【未完】株式市場の暴落と底に関する記事の集約 ゆめゆめ早めに動くべからず
20221207時点
https://twitter.com/nickgerli1/status/1600312513559728128
⚠️ Major Yield Curve Inversion right now is suggesting big Recession in 2023.
— Nick Gerli (@nickgerli1) December 7, 2022
Last time Yield Curve was this inverted was 1981. Right before the unemployment rate went to 10%. pic.twitter.com/6D6WcbjE33
https://twitter.com/Masa_Aug2020/status/1600251597489344512
🇺🇸国債YCのフラット化に見られるように投資家は株式リスクより債券のデュレーションリスクを選好しているようだ。本日は複数の大手銀行CEOが23年景気見通しを述べているが、景気後退のレベルこそ異なるが悲観的な見方が大勢だ。パウエルが好むT-Billスプレッドは景気後退を示唆する動きを強めている pic.twitter.com/jEXzGc41vQ
— Masa (@Masa_Aug2020) December 6, 2022
https://twitter.com/nickgerli1/status/1600314873577185280
What about the Housing Market?
— Nick Gerli (@nickgerli1) December 7, 2022
Well, in the Great Recession, Yield Curve Inversion hit in January 2006.
SIX YEARS before Home Prices bottomed in February 2012. pic.twitter.com/VadDIIDT5w
https://twitter.com/charliebilello/status/1600315924254314501
Global PMI Output hit a 29-month low in November, with manufacturing output & service sector business activity falling at the fastest rates since June 2020. Not anywhere near 2008 trough levels, but heading in the wrong direction w/ a high probability of slower growth to come. pic.twitter.com/1FNzjdlSnh
— Charlie Bilello (@charliebilello) December 7, 2022
https://twitter.com/MacroAlf/status/1599460805397078016
The massive easing in financial conditions in 2020-early 2021 led to a hiring spree which lasted until early 2022.
— Alf (@MacroAlf) December 4, 2022
The significant tightening in financial conditions in 2022 will likely lead to job losses in 2023.
This time is not different. pic.twitter.com/1gZoaIa1lP
https://twitter.com/markminervini/status/1600140539420033024
Like during previous rallies, volatility has come down, but not yet to levels associated with sustainable uptrends. Looking back at the 2003 bottom, it wasn't until the VIX broke out of it's range to the downside before we experienced a new bull market from an effective bottom. pic.twitter.com/JTsK0U1Lz3
— Mark Minervini (@markminervini) December 6, 2022
以前の上昇時と同様に、ボラティリティは低下しましたが、持続可能な上昇トレンドに関連するレベルにはまだ達していません。2003 年の底を振り返ってみると、VIX がそのレンジから抜け出し、下値に転じて初めて、効果的な底からの新たな強気市場を経験しました。
https://twitter.com/SP500_stock/status/1596469851803226115
米国債10年、3ヶ月の逆イールドがITバブル崩壊時と同水準に！😱 pic.twitter.com/XXdz3QJtIB
— はるかぜ@米国株Youtuber (@SP500_stock) November 26, 2022
https://twitter.com/ISABELNET_SA/status/1594649126700187649
🇺🇸 EPS
— ISABELNET (@ISABELNET_SA) November 21, 2022
Are earnings estimates for 2023 too optimistic?
👉 https://t.co/aDsUtomjx5
h/t @SoberLook @MikaelSarwe #markets #PhillyFed #investing #EPS#earnings #sp500 $spx #spx $spy #stocks #stockmarket #equities pic.twitter.com/YmmT4tcLMx
https://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/1594724036567003137
Personal Savings vs Credit Card Debt pic.twitter.com/vV9qYLqxnZ
— zerohedge (@zerohedge) November 21, 2022
https://twitter.com/AndreasSteno/status/1594385507219169281
-20-25% EPS growth for 2023 looks fair pic.twitter.com/gsSeiLhRQY
— AndreasStenoLarsen (@AndreasSteno) November 20, 2022
https://twitter.com/MacroAlf/status/1599829928999931905
Home sales have never dropped so fast and so hard like in this Fed hiking cycle.
— Alf (@MacroAlf) December 5, 2022
The housing market is effectively frozen, and the illiquidity is popping up in real-estate linked products too (e.g. Blackstone BREIT story). pic.twitter.com/LYuHO1KHxz
https://twitter.com/MacroAlf/status/1597994274238640128
...in the years to come and hence leading to further yield curve inversions
— Alf (@MacroAlf) November 30, 2022
US housing sales are down 40% (!) YoY and the Chicago PMI just printed at levels consistent with a GFC-like recession in 2023 (H/T -> @donnelly_brent), while Powell is still talking about FF at 5%...
5/ pic.twitter.com/GOyyXxF54Y
https://twitter.com/MacroAlf/status/1597994294568112128
All very gentle and orderly.
— Alf (@MacroAlf) November 30, 2022
I disagree.
My macro models are pointing to an environment similar to 2001, with a strong disinflationary recession ahead that is going to materially weaken the labor and the housing market.
How to position for it?
10/ pic.twitter.com/TWSHLnYBzL
https://twitter.com/MacroAlf/status/1597272538698383361
Copper is a bellwether for the global economy: it does well when industrial activity is strong.
— Alf (@MacroAlf) November 28, 2022
Gold is a precious metal which is considered a form of money: it does well when people look for hedges for lower real rates.
The Copper/Gold ratio suggests weaker growth ahead. pic.twitter.com/qpTWDcRrYK
https://twitter.com/motti225/status/1599264475420692480
Weeklyレポート更新しました。
— もってぃ@先物トレーダー (@motti225) December 4, 2022
「円建てでパフォーマンスの良い国は…」
「米雇用統計は本当はマイナス！」
「米国債は悪い情報ばかり…」
「年末年始に暴落して来年末になんとか回復」
「金曜の日経平均」
「MSQは4連敗中でその後…」
宜しくお願いします。https://t.co/BJaJpaZ3r1
20221205時点
https://twitter.com/CheddarFlow/status/1599493748567773184
The 10-year Treasury yield is now 0.8 percentage point below the three-month yield, the biggest gap since December 2000 in what is, according to Campbell Harvey of Duke University, the most reliable indicator of recession pic.twitter.com/7McGvTDOBG
— Cheddar Flow (@CheddarFlow) December 4, 2022
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