2024/7/11 投資ネタ

UG
#TEAM upgraded to Overweight from Equalweight at Capital One at 211
DG
Jefferies Downgrades $DRI to Underperform, Lowers PT to $124 from $154
-販促激化でシェア喪失
-低所得者層需要弱いまま
-ｺﾛﾅの恩恵剥落中
#SBUX downgraded to Negative from Mixed view at OTR Global

#KNX downgraded to Peer Perform from Outperform at Wolfe Research
-EPS下方修正リスク
#ANF downgraded to Hold from Buy at Argus
-新商品の迅速な補充/客単価の上昇
--ｻﾌﾟﾗｲﾁｪｰﾝ改善の恩恵
-この恩恵が鈍化していく
-ﾊﾞﾘｭｴｰｼｮﾝた高すぎる

earnings
#PEP stock falls after revenue misses amid weakness in snack foods
〇:Q2EPS/
×:Q2売上/
-ﾏｰｼﾞﾝ拡大/EPS二けた成長
-北米のｽﾅｯｸが軟調
--ﾄﾚｰﾄﾞﾀﾞｳﾝの煽り
-SSS +1.9%(volume -3%/price 5%)
-北米 +1%/LA +7%/王崇 +2.5%/ｱｼﾞｱ +2%
-ﾘｺｰﾙも重石
#DAL stock falls after a profit miss and a downbeat revenue outlook
×:Q2売上・EPS/Q3売上・EPSg
-国内線で販促激化
--6-8月の値引きが顕著
--9月以降にｷｬﾊﾟ縮小
-国際線は+4%
-人件費/ﾒﾝﾃﾝﾅﾝｽﾌｨｰは上昇
-出張需要も増加/ﾌﾟﾚﾐｱﾑｼｰﾄは10%YoY
#CAG slumps after revenue miss, downbeat profit outlook
〇:4QEPS・ﾏｰｼﾞﾝ
×:4Q売上/FY25ｶﾞｲﾀﾞﾝｽ
-SSS -2.4% vs -1.6%e
-COGSｲﾝﾌﾚは3%程度
-ﾚｽﾄﾗﾝ需要が弱い
#AA Alcoa Corp up after upbeat Q2 prelim results - xm

個別株
#AAPL supplier #QTech hit 17-month high in HK after it forecasted up to 500% surge in H1 profit, Apple reportedly raised iPhone 16 shipment target
#AAPL Hot Stocks EU accepts commitments by Apple opening access to 'tap and go' tech on iPhones
#MSTR *MICROSTRATEGY REPORTS 10-FOR-1 STOCK SPLIT
#C $C Regulators fine Citigroup $136 million in setback for CEO Jane Fraser
#UNH #CVS #CI Federal Trade Commission to sue drug middlemen over prices of medications including insulin, source says
#TSLA  PLANS TO DELAY ROBOTAXI UNVEILING TO OCTOBER FROM AUGUST - Bloomberg

TP関連
#AAPL price target raised to $256 from $230 at BofA
-iphoneの買替ｻｲｸﾙに自信
--旧機種が多いのとAI需要
#MSFT further solidified position in latest CIO survey, says Morgan Stanley
-CIOｻｰﾍﾞｲ:IT予算はYoY3.5%増加/ｿﾌﾄｳｪｱ+3.6%YoY
-M365 copilotの採用率もｱｯﾌﾟｻｲﾄﾞ有
#AVGO price target raised to $2,400 from $1,650 at Rosenblatt
-FY26の見通しアップデート
--AI関連のﾈｯﾄﾜｰｸとｿﾌﾄｳｪｱとのｼﾅｼﾞｰ
#AMD price target raised to $205 from $190 at Wells Fargo
-Silo AIの買収を評価
--AIｿﾌﾄｳｪｱ関連の知見強化
#TSM price target raised to $250 from $200 at Susquehanna
-決算を反映
#NFLX Citi cautious on Netflix into earnings with stock up 45% this year
-新規ﾈｯﾄ会員数は予想を小幅に上回るが投資家の期待以下
-広告ﾃｨｱ/ｽﾎﾟｰﾂ戦略/資本還元に興味あり
$BKNG | Barclays Raises PT on Booking Holdings to $4,300 from $3,800, Maintains Overweight Rating
-Q2/FY24の予約ｶﾞｲﾀﾞﾝｽは保守的で上振れ余地あり
-ﾏﾙﾁﾌﾟﾙ拡大余地あり
#COST PT raised by several firms
-ﾌｨｰ引き上げでﾏﾙﾁﾌﾟﾙ拡大余地増加
--会員数の増加/低解約率
-COSTがｼｪｱ拡大可能な環境も変わらず
#LLY price target raised by several firms
-肥満薬市場のTAMを引き上げ
-Zepbound/MounjaroがTrulicityの弱さをオフセット
-Zepbound/Mounjaroに値上げ余地あり
#WYNN price target lowered to $131 from $132 at Deutsche Bank
-堅調な決算見込み
#FTNT price target lowered to $70 from $75 at Barclays
-ﾁｬﾈﾙﾁｪｯｸ:Q2の企業支出は横ばいからやや改善
#MLM #MAS #VMC price target lowered at Citi
-ﾏｸﾛの逆風
--特に住宅関連が弱い
#BBWI #COTY #EL #ULTA price target lowered at Piper Sandler
#ELF #KMB price target raisd at Piper Sandler
-消費意欲は横ばいのはず
--ﾄﾚｰﾄﾞﾀﾞｳﾝや購入頻度の鈍化
-ELFはﾄｯﾌﾟﾋﾟｯｸで引き上げ
#CAVA price target raised to $100 from $90 at Wedbush
-ﾁｬﾈﾙﾁｪｯｸ:SSSはｺﾝｾﾝｻｽ超の成長
-EBITDA/ﾏｰｼﾞﾝの見通しは保守的
#MCD price target lowered to $300 from $312 at Morgan Stanley
-Q2/Q3の売上水戸粗衣を引き下げ
#SCHW price target lowered to $71 from $73 at Morgan Stanley
-EPSは小幅下振れ見込み
-ﾈｯﾄ新規ｱｾｯﾄが重要
#AIG #CB price target raised at JPMorgan
-損保業界のﾓﾒﾝﾀﾑは強い
-保険のﾌﾟﾗｲｼﾝｸﾞ/ﾃﾞｨﾌｪﾝｼﾌﾞ性
vs
-売上成長に対する期待は楽観的
#CZR #LVS #WYNN PT lowered at Jeffries
-ﾍﾞｶﾞｽは強い
-ﾏｶｵ/その他地域は弱い　
#ETN #FAST #ITW TP lowered by Jefferies
-Q1から明確な改善見られず

マクロ・債券
(米国)
ハリウッドもバイデン氏見限る－「ダムが決壊」とクルーニー氏
ペロシ氏、バイデン氏に決断促す－大統領側近は民主上院議員と会合へ
*SOME BIDEN ADVISERS DISCUSS CONVINCING HIM TO STEP ASIDE: NYT
PELOSI REPORTEDLY URGED TO CONVINCE BIDEN TO DROP 2024 BID
US SUPERCORE CPI MOM -0.154%
US CPI YOY ACTUAL 3.0% (FORECAST 3.1%, PREVIOUS 3.3%)
US CONTINUED JOBLESS CLAIMS ACTUAL 1.852M (FORECAST 1.86M, PREVIOUS 1.858M)
JPMORGAN CHANGES FED RATE-CUT CALL TO SEPTEMBER FROM NOVEMBER.
US 30-YEAR BOND AUCTION
BID-TO-COVER RATIO 2.30
HIGH YIELD 4.405% VS 4.383% PRE-SALE WI
(欧州)
GERMAN HICP FINAL YOY ACTUAL 2.5% (FORECAST 2.5%, PREVIOUS 2.5%)
(その他)
韓国中銀、政策金利据え置き－利下げのタイミング見極めへ
40年債が初の３％台乗せ、生保慎重で海外勢も連続売り－日銀会合控え
中国、ＥＵの措置巡り調査－違法な貿易障壁に相当するか判断へ
UK GDP ESTIMATE 3M/3M ACTUAL 0.9% (FORECAST 0.7%, PREVIOUS 0.7%)
UK CONSTRUCTION OUTPUT MOM ACTUAL 1.9% (FORECAST 0.7%, PREVIOUS -1.4%)
UK SERVICES MOM ACTUAL 0.3% (FORECAST 0.2%, PREVIOUS 0.2%)
UK INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION MOM ACTUAL 0.2% (FORECAST 0.3%, PREVIOUS -0.9%)
UK MANUFACTURING PRODUCTION MOM ACTUAL 0.4% (FORECAST 0.4%, PREVIOUS -1.4%)
UK INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION YOY ACTUAL 0.4% (FORECAST 0.6%, PREVIOUS -0.4%)
コモ
世界の石油需要は４－６月に伸び減速、中国で消費が小幅減少－ＩＥＡ