Will Former Prime Minister Abe "Become Prime Minister for the Third Time"? Why Abe is the Core of the “Giren boom”

(Japanese original version is posted to Diamond Online on June 29, 2021)

　　　　　　　　　Masato Kamikubo,
　　　　　　　　　Professor of Policy Science, Ritsumeikan University

Abstract
The focus of the current Japanese politics is who is “post-Suga”: Whether or not Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga will be re-elected in the LDP presidential election scheduled for the end of September; Who will be the candidate to threaten him?; And whether or not will former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe become prime minister for the third time?

Will Former Prime Minister Abe, the Core of “Giren”, Topple the Suga Cabinet?
There are two points that are currently attracting attention in the political scene. One is the "Giren boom," which has led to the formation of a series of the "diet members’ caucuses" within the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP).

The other is the disclosure to the bereaved family of the "Akagi File," in which Toshio Akagi, a staff of the Kinki Finance Bureau who committed suicide, described the process of falsification of official documents by the Ministry of Finance over the sale of state-owned land to the Moritomo Gakuen in Osaka City. The central figure in both cases is former Prime Minister Abe.

Abe is now on the member list of several “Girens”. For example, in April 2021, the "Parliamentarians for the Promotion of Modern Nuclear Power Replacement for the Realization of a Decarbonized Society and the Maintenance and Enhancement of National Power" was launched and headed by former Defense Minister Tomomi Inada, who is close to Abe, with Abe serving as its supreme advisor. Also in May, the Parliamentarians for the Promotion of the Semiconductor Strategy was launched by Akira Amari, Chairman of the Party Tax Commission. On June 15, the Parliamentarians for the Promotion of a Free and Open Indo-Pacific was established with Toshihiro Nikai, the party's secretary general, as its chairman. Abe is chief advisor of these groups as well.

On June 11, Fumio Kishida, former chairman of the party’s policy research council, established the Parliamentarians for the Creation of a New Capitalism. At the inaugural meeting, which was attended by 145 lawmakers from all factions of the LDP, the so-called "3As" (Abe, Aso, and Amari) were chosen to serve as chief advisors. Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Finance Aso, who gave a speech at the inaugural meeting, looked around at the audience and said, "I can't see any faces that are seriously studying policy. I see a lot of faces in the political arena," he said, bluntly pointing out the nature of the Giren boom. There is a preconceived notion that “Giren” are meetings to study policy, but no one believes that.

Now, journalists and intellectuals are debating whether Abe, who has become the nucleus of these "Giren", will really move to overthrow the Suga Cabinet in order to become prime minister for the third time. However, I do not think that Abe will make any move on his own unless Suga is forced to resign.

This is based on the fact that the scandals surrounding Abe are still smoldering, such as the "Moritomo Gakuen problem," the "cherry blossom viewing party," and the Kawai couple's election violation case.

The "Akagi File" Thwarts Former Prime Minister Abe: What's the Bottom Line?
With the release of the "Akagi File," the opposition parties are demanding a re-investigation into the involvement of Abe, Suga, and others in the falsification of documents in the Moritomo Gakuen issue, and are preparing to examine the matter in a special session of the Diet.

This is because the "Akagi File" still contains e-mails in which Nobuhisa Sagawa, then director general of the Financial Bureau, is said to have given "direct orders" for the falsification. However, this is clearly different from the Ministry of Finance report of 2018, which vaguely stated Sagawa's involvement.

The government's ruling party has refused to reopen the investigation, but when confronted with such clear evidence, it may eventually be forced to comply by public opinion. But even if they do, the ruling party will probably put all the blame on the Ministry of Finance.

In this series of articles, I have argued that the only way to resolve the endless "Moritomo Gakuen" issue is to make the Ministry of Finance the scapegoat (Article no. 172). This is because we believe that this is the "balance point" that will not cause too much damage to either the ruling party or the opposition parties, and will gain a certain level of acceptance from each party's supporters.

The ruling party has been waiting for the situation to calm down. However, this has not gained the public's understanding. On the other hand, the opposition parties' endless pursuit of former Prime Minister Abe and others is like "proving the devil" by making them prove that they do not exist. This is because there is no evidence that politicians were involved in this issue.

Even in cases where politicians were paid money, it has been difficult to prove whether they are bribe or not. It would be almost impossible to prove a causal relationship between the prime minister's involvement and the money he gave (Article no. 152).

Why Has it Become Harder to Use the “Scapegoat” Method?
There is a growing sense of disgust among the people that this issue has been going on and on. In particular, the opposition parties, which gleefully throw away their policies to pursue allegations whenever a scandal is revealed by the ruling party, have had low approval ratings (Article no. 231). That is why I have argued that both the ruling and opposition parties need to find a way to "scapegoat the Ministry of Finance.

Politicians have often used secretaries, bureaucrats, and others as "scapegoats" to escape suspicion in the political world. The reason why this could not be done in the case of the Moriyu Gakuen issue was because of former Prime Minister Abe's reply to the Diet: "If it is true that I or my wife were involved, I will certainly resign from the prime minister's office and the Diet.

This made both the ruling party and the Ministry of Finance more stubbornly defensive than necessary. The opposition parties could not back down. However, However, both the ruling and opposition parties have no choice but to find a "compromise.

The politicians will have to deny their involvement and punish the Ministry of Finance. The focus, then, will be on whether Prime Minister Kan will protect former Prime Minister Abe with the "Akagi File. The focus, then, will be on whether Prime Minister Suga will protect Abe with the "Akagi File.

Will Suga Protect Former PM Abe?
During the Abe administration, Suga, as Chief Cabinet Secretary, seized tremendous power by controlling all the people, money, and information gathered in the Prime Minister's Office (Article no. 253.p5). This power has been used to protect personal abuse of power by former Prime Minister Abe and his associates. The series of cover-ups, falsifications, and false statements, and the media's lax response to them, have been orchestrated by Chief Cabinet Secretary Suga.

However, Suga gave his "tacit approval" to the prosecutors' efforts to interview Abe's office regarding the "cherry blossom viewing party. Suga seemed to have cut off the former prime minister without restraining either the prosecutors or the media (Article no. 260). In the "Akagi File," if the media intensifies its criticism of the former prime minister and Suga lets it go unchecked, it will become an obstacle to "Abe's restoration of power.

In other words, if former Prime Minister Abe makes a move to "overthrow" the government, Suga will be able to immediately nip in the bud the "restoration" of Abe's power. This means that Suga is in control of Abe's life and death. The former prime minister is not going to move easily. Unless Suga himself resigns, he has no choice but to support Suga.

Moreover, the "Kawai and his wife election violation case" is more dangerous to former Prime Minister Abe than the "Akagi File. Katsuyuki Kawai was sentenced to three years in prison, and Anri Kawai was sentenced to one year and four months in prison, suspended for five years, and had her civil rights suspended for five years. Both resigned from the Diet.

Kawai and his wife left the LDP and lost their political lives. I wonder if they will take to their graves the inside story about the 150 million yen in election expenses that were thrown at them by the LDP headquarters. We don't know what Kawai and his wife will start revealing.

It is said that both Abe and Suga were deeply involved in this matter. Abe is not in a position to engage in a power struggle with Prime Minister Suga.

The Real Reason Why Former Prime Minister Abe is the Core of the Diet
What is More Important Than Returning to the Prime Ministership?
Another thing to consider is whether former Prime Minister Abe wants to return to the prime minister's seat. It is well known that his "long-cherished wish" as a politician is to revise the Constitution and to realise a society based on conservative values.

However, the policies of Abe's administration tended to be more social democratic, such as "reforming the way people work," "promoting women's participation in society," the "Revised Immigration Control Act," which is a de facto immigration policy, "free education," and the construction of an "all-generation social security system" that would provide security for all generations, from children to the elderly.

The reality is that when he took charge of the government, he had to work on the policies that the people wanted rather than the policies that he himself "wanted" to implement. Despite having the longest and most successful administration in history, little was done to revise the Constitution.

In addition, Abe has repeatedly spoken and acted in a conservative manner in his free time, both before assuming power and in the period after he left office. In the past, his radical statements on SNS became a problem, and even today, there are stories that he has strong reservations about former Defense Minister Inada, who is promoting "selective surname separation" and the LGBT bill.

　In order to realise his "long-cherished wish," Abe may think it is better to be in a position where he can speak freely than to return to the constrained position of Prime Minister.

Abe may also sum up the fact that his administration was forced to engage in social democratic policies because conservatives were actually a minority in the LDP.

Above all, there is no viable successor. The conservative candidates for the next LDP president are probably former Defense Minister Inada and party policy chief Hakubun Shimomura, but they lack the capacity to gain broad support within the party.

First of all, there is an urgent need to train his successors. Then, conservatives must become the majority in the party. To achieve this goal, Abe may have been appointed as an advisor to Girens.

Of course, we cannot say that there is no possibility that former Prime Minister Abe will decide to become Prime Minister for the third time. However, it would be pointless to do so unless it is to achieve a real "long-cherished dream.

Even if Abe does not get his third term and whoever becomes the "post-Suga," the conservatives will exert a strong influence within the party to realize his "long-cherished wish. This is Abe’s first and foremost priority.