2024/7/22 投資ネタ

UG
#ANF JPMorgan Upgrades Abercrombie & Fitch to Overweight, Raises PT to $194 from $167
-2Q/FY24 EPS見通し引き上げ
-ANF需要堅調
-Hollisterも回復継続
#FI upgraded to Overweight from Equal Weight at Morgan Stanley at 175
-EPSの安定的な成長見込み
--堅確な経営戦略
--決算上振れ期待
-顧客基盤拡大
#IFF upgraded to Buy from Hold at Stifel at 115
-FY24ｶﾞｲﾀﾞﾝｽは保守的/FY24-25の売上・EBITDA見通し引上げ
--Q1にﾎﾞﾘｭｰﾑ改善/MSDでの成長継続
#ALV upgraded to Buy from Hold at Danske Bank at 120

#CHRW upgraded to Buy from Underperform at BofA at 99
-ｽﾎﾟｯﾄﾚｰﾄの悪化によりﾄﾗｯｸのﾌﾞﾛｰｶﾚｯｼﾞﾏｰｼﾞﾝ拡大
-海運のﾌｫﾜｰﾃﾞｨﾝｸﾞのｱｯﾌﾟｻｲﾄﾞ
-ｺｽﾄｶｯﾄ

DG
#CRWD Guggenheim Downgrades to Neutral from Buy
#CRWD downgraded to Neutral from Buy at BTIG
#CRWD downgraded to Sector Perform from Outperform at Scotiabank
-顧客からのﾌｨｰﾄﾞﾊﾞｯｸが予想よりﾈｶﾞﾃｨﾌﾞ
-新規契約を当面望めない
-現顧客からも更改の際に割引を求められる可能性
-ARRの4Qのｶﾞｲﾀﾞﾝｽもﾘｽｸ
-ﾊﾞﾘｭｴｰｼｮﾝも高い
#LEN downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Goldman Sachs at 174
-土地のBSからの切り離しなど時間を要する
-経営戦略は全て織込み済み
#CMA downgraded to Hold from Buy at Truist at 53
-FY25のNII/ﾌｨｰ収入が失望
--預金流出止まらず
#FIS downgraded to Equal Weight from Overweight at Morgan Stanley at 79
-好材料織り込み済み
--銀行関連の成長/ｺｽﾄｶｯﾄ/Worldpayの売却
#EL downgraded to Market Perform from Strong Buy at Raymond James
-FY25の回復期待が剝がれている
--中国/旅行需要の回復鈍い
--北米での競争激化
#ED downgraded to Underweight from Equal Weight at Barclays at 92
-ﾊﾞﾘｭｴｰｼｮﾝが高い
--訴訟の楽観的織込み
--次のCECONY cycleでのｱｯﾌﾟｻｲﾄﾞ期待
#AAL downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at Bernstein at 12
-長期的な投資ｾｵﾘｰを撤回

earnings
#TFC
〇:Q2NII/NIM
-預金安定/ﾛｰﾝ需要弱いまま
-ｸﾚｼﾞｯﾄは想定の範囲内
-債券売却
#VZ Verizon Slides As Q2 Earnings Meet Estimates While Revenue Misses - IBD
〇:FY24EPSg
△:Q2EPS
×:Q2売上・ｲﾝﾀｰﾈｯﾄ加入者数・EBITDA
-ｲﾝﾀｰﾈｯﾄ網の拡大継続
-AIは2Hから利用可能
#CDNS
〇:Q2売上・EPS/FY24売上
×:Q3売上・EPS/FY24ﾏｰｼﾞﾝ・EPS
-AI/HSC/自動運転需要堅調
-2Hの見通しは保守的(特に中国)
#CLF
〇:Q2EBITDA
×:Q2売上・EPS
-需要/pricing共に不調
-ﾏｰｼﾞﾝ悪化
-自動車需要は堅調
-AI関連需要が3倍に
#SAP
〇:Q2EBIT
×:Q2EPS・売上・ｸﾗｳﾄﾞ売上/FY24売上
-AI関連の需要強い(ﾊﾞｯｸﾛｸﾞ↑)
#NXPI
〇:
×:Q2売上・EPS/Q3売上g・EPSg
自動車: $1.73B; DOWN -7% YoY
資本財/IOT: $616M; UP +7% YoY
携帯: $345M; UP +21% YoY
電波ｲﾝﾌﾗ: $438M; DOWN -23% YoY
-在庫増
#ARE
〇:Q2AFFO
×:Q2売上・EPS/FY24AFFO・EPS
#NUE
〇:2Q売上・EPS
-市況は直近対比弱い
-3Qも鉄鋼価格の下落が重石で悪化継続
個別株
#NVDA is reportedly developing a new version of its flagship AI chips, dubbed "B20," specifically for the Chinese market to comply with U.S. export controls.
#TSM TSMC’s mainland Chinese customers are reportedly placing urgent over-subscription orders for HPC due to geopolitical tensions, which could mean an another upbeat TSM Q3.
#MU TrendForce reports the memory industry will hit new revenue highs in 2024 and 2025 due to rising prices and demand.
#TSLA ELON MUSK: TESLA WILL HAVE USEFUL HUMANOID ROBOTS IN LOW PRODUCTION FOR CO INTERNAL USE NEXT YEAR, HOPEFULLY, HIGH PRODUCTION FOR OTHER COS IN 2026
#RYAAY Ryanair shares tumble 15% as budget airline reports 46% fall in quarterly profit, sees lower fares - CNBC
#TTD CMA ACCEPTED COMMITMENTS BY GOOGLE ON THIRD-PARTY COOKIES
Porsche Drops EV Target Over Cooling Demand, China Slowdown

TP関連
#AAPL Wells Fargo Raises Price Target to $275 from $225
-AI/iOS18で買替促進
#NVDA Citi Opens 30-Day Upside Catalyst Watch on NVDA
-Arm-basedのｻｰﾊﾞｰ向けCPU発表期待
-顧客のROI改善の手助け可能
-AI需要の強気なコメント期待
-地政学で割安化、押し目買いのチャンス
#NVDA price target raised to $140 from $120 at Piper Sandler
-B100/B200に対する需要超は継続
-CSPs/企業/政府関係からの需要も強いまま
#NVDA price target raised to $175 from $120 at Loop Capital
-ﾃﾞｰﾀｾﾝﾀｰ向けFY25売上見通し 215-240B vs 145Be
-HPC需要FY25売上見通し 200-225B vs 132Be
#AMZN price target raised by several firms
-ｶｰﾄﾞﾃﾞｰﾀ:北米の売上強い
-広告堅調
-AWSの再加速
#META price target raised to $575 from $565 at Bernstein
-売上成長率がｶﾞｲﾀﾞﾝｽ上限付近
#GOOG Google Search strength continues, says Wedbush
-ｻｰﾍﾞｲ:グーグル検索は強いまま
#MU Citi Initiates Downside 30-Day Catalyst Watch
-SamsungがHBM完成間近
#TXN Rosenblatt Raises Price Target to $250 from $210
-ｱﾅﾛｸﾞ半導体のﾎﾞﾄﾑｱｳﾄからの回復継続
-2026までにフル稼働に戻る
-産業用/自動車向けのｷｬﾊﾟ拡大の恩恵
#CRWD price target lowered by several firms
-ﾏﾙﾁﾌﾟﾙの見直しは不可避
-ｺｽﾄ増と法務ｺｽﾄ引上げ
#PG price target raised to $161 from $157 at Stifel
-Q4SSSは+3%見込み
-中国は弱いまま
-pricingも鈍化
#CL price target raised to $105 from $95 at Stifel
-SSSの成長
--ﾎﾞﾘｭｰﾑ増
-先1年のﾏｰｼﾞﾝ拡大
#ELF price target raised to $161 from $151 at Stifel
-FY25の売上/EBITDAの見通し引上げ
--売上ﾄﾚﾝﾄﾞ改善
#DRI price target lowered to $159 from $163 at Piper Sandler
-CHUY買収を反映
#APTV #BWA #LEA #MGA price target lowered at JPMorgan
-小型自動車の生産減により見通し下方修正
#MCD price target lowered to $265 from $285 at Stifel
-$5ミールで客足は増加
-問題は客足増が増収に繋がるか
#SKX price target raised to $79 from $77 at TD Cowen
-収益性再拡大期待
--在庫調整一巡
--お得な商品の投入
--ﾘｽﾄﾗ一巡
#COP #CVX #HAL #XOM PT lowered by Truist
-ｲﾝﾗｲﾝ見込み
-ガスとOFSの下落は重石の可能性
#SBUX price target lowered to $100 from $120 at BMO Capital
-Q3も米国SSSが伸びない
-米中のﾏｸﾛが重石のまま
#SLG price target raised to $55 from $47 at Truist
-手数料・不随収入は不安定だがアップトレンド

#ALV price target lowered by several firms
-ﾎﾞﾘｭｰﾑ減少
--EUと北米の在庫調整
#DPZ price target lowered by several firms
-北米のSSSの鈍化
-海外部門の成長率鈍化
-下落によりﾊﾞﾘｭｴｰｼｮﾝは改善
#PPG price target lowered to $153 from $162 at KeyBanc
-ﾎﾞﾘｭｰﾑが失望
--自動車OEM向け/欧州の建築向けが弱い
#HAL price target lowered by several firms
-2Hの見通し引下げ
-FY25の北米の回復実現性はmix
#MTB price target raised to $190 from $164 at Piper Sandler
-NII/ﾌｨｰ収益増収
-自社株買い再開
#TRV price target lowered to $207 from $213 at Piper Sandler
-責任準備金の増加が今後の重石に
#SLB price target raised by several firms
-海外でのｱｯﾌﾟｻｲｸﾙをとらえられる
#AXP price target raised to $265 from $260 at Monness Crespi
-EPSﾋﾞｰﾄ/売上ﾐｽ
-ﾏｰｹﾃｨﾝｸﾞ増で成長余地拡大

マクロ・債券
(米国)
Donations for the Democratic Party are already pouring in. Reportedly crossed $50m. - BBG
トランプ氏にリスク、形勢逆転も－ハリス氏なら差別的発言「封印」か
ウォール街の大口献金者が続々と結集、勢いづくハリス氏支持の風
CHICAGO NATIONAL ACTIVITY INDEX ACTUAL 0.05 (FORECAST -0.09, PREVIOUS 0.18)
(欧州)
ＥＣＢ利下げ、観測は見当違いではないが基本でもない－カジミール氏
Germany export model continues to crumble. German exports to countries outside the EU (third countries) were down 2.6% in June MoM, -4.5% YoY. Germany recorded sharpest drop in exports w/Russia (-27.1%), Turkey (-16.4%), China (-9.9%), Mexico (-9.7%) and India (-7.7%).
(その他)
China 5Y Loan Prime Rate 3.85% (est 3.95%, last 3.95%)
China 1Y Loan Prime Rate 3.35% (est 3.45%, last 3.45%)
Taiwan July export orders +3.1% (est +12.3%, last +7%)
来週の日銀会合、弱めの個人消費で追加利上げ判断が複雑化－関係者

コモ
Netanyahu heads to Washington, says Israel will remain key US ally whoever replaces Biden - Reuters
Copper drops to new three-month low on weak demand, surging stockpiles - SA
Rio Tinto: "Chinese copper demand growth slowed moderately into Q2, as rising prices temporarily hit demand...demand has stabilised in developed markets, with a notable decline in US inventories. Globally, exchange inventories have increased but remain low on a historic basis"
"#China’s refined #copper exports surged to a record last month as weak demand in the world’s biggest metals buyer prompted smelters to shift to overseas markets"