The developed nations of the world, not just Japan, should feel a pang of gloom about their folly to date.

Security Vulnerabilities Created by Decarbonization Policies
2023/3/2
The following is from a unique feature on the conversation between Nobukatsu Kanehara, former deputy director general of the National Security Bureau, and Taishi Sugiyama, a senior fellow at the Cannon Institute for Global Studies, which opened the monthly magazine Sound Argument, released yesterday.
It is a must-read not only for the people of Japan but also for people around the world.
The developed nations of the world, not just Japan, should feel a pang of gloom about their folly to date.
Security Vulnerabilities Created by Decarbonization Policies
Kanehara
The recent war in Ukraine reminds us that we should not only look at battles where regular armies engage each other head-on.
Recently, we have begun to talk about "comprehensive national power" and DIME (diplomacy, intelligence, military, and economy) in our national security strategy. Still, looking back on World War II, the failure of supply was a significant factor in the defeat of the Japanese army.
We tend to focus on the military, but the war is lost if we lose on the economy.
The lesson of Ukraine this time is that a country like Russia will naturally carry out such attacks.
It is a big mistake to say that they do not target civilians.
Sugiyama
You are right.
The Russian military has attacked energy infrastructure facilities, but despite this, they seem to have been restored relatively quickly, and power is somehow being supplied.
The other day, the Sankei Shimbun interviewed a Ukrainian power company engineer.
He said that although more than 100 people died in the company alone, he still goes to the site every time the power infrastructure is destroyed and works on restoring it, even if it takes several days, without regard for the risks.
There is no guarantee that something similar will not happen in Japan.
In that case, even if attacked, we must immediately repair the damage and maintain the power grid.
I have heard that Ukraine was fortified initially in many places in preparation for a war between the U.S. and the Soviet Union...
Kanehara
It is a country that has built nuclear shelters.
Sugiyama
It also built electric power infrastructure in anticipation of war.
Let's learn a lesson from this.
Kanehara
Countries around Ukraine have also been greatly affected by the war.
Germany, in particular, has gone to an extreme. It has deepened its dependence on Russia for energy supplies, partly to maintain stable relations with Russia. Still, in the end, when someone like Russian President Vladimir Putin called for war, interdependence was used as a weapon.
I feel sorry for German Chancellor Scholz, but from Russia's point of view, "We can always stop natural gas."
Germany depended on Russia for about half of its gas.
The E.U. also depends on Russia for about 40% of its gas, and the Czech Republic, Hungary, and Slovakia in Eastern Europe were particularly dependent.
If these areas were to have their gas supply cut off, they would be in serious trouble.
We should consider the possibility that such a thing will happen.
Only in the Shinzo Abe administration did the Japanese government begin saying, "Let's work on security as a whole nation.
It is only in the last ten years that the National Security Council (NSC) was established, and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the Ministry of Defense, and the National Police Agency have begun to work together as one body.
As for the Economic Affairs Agency, it was one of the scars left by GHQ, but it was an organization that did not understand the military at all.
The situation has improved considerably in recent years, but in the past, the only thing on their minds was economic warfare, and "the enemy was the United States.
Energy security was left entirely to the Agency for Natural Resources and Energy.
Sugiyama
In the first place, peace idiots spread throughout Japan, and even the industrial world does not use the word "security." As a result, many people talk about a stable energy supply rather than energy security, and there is no concept of contingency.
They are enthusiastic about the best energy mix, strengthening relations with oil-producing countries, and independent resource development. Still, they have never considered contingency planning because of their aversion to military affairs.
Securing the security of sea lanes is an urgent issue
Kanehara
That's right.
The Agency for Natural Resources and Energy is thinking hard about what to do in an emergency in Japan. Still, even after the oil crisis, they have stockpiled oil and gas and have yet to consider what to do if an oil tank is blown up in an emergency.
They still need to take steps to ensure the nation's energy security.
Nuclear energy is directly related to security in ordinary countries. We are following the NPT (Nuclear Non-proliferation Treaty) regime and discussing protecting atomic materials to some extent. Still, there is no relationship between the military and defense aspects.
It is an anomaly in the world.
Sugiyama.
Although oil is stockpiled for 200 days, it is in bare tanks, so it would be easy to carry out a terrorist attack if one wanted to. On the other hand, nuclear power plants have strict anti-terrorism measures and even stop power generation for this purpose. How is that a good balance? It would be pretty difficult to destroy a nuclear power plant if terrorists were to come. They would have to break into the site, demolish the building, and even the containment vessel and auxiliary power equipment inside it. It would be much easier to target oil tanks or LNG tankers at the entrance to Tokyo Bay than to do that.
Kanehara
We have created a world where the entire economy, including energy, is separate from the military.
We are now beginning to connect the two, but our top priority should be energy security.
In the world of energy security, the government is not connected to the international community, and the Energy Agency is working alone.
If there is a war, we will lose.
Even in the case of solar power generation, more cooperation with the ministries and agencies in charge of security is needed.
People are finally starting to talk about how land use is wrong and why there are so many solar power plants in this area.
On Miyakojima Island in Okinawa Prefecture, before the Self-Defense Force station was built, a row of solar panels related to a Chinese company was lined up so tightly that the station's location had to be changed to about 10 km away.
Since METI is now getting into the security discussion by discussing preventing technology leakage, we also have to discuss energy security.
I am sorry for the work we left undone during our time in the office.
The same goes for the security of sea lanes (maritime transportation routes).
It has not moved at all.
Suppose China decides to move on to Japan in the event of a Taiwan contingency. In that case, China is not guaranteed to attack only U.S. military and Self-Defense Forces bases.
War is about hitting the opponent's weakest point, so naturally, they would go after the oil storage tanks.
It's all an exposed blue sky tank.
If they do, six months' oil will be blown up.
Moreover, the East and South China Seas are battlegrounds, so tankers cannot pass through.
Tankers have to make a big turn from the south of the Philippines to the Pacific Ocean.
The Self-Defense Forces can't handle escorts.
If even two or three tankers are sunk by Chinese drones or submarines, there will be a huge uproar.
The Japanese economy can only turn around with 15 200,000-ton tankers coming in a day, so the sinking of two or three could bring Japan down.
If Xi Jinping discovers that Japan will collapse there, he may do it.
When it comes to war, there is no such thing as cowardice.
In the last war, what the U.S. military did first after the attack on Pearl Harbor was to destroy the Japanese merchant fleet.
There is no guarantee that China will not do the same.
The Japanese government has been unable to handle this kind of story.
Sugiyama
It is true that if the sea lanes were stopped, it would be a disaster.
Ukraine is far from Poland but is still connected to Poland by land and can receive supplies.
In the case of Japan, the sea is all around us, so what will happen?
Oil is vulnerable, even though it can be stockpiled for two hundred days.
On the other hand, natural gas can only be stockpiled for two to two weeks.
Coal, too, is currently only minimally stockpiled, and this is only for about a month.
In the case of nuclear power plants, once the fuel is loaded, it is usually replaced after about a year, but if the plant works hard, it can generate power for about three years.
The fuel can be stored for an extended period before loading.
The advantage of nuclear power is that it can continue to supply electricity even if maritime transport is disrupted in an emergency.
Although Europe is connected to Ukraine, Germany's shift in European energy policy has been a disaster.
Before the outbreak of the war, Europe had plenty of coal and other resources to reduce C02 emissions, but they were not to be used, and Germany had also decided not to use nuclear power.
So, the only thing left to rely on was wind power or Russian natural gas.
Wind power, after all, could be more reliable.
So we were importing more natural gas with the intention of interdependence with Russia, and then they weaponized it.
Putin's decision to invade Ukraine was probably based on the calculation that he would not seriously impose economic sanctions, especially on Germany.
As a result, the G7 nations are now united in imposing economic sanctions to prevent imports of resources from Russia. Still, we should not have made Russia think that sanctions were a fool's errand.
In that respect, it was a complete failure.
Europe's decarbonization policy has created a security vulnerability, a crucial lesson.
This article continues.