2024/7/29 投資ネタ

UG
#TSLA named new 'Top Pick' in U.S. Autos at Morgan Stanley
-自動車に対する期待とその他資産によるｱｯﾌﾟｻｲﾄﾞ
--短期的にはFSD/ﾛﾎﾞﾀｸｼｰの期待が高すぎる可能性
#MMM Deutsche Bank Upgrades 3M to Buy, Raises PT to $150 from $110
-Brown CEOによるSSS/ｺｽﾄｶｯﾄに改善余地大
-改革ｽﾄｰﾘｰにより長期投資家の買いでﾏﾙﾁﾌﾟﾙ拡大
#NOC upgraded to Buy from Hold at Deutsche Bank at 575
-B21に関する懸念の後退
--B21の収益性を確認(価格/生産性/価格保護条項)
#AKAM Guggenheim Upgrades to Buy, PT $128
-ﾌﾟﾗｯﾄﾌｫｰﾑ化に成功しつつある
--CDNを利用し、ｾｷｭﾘﾃｨ/ｸﾗｳﾄﾞｿﾘｭｰｼｮﾝを提供
#EW upgraded to Peer Perform from Underperform at Wolfe Research
-ﾊﾞﾘｭｴｰｼｮﾝ
#OLN upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at JPMorgan at 55
-塩素/苛性ソーダの価格安定策が実りつつある
-2026にかけてFCF利回りが拡大していく
#GOOG upgraded to Buy from Accumulate at Phillip Securities at 205
-ﾊﾞﾘｭｴｰｼｮﾝ
-ﾃﾞｼﾞﾀﾙ広告の支配的プレーヤーでAIでも先導者

DG
#ARM downgraded to Reduce from Hold at HSBC at 105
-ﾊﾞﾘｭｴｰｼｮﾝ
-ｱﾝﾄﾞﾛｲﾄﾞの不透明感
-AO PCについても期待ほど強くない

#SCHW Piper Sandler Downgrades to Neutral from Overweight and lowers PT to $64 from $80
-経営ﾓﾃﾞﾙ変更に伴う不透明感
#STLA downgraded to Hold from Buy at Deutsche Bank
-EBITﾏｰｼﾞﾝ引下げを反映
#GD downgraded to Hold from Buy at Deutsche Bank at 320
-ﾊﾞﾘｭｴｰｼｮﾝ
--Marine/CombatのEBIT拡大 vs AerospaceのEBITﾘｽｸ
#FTNT downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Guggenheim
-IT支出は弱いまま
#BMY downgraded to Underweight from Equal Weight at Barclays at 41
-ﾊﾞﾘｭｴｰｼｮﾝ
--2Qの上振れもﾚｶﾞｼｰ製品と在庫動向によるもの
-先々の成長に期待も持てない
#ARE downgraded to Neutral from Buy at BofA at 126
-Q2決算を受け、FY25/26のFFO見通し引下げ

earnings
#MCD McDonald's Q2 Earnings: Consumer Spending Shifts Hit Revenue And Operating Margins, Franchise Revenue Remains Flat
×:Q2売上・EPS
-SSS -1% vs 0.4%e
-北米SSS -0.7% vs 0%e
-中国/欧州/低所得者が弱い
--客足減/客単価上昇
-3Q SSSも－ﾄﾚﾝﾄﾞ
-値上げは縮小
#ON
〇:Q2売上・EPS・ﾏｰｼﾞﾝ
-:Q3EPS・ﾏｰｼﾞﾝ
×:Q3売上
#EQR

個別株
BetMGM, jointly owned by #MGM Resorts and Entain, reported a $123M loss for the first half of 2024 and expects similar results in the second half.
#JKS , #DQ , #CSIQ | Wind and solar power will account for over 40% of China’s total installed power capacity by year-end, surpassing coal-fired capacity for the first time, reports the CEC.
#MSFT Microsoft's costs in focus as fears rise over slow payoff from AI - Reuters

TP関連
#AAPL price target raised to $250 from $220 at TD Cowen
-中国のiphone売上も12月には成長回帰
-AIによる買替ｻｲｸﾙは2025に本格化
#AMZN | Citi Expects Strong Q2 for Amazon, Cites Revenue and Margin Potential
-AWSが予想以上に伸びる
--Q4のﾊﾞｯｸﾛｸﾞの恩恵/ﾄﾚｰﾆﾝｸﾞ需要による消費量の増加
--GCPの結果もﾌﾟﾗｲｼﾝｸﾞが悪化していないことを示唆
-ｻｰﾄﾞﾊﾟｰﾃｨﾌｨｰ/広告/投資抑制で営業利益のｱｯﾌﾟｻｲﾄﾞも
#QRVO Citi adds 'positive catalyst watch' on Qorvo into results
#SWKS Citi adds 'positive catalyst watch' on Skyworks into earnings
-iphone 16の増産に伴うｱｯﾌﾟｻｲﾄﾞﾘｽｸ
-iphone新発売の9月に向けて株価は上昇しやすい
#AMD price target lowered to $180 from $235 at Barclays
-MI300で5Bは達成可能
#LUV price target lowered to $28.25 from $29 at Citi
-LCCのRASMが大手ｷｬﾘｱと同等なものになるかは不明
#PLTR Jefferies Raises Price Target on to $28 from $24 with Hold rating, Says 'Priced for Perfection'
-AIｱﾌﾟﾘ/ｲﾝﾌﾗ両面を兼ね備えた資産で売上増
-ﾊﾞﾘｭｴｰｼｮﾝ高くﾐｽは許されない
#GLW price target raised to $55 from $47 at JPMorgan
-2HもAI関連需要が牽引
#HAL price target lowered to $47 from $50 at Jefferies
-Q2売上ﾐｽ/ﾏｰｼﾞﾝは予想以上
--FY24の売上/EBITDA見通し引下げ
#RBLX price target raised to $42 from $35 at Roth MKM
-5/6月にｴﾝｹﾞｰｼﾞﾒﾝﾄ改善

#MMM price target raised by several firms
-新CEOの手腕を評価
--SSS/効率性/資本還元にﾌｫｰｶｽ
-FY24の見通し引き上げを好感
#CL price target raised by several firms
-SSSが予想以上
-ﾎﾞﾘｭｰﾑ増加がﾎﾟｼﾞﾃｨﾌﾞ
#EMN price target raised to $111 from $103 at Barclays
-総じてよい決算
-ﾏｸﾛはﾁｮｯﾋﾟｰ
-ﾒﾀﾉﾘｼｽには問題あり
#LEA price target lowered to $150 from $155 at Barclays
-ｶﾞｲﾀﾞﾝｽｶｯﾄは予想通り
-2024のﾏｰｼﾞﾝ改善は困難
#MHK price target raised by several firms
-ｺｽﾄｶｯﾄで生産性拡大
-ﾎﾞﾘｭｰﾑもﾎﾞﾄﾑｱｳﾄ
--弱いprice/mixも相殺
#OLN price target lowered by several firms
-新CEOによる12月のｲﾝﾍﾞｽﾀｰﾃﾞｰまでは買いにくい
-EPS期待もﾘｾｯﾄ
--2Hは1Hよりも改善しない
#NWL price target raised by several firms
-良好決算
-SSSが全ｾｸﾞﾒﾝﾄ予想以上
#AAL price target lowered to $13.50 from $16.50 at Citi
-EPS改善は当面先
--経営陣が計画に成功している証拠が必要
#TREE price target raised to $65 from $55 at Stephens
-Q2決算で成長に回帰した
#FND price target lowered to $115 from $127 at Baird
-売上/SSSの下振れリスク
#TER price target raised to $140 from $120 at Baird
-2H以降は回復するはず
-FY25ｶﾞｲﾀﾞﾝｽは保守的
#NSC price target raised to $270 from $266 at Benchmark
-生産性の改善
#CNC price target lowered to $95 from $110 at Piper Sandler
-Medicaidの州とのﾚｰﾄ協議がﾎﾟｼﾞﾃｨﾌﾞ

マクロ・債券
(米国)
Morgan Stanley: Sees Limited Support for Broad Cyclical Rotation
DALLAS FED MFG. BUS. INDEX ACTUAL -17.5 (FORECAST -15.5, PREVIOUS -15.10)
Index -17.5 (last -15.1)
New orders -12.8 (-1.3)
Growth Rate of Orders -16.6 (-4.3)
Employment 7.1 (-2.9)
Wages 21.2 (24.3)
Hours Worked -13.8 (-5)
6M General Business Activity 21.6 (12.9)
*US CUTS JULY-SEPT. BORROWING ESTIMATE TO $740B FROM $847B
The NY Fed's measure of inflation persistence (the "multivariate core trend" rate) fell again in June, to 2.1%
(欧州)

(その他)
ヘッジファンドの円ショート急減、キャリー取引巻き戻しと重なる
英中銀利下げ開始も、１日決定発表－緩和サイクル入りの期待けん制か
UK CBI DISTRIBUTIVE TRADES ACTUAL -43 (FORECAST -10, PREVIOUS -24)
コモ
イスラエル、ゴラン高原攻撃への報復検討－全面戦争回避に各国動く