you be about AI disrupting elections?
④ AI will change American elections, but not in the obvious way.
⑤ How to stop a three-way nuclear arms race
⑥ A new nuclear arms race loom
⑦ How will politicians escape enormous public debts?

How paranoid nationalism corrupts

How paranoid nationalism corrupts

 Leaders | Global politics
How paranoid nationalism corrupts
Cynical leaders are scaremongering to win and abuse power

DP1: It is said that the postwar order of open trade and universal values has been strained by the U.S.-China conflict. ordinary people feel threatened by forces beyond their control, from hunger and poverty to climate change and violence—parasitic politicians who exploit paranoid nationalism prey on citizens' fears and degrade the global order.
What is the best solution to deal with this issue?
DP2: It is said that paranoid nationalism functions through a mixture of exaggeration and lies. it is clear that the preachers of paranoid nationalism hurt the targets of their rhetoric, their real intent is to deceive their own followers. By fomenting nationalist fervor, self-serving leaders can more easily gain power. Once in power, they can divert the public's attention from their own misdeeds by abusing their enemies, who are supposed to keep them in check. What is the best solution to deal with this issue?
DP3: It is said that since 2012, governments have become more nationalistic, and as nationalism increases, corruption tends to increase as well. Why is that?
DP4: It is said that paranoid nationalism plays a more important role as a tool to dismantle the checks and balances that underpin good governance: a free press, independent courts, NGOs, and loyal opposition parties. Do you support this opinion?
DP5: It is said that those in power have made up or exaggerated threats against the state as an excuse to undermine the courts, the press, and the opposition. And this has prolonged or exacerbated corrupt regimes. What is the best strategy to deal with this issue?
DP6: It is said that the end of the Cold War has allowed democracy to flourish around the world. A number of countries introduced free elections and restrictions on executive power. Many politicians, greedy for power and plunder, were frustrated by this; in the general disillusionment that followed the financial crisis of 2007-2009, they saw an opportunity to regain control. Paranoid nationalism gave them the means to dismantle pesky checks and balances. What is the best strategy to deal with this issue?
DP7: It is said that paranoid nationalism will not go away. Not only have Western nations lost faith in their program of spreading democracy and good governance, but paranoid nationalist China tends to find contempt and threats everywhere, spreading the idea that the universal values of tolerance and good governance are racist forms of imperialism. They prefer non-interference from abroad and zero criticism at home. If only the public could see through the lies behind the paranoid nationalism, they would realize how wrong the Chinese campaign is. Wishing for a better life is neither racist nor dishonest. Do you support this opinion?

How cynical leaders are whipping up nationalism to win and abuse power?

How cynical leaders are whipping up nationalism to win and abuse power

Briefing | Looters with flags
How cynical leaders are whipping up nationalism to win and abuse power?
Hatemongers often erode checks on misrule and corruption.
 
DP1: Why did Tunisian President Qais give Tunisians license to openly engage in racism?
DP2: It is said that Tunisia's inflation is largely due to the government, but blacks are blamed for eating up bread and driving up prices. By declaring to protect the Tunisian people from phantom threats. He has also deflected attention away from Tunisia's responsibility for its ills. Is his action appropriate as a president?
DP3: It is said that the president's hate-mongering words and actions have also distracted attention from other problematic actions he is taking, such as muzzling the press, purging the judiciary, and closing the national anti-corruption watchdog. Tunisia is more fearful, less free, and more corrupt. Its score on the corruption perception index (cpi), compiled by the watchdog Transparency International, has deteriorated significantly since 2021, when Said began dismantling its young and hopeful democracy.
What is the best solution to deal with this issue?
DP4: It is said that Tunisia reflects a global trend. More and more leaders are using nationalism as a tool to gain and abuse power. Nationalism, once a means to dismantle deplorable colonial empires, has recently become a device to remove legitimate constraints on government power. Leaders who dislike checks and balances need an excuse to abolish them. They can't be bothered to follow the rules, and they want to rule with unfettered authority. So they accuse journalists and judges of being traitors and agents of foreign powers. What is the best solution to deal with this issue?
DP5: nationalism can be positive or negative. Positive nationalism, the love of one's country, can be a force for good. Nationalism is the most powerful basis for solidarity among people who otherwise have little in common. But it is dangerous when they espouse negative nationalism. Outsiders can be foreigners or national minorities. Perhaps this paranoid variant is so powerful because it is based on a deep-seated instinct, the desire to protect one's own tribe. The drawbacks of paranoid nationalism are obvious. Do you support this opinion?
DP6: It is said that unscrupulous leaders have found that they can win similar polls by vowing to protect people from trumped-up threats. Putin claims that his unspoken attack on Ukraine is really to protect Russia from Western aggression and Ukrainian Nazis. Many Russians believe him. Despite the cost of the war in blood, treasure, and international isolation to Russia, independent polls show that Putin's approval rating has risen since the war began. What is the best solution to deal with this issue?
DP7: It is said that politics based on prejudice opens the door to misrule and corruption. Mr. Putin has spent the past two decades reinforcing nationalist propaganda and his cronies have repeatedly looted Russia. In fact, there is a clear statistical correlation between nationalism and corruption. Do you believe this assumption?
DP8: It is said that from 2012 to 2021, governments became more dependent on nationalism to legitimize themselves. (Specifically, it is an ideology that includes nationalistic elements. It also includes other elements such as populism and Islamism.) The typical citizen is witnessing the state's increased use of nationalism. Why is that?
DP9: What are three possibilities that nationalism fosters abuse of power?
DP10: It is said that in the long run, if a leader uses nationalism to undermine checks and balances, he and his successors are more likely to loot. a nationalist dictator who was far more interested in power than money was unable to stop the looting by his cronies and was eventually toppled by them. Do you believe this assumption?
DP11: It is said that paranoid nationalism tends to worsen the governance of a country and reduce its stability. when voters choose candidates, on the basis of ethnicity rather than integrity and competence, they end up with less honest and competent representatives. What is the best strategy to deal with this issue?

How worried should you be about AI disrupting elections?

How worried should you be about AI disrupting elections?

Leaders | AI voted
How worried should you be about AI disrupting elections?
Disinformation will become easier to produce, but it matters less than you might think
 
DP1: It is said that politics is supposed to be about persuasion, but politics has always been accompanied by propaganda. Campaigners lie, exaggerate, and lie. Using every means available to them, they disseminate lies, from petty lies to outright lies. What is the best solution to deal with this issue?
DP2: It is said that until now, disinformation has always been created by humans. Advances in generative artificial intelligence (AI) are enabling synthetic propaganda through models that can spit out sophisticated essays and create realistic images from text prompts. The fear is that disinformation campaigns may be supercharged in 2024 when countries with a total population of about 4 billion. What is the best strategy to deal with this issue?
DP3: what three major impacts could a large-scale language model change in the 2024 elections?
DP4: It is said there is reason to believe that AI will not spoil humanity's 2,500-year experiment in democracy. Many people believe that others are more gullible than they are. In fact, it isn't easy to persuade voters. America's multi-billion-dollar campaign industry that uses humans to persuade voters will bring only marginal changes in voter behavior. Do you support this opinion?
DP5: It is said that social media platforms are places where misinformation can be spread, and AI companies are looking at the risks. openai, which operates Chatgpt, says it will monitor usage to detect political influence activities. What is the important role of the AI company in dealing with this misinformation?
DP6: It is said that voluntary regulation has its limits, and nonvoluntary regulation carries risks. Open-source models such as Meta's Llama, which generates text, and Stable Diffusion, which generates images, can be used without oversight. The agency that regulates U.S. elections is considering disclosure requirements for campaigns that use synthetically generated images. This is sensible, but malicious vendors will not comply. What is the appropriate regulation to prevent AI from
disrupting elections?
DP7: It is said that the US presidential election of 2024 will be marred by disinformation about the rule of law and the integrity of elections. But the source of the problem will not be a novelty like Chatgpt. It is Trump.
Do you support this opinion? If so, what is the solution to deal with this issue?

AI will change American elections, but not in the obvious way.

AI will change American elections, but not in the obvious way

United States | Mr. Bot goes to Washington.
AI will change American elections, but not in the obvious way.
How polarization inoculates Americans against misinformation.
 
DP1: It is said that a "deep fake" generated by artificial intelligence (AI) software trained to mimic candidates ' voices is the kind of incident that keeps candidates, political analysts, and those concerned about the health of our democracy awake at night. What is the best solution to deal with this issue?
DP2: It is said that election staffers in technical roles are surprisingly cool to the idea of elections being overshadowed by AI. There has not yet been a single convincing case that Deepfake has made any difference in politics. Why is that?
DP3: It is said that the most commonly aired scenario for how AI can undermine elections is to release misleading information on social media to sway enough voters. But this misunderstands how Americans form opinions. Why is that?
DP4: It is said that even highly trained and well-paid professionals struggle to change voters' opinions. The estimated marginal effect of most political advertising in the United States is close to zero (a phenomenon political scientists call the "minimum effect hypothesis") What is the best strategy to change the voters' opinions?
DP5: It is said that social media may not have shaped American political life as much as is generally thought. Why is that?
DP6: It is said that AI advances may help curb AI abuses by detecting the use of influence. AI is both a threat and a boon for many election operatives. Do you support this opinion?
DP7: It is said that in contrast to other industries in politics, AI's cheerleaders are hoping that its impact will be mostly mundane. At present, their hopes appear to be fulfilled. Do you support this opinion?

How to stop a three-way nuclear arms race

How to stop a three-way nuclear arms-race

Leaders | Destroyer of worlds
How to stop a three-way nuclear arms race
America, China, and Russia must agree on mutual restraints before it’s too late.

DP1: It is said that the Cuban Missile Crisis of 1962 nearly brought about the destruction of the world. Fortunately, the superpowers stepped back from the brink and agreed to an arms control agreement. But now the world is entering a new nuclear arms race. Vladimir Putin's nuclear threat in Ukraine and China's rapid weapons buildup have increased instability. And arms control is collapsing. First Russia and later the United States suspended the exchange of information under the New START, the last arrangement to limit nuclear weapons. The treaty will expire in February 2026, and there is little to replace it. China has never been concerned about such restrictions. The U.S., China, and Russia need to start talks now before another Cuban-style crisis occurs. What is the best solution to deal with this issue?
DP2: It is said that the concept of "mutually assured destruction," developed during the Cold War, contains a sobering logic. Now, however, deterrence is further complicated by the prospect of three nuclear powers existing in roughly equal numbers. The balance of fear is also being upset by the possibility of new missiles, sensors, and artificial intelligence influencing decision-making. What is the best solution to deal with this issue?
DP3: It is said that stability requires a mix of threats and reassurances. The major powers need to discuss all aspects of the nuclear enterprise, not just missile defense, nuclear weapons, and tactical weapons. They must also consider outer space and cyberspace, where the first shots of the next war may be fired. What is an appropriate arms control agreement expected among major powers?
DP4: It is said that No one benefits from unbridled nuclear competition. It would be a waste of enormous resources. And in an unrestricted nuclear-armed world, everyone is on a high wire. Negotiated restraint is the only way to avoid the horror of the chain reaction that would destroy the whole world. What is the best solution to deal with this issue?

A new nuclear arms race loom

A new nuclear arms race looms

 International | Oppenheimer’s nightmares
A new nuclear arms race loom
It will be harder to stop than the contest of the Cold War.
 
DP1: It is said that the world is moving toward a new nuclear arms race. It will be perhaps even more difficult to stop than during the Cold War. Not least because of the complexity of the three-pronged deterrence involving a rising China. The danger of a chain reaction that destroys the entire world is growing ever greater. What is the best strategy to deal with this issue?
DP2: It is said that New START will expire in February 2026, and there is little prospect of a subsequent agreement. In less than three years, the last major check on the world's nuclear arsenal may be gone. What is the best strategy to deal with this issue?
DP3: It is said that new technology could exacerbate the problem. Hypersonic missiles are more difficult to detect and shoot down than ballistic missiles. Increased sensors and accuracy raise concerns about surprise attacks that can be disabling. The proliferation of artificial intelligence (AI) also raises the question of the extent to which nuclear warfare can be fought by computers. What is the best strategy to deal with this issue?
DP4: It is said that the U.S. is eager to modernize its nuclear "trinity" with new surface, air, and sea systems. The implicit goal is to revitalize the nuclear industrial base so that more nuclear weapons can be produced in the future when they are needed. a government-funded research institute that designs nuclear warheads and other nuclear weapons mentioned that the U.S. should expand its nuclear capability through "rapid uploading" when the New START expires. Do you believe that it is an appropriate action to keep the world peace?
DP5: It is said that the question now is whether humanity still has the power to save itself in the face of a new nuclear nightmare. Do you believe that human beings can control the world power game without the nuclear weapon?

How will politicians escape enormous public debts?

How will politicians escape enormous public debts?

 Finance and economics | Free exchange
How will politicians escape enormous public debts?
They will be unable to repeat the tricks of the 19th and 20th centuries
 
DP1: It is said that by 2025, five of the G7 group of major wealthy nations will have net debt-to-GDP ratios exceeding 100%. How will governments ease these burdens?
DP2: It is said that economic powers have always been heavily indebted. Roughly speaking, they have dealt with it by adopting one of two strategies. We call them austerity and arithmetic finance. What are these about？
DP3: It is said that unless artificial intelligence and other technological innovations bring about further changes in productivity growth, today's aging economy is unlikely to match its postwar expansion rate. There are good reasons why interest rates are expected to be "naturally" lower, such as the increase in savings associated with an aging society. However, as the recent rise in long-term bond yields indicates, investors appear to be skeptical. Monetary repression and high inflation will require fundamental reforms to bring down real interest rates, including the central bank abandoning its inflation target and reversing much of the financial liberalization that took place at the end of the 20th century.
Do you support this opinion? If so, what kind of monetary policy is expected by the central bank?
DP4: It is said that Governments will have to live with high debt. All politicians can do is try not to make a bad situation worse. However, given the ongoing debt accumulation, it is unlikely that politicians will follow this advice. As it stands now, the US will spend 3.2% of GDP on interest in 2030, which is on par with the post-war record. Twenty years after that, it will exceed 6%. If another pandemic or major war occurs in the meantime, the bill could be much higher. What is the best solution to deal with this issue?

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1. 2023/08/26(Sat) 10 PM-12 AM_ Japan Time_ Topics
2. 2023/08/27(Sun) 9AM-11AM_ Japan Time_ Topics

① AI could fortify big business, not upend it.
② Why China’s economy won’t be fixed.
③ Superbatteries will transform the performance of Evs.
④ America’s corporate giants are getting harder to topple
⑤ Corporate America risks losing the Supreme Court

AI could fortify big business, not upend it.

AI could fortify big business, not upend it

Leaders | Undisrupted
AI could fortify big business, not upend it.
Upstarts face an uphill battle.
 
DP1: It is said that artificial intelligence is as disruptive a technology as the Internet and microprocessors. From media and education to law and medicine, vast areas of human endeavor are expected to be turned upside down. Do you believe this opinion?
DP2: It is said that Some of these startups will form new industries as model builders and innovators, and will be highly valued, just as today's tech giants have emerged in the Internet age. In other areas of the economy, however, it is difficult to say that radical change will leave today's corporate Goliaths in the history books. Why is that?
DP3: It is said that another reason to suspect that AI will overturn the pecking order concerns how to access models. What is it about?
DP4: It is said that a final reason to expect that established firms will prevail is history. What is it about?
DP5: It is said that it is clear that survival is not guaranteed. companies that delay AI adoption will cede their advantage to faster rivals.
What do you think the best strategy is to deal with this issue?

Why China’s economy won’t be fixed.

Why China’s economy won’t be fixed

Leaders | Xi’s broken model
Why China’s economy won’t be fixed.
An increasingly autocratic government is making bad decisions.
 
DP1: It is said that Agrarian reform, industrialization, and rising incomes have lifted nearly 800 million people out of extreme poverty; in 1980, China's economy produced only one-tenth of what the U.S. did; today it is about three-quarters the size. But after the government abandoned its "zero-cost" policy at the end of 2022, instead of reviving, China's economy has hit rock bottom one after another. What went wrong After China's return to the world economy in 1978?
DP2: It is said that while much of the world is battling too-high inflation, China is suffering from the opposite problem. Some analysts warn that China could fall into a deflationary trap like Japan in the 1990s. However, Japanization is too mild a diagnosis for China's foci. Why is that?
DP3: It is said that the policy failure appears to be a simple error in decision-making rather than a new policy of self-sacrificing emphasis on national security. Why is that?
DP4: Why do governments repeat their mistakes?
DP5: It is said that with the message from the top that loyalty is more important than anything else, it is naive to expect rational analysis or creative ideas from the bureaucracy. Instead, decision-making is increasingly dominated by an ideology that blends left-wing suspicion of rich entrepreneurs with a right-wing reluctance to give money to lazy poor people. Do you support this opinion?

Superbatteries will transform the performance of Evs.

Superbatteries will transform the performance of EVs

 Science & technology | Electric cars
Superbatteries will transform the performance of EVs.
Provided manufacturers can find enough raw materials to make them.
 
DP1: what are three things many drivers want most from an electric vehicle?
DP2: It is said that Lightweight, high-capacity, rechargeable lithium-ion batteries have lowered costs, extended range, and brought the electrification of transportation into full swing. Solid-state lithium-ion batteries have the potential to bring another revolution.
Do you support this opinion?
DP3: It is said that automakers were originally attracted to solid-state batteries to improve safety. This is because, as powerful as they are, conventional lithium-ion batteries carry risks. What kind of risks it has?
DP4: It is said that despite its fiery nature, the electrolyte is used in liquid form for a reason. What is the reason? How does it work?
DP5: What are the main technical challenges in the manufacture of solid-state batteries?
DP6: It is said that capacity is only one of the characteristics of a battery. How quickly they can provide power, how long they can last, and how much they cost are equally important. Solving these problems, however, involves tradeoffs. What does it mean?  What is the best solution to deal with this issue?
DP7: It is said that currently, standard lithium-ion batteries account for about 40% of the cost of EVs. This percentage will have to be reduced if solid state super batteries are to allow electric vehicles to compete on price as well.  What is the best strategy to deal with this issue?

America’s corporate giants are getting harder to topple

America’s corporate giants are getting harder to topple

 Business | Goliath’s triumph
America’s corporate giants are getting harder to topple
Incumbents from Walmart to General Motors are fighting back against disrupters
 
DP1: It is said that established companies hesitate to pursue radical innovations that make their products and services cheaper and more convenient. Why is that?
DP2: It is said that in the Internet age, America Inc. has experienced surprisingly little competitive disruption. Incumbents appear to be more secure. And there is good reason to believe they will remain so. What is that?
DP3: It is said that only 52 of the 500 companies were born after 1990, the benchmark for the Internet age, and 280 were born before the US entry into World War II.
What are three reasons that explain the survival of established firms in the U.S.?
DP4: It is said that established firms and new entrants often play complementary roles in innovation. What is a David and Goliath symbiosis about “?
DP5: Why many are the startups acquired by established firms?
DP6: It is said that the most efficient way for an innovative new company to bring a breakthrough drug to the market is to be taken over by an established giant. Do you support this opinion?

Corporate America risks losing the Supreme Court

Corporate America risks losing the Supreme Court

Business | Schumpeter
Corporate America risks losing the Supreme Court
It has already lost the Republican right. What’s next?
 
DP1: It is said that some of the Court's recent decisions have been influenced by an originalist interpretation of the Constitution that turns a blind eye to the state of business 235 years later, ruling against corporate interests on issues ranging from interstate commerce to affirmative action and embarrassing corporate America. As courts have become less pragmatic, they have become more unpredictable. And corporations rebel against uncertainty. What is the best strategy to deal with this issue?
DP2: It is said that history shows how the Court's ideology has affected American commerce. What is it about?
DP3: It is said that it has long been settled law that a corporation can be held legally liable where the injury occurred or where its base is located. However, a ruling issued in the state law allows companies to be prosecuted in the state's courts even if the injury occurred elsewhere. What is the best strategy to deal with this issue?
DP4: It is said that while some in the private sector welcome curbs on administrative power, last year's West Virginia v. Environmental Protection Agency case curbed epa's ability to regulate greenhouse gas emissions from coal-burning power plants and set back the transition to cleaner fuels that many companies support. What is the best solution to deal with this issue?
DP5: How does the Supreme Court trade off the needs of the government and the company?
 

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1. 2023/08/19(Sat) 10 PM-12 AM_ Japan Time_ Topics
2. 2023/08/20(Sun) 9AM-11AM_ Japan Time_ Topics

① India must abandon protectionism.
② Is Germany once again the sick man of Europe?
③ Can computing clean up its act?
④ AI is setting off a great scramble for data.
⑤ The battle between American workers and technology heats up
⑥ Having shaken off nationalism, Europe risks civilizationalism
⑦ The BRICS bloc is riven with tensions

India must abandon protectionism.

India must abandon protectionism

Leaders | Beware the Licence Raj
India must abandon protectionism.
High tariffs and licensing do not help development—they hurt it.

DP1: It is said that the Indian government is convinced that reducing imports is necessary for security and manufacturing job creation, but India's strategy is not working. Why is that?
DP2: It is said that South Korea has developed rapidly since 1970. Why is that?DP3: It is said that before the reforms of the 1990s, India was known for its "licensing system. This imposed rules that made it impossible to do anything without government permission, creating a lucrative insider class that knew how to use the system. If India returns to those bad times instead of opening up, India will not be able to capitalize on its moment of economic opportunity and its 1.4 billion citizens will pay the price. What is the best strategy to deal with this issue?

Is Germany once again the sick man of Europe?

Is Germany once again the sick man of Europe?

Leaders | Economic malaise
Is Germany once again the sick man of Europe?
Its ills are different from 1999. But another stiff dose of reform is still needed

DP1: It is said that nearly 25 years ago, Germany was called the sick man of the euro. A combination of reunification, a rigid job market, and a slowdown in export demand had plagued the German economy, with unemployment reaching double digits. Then the series of reforms in the early 2000s ushered in a golden age. Germany became the envy of its peers. What kind of reforms were applied in Germany?
DP2: Germany will experience slower growth than the US, UK, France, and Spain over the next five years. Why is that? What are the causes of this issue?DP3: It is said that 20 years ago, Germany achieved remarkable change and extraordinary effectiveness. Now is the time to revisit the health farm.
What kind of policy should be applied to do it?

 Can computing clean up its act?

Can computing clean up its act?

Science and technology | Mean and green
Can computing clean up its act?
The industry consumes as much electricity as Britain—and rising.
 
DP1: It is said that over the past decade, demand for HPC (high-performance computing) has skyrocketed with technologies such as machine learning, genome decoding, and simulations of everything from stock markets and nuclear weapons to weather, and computing more generally, is becoming energy intensive. What three major areas is the industry focusing to increase the efficiency of its products?
DP2: In the mid-2000s, however, the effect of Moore's law breaks down due to the tricky physics of ultra-small components. Computers are becoming more efficient as components get smaller, but the speed at which they do so is slowing dramatically. What is the best strategy to deal with this issue?
DP3: It is said that making energy efficient is the top priority. What is the best solution to reach this goal?

AI is setting off a great scramble for data.

AI is setting off a great scramble for data

 Business | Digging for digits.
AI is setting off a great scramble for data.
Feeding ever-larger models requires makers to get creative.
 
DP1: It is said that "generative" AI relies on massive amounts of data. AI companies, which in many cases have used large portions of the Internet without permission, are now seeking new sources of data to sustain this frenzy. Meanwhile, companies with vast amounts of data are examining the best ways to profit from the data. What is each strategy to reach each goal?
DP2: What are two essential elements of an AI model? What is each issue? What is each solution to deal with each issue?

The battle between American workers and technology heats up

The battle between American workers and technology heats up

Business | Schumpeter
The battle between American workers and technology heats up.
The flashpoints are AI and electric vehicles.
 
DP1: New technologies bring about a better life only if they create jobs and if rival forces, such as labor unions, shape them. Do you support this opinion?
DP2: It is said that the United Auto Workers (UAW) and the Big Three can find ways to ensure that the switch to EVs does not lead to widespread job losses. In what ways are they? Do you support this opinion?
DP3: How can the winds of creative destruction only be held back for so long? It is said that for unions to protect the livelihoods of their members, they need to work with innovation rather than against it. What do you think the best strategy is to deal with this issue?

Having shaken off nationalism, Europe risks civilizationalism

Having shaken off nationalism, Europe risks civilisationalism

 Europe | Charlemagne
Having shaken off nationalism, Europe risks civilizationalism
A new book decries the continent’s subtler form of chauvinism.
 
DP1: It is said that many non-whites were born in Europe and are citizens of the European Union, whatever their ethnicity. However, the term "European" can also be used to refer to being white. Why is that?
DP2: It is said that there has been a tendency to think of Europe in terms of civilization, an idea rooted not only in laws and institutions but also in history, culture, and identity. Why is that?
DP3: It is said that the more politicians talk about today's Europeans being the product of a civilization that goes back thousands of years, the less minorities feel they belong to this particular "way of life. More broadly, the integration of the European continent in recent decades has created a major blind spot. What is that? What is the best solution to deal with this issue?
DP4: It is said that all over the world, rich white nations had to contend with their foundational sins. What are these? What is the best solution to deal with this issue?
DP5: It is said that each European country deals with racial issues individually. The collective body of Europe is torn apart by the different histories of its member states regarding colonialism and immigration and is confused on this issue. Why is that? What is the best solution to deal with this issue?

The BRICS bloc is riven with tensions.

The BRICS bloc is riven with tensions

International | Is a bigger party a better one?
The BRICS bloc is riven with tensions.
China’s plan to expand the club reveals the contradictions at its core.

DP1: Some analysts feared that the BRICS would soon rival the G7, but the BRICS soon lost momentum. Non-Asian BRICS economies stagnated in the 2010s. Why is that?
DP2: It is said that the "Big Bloc" will be a challenge for the West. But it is not a mortal threat. Why is that?
DP3: It is said that China's efforts to expand the BRICS reveal its tensions and contradictions. What are these?
DP4: It is said that India sees itself as a rival to China for leadership in the global south. As chair of this year's G20, it has amplified developing countries' concerns about climate finance and international institutions. It will want to avoid playing second fiddle to China, which is trying to court the same group. What is the best strategy to deal with this issue?
DP5: It is said that the Global South is just as transactional as the West in its claim to moral superiority and more divisive. Why is that?

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1. 2023/08/12(Sat) 10 PM-12 AM_ Japan Time_ Topics
2. 2023/08/13(Sun) 9AM-11AM_ Japan Time_ Topics

①Joe Biden’s China strategy is not working.
②Authoritarians are on the march.
③ Western values are steadily diverging from the rest of the world’s
④ If it can be designed on a computer, it can be built by robots.
⑤ Britain doubles down on the life-sciences industry
⑥ The Baltic is delighted to be a NATO lake.

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Joe Biden’s China strategy is not working.

Joe Biden’s China strategy is not working

Leaders | Costly and dangerous
Joe Biden’s China strategy is not working.
Supply chains are becoming more tangled and opaque.
 
DP1: It is said that for decades, the United States has applauded the globalization of trade and capital, which has brought enormous benefits in the form of increased efficiency and reduced costs to consumers. But in a dangerous world, efficiency alone is no longer enough. What is the best strategy to deal with this issue?
DP2: It is said that protecting national security by restricting access to cutting-edge technologies that could strengthen China's military power brings neither resilience nor safety. Why is that?
DP3: It is said that the free market is simply adapting to find the cheapest way to supply goods to consumers. And in many cases, China, with its vast labor force and efficient logistics, remains the cheapest supplier. The new U.S. rules have the power to redirect their own trade with China. However, they cannot eliminate Chinese influence from the entire supply chain.
Do you support this opinion?
DP4: It is said that U.S. officials say they want to be precise about how to protect China using "small yards and tall fences." But without a clear recognition of the tradeoffs between tariffs and regulations, security concerns risk making the garden bigger and the fence higher. The fact that so far, the benefits have been illusory and the costs greater than expected.
What is the best strategy to deal with this issue?

Authoritarians are on the march.

Authoritarians are on the march

 Leaders | Value judgments
Authoritarians are on the march.
They argue that universal values are the new imperialism, imposed on people who want security and stability instead. Here is why they are wrong.
 
DP1: It is said that the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989 raised hopes that increased prosperity would foster freedom and tolerance, which in turn would create further prosperity. Unfortunately, those hopes were dashed.
Why is that?
DP2: It is said that in the 30 years to 2019, global output has more than quadrupled. Of the 2 billion people living in extreme poverty, roughly 70% have escaped poverty. However individual freedom and tolerance evolved differently. How are these evolved differently?
DP3: It is said that universal values are more valuable than ever. people want security. while tradition and organized religion provide comfort, the study shows that a sense of threat drives people to seek refuge in family and racial and national groups. Do you support this opinion?
DP4: It is said that the attempts to establish American democracy in Iraq and Afghanistan have failed. Why is that?
DP5: It is said that cynical politicians sometimes foment unrest because they know that fearful people yearn for strong rule. after the economic collapse and shocking reforms of the 1990s, Russians prospered in the 2000s. between 1999 and 2013, per capita GDP increased 12-fold in dollar terms. But that still did not dispel the accumulated fear.  Do you believe that this culminated in the disastrous invasion of Ukraine?
DP6: It is said that the World Values Survey provides examples where greater security has led to greater tolerance and individual expression. The real question is how to make people feel safer. Do you support this opinion?
DP7: It is said that China's answer to the people‘s feeling of safety is based on creating order for a loyal and obedient majority that does not engage in politics or defy the rulers. However, there are deep concerns lurking in this model. What are these?
DP8: It is said that better answers to the people‘s feeling of safety come from prosperity built on the rule of law. Why is that?
DP9: What are the most profound solutions to insecurity?
DP10: It is said that universal values are more than Western piety. They are a mechanism to protect societies from insecurity. What the World Values Survey shows is that universal values are also hard-won. Do you support this opinion?

Western values are steadily diverging from the rest of the world’s

Western values are steadily diverging from the rest of the world’s

 International | Thinking for themselves.
Western values are steadily diverging from the rest of the world’s.
People’s principles were expected to align as countries got richer. What happened?
 
DP1: It is said that in 1981, more than 40% of the world's population lived in extreme poverty. 40 years later, only 8% of the world's population lives in extreme poverty, and by some measures, more than half count as middle class. But the latest findings, from 2017-22, only partially support the idea that basic values tend to converge as people get richer. In important ways, the differences in how people think seem to widen in different parts of the world. Why is that?
DP2: It is said that at the root of people's thinking and values is security, or more precisely, insecurity. In an unstable world where children and crops can be wiped out overnight by disease or drought, family is often the only defense against disaster, and churches, mosques, and temples are the main providers of comfort and explanation. As wealth spreads, however, basic insecurity recedes. In a more stable environment, people think more for themselves. this process occurs in two different ways. What are these?
DP3: It is said that just as distrust of strangers is a measure of collective values, so is unwillingness to sign petitions. This is because, in clannish societies, people tend not to believe that the governing authorities will act in their interests and fear retaliation. Do you support this opinion?
DP4: It is said that at a broad level, values and politics are clearly closely linked. Traditional values are strongly associated with dictatorships, and the one-person, one-vote system embodies individualistic values. It is perhaps no coincidence that authoritarian populists have been particularly successful in the past decade in two regions where there has been a slowing or reversal of secular and rational values. What are the two regions?
DP5: It is said that A similar point can be made about values and geopolitics. International conflicts over values are spreading not a day goes by without clashes between Western and non-Western governments. What do you think the best solution is to deal with this issue?
DP6: It is said that secular, liberal values are no more universal than religious, authoritarian values. These two values are at opposite ends of the same opinion spectrum, and both are ways for people to adapt to situations, whether safe or unstable. However, it is not entirely dependent on a country's history or political culture. Do you support this opinion?
DP7: It is said that as a rule of thumb, as prosperity spreads, life expectancy increases, fertility declines and education expands, people tend toward the secular and rational. There is a shift in thinking from a "prevention focus" (people's primary concern is to prevent harm or loss to themselves and their families) to what is called a "promotion focus" (people want freedom of self-expression and choice about how they live). Do you support this opinion?
DP8: It is said that the impact of increased security on people's values is not going away. Religious and authoritarian values are gradually losing their appeal, while secular and liberal values tend to increase their appeal. The battle over values is then waged between these two extremes. Which value shall be occupied in the world in the future?

If it can be designed on a computer, it can be built by robots.

If it can be designed on a computer, it can be built by robots

 Science and technology | Advanced Manufacturing
If it can be designed on a computer, it can be built by robots.
Powerful new software rewrites the rule of mass production.
 
DP1: It is said that thirty years from now, we will be laughing at our generation of people assembling products by hand. Why is that?
DP2: It is said that Semiconductor chips are designed using software that links directly to the automated hardware that manufactures them. For the Fort Mill plant and other companies that are beginning to adopt such software-defined manufacturing systems, it promises to transform the plant of the future by allowing more sophisticated products to be designed and put into production more quickly. All of this promises significant cost savings. Do you support this opinion?
DP3: It is said that a design that works well in a digital simulation is likely to "work" on the production line. Why is that? Do you support this assumption?
DP4: It is said that software-defined manufacturing also impacts the major trade and political challenges that companies face. What are these challenges?  What is the best solution to deal with this issue?
DP5: It is said that not only the machine tools and processes in the factory, but the factory itself is coming under the control of software. With software, designers can create entire factory layouts and simulate the manufacture of new products in a virtual environment called a digital twin. Why is that? Do you support this assumption?
DP6: It is said that If the future of manufacturing is to follow semiconductors, there is still a long way to go. Manufacturing mechanical objects is not the same as etching elaborate circuits with no moving parts. First of all, things are much less standardized, and components have many different end uses. What is the best strategy to deal with this issue?
DP7: It is said that Product performance and precision may reach levels that are unattainable with human manual production. Two-dimensional layouts of factory floors to accommodate human workers will be a thing of the past. Factories designed by software will be denser, more complex three-dimensional places, filled with clusters of highly productive, highly automated machines. these factories of the future may become almost deserted places, managed by a handful of engineers. However, the software will manage the complex production process, making it easier for those who develop and design new products. Do you support this system in the Future Factories?

Britain doubles down on the life-sciences industry

Britain doubles down on the life-sciences industry

Britain | Life sciences
Britain doubles down on the life-sciences industry
The government vows to clear hurdles so the sector can flourish. Will it be enough?

DP1: It is said that the UK enjoys a clear advantage and should be able to prosper. About one-third of all European startups specializing in life sciences are in the UK. What are three major reasons for that?
DP2: It is said that there is a second hurdle that prevents British startups. startups face at least three major challenges. What are these? What is the best strategy to deal with each issue?
DP3: It is said that startups are often eager to be acquired by larger companies. Why is that?
DP4: It is said that UK buyers themselves might also grow by acquiring small fry companies. But this is not what Snack has in mind when he talks about building a major power in the life sciences sector. One measure of success in the future will be how many companies can grow without being forced to sell. What is the best strategy to deal with these measures?

The Baltic is delighted to be a NATO lake.

The Baltic is delighted to be a NATO lake

Europe | Charlemagne
The Baltic is delighted to be a NATO lake.
It is rich, happy and dynamic, particularly on its post-communist eastern shores.
 
DP1: It is said that during the Cold War, the Western Alliance was hopelessly outnumbered in the Baltic Sea region. Why is that?
DP2: It is said that everything changed when the Berlin Wall fell: in 1990, East Germany ceased to exist. Long the dominant power in the Baltic region, Russia now occupies only one-tenth of the 8,000 km of Baltic coastline. In reality, the Baltic Sea is now as much a pocket for the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) as the Mediterranean Sea was for ancient Rome. Why was the dominant power in the Baltic region changed dramatically?
DP3: It is said that Russian leader and history buff Vladimir Putin should have read a few more history books. This is not the first time that Russian aggression in Ukraine and the Black Sea has bounced back in the Baltic. What happened past?
DP4: Why so much interest in the cold, rugged inland sea?
DP5: What are the historical events to had given Russia the dominant power in the Baltic region?
DP6: It is said that unless there is a nuclear war, this is unlikely to happen anytime soon. Except for Russia, the Baltic Sea is now not only strongly peaceful, but also prosperous, happy (Denmark and Finland have long topped global indices of life satisfaction), and vibrant, especially on the post-communist eastern coast. Do you believe that this situation shall be continued in the future?

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1. 2023/08/05(Sat) 10 PM-12 AM_ Japan Time_ Topics
2. 2023/08/06(Sun) 9AM-11AM_ Japan Time_ Topics

① How to run a business in a dangerous and disorderly world
②Lawrence Summers, Philip Zelikow, and Robert Zoellick on why Russian reserves should be used to help Ukraine
③ The high-tech race to improve weather forecasting.
④ Next-generation Googles run a tighter ship.

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How to run a business in a dangerous and disorderly world

How to run a business in a dangerous and disorderly world

 Leaders | The overstretched CEO
How to run a business in a dangerous and disorderly world
Bosses are being pulled in all directions by tough new rules of the game. How should they respond?
 
DP1: It is said that the world is becoming a dangerous and chaotic place as governments seek to manipulate corporate behavior. Global corporations and their bosses are being pulled in every direction. Everyone from bankers to beer brewers is caught up in America's toxic culture wars. What is the best strategy to deal with this issue?
DP2: What is the tacit understanding between government and business that has been dominant in the US and much of the West since the 1970s?
DP3: It is said that the re-entry of corporations into politics began in the run-up to the Trump era. By taking a stand on social issues, the bosses believed they could demonstrate their aversion to populism and their own virtues to employees and customers. It was during this time that Larry Fink of BlackRock, America's largest asset manager, became an advocate of investing using environmental, social, and governance (ESG) principles,
but instead of solving social problems, it only deepened the conflict.
Do you support this opinion?
DP4: It is said that Governments seem to be everywhere at once. They are trying to correct the problems of globalization by bringing back manufacturing jobs. They want to strengthen national security by protecting critical technologies. And they seek to combat climate change by accelerating decarbonization. each objective has its own value. However, the means to achieve them may be flawed or involve trade-offs.
What is the best solution to deal with this issue?
DP5: It is said that it would not be a bad thing when governments seem to lack advocates in favor of either efficiency or openness. What does it mean?

Lawrence Summers, Philip Zelikow, and Robert Zoellick on why Russian reserves should be used to help Ukraine

Lawrence Summers, Philip Zelikow and Robert Zoellick on why Russian reserves should be used to help Ukraine

By Invitation | Ukraine, Russia and reparations
Lawrence Summers, Philip Zelikow, and Robert Zoellick on why Russian reserves should be used to help Ukraine
Doing so would strengthen, not undermine, international law, they argue
 
DP1: It is said that we know that as the war in Ukraine drags on, the outcome may be determined not only by the battlefield but also by the balance of hope and despair. The Ukrainian economy is in intensive care. But we face a unique situation. When Russia launched the largest act of international aggression since World War II, at least $300 billion worth of dollars, euros, pounds, and yen were left to the legal powers opposing this aggression. What is the best solution to deal with this money?
DP2: It is said that public international law has always combined "black letter" laws with customs established in the process of adapting state practices to new challenges. Now that international law is facing its toughest test since the creation of the UN, states can sit on their hands and be puzzled while Ukraine burns. Or they can strengthen international law. How can we strengthen the international law?
DP3: It is said that the international law on state countermeasures is different from laws or EU directives governing "sanctions. Countermeasures have long been recognized as an extrajudicial self-help measure of states. "Traditionally, the term 'retaliatory measures' has been used to cover otherwise unlawful acts, including coercive actions taken through self-help efforts to address violations." Currently, international lawyers use the term "countermeasures" for nonviolent retaliatory actions, and the law limits collective countermeasures to the most serious cases. Do you support this retaliatory measure?
DP4: It is said that as one such countermeasure, the countries involved proposed to transfer frozen Russian assets into escrow, giving Ukraine hope of rebuilding, possibly helping those hurt by Russian aggression, and supporting future reconciliation. This countermeasure would induce Russia to fulfill its legal obligation to compensate the victims of its aggression, whether voluntarily or involuntarily. Do you support this countermeasure?
DP5: It is said that state assets are normally protected from transfer or seizure under the principle of sovereign immunity. However, this principle applies to foreign court judgments. In contrast to private assets, state assets are protected from other sovereignty only by customary obligations of mutual consideration (or bilateral investment treaties). In the case of international state action, court action is unnecessary or quite limited.
normally, Russia may demand repayment of its lost assets. In this case, Russia has committed a serious violation of an inviolable norm of international law, and its obligations can be legally suspended.
Do you support this assumption?
DP6: It is said that if the Court does not temper its dogmatic logic with a little practical wisdom, it risks turning the Constitutional Bill of Rights into a suicide pact. at this moment in history, those who seek to protect the rule of law should not take a position that cuts out its heart. What does it mean? What is the best solution to deal with this issue?
DP7: Which one do you prefer? Control by the power or the law?

The high-tech race to improve weather forecasting.

The high-tech race to improve weather forecasting

 Science and technology | Taming the chaos.
The high-tech race to improve weather forecasting.
Private companies—and AI—are transforming the weather business.
 
DP1: It is said that no matter how powerful computers become, there are limits to how far ahead numerical forecasts can be. The atmosphere is what mathematicians call a "chaotic system," exquisitely sensitive to its starting conditions. The first slight change in temperature or pressure can compound over many days to produce dramatically different weather conditions. Because perfectly accurate measurements are impossible, this is a problem that no amount of computational power can solve. What is the best solution to deal with this issue?
DP2: It is said that the American computer company IBM acquired the Weather Company, which specializes in combining various government models, for an estimated $2 billion. Within a year, the company began selling "hyperlocal" forecasts to businesses, designed to predict weather in a small area two to 12 hours ahead. By 2020, IBM was the world's largest weather forecast provider. What is the key success point of IBM to be the world's largest weather forecast provider?
DP3: It is said that using AI to find repeating patterns can produce useful forecasts even before the underlying science is fully understood. How does it work?
DP4: It is said that AI will not replace numerical forecasting. In many parts of the world, reliable data from weather stations are lacking, so old-fashioned numerical simulations must be used retrospectively to fill the gap. And just as computational approaches face fundamental limitations in their usefulness, so do AI approaches. In a world where the weather is fundamentally changing due to climate change, history is not a reliable guide to the future. What is the best strategy to deal with this issue?
DP5: By 2030, the European Commission hopes to have completed Destination Earth, a simulation that can handle both short-term weather patterns and long-term climate change. with the help of AI, it will be possible to determine how animal migration patterns change as temperatures rise, or what happens to fish stocks as the oceans warm. They hope that users will be able to visualize what will happen to fish stocks as the ocean warms. Do you believe that this simulation is available on time?
DP6: It is said that in the past, it took a lot of expertise to turn observations into something useful like a forecast. As such, it was the domain of a handful of large institutions. But recent technological advances, especially AI, have made it easier and cheaper. That's what's making (weather) data so valuable," And that's going to change everything." Do you support this opinion?

Next-generation Googles run a tighter ship.

Next-generation Googles run a tighter ship

 Business | Lean innovation
Next-generation Googles run a tighter ship.
Like their big-tech role models, startups embrace efficiency.
 
DP1: It is said that efficiency is a hot topic in Silicon Valley. Companies accustomed to spending wildly to gain market share are now in the unenviable position of having to trim the fat. And there is plenty of fat to trim. What are these?
DP2: It is said that most startups can operate with small teams and the impact on revenue is negligible. Tech companies are embracing artificial intelligence (AI), of course. The AI "co-pilot" of GitHub, a Microsoft-owned platform for open-source programs, has increased coder productivity by 30%. Do you support this opinion?
DP3: It is said that companies that develop all the AI tools required. founded by a defector from Openai, which developed Chatgpt, Anthropic has 160 employees and has secured $1.2 billion. A few years ago, Klarna, a fast-growing Swedish payments company, had 2,700 employees when it raised $1.2 billion. Database maker Databricks had 1,700 employees at a similar stage. Do you believe using AI tools will save the cost of employing 10 times the workforce?

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1. 2023/07/29(Sat) 10 PM-12 AM_ Japan Time_ Topics
2. 2023/07/30(Sun) 9AM-11AM_ Japan Time_ Topics

①Should Ukraine get Russia’s frozen reserves?
② Why the EU will not seize Russian state assets to rebuild Ukraine.
③Are the current heat waves evidence that climate change is speeding up?
④ Your employer is (probably) unprepared for artificial intelligence.
⑤A spat in Brussels pits an open vision of Europe against an insular one.
⑥ What if China and India became friends?

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Should Ukraine get Russia’s frozen reserves?

Should Ukraine get Russia’s frozen reserves?

 Leaders | Sanctions and reparations
Should Ukraine get Russia’s frozen reserves?
How to make Russia pay for the war while upholding international law

DP1: It is said that since the February 2022 attack on Ukraine, Western governments have shown a crackdown on Russian private assets held abroad, as a result of the sanctions, some $300 billion in Russian central bank assets have been frozen in Western accounts. Given the devastation that Russia has inflicted on its neighbors, the idea of using this pot to help Ukraine compensate and rebuild naturally arises. Do you believe that it is possible?DP2: It is said that for Ukrainians and their supporters, this war is not only about defending one country against an aggressor but also about defending the post-1945 world order that underpins the world's economy and security. regardless of how the West treats Russia's frozen assets, it will set a precedent that will shape world behavior for decades to come.
What are the ideal procedures to deal with the frozen assets to help Ukraine compensate and rebuild naturally arises.?
DP3: It is said that national assets are protected from seizure under international law and, in general, under domestic law. There are exceptions to this principle of sovereign immunity, but lawyers have advised the US and EU that it may not apply in the case of Russia. A vote in the UN Security Council could be a clear legal basis for asset seizures, but Russia has a veto. Reparations could be part of a peace deal, but it would require agreement from both sides. Do you believe that party can have a mutual agreement about this issue? What are the three steps to make it available?
DP4: It is said that it is essential to lay the groundwork for a future reparations process. The arbiter of Ukraine's reparations claim could be the International Court of Justice (ICJ) or a UN reparations commission such as the one established by the Security Council after Iraq's 1990 invasion of Kuwait. To justify its aggression, Russia claims that Ukraine is committing genocide against Russian-speaking people in the east of the country. Ukraine wisely asked the International Court of Justice (ICJ) to rule on the matter, but the ruling was clear. What should we do to make future reparations process available?
DP5: It is said that it would be easier to seize all frozen Russian assets. It is far better to take legal steps that guarantee Ukraine a stream of income, secure priority of claims to Russian reserves, and raise its already strong reparations claims. It is possible to help Ukraine, make Russia pay reparations, and uphold international law. Do you support this opinion?
If international law is rendered inoperative by Russia's threat to use nuclear weapons, what should we do for a future reparations process?

Why the EU will not seize Russian state assets to rebuild Ukraine.

Why the EU will not seize Russian state assets to rebuild Ukraine

Europe | Come and take them.
Why the EU will not seize Russian state assets to rebuild Ukraine.
It fears the precedent of undermining state immunity under international law.

DP1: It is said that more than €225 billion ($225 billion) in Russian central bank assets are frozen in the European Union alone. Politicians in countries in the eastern part of the European Union, not to mention Ukraine, want to use the money to pay for the damage caused by Russia's aggression. The problem is that under international law there is no clear way to seize these assets without a UN Security Council vote, an International Court of Justice (ICJ) ruling, or a postwar settlement. All of these require Russia's consent.
What is the best solution to deal with this issue?
DP2: It is said that the Unilateral seizure of Russian assets is a clear violation of international law. A state is immune from the legal jurisdiction of another state and cannot have its property expropriated to settle its debts. Under international law, sanctions against Russia are permissible only as a means to force Russia to act differently. Merely confiscating assets would go beyond what is permitted under international rules. Do you agree with this opinion?
DP3: It is said that For Ukrainians and others outraged by Russian atrocities, a tax on private profits from Kremlin assets may seem too little. But for the European Union, it is the best it can do. Why is that?

Are the current heat waves evidence that climate change is speeding up?

Are heatwaves evidence that climate change is speeding up?

 Science and technology | Turning up the heat.
Are the current heat waves evidence that climate change is speeding up?
All sorts of records are being broken in all sorts of places.

DP1: It is said that two-thirds of the Earth's land mass is in the Northern Hemisphere, and since land heats up faster than water, summer in the Northern Hemisphere is the hottest time of year for the entire planet. The highest temperatures, however, tend to be later in the season. It is unprecedented for this year to start so early, rise so high, and last so long.
the same is true of what is happening in the oceans. Do you believe that it may have something to do with the accumulation of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere?
DP2: It is said that there are also natural variations in climate, the most famous of which is the El Niño Southern Oscillation (Enso), which has spurred warming. Enso is the back-and-forth between winds and currents in the tropical Pacific Ocean that causes seawater to suck up more heat or release more heat. Do you support this assumption?
DP3: Is a thicker atmospheric blanket, heat leaking from the Pacific, and random effects of annual variations enough to explain the unusual temperatures this summer? Or is something more going on than that?
DP4: It is said that the eruption of Hunga did not release such large amounts of sulfur into the stratosphere. However, it did release large amounts of water vapor. Water vapor is a potent greenhouse gas. In the lower atmosphere, it quickly condenses into rain and snow. In the stratosphere, however, water vapor stays longer. The Hunga eruption is thought to have increased stratospheric water vapor by 13%. If the Hunga eruption plays a role, though, it is one that is already waning. Do you support this assumption?
DP5: It is said that when the ice age ends, atmospheric methane concentrations rise sharply, ushering in a warmer climate known as the "interglacial period." Some scientists cite the recent increase in methane concentrations as evidence that something similar may be underway today.
Do you support this assumption?
DP6: It is said that Methane concentrations rose throughout the 20th century, largely due to increases in fossil fuels and agriculture; they leveled off in the early 21st century, but are now increasing more rapidly than ever before, part of this is undoubtedly due to agriculture and fossil fuels. Do you support this assumption?
DP7: It is said that the excess methane gas may be caused by gases produced by decaying plants in tropical wetlands. This is one candidate mechanism for the surge of methane gas seen at the end of the last ice age. If this is true, it is possible that a feedback loop similar to that which occurred in the past is still in place today. More methane means more warming, more wetlands mean more methane. Do you support this assumption?
DP8: It is said that a more plausible cause of global warming is a decrease in sulfur emissions. The combustion of coal and heavy oil produces large amounts of sulfur dioxide. When this gas enters the atmosphere, it forms sulfate particles. These particles contribute to air pollution and cause hundreds of thousands of deaths yearly. Environmental regulators have been trying to reduce sulfur emissions for decades, however, sulfate particles in the lower atmosphere reflect sunlight in the same way that they are produced in the stratosphere after volcanic eruptions. Also, unlike particles in the stratosphere, which is usually bone dry, particles in the lower layers create clouds, reflecting sunlight further. Regulations against pollution mean that this climate-cooling side effect is weakening. Do you support this assumption?
DP9: we might try to find ways to maintain the cooling properties of sulfates without adversely affecting air quality or health, this might be accomplished by continuously injecting small amounts of sulfur directly into the stratosphere. Because there is no rain to wash away the sulfur particles, sulfur particles flying high in the stratosphere would last much longer than those in the lower atmosphere. adding a few million tons of sulfur dioxide to the stratosphere is technically feasible and could have the same cooling effect as the 100 million or so tons that humans dump into the lower atmosphere each year. This idea is a form of "solar-terrestrial engineering."
Do you support this solution to prevent global warming? What are the biggest concerns about applying this solution?
DP10: It is said that if we are diligent, we may be able to end warming by the end of this century. But we cannot cool it down in the meantime. If the world wants it, solar-terrestrial engineering is the only thing that can make it possible. Do you support this opinion?

Your employer is (probably) unprepared for artificial intelligence.

Your employer is (probably) unprepared for artificial intelligence

Finance and economics | Machine dreams
Your employer is (probably) unprepared for artificial intelligence.
That is bad news for your earnings—and the broader economy.

DP1: It is said that speculation about the impact of AI on jobs, productivity, and quality of life is at a fever pitch. Technology is awe-inspiring. But unless millions of businesses outside of high-tech centers like Silicon Valley adopt ai, ai's economic impact will be limited. the diffusion of technological improvements is as important to long-term growth as innovation.
Do you support this opinion?
DP2: It is said that Japan is unusually innovative, obtaining more patents per capita per year than any other country except Korea. Japanese researchers can take credit for inventions in GR codes, lithium-ion batteries, and 3D printing. But the country is poor at spreading new technologies throughout its economy. What is the best solution to deal with this issue?
DP3: It is said that France's track record of innovation is average, but it excels at disseminating knowledge: the French government has been very successful in promoting innovation. France is also adept at spreading new technologies from the capital to the periphery. Today, the productivity gap between France's top-tier and mid-tier firms is less than half that of the United Kingdom. Why is France good at disseminating knowledge?
DP4: It is said that since the mid-2000s, the world has been changing to a Japanese model. Indeed, consumers are adopting technology faster than ever. By one estimate, social media app TikTok went from zero to 100 million users in a year. But companies are becoming increasingly cautious. In the past two decades, many mind-blowing innovations have hit the market. only 1.6% of U.S. companies will have adopted machine learning by 2020. Only 6.7% of U.S. manufacturing companies use 3D printers. Only 25% of business workflows use the cloud, a figure that has not changed in half a century. Why are companies becoming increasingly cautious to adopt new technology?
DP5: It is said that Governments are often the worst offenders, sticking to paper forms, Bureaucrats around the world spend $6 billion a year on paper and print, about the same amount in real terms as in the mid-1990s. What is the best solution to deal with this issue?
DP6: It is said that U.S. companies are ranked by return on invested capital and found that the 75th percentile was 20 percentage points higher than the median in 2017, twice as high as in 2000. While some firms reap enormous profits from the purchase of new technologies, many others do not profit at all. Most of the increase in inequality across the workforce is due to the widening gap in average wages between firms. Do you agree with this opinion? What factors distinguish the company to accept new technology or not?
DP7: It is said that the "great inventions" of the 19th and 20th centuries had a much more significant impact on productivity than more recent inventions. The problem is that as technological progress becomes incremental, diffusion also slows.  Why is that?
DP8: It is said that innovation occurs slowly in industries that are run or largely controlled by the government. in the centrally planned Soviet Union, technological innovation was the best in the world, but diffusion was nonexistent, as one can see by recalling Sputnik. The lack of competitive pressure blunted incentives for improvement. Politicians often set public policy goals inconsistent with efficiency, such as maximizing employment. Such sectors, including construction, education, health care, and utilities, account for a quarter of U.S. GDP. What is the best strategy to deal with this issue?
DP9: It is said that about 40% of companies in the US are not interested in ai tools. The technology is revolutionary, no doubt. Why are businesses not ready to embrace the revolution?

A spat in Brussels pits an open vision of Europe against an insular one.

A spat in Brussels pits an open vision of Europe against an insular one

Europe | Charlemagne
A spat in Brussels pits an open vision of Europe against an insular one.
The sorry saga of Fiona Scott Morton

DP1: It is said that a successful French campaign to change the way the EU thinks. Views from Paris, traditionally skeptical of globalization and overly free markets, were previously balanced by more liberal voices. Part of the EU organization in Brussels functioned as a kind of liberal deep state, with the support of smaller countries in Northern and Central Europe (not to mention the United Kingdom in the past). Today, the French view clearly prevails. Why is that?
DP2: It is said that the European economy is becoming increasingly nationalistic, i.e., Frenchist. The idea of industrial policy used to be taboo in Brussels. Now the need for it is recognized. Governments have recently showered formerly forbidden subsidies on favored companies. Why is that?
DP3: It is said that Europe will not soon fall into a planned economy. But a continent that lacks economic dynamism needs all the policymaking advice it can get. That may sometimes mean importation. What is the best solution to deal with this issue?

What if China and India became friends?

What if China and India became friends?

 International | Asia’s biggest beasts
What if China and India became friends?
Setting aside their border dispute could transform their relationship—and geopolitics.

DP1: It is said that nearly a century later, disdain for India still swirls among Chinese officials and scholars. The data speak for themselves, they say: at independence in 1947, India's per capita GDP was higher than China's (in purchasing power terms). But by the early 1990s, China had surpassed it on many other measures; by 2022, the two countries had roughly the same population, but China's economy was more than three times larger. What is the cause of the economic differences between Chain and India?
DP2: It is said that the fundamentals of the China-India relationship, both militarily and economically, are changing, forcing the world's largest democracy and the world's largest dictatorship to rethink how they interact with each other and with the rest of the world. There is hope among U.S. and allied officials that India's continued frontier friction with China may be irreversibly pushed into a coalition of democracies that seeks to curb Chinese power. The question is what if they find a way to shelve the border dispute? What is the best solution to deal with this issue?
DP3: It is said that for most of China and India's modern history, trade between the two countries has been negligible. By 2020, however, merchandise trade had surged to $88 billion, with China enjoying a surplus of $46 billion, making it India's largest trading partner. China has also been a major source of investment, especially in technology, real estate, and infrastructure. How does the change in economic impact between China and India influence on the political relationship?
DP4: It is said that the 2020 border skirmishes put all of that at risk. India banned about 320 Chinese apps, launched tax investigations into several Chinese companies, and introduced new rules requiring Indian government approval for Chinese investment. Indian officials say they have since rejected 157 related applications. Nonetheless, bilateral merchandise trade increased by 43% in 2021 and 8.6% last year. Do you believe that the economic relationship is more important to keep a peaceful relationship between China and India?
DP5: It is said that the Strong relationship between China and India may not please Americans and others who see India as a counter-axis to China. Nor is it in the mindset of Tagore in 1924 when he urged China to reject Western materialism and "liberate the human soul from the prison of the machine." But it may be a more realistic path toward a sustainable and mutually beneficial relationship between the Asian giants. What does it mean? What is the ideal relationship between China and India for the benefit of the World?

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1. 2023/07/22(Sat) 10 PM-12 AM_ Japan Time_ Topics
2. 2023/07/23(Sun) 9AM-11AM_ Japan Time_ Topics

①American trustbusters are losing their focus.
② Is big business really getting too big?
③Subsidies and protection for manufacturing will harm the world economy.
④The world is in the grip of a manufacturing delusion.
⑤Why people struggle to understand climate risk.
⑥In Asia data flows are part of a new great game

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American trustbusters are losing their focus.

American trustbusters are losing their focus

 Leaders | The big distraction
American trustbusters are losing their focus
An obsession with technology and size distracts from truly harmful market power
 
DP1: In principle, trust-buster enthusiasm is welcome since vigorous competition is essential in a free market economy. What is the role of the trustbuster?
DP2: It is said that the focus on the scale may have distracted policymakers from addressing the real barriers to competition to the detriment of consumers. Do you support this opinion?
DP3: It is said that as the Activision tragedy shows, being huge need not be a bad thing. This expansion has been primarily due to the growing economies of scale that technology provides, not due to market dominance. Do you support this opinion?
DP4: It is said that regulators' focus on scale is beginning to take its toll. What are these?
DP5: It is said that there are two principles that should guide regulators.
What are these?
DP6: It is said that the U.S. Federal Trade Commission (FTC)has more work to do, and it is time for the U.S. government to do more. What are these?

Is big business really getting too big?

Is big business really getting too big?

Business | Size wars
Is big business really getting too big?
In a few sectors, corporate concentration is a problem. In most, it needn’t be
 
DP1: It is said that governments are at war with big business: In June, U.S. President Joe Biden, representing many politicians around the world, blamed big business for greed-fueled price increases, stagnant wage growth, abandoned innovation, and weak supply chains. The Federal Trade Commission (FTC) has pursued large deals simply because of their size. Defeats in court have not dampened the agency's enthusiasm.　Do you support this opinion?
DP2: It is said that trustbusters cite three justifications for the reinvigoration that are greater market concentration, lower turnover at the world's largest companies, and exploding profits. On the surface, all three point to rising corporate power, however, these trends may be the result of milder factors such as technological advances and globalization. It is true that some large firms are collecting rents, including in large sectors such as healthcare. However, the Trustbusters' strategy of reflexively questioning transactions involving large firms is wrong. Why is that?
DP3: It is said that high concentration, low churn, and rich profits need not necessarily put consumers at a disadvantage, the increase in industrial concentration in the United States over the past 100 years has been correlated with an increase in technology intensity, an increase in fixed costs, and an increase in output growth. None of these appear to be particularly pernicious. Do you support this opinion?
DP4: It is said that Bureaucratic restrictions on land use and occupational licensing may distract attention from more pressing threats to economic dynamism. Acquisitions can be useful in preserving the value of startups when market downturns make it difficult for founders to raise capital. In other cases, large deals can benefit consumers, such as when a biotech startup joins forces with an established drugmaker to test and market a new treatment. Do you support this opinion? If so, how do you deal with the enforcement of Bureaucratic restrictions?

Subsidies and protection for manufacturing will harm the world economy.

Subsidies and protection for manufacturing will harm the world economy

 
Leaders | The manufacturing delusion
Subsidies and protection for manufacturing will harm the world economy.
Reshaping the world’s supply chains comes at a great cost.
 
DP1: It is said that under ideal conditions, the promotion of manufacturing promotes innovation and growth, in industries such as airplane manufacturing, the enormous cost of entry and the uncertainty of future demand can justify support for new firms, as Europe did for Airbus in the 1970s. Similarly, targeted support can enhance national security. Do you support this opinion?
DP2: It is said that governments that subsidize and protect manufacturing are likely to do more harm than help their own economies. Why is that?
DP3: It is said that access to critical technologies is worth paying for, especially for national security. But unless policymakers make clear the dangers of subsidies, the fenced garden will only get bigger. What does it mean?
DP4: It is said that the government is not wrong to pursue good jobs, green conversions, and national security. But if it succumbs to the manufacturing delusion, it will make its own country worse off. Do you support this opinion?

The world is in the grip of a manufacturing delusion.

The world is in the grip of a manufacturing delusion

Finance and economics | Economic policy
The world is in the grip of a manufacturing delusion.
How to waste trillions of dollars
 
DP1: It is said that the manufacturing sector's share of global economic output has fallen from 19% in 1997 to 16% today, and the decline has been most severe in the wealthy countries, those who boost manufacturing are making four arguments to reverse this trend. What are these?
DP2: in the 20th century, one could find reasonable wages, job security, some autonomy, and career advancement in a factory without a college education. In fact, just over a decade ago in the U.S., manufacturing wages were 5% higher than similar service industries, offering stable hours and generous benefits, however, many good manufacturing jobs no longer exist. Do you support this opinion?
DP3: It is said that the high-tech factories that the US and Europe are trying to attract are so highly automated that they are no longer an important source of employment for people with few qualifications. What is the best strategy to deal with unemployment of the people with few qualifications?
DP4: It is said that cutting-edge industries resemble the service sector, manufacturing-related services have accounted for an increasing share of global output in recent decades, and assembling gadgets is not where the money is generated that leads to high-paying jobs. Do you support this opinion?
DP5: It is said that designing services, responding to customer needs, and maintaining gizmos are the kinds of things that are increasingly important to modern manufacturing, and few companies offer the kind of employment that industry once did. Do you support this opinion?
DP6: It is said that even if the industrial policy were perfectly designed by a visionary government, using taxation and subsidies to shift labor to industries with the greatest economies of scale, it would only boost GDP by 1-3%. In fact, in recent decades, there has been little relationship between economic growth and the economic share of manufacturing in OECD countries. Do you support this opinion?
DP7: It is said that another reason to invest national budgets in industry, especially green industry, is that the world will need more goods to achieve net zero emissions, all capital stocks that depend on fossil fuels must be replaced, this includes airplanes, heating systems, power plants, and automobiles. What is the best strategy to deal with this issue?
DP8: It is said that politicians also expect spending to spawn new companies and industries, such as the EV-era American and Chinese startups Tesla and BYD that they have in mind, building energy-intensive factories in places where renewable energy is abundant and cheap would be a good idea. From a global perspective, however, the competition for subsidies is ultimately zero-sum. Why is that?
DP9: It is said that Governments are now keen to increase domestic production to reduce their vulnerability in the event of a disruption in foreign supplies, however, increasing self-sufficiency is likely to increase vulnerability to future shocks, rather than reduce it. Diversified supply chains, by contrast, are more resilient because they depend on the economic performance of different countries. Do you support this opinion?
DP10: If this agenda fails because the green transformation does not create jobs or economic growth as the electorate had hoped, or if subsidized production fails to meet expectations, a new generation of leaders will begin to question whether the industry is the cure for humanity's greatest disease. What is the best strategy to deal with this issue?

Why people struggle to understand climate risk.

Why people struggle to understand climate risk

 Finance and economics | Free exchange
Why do people struggle to understand climate risk
The confusion inherent in a hotter world
 
DP1: It is said that a warming world faces not only "risk" but also "uncertainty" which is described as a situation in which "there is no scientific basis for forming calculable probabilities, by contrast, risk refers to situations whose relative probabilities are well known. Do you support this opinion?
DP2: It is said that, unlike economists' models, climate models are based on physical laws that have left their mark on the earth for thousands of years, including fossils and Antarctic ice cores. With solid evidence and a clear understanding of the process by which the observations were generated, the ambiguity disappears, and the probability of potential disasters can be better understood. Do you support this assumption?
DP3: It is said that natural catastrophe reinsurance is usually based on models that incorporate the latest science, not historical statistics. The science of climate change is well understood, and data is constantly improving, so the former is generally a source of more uncertainty than the latter. Insurance premiums may be rising not because of continued ignorance, but because of improved knowledge.  Do you support this opinion?
DP4: It is said that even perfect scientific models cannot dispel all uncertainty. Climate change involves not only the clarity of physics but also the messy world of policy. Scientists may be able to model how a 2°C warmer planet than pre-industrial times would increase the risk of wildfires in a given region, but no model can predict whether policymakers will pull the levers available to prevent such fires from occurring. What is the best strategy to deal with this issue?
DP5: It is said that policies can also prevent proper calculation of risk. California regulations prohibit insurance companies from using the latest climate models to set premiums. Premiums must be set based on average payments over the past 20 years, not the latest science. Avoiding ambiguity is understandable. Sticking our heads in the sand is foolish. What is the best strategy to deal with this issue?
DP6: Do we need to create two different worlds?
the scientist governs one, and the politician governs another.
If not, how can we integrate two different worlds?

In Asia, data flows are part of a new great game

In Asia data flows are part of a new great game

 Asia | Asia’s digital geography
In Asia data flows are part of a new great game
Geopolitical tension and digital protectionism threaten to undermine a more connected region.

DP1: It is said that Geopolitical tensions, protectionist laws, and a mishmash of rules governing data threaten to impede the free flow of data.
What is the best strategy to deal with this issue?
DP2: It is said that concerns about the security of telecommunications infrastructure are as old as the submarine cables themselves, cable sabotage was a major concern leading up to World War I. What are the present risks of it? What is the best solution to deal with the risks?
DP3: It is said that the new "Apricot" cable linking Guam, Indonesia, Japan, the Philippines, Singapore, and Taiwan avoids the South China Sea. What is the goal of the new cable?
DP4: It is said that the biggest challenge may not be in building or protecting the infrastructure to move data across borders, but in creating rules to govern it. What is the expected rule to govern it?
DP5: It is said that the European Union, through its GDPR (General Data Protection Regulation) laws, places privacy at the heart of its approach. The United States puts commerce first. But it has turned away from trade agreements, making it difficult to engage with and influence Asian governments. What is the best strategy to deal with this issue?
DP6: It is said that it is not only authoritarian regimes that are committed to digital protectionism. India insists that data must be stored locally.  Why is that?
DP7: It is said that when it comes to digital policy, most governments are "picking and choosing like a Viking meal. the result is a flurry of conflicting rules. What is the best solution to deal with this issue caused by digital spaghetti?
DP8: It is said that regulating digital trade is more complex than overseeing beef or steel. Most governments lack policymakers with relevant technical expertise, and most digital issues cut across a variety of sectors beyond the traditional purview of trade negotiators, localization measures and other barriers to cross-border data flows will raise costs and hit SMEs hardest.
What is the best strategy to deal with this issue?

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1. 2023/07/15(Sat) 10 PM-12 AM_ Japan Time_ Topics
2. 2023/07/16(Sun) 9AM-11AM_ Japan Time_ Topics

①A new era of high-tech war has begun
②The real problem with Britain’s water companies
③How to understand the woeful state of Britain’s water utilities
④The world needs more battery metals. Time to mine the seabed.
⑤Deep-sea mining may soon ease the world’s battery-metal shortage.
⑥A Lego-lover’s guide to preparing for the AI age

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A new era of high-tech war has begun

A new era of high-tech war has begun

 Leaders | The future of war
A new era of high-tech war has begun
Technology has transformed the battlefield. Democracies must respond accordingly

DP1: It is said that there are three major lessons to be learned from the killing fields of Ukraine.　What are those?
DP2: It is said that Armies that do not learn the lessons of new types of industrial warfare, such as those seen in Ukraine, risk losing to armies that do learn. What are the ideal Armies in your country?
DP3: It is said that technology has transformed the battlefield. Democracies must respond accordingly. How do we respond to the battlefield through cutting-edge technology?

The real problem with Britain’s water companies

The real problem with Britain’s water companies

Leaders | Britain’s water mess
The real problem with Britain’s water companies
Blame financial blunders and timid regulation, not privatization.

DP1: It is said that in the aftermath of the water mess, consumers will pay more, not because of unscrupulous water company bosses, but because of Ofwat, the industry's weak-kneed and ill-informed regulator. Do you support this comment?
DP2: It is said that two problems with privatized water systems are often conflated. One is the vulnerability of some companies and the other is the lack of spending on infrastructure.  What are the details about these?
DP3: It is said that Ofwat limits the percentage of investment in order to keep consumer bills low. The result is that the company ends up on England's sewage-filled shores. What is the best strategy to deal with this issue?
DP4: It is said that now is the time to invest more. In any case, if the British people want cleaner water, they will have to pay the price. Private investors will demand a higher return on the money they put in. Private investors will demand a higher return on their investment, especially if the extent to which water companies can borrow is limited. Do you support this assumption?
DP5: It is said that talk of nationalization is a distraction and a waste of scarce public funds. Whether water companies are nationalized or privatized, fierce watchdogs are needed to keep order in the industry. Do you support this opinion?
DP6: It is said that elected politicians would be even more reluctant than armchair regulators to use taxpayer money for needed investments or to raise rates. Such regulators could at least take a lesson from Ofwat's failure. What is the appropriate role of government, regulators, and private companies to manage social infrastructure like water? How can we optimize the role of each party and trade each interest for the benefit of the end user of the social infrastructure?

How to understand the woeful state of Britain’s water utilities

How to understand the woeful state of Britain’s water utilities

 Britain | Privatisation in Britain
How to understand the woeful state of Britain’s water utilities
The industry’s regulator deserves much of the blame

DP1: It is said that Thames Water has enjoyed a monopoly on water supply and sewage management in the river drainage basin since it was privatized in 1989. The company's shareholders (mainly pension funds) have contributed only £500 million of the £1.5 billion the company intends to restructure. Temporary nationalization may be necessary. Why is that?
What is the major problem in managing Britain’s water utilities?
DP2: It is said that Each water company could also face huge bills for cleaning up rivers, beaches, and other bathing areas. while shareholders and CEOs enjoy large rewards, they will swim (or paddle) in sewage, which will understandably provoke widespread public outrage. Left-wing activists and politicians have called for renationalization, pointing out that the returns to investors since privatization have come not from increased efficiency but from the accumulation of debt on company balance sheets. Why are not the necessary funds shifted to the appropriate place?
DP3: It is said that there will be a cost anyway' but investments are needed to maintain water flows. Water supplies are under pressure due to climate change and population growth. The UK has not built any new reservoirs since the early 1990s and relies on temporary measures such as hosepipe bans to limit demand. There is still a lot of water lost through plumbing leaks, and the British use more water than other countries, such as the Dutch. One reason is that only 60% of water meters monitor usage.
Why is the UK social infrastructure not working? What do you think the best strategy is to deal with this issue?
DP4: Why can present capitalists not get out of the way of thinking of medieval kings or queens?

The world needs more battery metals. Time to mine the seabed.

The world needs more battery metals. Time to mine the seabed

 Leaders | Deep-sea mining
The world needs more battery metals. Time to mine the seabed
Getting nickel from the deep causes much less damage than getting it on land

DP1: It is said that burning fuel on roads to move people and goods generates about 6 billion tons of carbon dioxide in 2021, or 16% of global energy-related emissions. Because of this reason, we need to build battery-powered cars that run on electricity instead of internal combustion engines and to mine and process metals for the battery on an unprecedented scale. Do you support this opinion?
DP2: It is said that nickel is found on the seafloor in potato-sized chunks called nodules, which are bound to cobalt, copper, and manganese. How can we get these?
DP3: It is said that there are tremendous reserves of nickel, amounting to 340 million tons. The problem is that the International Seabed Authority (ISA), a division of the United Nations, has been stalled for 29 years by a fragile bureaucracy and questionable conservationists. What is the best strategy to deal with this issue?
DP4: It is said that getting nickel from the deep causes much less damage than getting it on land. Why is that?

Deep-sea mining may soon ease the world’s battery-metal shortage.

Deep-sea mining may soon ease the world’s battery-metal shortage

 Science and technology | Raiding Davy Jones’s locker
Deep-sea mining may soon ease the world’s battery-metal shortage
Taking nickel from rainforests destroys 30 times more life than getting it from the depths

DP1: It is said that the power grid is also changing as wind turbines and solar panels replace fossil fuel power plants. The International Energy Agency (IEA) predicts that in the next five years, the world will have as much electricity from renewable sources as it did in the past 20 years. Do you support this assumption?
DP2: It is said that large quantities of batteries will be needed to propel vehicles and to store energy from intermittent renewable energy power plants. The demand for the minerals used to make batteries is skyrocketing. Nickel, in particular, is in short supply. Nickel is used in the cathodes of high-quality batteries for electric vehicles to increase capacity and reduce weight. Which country is the major provider of Nickel? What is the market share of this country to provide Nickel?
DP3: It is said that The Pacific Ocean seafloor, known as the Clarion-Clipperton Zone (ccz), is dotted with trillions of potato-sized nodules of nickel, cobalt, manganese, and copper that are of interest to battery manufacturers. What is the biggest obstacle to getting Nickel from the ccz?

A Lego-lover’s guide to preparing for the AI age

A Lego-lover’s guide to preparing for the AI age

 Business | Schumpeter
A Lego-lover’s guide to preparing for the AI age
How to transform companies for the digital era, brick by pixel
 
DP1: It is said that about 90% of companies had some kind of digital strategy, but they were only able to generate less than one-third of the revenue they had anticipated. Moreover, the success rate is more varied within industries than between industries. To make it work, a second lesson needs to be learned from LEGO. What are these?
DP2: It is said that some of these lessons apply to generative AI as well, it is relatively easy to set up a pilot with a technology like Chatgpt, which is human-like. The problem is getting the AI model embedded throughout the organization in a safe and unbiased way. What kind of strategy do we need to accomplish this?
DP3: It is said that some of the company's brick enthusiasts are already using programs like Chatgpt to figure out new ways to make things. Most of the time they fail, but one day anyone may be able to make a Monet. Do you support this comment?

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1. 2023/07/08(Sat) 10 PM-12 AM_ Japan Time_ Topics
2. 2023/07/09(Sun) 9AM-11AM_ Japan Time_ Topics

①The widespread adoption of AI by companies will take a while.
②Our early adopters index examines how corporate America is deploying AI.
③How misfiring environmentalism risks harming the world’s poor.
④A new gravitational-wave detection has excited astronomers.
⑤Thousands of species of animals probably have consciousness.
⑥Used and abused by Russian rulers, Tolstoy has always resisted.

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The widespread adoption of AI by companies will take a while.

The widespread adoption of AI by companies will take a while

 Leaders | AI and productivity
The widespread adoption of AI by companies will take a while.
For the technology to make its mark on productivity, even mediocre firms will need to make the leap.

DP1: It is said that the widespread adoption of AI by companies will take a while. Why is that?
DP2: It is said that companies tend to use a patchwork of software and services, some of which are years or even decades old. Replacing outdated systems is costly and time-consuming. Why do not they replace the old system with a new one by creating a cutting-edge new platform by themself or purchasing such a platform created by the Startup company?
DP3: It is said that in many industries, such as health care, education, and construction, which are run or heavily regulated by the government, bosses and labor unions often resist the introduction of new technologies, fearing that it will lead to job losses. What is the role of the government to increase productivity in such industries by introducing cutting-edge Technology?

Our early-adopters index examines how corporate America is deploying AI.

Our early-adopters index examines how corporate America is deploying AI

 Business | ChatGPT Inc
Our early-adopters index examines how corporate America is deploying AI.
Companies of all stripes are using the technology.

DP1: It is said that Generative AI may eventually become even more common than other types of AI because it excels at many tasks that are essential to running a company, three-quarters of the value that generative AI is expected to create will come from four operations: These operations are, to some extent, the core of most large companies. What are four operations?
DP2: What are three major risks to introducing generative AI into Company?
DP3: What is the most appropriate approach to generative AI to adopt into the company?

How misfiring environmentalism risks harming the world’s poor.

How misfiring environmentalism risks harming the world’s poor

 Leaders | Hard truths about green growth
How misfiring environmentalism risks harming the world’s poor.
The trade-off between development and climate change is impossible to avoid.

DP1: It is said that many rich world leaders say that in theory, we can solve this problem by funding green development projects that reduce emissions and at the same time promote growth. That is true to some extent. But without proper carbon pricing and cross-border emissions trading, the private sector cannot be encouraged to invest voluntarily. Do you support this opinion?
DP2: It is said that the reality of limited resources exacerbates this tradeoff. The need to spend money on decarbonizing large developing countries that already provide reasonable services to their citizens threatens aid budgets such as vaccines and schooling in the poorest regions of Africa. Unlike Brazil and India, these countries will not contribute significantly to global emissions. What are the best solutions to deal with this issue?
DP3: It is said that while leaders talk a lot about sustainable growth, behind the scenes there is an epic battle over resources between those who support the development that has been taking place for the past several decades and those who sincerely want the world's foreign aid agencies to move toward decarbonization. It is a battle over which is worse: a poorer today or a hotter tomorrow. What are the best solutions to deal with this issue?
DP4: It is said that the virtue of a difficult choice: Given the moral efficacy of the argument that the rich world should foot the bill for climate change in the developing world, this is an intolerable choice. Global temperatures are determined by the amount of carbon stored in the atmosphere, not by current emissions. On a per capita basis, the rich world is disproportionately responsible for and more capable of responding to rising global temperatures. Poorer countries lack the investment to reduce emissions and the funds to adapt to climate change. However, they face the greatest costs relative to the size of their economies. What are the best solutions to deal with this issue?
DP5: It is said that politically, neither an adequate carbon price nor sufficient Western funding can be expected. With limited resources, it is essential to extract as much value as possible from what is available. The tediousness of weighing costs and benefits stems from a well-intentioned desire to avoid any and all injustice. And the consequences of that avoidance fall most heavily on those most in need. What are the best solutions to deal with this issue?

 A new gravitational wave detection has excited astronomers.

A new gravitational-wave detection has excited astronomers

 Science and technology | Ripples in the sky
A new gravitational wave detection has excited astronomers.
It could reveal giant black holes—or the beginnings of the universe.
 
DP1: It is said that A new gravitational-wave detection has excited astronomers. Why is that?
DP2: It is said that it could reveal giant black holes—or the beginnings of the universe. Why do you believe so?
DP3: It is said that Pulsars are collapsing, rotating stars that flash with metronomic regularity. If the passing gravitational waves distort the space-time between the pulsar and the earth, some pulses will arrive earlier or later than expected. By monitoring groups of pulsars, we can create interferometers with arms that are virtually interstellar in size. Do you believe this assumption?
DP4: It is said that the universe was so hot and dense that it is believed to have been opaque to electromagnetic radiation for the first 380,000 years of its existence. This means that standard telescopes (all of which rely on detecting light of various wavelengths) cannot detect traces of what happened before that time. This is not a limitation of the gravitational telescope. Do you support this assumption?

Thousands of species of animals probably have consciousness.

Thousands of species of animals probably have consciousness

 Science and technology | The easy problem is not so easy.
Thousands of species of animals probably have consciousness.
A group of scientists are trying to track down how it works in the brain.
 
DP1: It is said that thousands of species of animals probably have consciousness. Do you believe this assumption? How do we prove it?
DP2: It is said that a group of scientists are trying to track down how it works in the brain. Do you believe that they can find out how does it work in the brain?
DP3: It is well known that consciousness cannot be created simply by connecting many neurons. many researchers believe, is how the cells are connected, especially how the feedback loops between cells function. Do you believe that they can find out how does it work in the brain?
DP4: It is said that there is no shortage of theories in the field of consciousness, two theories have come to the forefront, one was Integrated Information Theory (iit) and the other was Global Neuronal Workspace Theory (gnwt). What are these about?
DP5: It is said that iit’s proponents believe that conscious activity is generated in the back part of the cerebrum, in the sensory cortex, especially the visual cortex. In contrast, gnwt's proponents believe that consciousness is generated in the anterior part of the cerebrum. This cortex includes the prefrontal cortex, which is, roughly speaking, the brain's executive center. Not only do the anterior and posterior parts of the cortex differ in their fine anatomy, but also in their work. iit's proponents argue that only the posterior part has the connective structures necessary to support the high phi required for consciousness. Proponents of gnwt, on the other hand, believe that the processing they assume is necessary for consciousness is best performed by the rows of neurons characteristic of the anterior part of the cortex. Which theory do you support?  Iit? Gnwt?
DP6: It is said that these theories may also be relevant to the question of how to design a conscious artificial intelligence (AI). it may be possible to make machines conscious using a global workspace approach. But their fear is that someone will build a self-preservation instinct into a conscious AI and that the AI will run amok as a result. Do you support this opinion?
DP7: Which one is out of control a conscious AI or human beings?
human beings are enough out of control in the viewpoint of disabling stopping war, stopping global warming, stopping racing nuclear-armed forces, and stopping spreading rich and poor in the world.

Used and abused by Russian rulers, Tolstoy has always resisted.

Used and abused by Russian rulers, Tolstoy has always resisted

 Culture | Bethink yourselves!
Used and abused by Russian rulers, Tolstoy has always resisted.
The novelist and prophet of peace is at his most urgent in a time of war.
 
DP1: It is said that "Tolstoy is making a comeback. He is now not only the outstanding author of War and Peace but also an ideologue of non-violence," declared the Russian educational project InLiberty on the occasion of the 100th anniversary of his death in 2010. Russians who saw themselves as individuals rather than subjects free from the power of the state found in his writings an ideal national identity that had yet to be realized in reality, as a 19th-century literary critic. What are the biggest obstacles for Russia to establish an ideal society? How do they overcome the obstacles
DP2: Why do we travel so far to kill complete strangers? Why are we haunted by the rage of violence and war? these pressing questions, immortalized by a writer who died more than 100 years ago, confront Russia's past, present, and future.
DP3: It is said that "War is the product of despotism. He who wants to fight war must fight despotism."　Do you support this opinion?
DP4: It is said that in 1948 Prokofiev, along with other great artists, was found guilty of "formalist perversions and anti-dramatic tendencies alien to the Soviet people." He died on March 5, 1953, the same day as Stalin. A collection of Tolstoy's writings, including his denunciation of the death penalty, was published belatedly in 1956. A few years later, when Hitler's defeat was replacing the Bolshevik Revolution as the unifying myth of the country, the authorities put Tolstoy back on the job, turning War and Peace into a major motion picture (see main image above). What does this history of Russia throw up in the minds of Russians today?
DP5: It is said that war is always present, but the enemy is not. The invasion does not come in the form of the French army, but rather from within. It is not borders that are invaded, but the boundaries of decency, the bonds of family and love. What does war mean for mankind?
DP6: It is said that During World War II, the Stalinist regime pored over War and Peace to find parallels between the struggle against the Nazis and the Russian defeat of Napoleon in 1812. On the other hand, Soviet citizens spontaneously turned to this book as a repository of national unity and courage in a country where honor and freedom were suppressed. Can they coexist in a situation where the dictator wants war, and the citizens want peace?
DP7: It is said that Stalin feared that Soviet soldiers would return from the war with new ideas of freedom, as did the victorious Russian officers in 1812. Stalin celebrated little of his victories and saw his wartime allies as his enemies. Is there any way to free Russian dictatorships from medieval governing practices based on mistrust of human beings?

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1. 2023/07/01(Sat) 10 PM-12 AM_ Japan Time_ Topics
2. 2023/07/02(Sun) 9AM-11AM_ Japan Time_ Topics

①The bigger-is-better approach to AI is running out of road
②Building Ukraine 2.0
③War is reshaping the Ukrainian state—for the better
④Rebuilding Ukraine will require money, but also tough reforms.
⑤Investors must prepare for sustained higher inflation.

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The bigger-is-better approach to AI is running out of road

The bigger-is-better approach to AI is running out of road

 Science & technology | Anything that can’t continue, won’t
The bigger-is-better approach to AI is running out of road
If AI is to keep getting better, it will have to do more with less

DP1: It is said that the "bigger is better" approach has run its course. Why is that?
DP2: It is said that we need to find ways to get higher performance with fewer resources. What are these ways?
DP3: It is said that a new AI-focused programming language called Mojo, which is based on Python Mojo was released last month. What are the features of the Mojo?

 Building Ukraine 2.0

Building Ukraine 2.0

 Leaders | The home front
Building Ukraine 2.0
For Russia’s war to fail, Ukraine must emerge prosperous, democratic, and secure

DP1: It is said that Russia may continue to occupy vast tracts of land, but if Ukraine becomes prosperous, democratic, and secure, Putin's war will have been a complete failure. By contrast, if Ukraine regains its territory, only to sink into a quagmire of corruption, poverty, and political violence, it will have abandoned the ideals for which its people fought so valiantly. Do you support this opinion?
DP2: It is said that for Ukraine to emerge from martial law, it must overcome a history of corruption and misrule that Russia has long used to undermine Ukrainians' trust in their leaders, to motivate citizens to be creative and enterprising, it must follow the rule of law. Do you believe that it is possible?
DP3: It is said that many countries have a serious interest in seeing Ukraine succeed and Russia's aggression seen as a failure, but now they are in a difficult position. Governments will not be able to raise sufficient funds. Instead, they should find a legal process by which the huge funds or so in frozen Russian state funds can be treated as compensation to Ukraine. Do you believe that it is possible?
DP4: It is said that even if Ukraine finally holds elections, there is a danger that it will revert to old, corrupt politics, that is why EU membership is so important: it creates incentives for reform and the application of law. Do you support this opinion?
DP5: It is said that ultimately, Ukraine needs to join the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). This is because NATO's Article V guarantees will show Putin and his successors that an attack on Ukraine is an attack on the entire alliance, a battle that Russia cannot win. Do you support this opinion?
DP6: It is said that Ukraine needs bilateral security guarantees and a fast-track path to NATO membership. These guarantees need to be enshrined in law, as is done between the U.S. and Israel. Do you believe that it is possible?

War is reshaping the Ukrainian state—for the better

War is reshaping the Ukrainian state—for the better

 Briefing | Ukraine 2.0
War is reshaping the Ukrainian state—for the better
But corruption remains a plague

DP1: It is said that the Ukrainian state was created in 1991. A remnant of the Soviet Union, the state was treated by many Ukrainians as more of a nuisance than a benefit. Corruption was rife, from the bribes demanded by traffic policemen to the kickbacks required for government contracts. The people trusted civil society far more than public institutions. Do you believe that this Social Consensus led the Maidan uprising of 2013-14 and select Zelensky as Ukraine's president in 2019, who promised to modernize a state that had previously been synonymous with bureaucracy and corruption?
DP2: It is said that with the support of Western aid agencies, the new Ukraine government established a series of institutions to fight corruption, including an independent investigation bureau, an exclusive prosecutor, and a special court, and strengthened the system by creating a new council of retired American and European judges to regulate judicial conduct. But this change seems to have infuriated Russian President Vladimir Putin. Do you believe that this is the main cause of the Ukraine War?
DP3: Why and how War is reshaping the Ukrainian state—for the better?
DP4: It is said that the tech-savvy young Ukrainians leading this major reform see it not only as a necessity but also as an opportunity, they call this Ukraine 2.0. Do you believe that Ukraine 2.0 can be expected even though corruption in Ukraine remains a plague?
DP5: It is said that Accession to the European Union, which formally approved Ukraine as a candidate country last year, will require detailed reforms of everything from energy markets to customs procedures. Reformists see this process as an important safeguard to prevent the nation's restructuring from going backward. Do you believe it does work?
DP6: It is said that Ukrainian civil society groups are most concerned about reconstruction not that too little money is being spent, but rather that the money is not being used well and much of it is being embezzled.
What is the best strategy to deal with this kind of issue?

Rebuilding Ukraine will require money, but also tough reforms.

Rebuilding Ukraine will require money, but also tough reforms

 Finance & economics | War economics
Rebuilding Ukraine will require money, but also tough reforms.
Policymakers, financiers, and business types meet in London to discuss plans.
 
DP1: It is said that Ukraine has requested $14 billion in aid this year, the bulk of which will be used to subsidize households to rebuild their homes and businesses to repair their operations, so far, only a portion of these funds have been raised. What is the best strategy to raise the funds?
DP2: It is said that Ukraine also needs long-term reconstruction funds. the European Union, the United Nations, the World Bank, and the Ukrainian government projected $411 billion in reconstruction costs over the next 10 years, a division of the World Bank, believes that two-thirds of the funds will need to come from public sources because it will be difficult to attract private financing. In this case, the annual cost would be 0.1% of the GDP of Western countries in the same period. Can we prepare the funds for the Ukraine reconstruction?
DP3: It is said that Ukraine has completed its IMF program and is continuing reforms to improve transparency in property transactions and public procurement. Ukraine also completed two of the seven judicial and anti-corruption reforms required to begin formal accession negotiations with the EU. Do you believe that Ukraine can complete the rest 5 anti-corruption reforms?
DP4: It is said that the integration of the electricity market between Ukraine and the EU has shown the value of promoting Long planned as part of a shift to the West, this process was fast-tracked after the Russian invasion. What does it mean?
DP5: It is said that the question is whether such private financing will actually come. In wartime, investors usually cannot step in without some guarantee from the public sector. One idea being considered in London is for donor countries to provide war insurance and guarantees and help set up a reinsurance market. Do you believe that it does work?
DP6: It is said that Ukrainian reformers, like foreign investors, will need to draw inspiration from the bravery of their compatriots on the battlefield. What is the best strategy to realize the Ukrainian reform plan?

Investors must prepare for sustained higher inflation.

Investors must prepare for sustained higher inflation

Leaders | The trouble with sticky inflation
Investors must prepare for sustained higher inflation.
The costs of taming price rises could prove too unpalatable for central banks.

DP1. It is said that the costs of taming price rises could prove too unpalatable for central banks. Why is that?
DP2: It is said that equity investors are hoping that the central bank can return inflation to its 2% target without triggering a recession. History, however, has shown that a decline in the inflation rate is painful. What does it mean?
DP3: It is said that the central bank has declared that it is committed to achieving its goals. Raising interest rates would destroy enough demand to bring down inflation. If the central bank were to keep its promise, a recession seems more likely than painless disinflation. Do you support this opinion?
DP4: It is said that the new regime could also drag investors down in other ways. A more gradual central bank would initially raise prices and lower yields on short-term bonds. Eventually, as it adjusts to higher inflation, nominal interest rates will rise to hold real rates constant, and prices of long-term bonds will fall in anticipation. Investors will rush to commodities as an inflation hedge. However, there is a danger of a bubble if they rush into the futures market, which is easier to trade than physical commodities. Do you support this opinion?
DP5: It is said that higher inflation will also create new winners and losers. Most obviously, inflation will entail an arbitrary transfer of wealth from lenders to borrowers as the real value of debt falls. What does it mean?
DP6: It is said that central banks are now in this untenable situation. Central banks are likely to be steered between high inflation and recession. Investors still seem to believe that it will end well, but it may not. Do you support this opinion?

---

1. 2023/06/24(Sat) 10 PM-12 AM_ Japan Time_ Topics
2. 2023/06/25(Sun) 9AM-11AM_ Japan Time_ Topics

①How Britain can become an AI Superpower
②How to Make Britain’s AI dreams reality
③The idea of “holobionts” represents a paradigm shift in biology.
④Sooner or later, America’s financial system could seize up
⑤Wage-price spirals are far scarier in theory than in practice.
⑥What Tesla and other carmakers can learn from Ford

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How Britain can become an AI Superpower

How Britain can become an AI superpower

 Leaders | BritGPT
How Britain can become an AI Superpower
Rishi Sunak’s enthusiasm is welcome. But his plans for Britain fall short

DP1: What are several advantages and obstacles for Britain to become an AI Superpower?
DP2: It is said that lots of changes are required if the UK is to thrive in AI.
What are these?
DP3: It is said that a government that has gained expertise like chat GPT must address three concerns. What are the three concerns? and what is the best solution to deal with these concerns?
DP4: It is said that commercial AI is so dynamic that Edinburgh's plans risk becoming an AI white elephant. What does it mean? what is the best solution to deal with this assumption?
DP5: It is said that Nvidia's advantage lies in the clever software that makes it easy to train models on its GPUs. What do you think the best solution is to compete with Nvidia Technology?

 How to make Britain’s AI dreams reality

How to make Britain’s AI dreams reality

Britain | Britain’s AI future
How to Make Britain’s AI dreams reality
Rishi Sunak’s bet that Britain can prosper from AI requires a new approach.

DP1: What are the three elements AI systems are built from?
DP2: It is said that the UK has serious problems to overcome in all these areas, especially in the first two. What are these?  What is the best solution to deal with these issues?
DP3: It is said that one step toward securing talent (as well as attracting investors) is to get the regulation of AI right. This means avoiding the expansion of horizontal rules across sectors that the European Union is expected to follow regarding the safe use of ai. The UK's existing sector-specific common law approach, which regulates different industries in different ways, appears to be a better bet. Do you support this opinion?
DP4: It is said that the people in charge of computing policy at the Ministry of Science, Technology, and Innovation really don't understand computing." They don't understand the difference between general computing and special computing. Do you support this opinion?

The idea of “holobionts” represents a paradigm shift in biology.

The idea of “holobionts” represents a paradigm shift in biology

Science & technology | You are legion
The idea of “holobionts” represents a paradigm shift in biology
These meta-organisms are made up of animals, plants, and the microbiota that live on and inside them

DP1:　It is said that a "paradigm shift," a new way for scientists to view the world, is a departure from the old idea that plants and animals "have microbiomes" and that they are just part of a meta organism in which they evolve in concert with each other. Do you support the “paradigm shift"?
DP2: It is said that paradigm shifts have many causes, but what helped tip the balance, in this case, was a technique called metagenomics. What is metagenomics? Do you support this assumption?
DP3: It is said that there is a relationship between plant genes, particularly those associated with the immune system, and the bacteria that reproduce in the resulting rhizosphere. Do you support this assumption?
DP4: It is said that the third major interaction between the host and microbiome is the immune system, a balanced microbiome helps the immune system by preventing pathogenic bugs from multiplying in the gut.
Do you support this assumption?
DP5: It is said that when planted with a crop such as corn, the cocktail of these bacteria provides an immediate nitrogen-fixing rhizosphere for each seedling. As a result, fertilizer use can be reduced by a factor of five. Do you believe that the price of meat is reduced to one-fifth because of this new technology?
DP6: It is said that cattle and other domestic animals’ termite-like digestive systems produce more than 100 million tons of methane per year, equivalent to about 6% of human greenhouse gas emissions, the addition of 3-nitrooxypropanol or a seaweed called Asparagopsis taxiformis not only reduces methane production but also improves the conversion rate of feed to milk and meat. Do you believe that this new technology shall save the life of the earth?
DP7: It is said that this ecosystem engineering represents holobiont-like thinking on a grand scale.  What does it mean?  What is holobiont-like thinking? Do you believe that this ecosystem engineering shall save the life of the earth?

Sooner or later, America’s financial system could seize up

Sooner or later, America’s financial system could seize up

Finance & economics | Buttonwood
Sooner or later, America’s financial system could seize up
The Federal Reserve must soon decide when to stop shrinking its balance sheet.

DP1: It is said that stunning inaction is back in vogue at the Federal Reserve's interest rate-setting committee. Why has Fed been inaction about monetary policy?
DP2: It is said that Sooner or later, America’s financial system could seize up. What is the reason behind supporting this prediction?
DP3: It is said that the Federal Reserve must soon decide when to stop shrinking its balance sheet. Why can Federal Reserve not decide it quickly?
DP4: It is said that no matter how small the ideal size of the Fed's balance sheet is, further reduction is dangerous. Therefore, QT (quantitative tightening) by selling Bond operations must be stopped before it risks causing a crisis that requires a return to QE (quantitative easing) by buying bond operations. But when is that? That is the next major dilemma for central banks. What is the dilemma for central banks? What is the best solution to deal with the issue?
DP5: It is said that the Treasury will have to sell more than $10 trillion in bonds over the next three months to restore its funding buffer in the current debt ceiling crisis. The increased risk of sudden market moves increases the probability that participants will suddenly need to raise cash for margin calls, and the risk that they will not be able to do so increases as well. What is the best solution to deal with the issue?

Wage-price spirals are far scarier in theory than in practice.

Wage-price spirals are far scarier in theory than in practice

Finance & economics | Free exchange
Wage-price spirals are far scarier in theory than in practice.
Rising salaries are a poor predictor of future inflation.

DP1: It is said that Price and wage inflation seems to have interacted throughout the decade, as the spiral framework suggests. Each time the general rate of price inflation rose sharply, the rate of wage inflation also rose sharply, and then the rate of price inflation rose even more. However, the 1970s are flawed evidence for the existence of a spiral. What does it mean?
DP2: It is said that inflation helps predict changes in labor costs, but changes in labor costs cannot predict inflation. In other words, service providers raised prices before rising wage costs put pressure on their earnings. In other words, wages are a lagging indicator of inflation, not a leading indicator. Do you support this opinion?
DP3: It is said that triple shocks (high commodity prices, strong commodity demand, and supply shortages) account for most of the overshoot in inflation after 2020. There is little evidence that inflation itself triggered wage growth. Wages rose simply because demand for labor exceeded supply. Do you support this opinion?
DP4: Wages and prices can rise by the same force. That is, excess spending in the economy is compounded by shortages of both products and the workers who produce them. Regardless of whether prices and wages interact with each other, economic overheating is a cause for concern. To prevent this, the central bank will need to allow labor demand to cool.
What appropriate monetary policy should be applied to deal with this issue?

What Tesla and other carmakers can learn from Ford

What Tesla and other carmakers can learn from Ford

 Business | Schumpeter
What Tesla and other carmakers can learn from Ford
The 120-year-old company shows the importance of knowing your limits.

 DP1: It is said that Most importantly, he clearly understands where emulating rivals will give his company a competitive advantage and where it will not. Do you support this opinion?
DP2: It is said that where the CEOs of Ford and Tesla's views diverge is in what automakers should be doing outside of car manufacturing. What are different views about?
DP3: It is said that Ford's decision is to continue to rely on outside partners for much of its in-car software. This goes against industry wisdom that infotainment systems, from satellite navigation to music streaming, will increasingly define the car ownership experience, differentiate car brands, and generate revenue from new services.  Why has Ford lost the battle over the cockpit to the big tech companies?
DP4: It is said that the lesson of focusing on what you are good at and leaving the rest to other companies could be profitably learned by many of Ford's rivals.
What are ideal business operations for future carmakers?

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1. 2023/06/17(Sat) 10 PM-12 AM_ Japan Time_ Topics
2. 2023/06/18(Sun) 9AM-11AM_ Japan Time_ Topics

①Apple’s Vision Pro is an incredible machine. Now to find out what it is for
②Apple’s Vision Pro is a technical marvel. Will anyone buy it?
③Generative AI could radically alter the practice of law.
④What TIM’s mega-spin-off reveals about Europe’s telecoms industry
⑤A flawed argument for central-bank digital currencies
⑥After debt-ceiling negotiations, America faces a debt deluge.
⑦A huge Norwegian phosphate rock find is a boon for Europe

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Apple’s Vision Pro is an incredible machine. Now to find out what it is for

Apple’s Vision Pro is an incredible machine. Now to find out what it is for

 Leaders | Mind-goggling
Apple’s Vision Pro is an incredible machine. Now to find out what it is for
The meaning of “spatial computing”

DP1: What is the ultimate use case for spatial computing?
DP2: What is Apple's goal through Vision Pro?
DP3: It is said that Artificial intelligence will allow programmers to create eerily realistic content in all these categories and many more. What is the best way to accelerate this process?

 Apple’s Vision Pro is a technical marvel. Will anyone buy it?

Apple’s Vision Pro is a technical marvel. Will anyone buy it?

Business | Reality check
Apple’s Vision Pro is a technical marvel. Will anyone buy it?
Few will fork out for the gadget. But Apple is preparing the ground for something bigger

DP1: It is said that the first iteration of the Vision Pro may be a commercial failure. But it is also the first step toward what Apple hopes will be something much bigger. What does it mean? What is something much bigger than Apple hopes?
DP2: It is said that the technology, which Apple has yet to release to the public, looks impressive. What kind of technology Apple shall release?
DP3: It is said that few people will touch Vision Pro, at least initially. But it is said that when Apple enters the market, it completely changes the trajectory of the market. What does it mean? Do you support this opinion?

Generative AI could radically alter the practice of law.

Generative AI could radically alter the practice of law

 Business | First thing we do, let’s bot all the lawyers
Generative AI could radically alter the practice of law
Even if it doesn’t replace lawyers en masse

DP1: It is said that AI is not a fad or an apocalypse, but a developing tool that has the potential to fundamentally change the way lawyers work and how law firms make money. This is not only true for the legal industry.
What does it mean? Do you support this assumption?
DP2: It is said a federal judge in Texas instructed attorneys who appeared before him to provide a certificate certifying that they either did not use generative AI at all or if they did, they checked the result. What does it mean?
DP3: It is said that AI-based software is available with one-click access to vast easily searchable databases makes less sense for lawyers to do their legal research in libraries, more companies will follow suit as more companies adopt generative AI. Do you support this opinion?
DP4: It is said that AI has the potential to transform the legal profession in three major ways. What are those?
DP5: It is said that AI may make legal services more affordable and thus more widely available, especially for small businesses that often currently have difficulty obtaining legal services. Do you support this opinion?
DP6: It is said that people who consult with lawyers don't want lawyers; they want problems solved or problems avoided. If AI can deliver those results, people will use AI. Many people are already using software to calculate their taxes, rather than relying on professionals. Few people complain about the lack of social interaction with tax professionals.
Do you believe that AI shall replace all professional jobs? If so, what is the expected role of these professional staff?

What TIM’s mega-spin-off reveals about Europe’s telecoms industry

What TIM’s mega-spin-off reveals about Europe’s telecoms industry

 Business | Schumpeter
What TIM’s mega-spin-off reveals about Europe’s telecoms industry
Splitting operators’ business units could be the first step to consolidation.

DP1: It is said that if many European telcos follow Tim's lead and separate their fixed networks from their other assets, ironically, this "delaying" could be the first step toward integration.  What does it mean?
DP2: It is said that the recent history of European telecom operators is one of grand ambitions. Most of them have failed spectacularly. Why is that?
DP3: It is said that High-tech companies contribute nothing to infrastructure development even though they generate more than half of all Internet traffic. Why is that?
DP4: It is said that many are splitting up internally into business units that offer a variety of services, from cloud computing to network access. Some have also separated their radio towers. The separation will become easier as networks become software controlled. Investors can choose the pie of telecommunications businesses that best suits their risk appetite.
Do you support this opinion?
DP5: It is said that Fragmentation did not prevent them from building mighty fiber networks that cost more than cellular. Europe lags behind the U.S. in 5g, but its fiber coverage on the continent is much better than across the Atlantic. What are the problems European carriers are facing to deal with issues about splitting operators’ business units?

A flawed argument for central-bank digital currencies

A flawed argument for central-bank digital currencies

Finance & economics | Free exchange
A flawed argument for central-bank digital currencies
Europe’s policymakers are wrong: the economy does not need a digital replacement for cash

DP1: It is said that that cbdcs (central bank digital currencies) are necessary to preserve the value of money in a cashless financial system. This idea may encourage governments to restructure their banking and payment systems. But does this idea stand up to scrutiny?
DP2: It is said cbdcs are necessary to anchor the value of money is not convincing because everything would work even if the physical currency were to virtually disappear. What does it mean? Do you support this opinion?
DP3: It is said that regarding the threat of stablecoin, we do not see why creating cbdcs is the easiest way to prevent a currency split. What does it mean?
DP4: It is said that economists have long argued that the ability of governments to choose which currency to tax creates some demand for that currency, whatever form the state prefers. the Bank of England probably does not have to worry about losing its grip unless the Treasury starts accepting crypto assets as tax payments. Do you support this opinion?
DP5: It is said many have argued that a monetary system cannot function well without a specific axis, such as gold or dollars, but this has been proven wrong. The idea that government-issued money needs to be popularized is likely to suffer a similar fate. What does it mean? Do you support this opinion?

After debt-ceiling negotiations, America faces a debt deluge.

After debt-ceiling negotiations, America faces a debt deluge

Finance & economics | Nasty hangover
After debt-ceiling negotiations, America faces a debt deluge
Its coffers depleted, the Treasury will flood the market with bills

DP1: It is said that after debt-ceiling negotiations, America faces a debt deluge, its coffers depleted, and the Treasury will flood the market with bills.
What kind of risks we can predict and what is the best strategy to deal with the risks?
DP2: It is said that Now the Treasury must scramble to replenish its cash, posing a potential danger to the economy. the concern is where the money will come from, particularly whether the sale of Treasuries will drain liquidity from other asset markets. There are two main possible sources of funds, each with its own risks. What are the two main possible sources and these own risks?
DP3: It is said that a temporary encounter with a reserve shortage would not necessarily be catastrophic; the Fed could provide liquidity support if necessary. Also, the pressure on bank reserves would be reduced to the extent that money market funds would buy more paper money. But in any case, there is little doubt that a massive issuance of government bonds would increase market instability and volatility, and almost certainly increase the risk of a breakdown somewhere down the road.
What is the best strategy to deal with these risks?

A huge Norwegian phosphate rock find is a boon for Europe

A huge Norwegian phosphate rock find is a boon for Europe

 Europe | Fjords and forges
A huge Norwegian phosphate rock find is a boon for Europe
The West wants to rely less on China for strategic minerals like vanadium

DP1: It is said that Norwegian Anglo-Norwegian company Norge Mining announced the discovery of a large vein of these three ores in southwestern Norway, amounting to at least 70 billion tons. The phosphate ore from the Norwegian Kola Peninsula is igneous rock and is much purer. Titanium is used in the manufacture of aircraft, including fighter jets. Vanadium is needed to improve steel and is used in the huge high-tech liquid batteries used by electric utilities.
Do you believe that now is the best time to invest huge money in Norway?

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1. 2023/06/10(Sat) 10 PM-12 AM_ Japan Time_ Topics
2. 2023/06/11(Sun) 9AM-11AM_ Japan Time_ Topics

①The AI boom has turbocharged Nvidia’s fortunes. Can it hold its position?
②Nvidia is not the only firm cashing in on the AI gold rush
③Dealmaking has slowed—except among dealmakers
④Australia and Canada are one economy—with one set of flaws
⑤Go First’s insolvency tests India’s bankruptcy regime
⑥What does the perfect carbon price look like?

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The AI boom has turbocharged Nvidia’s fortunes. Can it hold its position?

The AI boom has turbocharged Nvidia’s fortunes. Can it hold its position?

 Leaders | Invincible?
The AI boom has turbocharged Nvidia’s fortunes. Can it hold its position? Competition and regulation may pose a threat—but only eventually

 DP1: It is said that waves of innovation often spawn giants. Microsoft rode the rapid growth of desktop computers; Apple rode the rapid growth of smartphones. The AI boom has turbocharged Nvidia’s fortunes. Why is that? Can it hold its position?
DP2: What is Nvidia's greatest strength that sounds a lot like Microsoft and Apple?

Nvidia is not the only firm cashing in on the AI gold rush

Nvidia is not the only firm cashing in on the AI gold rush

 Business | There’s AI in them thar hills
Nvidia is not the only firm cashing in on the AI gold rush
Selling specialist chips and infrastructure is becoming a trillion-dollar industry

DP1: It is said that Nvidia is not the only firm cashing in on the AI gold rush, selling specialist chips and infrastructure is becoming a trillion-dollar industry. Why is that?
DP2: It is said that the biggest question mark is the permanence of the ai boom itself. despite the growing popularity of ChatGPT and its ilk, profitable use cases for this technology remain unclear. In Silicon Valley, hype can turn to disappointment at the drop of a hat. What example occurred in 2021?
DP3: What is the biggest risk in the AI gold rush?

 Dealmaking has slowed—except among dealmakers

Dealmaking has slowed—except among dealmakers

 Business | A tale of three tie-ups
Dealmaking has slowed—except among dealmakers
The advisory business is consolidating. Is that wise?

 DP1: It is said that Bankers are usually not tormented by loyalty when they receive offers of more compensation elsewhere. Boutiques typically lure star dealmakers with the promise of more compensation but are particularly sensitive to well-connected dealmakers leaving, especially if they take their clients with them. Do you support this opinion?
DP2: Why some dealmaking is successful, and some failed?
DP3: It is said that the advisory business is consolidating. Is that wise?

 Australia and Canada are one economy—with one set of flaws

Australia and Canada are one economy—with one set of flaws

 Business | Schumpeter
Australia and Canada are one economy—with one set of flaws
Welcome to Ozanada. Beware its business weakness

 DP1: It is said that if Australia and Canada were one economy, this would be the fifth largest economy in the world, larger than India and just behind Germany. It is not as difficult as it might seem to think of the two in parallel. What is the similarity of these countries?
DP2: What is the business weakness to invest in these countries?
DP3: What is the best solution to deal with the above issue?

Go First’s insolvency tests India’s bankruptcy regime

Go First’s insolvency tests India’s bankruptcy regime

 Business | Bankruptcy in India
Go First’s insolvency tests India’s bankruptcy regime
A law meant to speed up going broke needs its own restructuring

DP1: It is said that the obstruction of Go First illustrates a longstanding problem with bankruptcy in India. These were supposed to be resolved by the new Insolvency Code introduced in 2016. What does it mean? What are the provisions of this Code?
DP2: It is said that Loans to companies can be made less risky by making collateral easily transferable. Do you agree with this assumption?
DP3: It is said that despite some successes, such as Essar, the system has not lived up to its promise.  What are the persistent problems in this system?
DP4: It is said that improving the bankruptcy process in India may require changes in the law. What is the best solution to deal with this issue?
DP5: It is said that the bankruptcy system needs more resources, as the number of cases increases, so does the backlog. What is the best solution to deal with this issue?

What does the perfect carbon price look like?

What does the perfect carbon price look like?

 Finance & economics | Free exchange
What does the perfect carbon price look like?
Making the best method of tackling climate change even better

 DP1: It is said that putting a price on greenhouse gas emissions is the best way to address climate change. It is efficient and allows society to identify the cheapest unit of carbon dioxide equivalent and forego emissions. It is fair. What does the perfect carbon price look like?
DP2: What are two points the critics focus on about carbon pricing?
DP3: It is said the impact of the carbon price is difficult to measure. Carbon prices, like interest rates, affect and are affected by the economy. Other things being equal, an increase in the carbon price will decrease economic activity and increase consumer prices. Do you believe that applying carbon taxes are ways to separate cause and effect?
DP4: It is said that a final way to clarify cause and effect is to employ an "event study. This is often used to assess the impact of monetary policy decisions. How does it work for carbon pricing?
DP5: It is said that The World Bank estimates that carbon taxes and emissions trading schemes will generate huge tax revenues for governments this year. That amount will only increase as carbon tax schemes expand. This alone would address the criticism that the measures are inadequate. To address the other criticism, the "negative impact on the poor," policymakers need to recognize the importance of recycling.　What does it mean?

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1. 2023/06/03(Sat) 10 PM-12 AM_ Japan Time_ Topics
2. 2023/06/04(Sun) 9AM-11AM_ Japan Time_ Topics

①Artificial brains are helping scientists study the real thing
②What would humans do in a world of super-AI?
③Why tech giants want to strangle AI with red tape
④Activist investors are needed more than ever
⑤The American credit cycle is at a dangerous point
⑥The cost of the global arms race

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Artificial brains are helping scientists study the real thing

Artificial brains are helping scientists study the real thing

 Science & technology | Neuroscience and AI
Artificial brains are helping scientists study the real thing
No model is perfect. But that doesn’t stop them from being useful

DP1: It is said that artificial brains are helping scientists study the real thing. Why is that?
DP2: It is said that the remarkable advances in artificial intelligence over the past decade have been mostly due to advances in machine learning. What does it mean?
DP3: It is said that learning is done by software models called "artificial neural networks" (anns). How does it work?
DP4: It is said that simply having similar patterns of activity between natural and artificial neural circuits was not enough to claim that nerves and brains solve problems in the same way. Do you support this opinion?
DP5: Do you believe that the brain-computer interface that devices that allow the brain and machine to talk directly to each other shall be created and it does work well in the future?
DP6: Do you believe that human beings can admit the right of AI robots if they can act like human beings?

What would humans do in a world of super-AI?

What would humans do in a world of super-AI?

Finance & Economics | Love and Conflict
What would humans do in a world of super-AI?
A thought experiment based on economic principles

DP1: What would humans do in a world of super-AI?
DP2: It is said that the increased potential for super-powerful AI raises the question of what is left for humans with the advent of AI. Will we become couch potatoes like "Wall-E"?
DP3: It is said that what if the super-powerful ai developed superhuman robots? Material needs would almost certainly be fulfilled by machines. Then, like "Wall-E," mankind might abandon labor. Do you support this opinion?
DP4: It is said that for many people, work is a "consumer good" and provides far more utility than the income it generates. That is the reason why people never stop working altogether. Do you support this opinion?
DP5: It is said that it seems unlikely that people will cede political control to robots. Why is that?
DP6: What are the "human premiums" that are the areas in which humans have an advantage in providing goods and services?  Which products do you prefer with the "made by a human" tag or "made by super AI" Tag?
DP7: It is said that someday AI will create entirely new goods and services that will supersede the desire to please and interact with other human beings. It will then become clear how much of a “social animal” humans are. What does it mean?

Why tech giants want to strangle AI with red tape

Why tech giants want to strangle AI with red tape

Business | Schumpeter
Why tech giants want to strangle AI with red tape
They want to hold back open-source competitors

DP1: Why do tech giants want to strangle AI with red tape (regulation)?
DP2: Why do they want to hold back open-source competitors?
DP3: It is said that another reason why this boom is so unique is that startups building their own communication systems are not aiming to overthrow the existing hierarchy of large companies. Rather, they may contribute to strengthening the hierarchy. What is the goal of the startups in this boom?
DP4: It is said that the red tape is not a Schumpeterian era of creative destruction, but a reminder that large established companies currently dominate the innovation process. As a result, innovation may become less likely. Why do they support the red tape (regulation) about this generative AI?

Activist investors are needed more than ever

Activist investors are needed more than ever

 Leaders | Seize the day (and the board)
Activist investors are needed more than ever
Low rates, passive investing, and ESG have left opportunities for active shareholders

DP1: It is said that Activist investors are needed more than ever, Low rates, passive investing, and ESG have left opportunities for active shareholders. Why is that?
DP2: It is said that activists often play an integral role in shareholder capitalism, their campaigns are becoming increasingly important for several reasons. What are these reasons?
DP3: It is said that in this environment that there is a growing danger that companies will lose focus and waste money by getting caught up in politics, the presence of activists is a welcome reminder that corporations should be run in the interests of their owners, not in the interests of management.
What are the roles of the activists?
DP4: It is said that fortunately, the job of activists is getting easier. New rules that went into effect in the U.S. last September make it easier for activists to win board seats by allowing shareholders to vote individually rather than collectively for candidates. However, the wave of shareholder voting that was anticipated in the immediate aftermath has yet to materialize. But more battles between activists and complacent managers are not a bad thing. Why is that?

The American credit cycle is at a dangerous point

The American credit cycle is at a dangerous point

 Finance & economics | Buttonwood
The American credit cycle is at a dangerous point
Welcome to a bad time for big debts

DP1: Why is the American credit cycle at a dangerous point?
DP2: It is said that as long as "r," the real rate of return on capital, exceeds "g," the rate of economic growth, inequality should increase, as Piketty calculated during the 20th century. Do you support this economic theory?
DP3: It is said that it is easy to accept a high cost of capital when the return on that capital is high. And that won't be the case for much longer. What is the best solution to deal with this issue?

The cost of the global arms race

The cost of the global arms race

International | Farewell, the peace dividend
The cost of the global arms race
What a “war tax” means for the global economy

 DP1：It is said that in the decades following the Cold War, it was thought that reducing spending on the military meant increasing spending on infrastructure and public services and reducing debt and taxes. since the 1960s, the world has "freed up" about $4 trillion a year in current prices (equivalent to the education budget of world governments) in this way. Now the peace dividend is turning into a "war tax". How much does it weigh?
DP2: It is said that If the world doubled its military spending overnight (assuming no increase in taxes or debt), it would need to cut public spending by about 5% to balance the books. Not easy, but not that difficult.
What does it mean? Do you support this opinion?
DP3: It is said that enhanced defense-related R&D would encourage broader innovation. In addition, increased investment in defense capabilities could have positive spillover effects on other economic sectors. If so, do you think that war is a necessary evil?
DP4: It is said that a new era of rearmament is upon us, preventing war among the great powers through preparedness and deterrence is very expensive, but not as expensive as waging war, and what is more costly is losing a war. What does it mean? Do you support this opinion?

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1. 2023/05/27(Sat) 10 PM-12 AM_ Japan Time_ Topics
2. 2023/05/28(Sun) 9AM-11AM_ Japan Time_ Topics

①The fight over the future of global payments
②digital payments revolution in India
③Central-bank digital currencies are talked about more than coming to fruition
④Could digital payment systems help unseat the dollar?
⑤The old bank/card model is still entrenched in the rich world
⑥The promise of crypto has not lived up to its initial excitement.
⑦The financial system is slipping into state control

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The fight over the future of global payments

The fight over the future of global payments

 Leaders | Payment parity
The fight over the future of global payments
Digital payments have transformed domestic finance. Now the competition is going global

DP1: It is said that has transformed the way money is spent domestically, the race to transform payments has now spread globally. Cross-border retail spending (including tourism) and remittances will reach $5 trillion this year, and business-to-business payments will amount to eight times that amount. What are three major firms are vying to handle these enormous flows of funds?
DP2: It is said that China is the most advanced challenger with payment apps, the UnionPay card network, and the broader "cips" alternative to Swift. in third place is India, which is increasing its appetite to take upi global. What are the influences on the present payment system by challengers?
DP3: It is said that more open global payments will also benefit Western consumers and businesses. What are these benefits? What made it available?
DP4: It is said that the domestic payments market tends to be a win/win situation, favoring large networks with many users. For cross-border payments, consumers and businesses tend to prefer the payment systems they use in their respective countries. What are expected payment services by consumers?
DP5: It is said that financial digitization has already improved the lives of billions of people, and the new global competition promises to further enhance that achievement. Do you believe that competition in the market is always increasing the quality of the services?

< Special report | Emerging markets>

A digital payments revolution in India

A digital payments revolution in India

How emerging economies from India to Brazil built alternative payments models

DP1: It is said that UPI, the Unified Payments Interface, is a platform that allows free and fast account-to-account transfers using fintech apps such as PhonePe and Google Pay.　What is the different function between UPI and China's Alipay?
DP2: It is said that the Indian model is inspiring other countries. Brazil's Pix, which facilitates interbank payments for a small fee, such an open instant payment system is an alternative to both the rich global banking and card model and China's closed fintech model. What are even bigger benefits than the efficiency of an open instant payment system?
DP3: It is said that the benefits of digital finance tend to be greater in emerging markets than in wealthier ones. Why is that?
DP4: It is said that open payment systems may no longer create influential giants like China's Ant Inc. Why is that?
DP5: It is said that state support is essential for the success of open platforms. Why is that?
DP6: It is said that there are drawbacks to the state-led, zero-commission model. Why is that?
DP7: What are the drawbacks of UPI: an open instant payment system?
DP8: It is said that no perfect instant payment system exists, but UPI is a clear improvement over cash payments. What are those improvements?
DP9: It is said that if we can make payments with UPI anywhere, it will certainly create new competition for the banking and card giants in Europe and the United States. Do you support this opinion?

< Special report | Digital money>

Central-bank digital currencies are talked about more than coming to fruition

Central-bank digital currencies are talked about more than coming to fruition

The roll-out of central-bank digital currencies is proving slower than expected

DP1: It is said that the world's first central bank digital currency (cbdc) called "Avant" was issued by the central bank of Finland in 1992. Avant was not nearly as popular as other payment methods, such as credit cards with points. And it did not make money. Why is that ?
DP2: It is said that it would be wrong to dismiss cbdcs. Central banks are the ultimate clearing house in any financial system. A "wholesale" cbdc, accessible only to certain financial institutions, could make the payment system more competitive by allowing fintech firms to access the central bank directly without the need for banks. cbdc could improve cross-border payments and allow for instant settlement between currency pairs. Do you support this opinion?
DP3: It is said that the impact of CBDCs depends largely on their design. Since they are all liabilities of the central bank, there is no risk of deposit outflows to commercial banks. Some use private blockchains, others do not. Do you believe that this is the ideal financial system?
DP4: It is said that China's e-cny, the largest cbdc pilot does not charge interest and has zero transaction fees, the reason for the limits and zero interest rates is to prevent a massive outflow of deposits from commercial banks to cbdcs. Do you want to use China's e-cny in the future?
DP5: It is said that other central banks are watching with interest. Some have dropped the idea altogether because most of the potential value of cbdc is feasible in the existing system. Do you believe that is the reason why all of these possible futures are so far only experiments?
DP6: It is said that the potential to make cbdcs special explain these use cases: farmers were reportedly given e-cny's with smart contracts stipulating that they could only be used for agricultural purposes. cbdc could help countries with the messaging and transfer of funds needed for cross-border transactions. Why are cbdcs not distributed even if they have big potential?
Are Banking industries afraid of the disappearance of their existence?

<Special report | International finance>

Could digital payment systems help unseat the dollar?

Could digital-payments systems help unseat the dollar?

Might digital finance reduce the world’s dependence on the dollar?

 DP1: It is said that the digital payment platform will help reduce dependence on Switzerland and the dollar, still the world's dominant currencies. India has linked upi to Singapore's high-speed payment system and is in talks with 30 other countries to help them adopt the upi model and build international financial links,it could become "a cross-border, low-value retail payment network." Do you want to use the digital payment platform: upi instead of using the present payment system?
DP2: It is said that the cross-border interbank payment system (cips), launched in 2015 by China, transfers funds in real-time payments. the number of participants had grown to 1,430, more than half of which are based outside of China. cips will process more than $50 billion a day by 2022, with a 75% increase in transaction volume by 2021. This is 40 times the size of the U.S. clearing house cips, which would provide an alternative to the Western system in the event of sanctions. Do you want to use these chips launched by China?
DP3: It is said that One attempt by the Bank for International Settlements (bis), called mBridge, a club of central banks, linked central banks in China, Hong Kong, Thailand, and uae via a distributed ledger to settle cross-border payments. Transactions with foreign countries are often cumbersome because few banks have accounts abroad. the sending bank has to transfer funds to correspondent banks that have accounts abroad, which is costly, in theory, a system like mBridge could reduce costs. the system worked well technically. you use the mBridge at no cost. But What are the remaining problems with it?
DP4: It is said that the new cross-border payment system will certainly reduce transaction costs beyond dollars and Swiss, the dominance of a currency historically begins with the issuance of trade invoices. As its popularity grows and capital markets deepen, its attractiveness as a reserve currency increases. If so, why has the U.S. abandoned its "seat at the table" on cbdcs?
DP5: It is said that neither the yuan nor any other currency is close to becoming a serious challenger to the dollar. However, if digital finance makes it less expensive to avoid the dollar, this may be a concern in the United States. Do you believe that the dollar shall be not a reserve currency anymore in the wave of this digital finance?

< Special report | Techfin v fintech>

The old bank/card model is still entrenched in the rich world

The old bank/card model is still entrenched in the rich world

Banks and card networks have proved remarkably resilient in the face of digital competition

DP1: What are several reasons to be optimistic about the new digital finance and fintech boom?
DP2: It is said that the economics of credit cards help explain the strength of the bank-card model, one criticism of the system is that it particularly squeezes the margins of smaller retailers who lack the power to negotiate lower fees. A larger problem is that retailers pass on some of the card fees to consumers as a price increase. What is the best solution to deal with these issues?
DP3: why are credit card fees so high in the u.s.?
DP4: It is said that there are three broad ideas for improving the current model: discriminatory pricing, regulation, and competition from new networks to search for improvement. What are the details of these ideas?

<Special report | Cryptocurrencies>

The promise of crypto has not lived up to its initial excitement.

The promise of crypto has not lived up to its initial excitement

A crypto-finance revolution looks further off than ever

 DP1: It is said that attitudes toward crypto are polarized. Some say the promise of revolutionizing finance has broken down. Crypto was meant to circumvent a rigid rent-seeking financial system that was expensive, inaccessible to many, and potentially untrustworthy. Do you support this opinion?
DP2: It is said that " Encrypted transactions promised to be more efficient and avoid cumbersome government control. However, neither advantage has materialized in practice. Transactions still have to be verified by a computer that maintains a copy of the associated blockchain. This is one of the reasons why Coinbase, the listed crypto exchange in the US, charges a 1% fee for payments. Add to that the cost of transferring cryptocurrency in and out, and the overall cost is considerably higher. Why pay a fee to transact on the Ethereum blockchain when India's upi or Brazil's Pix is cheaper?
DP3: It is said that avoiding government oversight is not easy either. To move from traditional currencies to crypto, consumers must use centralized platforms like Coinbase or Binance, which are on-ramps. The same is true for stablecoins pegged to the dollar. This is the same as claiming that crypto is unnecessary. Do you support this opinion?
DP4: It is said that Crypto will not remake the global financial system because it has proven to be inefficient and unaffected by regulation. Rather, the leading candidates for digital transformation may be central banks.
Do you believe that the central banks can lead the ideal digital transformation system?
DP5: It is said that All payment systems come with trade-offs. In a sense, all that is needed is a spreadsheet recording how much of a given currency any would-be payer has. But to prevent fraud, manage disputes, ensure privacy, and offer credit, the costs can add up. One estimate suggests they can amount to over 2% of global GDP. Do you believe that AI can trade off several concerns about All Payment systems instead of the central bank or government?

The financial system is slipping into state control

The financial system is slipping into state control

 Finance & economics | Leviathan swells
The financial system is slipping into state control
What will it look like after the next spell of instability?

DP1: It is said that it is part of the core of the capitalist process." Banks free investment, Schumpeter's driving force of creative destruction, from "the voluntary abstinence habits of savers." Do you support this opinion?
DP2: It is said that emergency support by central banks needs to become more common in a world of ultra-fast banking transactions such as the scramble that brought down the svb. banks need to be prepared to provide central banks with the collateral needed for emergency loans covering all deposits and withstanding total lending limits. This highlights another way in which the state controls the banks: the list of assets it considers eligible as collateral for emergency loans. Banks would only be able to access deposit financing if they hold assets that have the endorsement of the government. Do you support this logic to support a stable financial system?
DP3: It is said the world is moving toward a greater role for the government and a smaller role for the private sector. This fact should alarm anyone who values the role of the private sector in risk decisions. the seeds of many banking crises were laid by misguided government intervention in banking, especially moves to distort incentives and pricing of risk. What is the best solution to deal with this issue?
DP4: It is said that it may be easier to sleep at night knowing that the government is promising to protect all deposits, making generous loans to clinging banks, and injecting money into the system through windfalls. But it is precisely this kind of behavior that will lead to sleepless nights in the future. What is the best solution to deal with this issue?

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1. 2023/05/20(Sat) 10 PM-12 AM_ Japan Time_ Topics
2. 2023/05/21(Sun) 9AM-11AM_ Japan Time_ Topics

①What does a leaked Google memo reveal about the future of AI?
②Your job is (probably) safe from artificial intelligence.
③Investors brace for a painful crash into America’s debt ceiling
④A new world order seeks to prioritize security and climate change.
⑤Just how good can China get at generative AI?
⑥What America’s tiny banks do that big one don’t

---

What does a leaked Google memo reveal about the future of AI?

What does a leaked Google memo reveal about the future of AI?

 Leaders | A stochastic parrot in every pot
What does a leaked Google memo reveal about the future of AI?
Open-source AI is booming. That makes it less likely that a handful of firms will control the technology.
 
DP1: What kind of a turning point in computing was marked by Bill Gates' 1995 "Internet tidal wave" memo?
DP2: What kind of a turning point in computing was marked by Jeff Bezos' 2002 "API mandate" that opened up Amazon's digital infrastructure to the modern memo?
DP3: What kind of a turning point in computing was marked by the technologists in an uproar over another memo titled "We have no moat," leaked from within Google?
DP4: It is said that training artificial intelligence on a large scale takes months and costs tens of millions of dollars. therefore, there was concern that ai would be dominated by a few well-funded companies, but that assumption is incorrect, the Google memo states. Why is that?
DP5: It is said that powerful LMSs can now run on laptops and anyone can fine-tune their AI, this has both positive and negative implications. What are these?

Your job is (probably) safe from artificial intelligence.

Your job is (probably) safe from artificial intelligence

Finance & economics | Beyond the hype
Your job is (probably) safe from artificial intelligence.
Why predictions of an imminent economic revolution are overstated.
 
DP1: It is said that A new study points out that "the widespread adoption of AI could ultimately increase global annual GDP by 7%, Academic studies point to a 3-percentage point increase in annual growth in labor productivity for firms that adopt the technology. But why are financial markets showing more modest results? What does that mean about the future economic development of AI Technology?
DP2: It is said that by considering the history of past technological innovation, it is not often the case that a single new technology, by itself, has fundamentally changed an economy, for good or ill. Why is that?
It is said that monopoly, labor markets, and productivity are three areas we should consider with new technology. What are the influences on these areas of AI Technology?
DP3: It is said that A recent study by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics found that occupations classified as "at risk" by new technologies in recent years do not show a general trend of noticeably rapid job losses. Why is that?
DP4: It is said that historically, job destruction happens much more slowly with new technology. Why is that?
DP5: It is said that about 60% of the jobs in the U.S. did not exist in 1940.
What kind of new jobs shall be created by AI Technology?
DP6: It is said that the impact of AI Technology on the labor market would be small, and the third factor, the effect on productivity, would also be small. Why is that?
DP7: It is said that AI economies may even reduce productivity. Why is that?
DP8: What is an appropriate strategy for using AI Technology to increase productivity, optimize labor markets, and deal with monopoly issues?
 

Investors brace for a painful crash into America’s debt ceiling

Investors brace for a painful crash into America’s debt ceiling

 Finance & economics | Buttonwood
Investors brace for a painful crash into America’s debt ceiling
A solution will probably be found. But the default is no longer unthinkable.
 
DP1: It is said that it is a basic tenet of the financial system that U.S. government bonds can never default. What is the reason behind supporting this established theory?
DP2: It is said that default is a real possibility because the U.S. has hit the "debt ceiling" multiple times. What is the best solution to deal with this risk?
DP3: What are the major influences on Short-term government bonds
and long-term government bonds by default?
DP4: It is said that long-term Treasuries have been considered safer in the past, on the assumption that an actual default would shock politicians into stubbornness and be quickly corrected. But even long-term Treasuries are far from safe. How can we find out this indication?
DP5: It is said that default remains the least likely outcome. But as investors are acutely aware, it is no longer unthinkable. Do you support this opinion?

A new world order seeks to prioritize security and climate change.

A new world order seeks to prioritise security and climate change

 Finance & economics | Free exchange
A new world order seeks to prioritize security and climate change.
But policymakers must not forget the lessons of economics.
 
DP1: It is said that after the Cold War, the United States and Europe established an economic order based on open markets, global trade, and limited state interference in the economy. Why does this economic order not work well recently?
DP2: It is said that trying to achieve multiple goals (e.g., addressing climate change, revitalizing the industry, strengthening security) with a single lever is more likely to fail. Why does this approach not work? What is the best strategy to trade these?
DP3: It is said that the paradigm that has become the conventional wisdom risks fostering one-size-fits-all solutions, the old Washington Consensus was inadequate in terms of fairness and growth. Do you support this opinion?
DP4: It is said that it is now easy for economists everywhere to recognize the dangers of the new consensus, policymakers would be wise to listen. Why must policymakers not forget the lessons of economics?

Just how good can China get at generative AI?

Just how good can China get at generative AI?

 Business | The Sino-American tech race
Just how good can China get at generative AI?
Its models may in time rival America’s. But that may not translate into an economic or military edge.
 
DP1: It is said that "generative" ai such as ChatGPT, which can analyze human text, images, and voice on the web and create increasingly workable simulacrums If generative AI is as transformative as its proponents claim, this technology may give those who manipulate it an economic and military advantage in the geopolitical competition of the 21st century. Western and Chinese strategists are already talking about an AI arms race. Can China win it?
DP2: What are three reasons that China is building its basic model two to three years behind the US?
DP3: It is said that three shortages in data, hardware, and expertise are hurdles for China, but whether this will hamper China's AI ambitions for longer is another question. What does it mean?
DP4: It is said that it is hard to imagine that either the U.S. or China can build a lead that cannot be filled by AI modeling. Even if China faces U.S. sanctions and pays the price, each may end up with an AI with similar capabilities. Do you support this opinion?
DP5: It is said that the anti-technology campaign has officially ended, but it has left deep scars, at least on the AI business. Whether generative AI is revolutionary or not, the free market has a bet on who will make the most of it. What does it mean? Do you believe that the free market takes precedence over everything else in business?

What America’s tiny banks do that big ones don’t

What America’s tiny banks do that big ones don’t

 United States | Community banks
What America’s tiny banks do that big ones don’t
The advantages of boots on the ground
 
DP1: It is said that some view community banks, generally defined as having less than $10 billion in assets, as inefficient historical relics, they represent 97% of the total number of banks in the U.S., but less than 14% of assets and deposits. Why do we need Community banks?
DP2: What do America’s tiny banks do that big one don’t
DP3: What are the advantages of boots on the ground?

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1. 2023/05/13(Sat) 10 PM-12 AM_ Japan Time_ Topics
2. 2023/05/14(Sun) 9AM-11AM_ Japan Time_ Topics

①Governments are living in a fiscal fantasyland
②How to battle superbugs with viruses that “eat” them
③Western firms are becoming interested in Soviet medicine.
④America faces a debt nightmare
⑤How Japanese policymakers ended up in a very deep hole
⑥The 2023 crony-capitalism index

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Governments are living in a fiscal fantasyland

Governments are living in a fiscal fantasyland

 The world over, they are failing to confront the dire state of their finances

DP1: It is said that the U.S. budget deficit will continue to grow as the population ages, rationing costs swell, and the government's interest burden increases. We estimate that budget deficits could reach around 7% of annual GDP by the end of this decade. Worrisome is that no one has a sensible plan for reducing the deficit. Why is that?
DP2: It is said that other governments are under similar pressures but seem equally oblivious, the government is stuck in fiscal fantasyland and must find a way out before disaster strikes. What is the best solution to deal with this issue?
DP3: It is said that politicians need to get real fast. Public debt is likely to become unmanageable, especially if interest rates remain high. With each increase in debt, the government's ability to respond to the next crisis diminishes. There are also limits to how much spending can be controlled.
What is the best solution to deal with this issue?
DP4: As such, higher taxes are inevitable. And with higher taxes, it will be crucial to finance economic growth in the right way. Can you accept the higher taxes?
DP5: It is said that leaving fiscal fantasyland will be painful, and there will no doubt be calls to postpone fiscal consolidation to another day. But it is far better to make a prudent exit now than to wait for the illusion to crumble.
Do you believe that human beings can execute proactive actions before they face the real problem?

How to battle superbugs with viruses that “eat” them

How to battle superbugs with viruses that “eat” them

Leaders | When viruses are good for you
How to battle superbugs with viruses that “eat” them
As antibiotic resistance spreads, bacteriophages could help avert a crisis
 
DP1: It is said that Antibiotics are an integral part of modern medicine. Their ability to kill bacteria without harming the patient has directly saved billions of lives and made everything from C-sections to chemotherapy safer. If antibiotics did not exist, life expectancy would drop by a third. But after decades of continued use, their power is waning. Some bacteria have acquired resistance, and the number of "superbugs," which have no effective treatment, continues to grow. What is the best solution to deal with this issue?
DP2: Why is making new antibiotics an unattractive proposition for pharmaceutical companies? What conflict of interest between Doctors and pharmaceutical companies about the new antibiotics?
DP3: It is said that microbiologists have known for decades that disease-causing bacteria suffer from their own illnesses. Bacteriophages (or "phages" for short) are specialized viruses that infect and often kill bacteria, making them susceptible to attack. What are the differences between phages and Antibiotics? What are the advantages and disadvantages to use these overcoming diseases?
DP4: It is said that the history of virus-spreading antibiotics shows that governments can encourage the activities of private companies. What can the government help to develop the Bacteriophages (or "phages" for short)?

Western firms are becoming interested in Soviet medicine.

Western firms are becoming interested in a Soviet medicine

 Science & technology | The antibiotics crisis
Western firms are becoming interested in a Soviet medicine
“Phage therapy” aims to use viruses to cure bacterial infections
 
DP1: What are the differences between phages and Antibiotics? What are the advantages and disadvantages to use these overcoming diseases?
DP2: It is said that phage can be used in fields other than medicine.
What fields shall Phage apply ?   Agriculture and livestock industry?
DP3: It is said that even some of the phage's most ardent supporters do not believe that phage can replace antibiotics. They do, however, hope that phage will serve as a treatment for infections that are otherwise ineffective, or as an adjunct to enhance the effectiveness of conventional antibiotics. But for that to happen, we need to build the infrastructure to pursue the idea properly. Are you interested in investing in the infrastructure to overcome the antibiotics crisis?

America faces a debt nightmare

America faces a debt nightmare

 Finance & economics | In God we bust
America faces a debt nightmare
It is not just about gridlock in Washington
 
DP1: It is said that the U.S. debt clock, which stood at $3 trillion when it was inaugurated in 1989 and now stands at more than $31 trillion. America faces a debt nightmare. What is the cause of the increase of the Debt?
DP2: It is said that the US government will run out of money on hand and will be unable to take budget action as early as June 1. At that point, the U.S. will either default or be forced to make drastic cuts to the national budget. Either way, it would be devastating to world markets. A default would undermine confidence in the world's most important financial system, and deep budget cuts could trigger a severe recession. Do you support that above opinion?
DP3: It is said that the US government projects that the trust funds that finance Social Security and Medicare will become insolvent in the early 2030s. What is the best solution to deal with this issue?
DP4: It is said that America needs serious political debate and bipartisan agreement to put its fiscal house in order. But U.S. leaders are unwilling to engage in serious debate or reach an agreement. Why is that? Who can take care of this issue?

How Japanese policymakers ended up in a very deep hole

How Japanese policymakers ended up in a very deep hole

 Finance & economics | Free exchange
How Japanese policymakers ended up in a very deep hole
Ueda Kazuo, their new leader, must stop digging
 
DP1: How Japanese policymakers ended up in a very deep hole?
DP2: It is said that now the BOJ has a very different problem: Inflation in Japan is at its highest level since the early 1980s, and even a modest increase in interest rates can be devastating to the economy. After decades of trying to stimulate a stagnant economy, Japan's central bank finds itself in a tricky predicament, unable to move significantly in any direction.
What are appropriate actions by BOJ to deal with this issue?
DP3: It is said that around the world, households are usually squeezed by rising interest rates. At least in the short term, Japanese households may benefit. Why is that?
DP4: It is said that BOJ owns more than half of Japan's bond market, and even longer-term bonds, have accelerated the pace at which rising interest rates affect fiscal calculations. When the BOJ purchases bonds, it creates reserve assets that pay the base interest rate. If interest rates rise, the BOJ immediately increases its liability on these reserves. The BOJ would shoulder the loss, and the government would have to pay for it. Can you accept the increase in Tax because of the deficit that the government is facing?
DP5: It is said that the Japanese economy has never experienced a coordinated recovery from an asset bubble burst. in 1990. Why is that?
What are appropriate monetary and fiscal policies for the recovery of the Japanese economy?

The 2023 crony-capitalism index

The 2023 crony-capitalism index

 International | Which billionaires lost out?
The 2023 crony-capitalism index
War, tech woes, and cock-ups have pummeled certain plutocrats
 
DP1: It is said that Rent-seeking is common in sectors close to the state, such as banking, construction, real estate, and natural resources. Rent-seekers may be able to inflate their revenues by gaining favorable access to land, licenses, and resources. They may also form cartels to limit competition or lobby governments for favorable regulations. They may bend the rules, but they usually do not break them. Do you believe that the Tax rate in these industries should be higher than in other industries?
DP2: It is said that in the U.S., the wealth of the Rent-seekers is about 2% of GDP, while the wealth of the non- Rent-seekers is 15%. However, high-tech firms have the characteristics of Rent-seeking firms. If we reclassify tech as a fringe industry in our index, U.S. fringe wealth increases to 6% of GDP. Do you believe that the Tax rate in the IT industry should be higher than in other industries?
DP3: what happens when cronyism gets completely out of control? a "kleptocracy" is formed when elites enrich themselves and impoverish the country. such a regime and its consequences are warned in the late 1960s. It took more than 50 years for Western nations to heed his words. Why does it take such a long time? Why does nobody control cronyism and kleptocracy?
DP4: It is said that Now the Western authorities need to prevent dangerous assets from seeping into their country. What is the best solution to deal with this issue?
Do you believe that digital money with blockchain technology can solve this issue?

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1. 2023/05/06(Sat) 10 PM-12 AM_ Japan Time_ Topics
2. 2023/05/07(Sun) 9AM-11AM_ Japan Time_ Topics

①As Israel turns 75, its biggest threats now come from within
②ChatGPT raises questions about how humans acquire language.
③Economists and investors should pay less attention to consumers.
④Investors have reason to fear a strong economy.
⑤Is mining set for a new wave of mega-mergers?
⑥The West should supply Ukraine with F-16s.
⑦Ukraine’s top guns need new jets to win the war.

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As Israel turns 75, its biggest threats now come from within

As Israel turns 75, its biggest threats now come from within

Leaders | Survivor nation
As Israel turns 75, its biggest threats now come from within
The country needs a new political settlement that diminishes the power of extremists

 DP1: It is said that before declaring independence in 1948, Israel was warned by its generals that it had a 50-50 chance of survival. Today, Israel is extremely prosperous, the most secure and democratic it has ever been in its history.　What is the cause of these in Israel?
DP2: It is said that the danger of aggression threatened Israel's survival; in the 21st century, internal divisions threaten to undermine the strength and agility necessary for prosperity. What does it mean?
DP3: It is said that like many successful countries, it has embraced competition and disruptive change and could unite when interests align. Israel's ingenuity and resilience will again be tested by three new trends.
What are three new trends?
DP4: It is said that it is easy to imagine a virtuous circle for Israel to prosper in the coming decades. Why is that? What is the key to making Israel prosper?

ChatGPT raises questions about how humans acquire language.

ChatGPT raises questions about how humans acquire language

Culture | Johnson
ChatGPT raises questions about how humans acquire language.
It has reignited a debate over the ideas of Noam Chomsky, the world’s most famous linguist.

 DP1: In 1997, when the chess computer Deep Blue defeated the world chess champion, many people held their breath, fearing that a machine could defeat mankind. we are again seeing the same kind of amazement that Deep Blue did. This time, computers have come to master what humans consider their defining ability: language. Do you support the above opinion?
DP2: It is said that it is difficult to understand what llm "thinks" for several reasons. commercially available ones, such as ChatGPT, have their own programming and learning data details. And even programmers do not know exactly what is going on inside. Could you accept ChatGPT?
DP3: It is said that GPT-3 (the underlying llm of ChatGPT until GPT-4 was released) is estimated to learn about 1,000 times more data than a human 10-year-old. In other words, it is possible that children have an inborn propensity for grammar and are far more proficient than any llm. the brain really is made for language. Do you support the above opinion?
DP4: Sooner or later, do you believe that humankind shall be replaced by ChatGPT?

Economists and investors should pay less attention to consumers.

Economists and investors should pay less attention to consumers

 Finance & economics | Free exchange
Economists and investors should pay less attention to consumers.
Their thoughts can be misleading.
 
DP1: It is said that Understanding consumer spending is like the Holy Grail for forecasters, as consumer spending accounts for about two-thirds of the U.S. GDP. A proper understanding of consumer spending will also shed more light on other economic trends. The past few years, however, have not been good for those who focus on consumer sentiment as a guide to future consumption. What does it mean?
DP2: It is said that the gap between subjective pessimism and optimistic objective reasons highlights a conundrum.
what is the value of sentiment data if one continues to spend against one's feelings?
DP3: It is said that there is a great market desire for sentiment indexes, whatever their shortcomings, to understand why, it is useful to consider the weakness of such indices: they can reveal the present rather than foretell the future. What does it mean?
DP4: It is said that consumer confidence data is the sole explanatory factor, it was found to significantly improve forecasts of consumption growth. What is the problem when we use this indication?
DP5: It is said that sentiment indicators are particularly important given the time lag in economic data. What are the reliable indicators that the University of Michigan released?

Investors have reason to fear a strong economy.

Investors have reason to fear a strong economy

 Finance & economics | Buttonwood
Investors have reason to fear a strong economy.
Meet the next pain trade.
 
DP1: It is said that two people make one market, and inevitably there will be conflicting opinions. But never before have the signals from each market seemed more conflicting than today. What does it mean?
 DP2: It is said that usually, the riskiest time in finance is not when different investors have sharply contradictory views, but when a large number of investors have similar ideas. What does it mean?
DP3: It is said that Central banks are not the only ones influencing interest rates. As politicians wrangle over the U.S. debt ceiling, there is a growing risk that politicians will miscalculate and cause a default, accidentally causing borrowing costs to skyrocket. Such a risk may seem small. But pain trades happen all the time. Do you support this opinion? If so, What is the best strategy for us to prevent such risks?

Is mining set for a new wave of mega-mergers?

Is mining set for a new wave of mega-mergers?

Business | Schumpeter
Is mining set for a new wave of mega-mergers?
Dealmaking is the new digging.
 
DP1: It is said that Years of discipline, soaring commodity prices, and the prospect of exploding demand for "green" metals have mining industry bosses dreaming of fancy deals again. For companies with growth aspirations, the high costs and risks involved in developing new projects and the relatively cheap valuations of companies in the sector make buying rather than digging seem more attractive. Do you support this opinion?
DP2: It is said that the Valuation of mining companies is as difficult as predicting the future price of the commodities they produce, and overinvestment can spell disaster. What is the best strategy to prevent such risks?
DP3: It is said that as the lines between economic and national security interests become increasingly blurred, countries are tightening their investment screening regimes and focusing more and more on minerals essential to the energy transition. What are appropriate investment screening regimes for the mining business?

The West should supply Ukraine with F-16s.

The West should supply Ukraine with F-16s

 Leaders | The war in Ukraine
The West should supply Ukraine with F-16s.
Or Russian fighter jets may win control of Ukrainian skies.
 
DP1: It is said that Russian fighter jets may win control of Ukrainian skies if the West does not supply Ukraine with F-16s. What is the reason why F-16s are required in the war in Ukraine? Why will the West not supply Ukraine with F-16s?
DP2: It is said that the F-16s would need smooth runways, which Ukraine does not have but the Swedish Gripen, which requires less maintenance and can take off from short runways and roads, is an ideal aircraft. However, there are relatively few Gripens in Europe, 126, of which about three-quarters are owned by Sweden.
Do you believe that the Swedish Gripen is another option to prevent to start World War III? https://youtu.be/8cromYR0x7A
DP3: It is said that President Volodymyr Zelensky is demanding F-16s because his advisers believe that without them, Ukraine's skies could be filled with Russian bombers. So far, they have made better judgments about the war than Western experts. Do you support this opinion? If so, what is the best strategy for Ukraine to get the fighter jet?

Ukraine’s top guns need new jets to win the war.

Ukraine’s top guns need new jets to win the war

 Europe | War in the skies
Ukraine’s top guns need new jets to win the war.
There is a dogfight between Swedish Gripens and American F-16s
 
DP1: What are the advantages and disadvantages to use Swedish Gripens and American F-16s as dogfighters?
DP2: It is said that the importance of electronic warfare (EW) in blinding Russian fighters is pointed out, but Ukraine can deploy simpler ground systems rather than the dedicated EW aircraft used by the US and its allies because a data link between fighter aircraft and ground-based air defense radar is more important. Without such a link, Gripen and F-16s are little more than powered-up Migs. Do you believe that Ukraine can win the war because they always use cutting-edge technology?

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1. 2023/04/29(Sat) 10 PM-12 AM_ Japan Time_ Topics
2. 2023/04/30(Sun) 9AM-11AM_ Japan Time_ Topics

①How to worry wisely about artificial intelligence
②Large, creative AI models will transform lives and labor markets.
③How generative models could go wrong.
④How businesses are experimenting with ChatGPT-like services
⑤Why EY and its rivals may eventually break up, after all.
⑥How to explain the puzzle of the world economy

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How to worry wisely about artificial intelligence

How to worry wisely about artificial intelligence

 Leaders | Technology and society
How to worry wisely about artificial intelligence
Rapid progress in AI is arousing fear as well as excitement. How worried should you be?
 
DP1: It is said that AI's proponents claim the potential to solve big problems, such as developing new drugs, designing new materials to combat climate change, and unraveling the complexities of nuclear fusion power. Are you AI's proponent? Not? If so, why not?
DP2: It is said that the first wave of state-of-the-art ai systems that emerged a decade ago relied on carefully labeled training data, the current system does not require pre-labeling and can be trained on much larger datasets taken from online sources. With this AI technology change, How much should we be afraid of it? And what should governments do?
DP3: It is said that the possibility of a sudden disruption in the job market cannot be ruled out. while technology has tended to replace unskilled jobs, LLMs (large-scale language models) can also perform white-collar tasks such as summarizing documents and writing code. If so, do you disagree to be AI's proponent?
DP4: It is said that the nightmare is that an advanced AI could create poisons or viruses or persuade humans to commit acts of terrorism, causing massive damage. Researchers worry that future AIs may have different goals than their human creators. How can we prevent such a nightmare?
DP5: It is said that Existing Ai systems have real concerns about bias, privacy, and intellectual property rights. As the technology advances, other issues may become apparent. The key is to balance Ai's potential with an assessment of the risks and be prepared to adapt. What are three different approaches governments are taking?
DP6: It is said that this powerful technology presents new risks, but also great opportunities, balancing these two requires careful action, now is the time to begin laying that foundation. What kind of foundation do you expect for this powerful technology?

Large, creative AI models will transform lives and labor markets.

Large, creative AI models will transform lives and labour markets

 Science & technology | Generative AI
Large, creative AI models will transform lives and labor markets.
They bring enormous promise and peril. In the first of three special articles, we explain how they work
 
DP1: It is said that AI software's capabilities exploded in the modern era in the early 2010s when a software technology called "deep learning" became widespread. How does it work?
DP2: It is said that GPT-4 passes the U.S. Uniform Bar Examination, which is administered before admission to the bar, in the 90th percentile. The slightly smaller GPT-3.5 flunked. What are the differences between GPT-4 and GPT-3.5?
DP3: It is said that GPT-4 is a type of generative AI called a large language model (LLM). How does it work?
DP4: It is said that to learn from a huge amount of data, LLM's attention network is key, attention networks build into the model a way to learn and exploit the relationships between words and concepts, even when they are far apart in the text, allowing for the processing of huge amounts of data in a reasonable amount of time. In a typical LLM, many different attention networks run in parallel, and this parallelization allows processing to be performed on multiple GPUs. Do you believe that  LLM's attention network is key for GPT-4 to create outstanding performance compared to other versions of the GPT?
DP5: It is said that emergent abilities are very interesting as they suggest the untapped potential for LLM, ChatGPT can be persuaded to act like a computer command-line terminal, compiling and executing programs with precision. But as the model gets bigger, certain social biases emerge. It is not easy to know what harmful behaviors are lying dormant. What are the biggest concerns about GPT-4?
DP6: It is said that LLMs have succeeded in generating compelling text in recent years, and their remarkable emergent capacity is due to the coalescence of three things. What are three things?
DP7: It is said that the catastrophic risks that keep the technological elite awake at night are now more imaginable. The capabilities of the largest models outweigh the understanding and control of their makers. As a result, a variety of risks arise. How should we deal with risks?

How generative models could go wrong?

How generative models could go wrong

 Science & technology | Generative AI
How generative models could go wrong?
A big problem is that they are black boxes.
 
DP1: It is said that some researchers worry about the "alignment problem." Like Goethe's "magic broom," this is the danger that AI will single-mindedly pursue the goals set by the user, doing unwanted and harmful things in the process. The most famous example is the philosopher's thought experiment "maximizing paper clips. What is it about?
DP2: It is said that before releasing GPT-4, which runs the latest version of the chatbot, OpenEye is taking several approaches to reduce the risk of accidents and misuse. One is called "reinforcement learning from human feedback" (rlhf) which asks humans for feedback on whether the model's response to a prompt was appropriate. What is the drawback of this approach?
DP3: It is said that another approach, borrowed from war games, is called "red teaming." shall be applied. How does it work?
DP4: It is said that there is the risk that AI models learn patterns by being monitored and learn how to know when someone is trying to trick them.
How can we prevent the risk that AI models learn to manipulate tests?
DP5: It is said that another idea is to use AI to police AI. In this technique, a sub-AI model is asked to evaluate whether the output from the main model adheres to certain "constitutional principles.". What are the biggest concerns about this approach?
DP6: It is said that One of the problems with machine learning models is that they are "black boxes," machine learning models do their own programming, as a result, they are often incomprehensible to humans.
How can we deal with this problem?
DP7: It is said that techniques such as "mechanistic interpretability," progress can be made even with very small models, this involves reverse engineering the AI model to map individual parts of the model to specific patterns in the training data. How does it work? What is the issue with this approach?
DP8: It is said that the lack of progress on interpretability is one reason why the field needs regulation to prevent "extreme scenarios." However, commercial logic often pulls in the opposite direction. How can we deal with this issue?
DP9: It is said that the most extreme risk of AI becoming so smart that it outperforms humans seems to require an "intelligence explosion" in which AI finds ways to make itself smarter. Do you agree with this opinion?
DP10: It is said that we may receive different figures about the probability of an existential catastrophe (fewer than 5,000 humans surviving) caused by AI experts and "super forecasters" (people with a strong track record of prediction and trained to avoid cognitive biases).
Do you believe that well-trained experts can prevent the risks caused by AI biases?
DP11: It is said that more resources should be devoted to AI alignment and governance avoiding disastrous results because Human behavior can be so slow that it prevents effective control of the machine. What is the ideal governance of Generative AI?

How businesses are experimenting with ChatGPT-like services

How businesses are experimenting with ChatGPT-like services

 Business | Schumpeter
How businesses are experimenting with ChatGPT-like services
In time, the approach may yield dividends.
 
DP1: It is said that getting the most out of generative AI may be difficult for companies with clunky old IT systems and scattered data sets. On the other hand, large-scale language models such as ChatGPT are better suited to handling unstructured data than traditional AI. What is the best strategy for companies to use ChatGPT-like services created by generative AI?
DP2: It is said that Bosses may also be discouraged from generative AI by growing concerns about the risks the technology poses to society as it becomes smarter; some worry about the cascade of fraud, misinformation, and computer viruses that AI can create. What kinds of actions the government should take to deal with the above concerns?
DP3: It is said that there is also a concern that the introduction of smart Ai will demoralize staff and cause them to worry about their own futures. So far, however, employees seem to be among the most enthusiastic supporters of the new technology. Do you support the above opinion?

Why EY and its rivals may eventually break up, after all.

Why EY and its rivals may eventually break up, after all

 Business | The too-big four
Why EY and its rivals may eventually break up, after all
The commercial logic for splitting up the big four is only getting stronger
 
DP1: It is said that the argument against turning the four largest companies into eight is not entirely without merit. This is because the commercial logic of division is becoming increasingly compelling.
But the professional services giant, in response to a U.S. branch office's overreaching questions and decided to postpone indefinitely its plan to separate its audit and advisory businesses. Why was this decision made?
DP2: It is said that in the early 2000s, EY, KPMG, and PWC, in response to new conflict-of-interest regulations that prohibited the sale of advice to audit clients, spun off or sold off their consulting divisions. However, the big firms quickly gravitated back to their fast-growing advice practices. Why is that?
DP3: It is said that the interdisciplinary model has also helped PWC and other leading professional services firms adapt to the digital age. This is why some people have difficulty with the idea of spinning off. Do you agree with this opinion?
DP4: the Big 4 shifted more of their business to consulting, and the case for keeping them together is weakening. Rules on auditor independence have gone from inconvenient to awkward. auditing is steadily losing its internal clout. Why is that?
DP5: It is said that recovering from their reckless fall from Everest, ey and its three rivals would think twice before undertaking a similar adventure. But the logic of dissolution would not disappear. Why is that?
DP6: What are the critical points that distinguish successful and unsuccessful scenarios of consolidation and divestiture of a group of companies?

How to explain the puzzle of the world economy

How to explain the puzzle of the world economy

 Finance & economics | The art of interpretation
How to explain the puzzle of the world economy
Welcome to the Mona Lisa effect.
 
DP1: It is said that the post-pandemic economy is like the Mona Lisa. Every time you look at it, you see something different, in short, forecasting is as difficult as it sounds. If so, why are we forecasting the economy?
DP2: It is said that official statisticians are having a hard time making sense of the situation to forecasting the economy. What are the three main causes of this issue?
DP3: It is said that investors and statisticians are adept at understanding the global economy during periods of volatility and inflation. As the impact of the pandemic fades, seasonal adjustments will be distorted. Economists have already successfully overcome the problem of slowing reactions by incorporating alternative data into their forecasts. Do you agree with this opinion?

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1. 2023/04/22(Sat) 10 PM-12 AM_ Japan Time_ Topics
2. 2023/04/23(Sun) 9AM-11AM_ Japan Time_ Topics

①The Human Genome Project transformed biology.
②How the Human Genome Project revolutionized biology.
③How the state could take control of the banking system
④Samsung should be wary of Intel-like complacency.
⑤Can the West win over the rest?
⑥America’s economic outperformance is a marvel to behold

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The Human Genome Project transformed biology.

The Human Genome Project transformed biology

 Leaders | Big science
The Human Genome Project transformed biology.
Yet for genomics to become a part of everyday medicine, hard work is still ahead.
 
DP1: It is said that 20 years ago, the human genome project (HGP) revealed the nearly complete sequence of the approximately 3 billion base pairs of DNA in each human chromosome. How did this project change biology and medicine industry?
DP2: It is said that genetic abnormalities primarily cause Cancer. How can physicians learn what cancer mutations have and what treatments are most effective?
DP3: It is said that People's genetic sequences need to be integrated into their medical records, requiring a data infrastructure, digitized records, and a robust set of security and privacy standards, scientists must also continue to collect more diverse data, not just data from the rich world of patients. Why is that?
DP4: It is said that we have a decent understanding of diseases affected by single genes but how genes interact with each other is still not well understood, also unknown are the interactions between groups of genes and people's environments. How do we deal with this issue?

How the Human Genome Project revolutionized biology.

How the Human Genome Project revolutionised biology

 
Science & Technology | The Human Genome Project
How the Human Genome Project revolutionized biology.
Twenty years on, the field has changed beyond recognition.
 
DP1: It is said that the human genome project (HGP) was an American initiative globalized through the International Human Genome Sequencing Consortium of 20 laboratories (eight of them outside the U.S.). The funds were to be used to elucidate the order of the approximately 3 billion base pairs that make up the DNA of the human genome.  What are the base pairs?
DP2: It is said that it turns out that there is more to functional DNA than just protein-coding genes. What are other functional DNAs?
DP3: It is said that it took time to figure out the sequencing mechanism of genes, in which an (adenine) is always paired with t (thymine) and g (guanine) is always paired with c (cytosine). Like the genome, this project was a difficult one. Why is that?
DP4: At the start of HGP, leaders thought it would take 15 years to complete. However, they believed that the project would not be complete without the efforts of A Scientist, the disruptive innovator of the project. In 1995, He upset the apple cart by creating the first complete sequence of an organism (Haemophilus influenza) using a new method called whole genome shotgun sequencing.　What is about the whole genome shotgun?
DP5: It is said the NIH had initially set out to obtain patents but has now reversed course, the official project put the findings directly into the public domain and made it impossible to patent them. Do you agree with this policy?
DP6: It is said that all DNA fragments that are difficult to sequence, such as telomeres, which cover the ends of chromosomes, and centromeres, which connect the two arms of the chromosome, are ignored because of their many repeats. Why are these fragments important?
DP7: It is said that no one has yet won a Nobel Prize for the Human Genome Project, and probably never will. Why is that?
DP8: It is said that the discovery of these complex mechanisms has allowed us to understand the workings of cells much better than before, and the idea that genetics is a separate discipline has collapsed and become a branch of molecular biology. What are these complex mechanisms about?
DP9: It is said that understanding genetics at the molecular level can also help us understand and treat disease. Why is that?
DP10: It is said that Biobanks are large repositories of data and tissue samples that store people's medical histories and life-related information along with their genomes and are beginning to reveal the subtle effects of genes on health, particularly the interactions between genes and the environment that result in disease. Why did Biobanks become an effective and useful source to deal with the disease?
DP11: It is said that the model of multicenter collaboration pioneered by the International Human Genome Sequencing Consortium has now become the standard method in biology. What is the contribution of this consortium to human beings and concerns?

How the state could take control of the banking system

How the state could take control of the banking system

 Finance & economics | Free exchange
How the state could take control of the banking system
Technology and regulation are making the government’s role in finance explicit.
 
DP1: It is said that despite the dangerous nature of banks, governments tolerate their existence, changes in liquidity and maturity are supposed to allow for more credit and faster economic growth than alternatives under a "narrow bank" system in which deposits are fully backed only by the most secure assets. What does it mean?
DP2: It is said that deposit insurance was established in the United States under the Glass-Steagall Act after the Great Depression, government support would make the system more stable. However, any support program would need to be tweaked to prevent banks from exploiting taxpayers. What kind of regulation is appropriate for banks?
DP3: Even though central bankers have long recognized the dangers of providing too much support, why can they not avoid such risks?
DP4: It is said that expanding the bank's safety net requires rules to ensure that the expanded net is not abused. What kind of rules are required?
DP5: It is said that this tradeoff between the safety of the banking system and the authority of the regulator used to be an uncertain one. Why is that?
DP6: It is said that the bank will function just fine as long as citizens switch their deposits to the central bank's digital currency. Do you agree with this opinion?
DP7: It is said that the distinction between deposit financing underwritten by the state in multiple layers and financing provided directly by the state itself is becoming increasingly difficult to distinguish. A clearer role for the government in the banking system may be the logical endpoint of the path that regulators have taken so far. What does it mean?

Samsung should be wary of Intel-like complacency.

Samsung should be wary of Intel-like complacency

 Business | Schumpeter
Samsung should be wary of Intel-like complacency.
It is too cosy at the top of the memory-chip market.

 DP1: It is said that Samsung’s dominance in the memory chip field has long been unassailable. Why is that?
DP2: It is said that Samsung's goal of becoming number one in the contract production of logic processors by 2030 does not appear to be going well either, for reasons familiar to Intel. Why is that?
DP3: It is said that nobody expects Samsung to abandon its top position in memory, as Intel did with logic. Samsung was the first manufacturer to bet big on advanced manufacturing technology, extreme ultraviolet technology.
What is a good way to deal with the top company dilemma that is common in all industries?

Can the West win over the rest?

Can the West win over the rest?

 Leaders | non-alignment
Can the West win over the rest?
In a more transactional world, the price of influence is going up
 
DP1: It is said that it has become common to describe the world as being bifurcated into a resurgent Western bloc and an alliance with autocratic China and Russia. However, there are limitations to this way of thinking.
Why is that?
DP2: It is said that more salient for the great geopolitical struggle of the 21st century is that at least 4 billion people, or more than half of the world's population, live in more than 100 countries that do not take sides. Why is that?
DP3: It is said that these "non-aligned" countries are collectively growing in importance as the world order becomes more fragmented. Why is that?
DP4: What are two reasons why it would be a mistake to underestimate the role of "non-aligned" countries?
DP5: It is said that Pragmatism also means less faith in institutions such as the UN and the IMF, which see the post-1945 U.S.-led order as disorganized and corrupt. Western appeals to defend the liberal order and human rights are often seen as self-serving, inconsistent, and hypocritical. Do you support this Pragmatism?
DP6: It is said that The U.S. and its allies must resist the temptation to stoop to tactics that would turn them into dictatorial enemies. What is the best strategy to deal with this issue?
DP7: It is said that the strengths of the West are enduring market access, technology, and the free flow of information, but the emerging world order is a far cry from the unipolar U.S. of the 1990s. But in the marketplace of competing for influence, the West can compete. How do they compete?

America’s economic outperformance is a marvel to behold

America’s economic outperformance is a marvel to behold

Briefing | From strength to strength
America’s economic outperformance is a marvel to behold.
But the country could still undercut its own success.
 
DP1: It is said that on a variety of indicators, American dominance remains outstanding. and in comparison, to its richer world peers, its lead is growing ever larger. Why is that?
DP2: It is said that the key words of the strength of the USA are the size of its labor force and its high productivity, increased investment, deep technological innovation, highly skilled workers, a highly educated workforce, the size of the U.S. landmass, access to a variety of geological resources, the deepest and most liquid financial markets in the world, dynamism, mobility. What are the details of that?
DP3: It is said that there are ways for the U.S. to undermine its own success, intense competition, unequal income distribution, poor health care prevalent violence, and the ugly turnaround in American politics self-inflicted policies are listed. What are the details of that?
DP4: It is said that the theory of America's economic decline has spread to a wide range of churches. The right argues that big government has stifled frontier spirit and soaring debt will bring poverty to future generations, the left fears that inequality and corporate power have hollowed out the economy, it is rare for ideologies to coincide, and they lament the death of American manufacturing and the collapse of the middle class. Do you support this idea?
larger economic picture and how superior America is. Do you believe the USA could still undercut its own success?
DP5: It is said that America has neither the wealth nor the wisdom to make people's lives better but chooses not to do so and pays the little economic price for that choice. Do you believe that it is the weakness of America and the cause of losing to keep success?
DP6: It is said many of these potentially self-inflicted policies are rooted in a declinist mindset that does not reflect the facts, at least in economic terms. They diagnose China as rising, immigration as a threat, big business as a bastion of woke power, and free trade as a form of betrayal. Their folly is all the more remarkable because it betrays a lack of awareness of the larger economic picture and how superior America is. Do you believe the USA could still undercut its own success?