2024/7/30 投資ネタ

UG
#ASML Barclays Upgrades Holding to Overweight
-以下要因で20%下落
--中国/AI投資のROI/2025ｶﾞｲﾀﾞﾝｽ懸念
-下落でﾊﾞﾘｭｴｰｼｮﾝ改善し魅力的に
-FY26の成長に妙味有
--工場建設/2nm加速/2025分の後ずれ/AI投資継続
#MMM upgraded to Buy from Hold at Argus
#AFRM upgraded to Buy from Neutral at BofA at 36
-収益性は予想並み
-Q4決算とｶﾞｲﾀﾞﾝｽがｶﾀﾘｽﾄになるとみる
-利下げの恩恵も出てくる
-AAPLとの提携もｻﾎﾟｰﾄ

DG
#ULCC downgraded to Underweight from Neutral at JPMorgan
-sa;es leaseback依存への懸念
--処理不可能な受注を受ける可能性

earnings
#SWK
〇:Q2売上・EPS・在庫/FY24EPS・FCF
×:
-2Hの需要見通しはmix
#MRK
〇:Q2売上・EPS・ﾏｰｼﾞﾝ
×:FY24売上
-ｷｰﾄﾙｰﾀﾞ需要が強いまま
#JBLU
〇:Q2売上・EPS・ASM・客単価
×:Q2搭載率
-不採算路線から撤退
#PFE
〇:Q2売上・EPS
-FY24売上・EPS raised
-ｺﾛﾅ関連の落ち込みを埋める努力継続
--ｺｽﾄｶｯﾄ
--がん治療薬でSeagen買収
#PG
〇:4QEPS・ﾏｰｼﾞﾝ/FY25SSS・EPS
×:4Q売上(-0.1%YoY)
-SSS +2% vs 3.4%e(volume +2%/price +1%)
-FY25は為替と原材料が重石
-Tideなどの値下げで一部はpriceがYoYで－
-化粧品が中国で不調/中東も含め2H25まで回復しないｍ
-EMEAも弱い
#SOFI
〇:Q2売上・EPS・EBITDA/FY24売上・EBITDA
#ADM
〇:FY24EPS
×:Q2売上・EPS
#AMT
〇:2Q売上・AFFO/FY24売上・AFFO
#GLW
〇:Q2売上・EPS/Q3売上・EPS
-AI需要は強いまま
#PYPL
〇:Q2売上・ｺｽﾄ・EPS・ﾕｰｻﾞｰ数/FY24EPS(raised)
×:Q2TPV・
#SYY
〇:Q4EPS・売上・EBITDA
#ECL
〇:Q2EPS
-:ﾏｰｼﾞﾝ/Q3EPS
×:Q2売上
#ITW
〇:Q2EPS/FY24EPS
×:Q2売上
-SSS -0.1% vs. +3% y/y vs +0.78%e

#FSLR
〇:Q2売上・EPS
×:FY24売上・EPS
-関税の不透明感が受注に影響
#CZR
〇:2QEBITDA
×:2Q売上
#SWKS
〇:3Q売上/4Q売上
×:3QEPS
#QRVO
〇:1Q売上・EPS・ﾏｰｼﾞﾝ/2Q売上・EPS
#SBUX
〇:Q3EPS・ﾏｰｼﾞﾝ
×:Q3売上・営業利益
-客単価 +2% vs 1.98%e, 北米 +3% vs +3.24%
-SSS -3% vs -2.7%e
--北米 -2% vs -1.6%e
--中国 -14% vs -10.6%e
#ANET
〇:Q2売上・EPS・ﾏｰｼﾞﾝ/3Q売上・ﾏｰｼﾞﾝ
#PINS
〇:2Q売上・EPS・MAU・客単価
×:3Q売上
#SYK
〇:Q2売上・EPS・ﾏｰｼﾞﾝ/FY24EPS(raised)
-FY24売上見通し上方修正
#LYV
〇:Q2EPS
-:Q2売上
×:Q2ﾁｹｯﾄ販売枚数
-on-site収益が二桁成長
#MDLZ
〇:Q2EPS・ﾏｰｼﾞﾝ
×:Q2売上
-SSS +2.5% vs +3.8%e
--北米 +0.3% vs +1.3%e
#MSFT
〇:Q4売上・営業利益・EPS
×:Q4ｺｽﾄ・Azure
-Azure +29% from 31%, 8ptはAI関連
--6月に欧州で鈍化
--需要に対してﾎﾞﾄﾙﾈｯｸ存在
-Copilot AIのﾕｰｻﾞｰはQoQで倍増
--FY25の営業利益はDG成長見込み
--Q1AZUREは+28-29%成長見込み/2Hに成長加速
-CapexはFY25>FY24

#AMD
〇:2Q売上・EPS/3Q売上
×:3Qﾏｰｼﾞﾝ
Data center $2.83B vs. $1.32B y/y vs $2.75B
Gaming $648M, -59% y/y vs $646.8M
Client $1.49B, +49% y/y vs $1.45B
Embedded $861M, -41% y/y vs $850B
-AI向け投資増
-MI300 1B超え/MSFTからの需要増
--MI350はNVDAと競合可能
-ﾃﾞｰﾀｾﾝﾀｰ向け売上は2024に4.5B見込み

個別株
French Spirit Maker Diageo reported a 1.4% decline in net sales to $20.27B for the year ending June 30, marking its first sales drop since 2020. This was mainly due to weak performances in North America and Latin America, impacted by inventory adjustments and a cautious consumer environment.
Delta Air Lines $DAL is reportedly seeking compensation from Microsoft $MSFT and CrowdStrike $CRWD after a software outage caused massive disruptions.
#AMZN | Amazon is reportedly expanding its one- and two-day delivery capabilities into rural areas across the U.S., challenging the U.S. Postal Service's dominance in these regions.
#TSLA The Hidden Autopilot Data That Reveals Why Teslas Crash - WSJ
#AAPL #GOOGL Apple used Google's chips to train two AI models, research paper shows - Reuters
#MU Announces Volume Production of Ninth-Generation NAND Flash Technology - SI

TP関連
#AMZN price target raised to $224 from $217 at UBS
-投資ｻｲｸﾙに入る時期が近い
#OLN price target lowered to $57 from $75 at Piper Sandler
-ﾁｬﾈﾙﾁｪｯｸ:台風の影響を除いても塩素ｱﾙｶﾘとｴﾎﾟｷｼの回復が遅い
#NFLX should be bought on the recent selloff, says Oppenheimer
-押し目買い推奨
--2026までの収益ﾄﾞﾗｲﾊﾞｰがはっきりしいている
--2Hの加入者増/2025の値上げの恩恵/2026の広告収入のｽｹｰﾙ化
#HCA  price target raised to $365 from $315 at Wells Fargo
-Q2/ｶﾞｲﾀﾞﾝｽ共に予想以上
#FTNT price target lowered to $65 from $68 at Citi
-ﾁｬﾈﾙﾁｪｯｸ:mixed-negative/短中期的な成長パスを描けない
-ﾌｧｲﾔｰｳｫｰﾙとﾊｰﾄﾞｳｪｱの在庫処理に時間を要する可能性
#RCL price target raised to $180 from $160 at Susquehanna
-消費者需要はヘルシーなまま
#C #BAC #WFC #JPM #USB #TFC #BK #GS #PNC price target raised by several firms
-EPSが引当と売上の恩恵で予想以上
-ｺｽﾄｶｯﾄも上昇
-FY24 EPS見通し引上げ

#MCD price target lowered by several firms
-7月のSSSもﾈｶﾞﾃｨﾌﾞのまま
--地政学の重石/ﾚｽﾄﾗﾝ需要の低下が重石
-price-to-earningはﾎﾞﾄﾑｱｳﾄし、回復期待
#FFIV price target raised by several firms
-ｿﾌﾄｳｪｱの売上/ﾏｰｼﾞﾝ拡大
--IT予算制約の中で、明るい見通しを提示
---ﾊｰﾄﾞｳｪｱ需要も予想以上
---AI関連のﾊﾟｲﾌﾟﾗｲﾝ
-先行指標/Bot Managerの重石は懸念
#ON price target raised by several firms
-1Hでﾎﾞﾄﾑｱｳﾄが確認できそうな決算
--新商品へのﾊﾟｲﾌﾟﾗｲﾝと中国の回復期待
--Q4まで回復が期待できる

マクロ・債券
(米国)
#QQQ | UBS Sees Recent Tech Sell-Off as Re-Entry Opportunity
US REDBOOK YOY ACTUAL 4.5% (FORECAST -, PREVIOUS 4.9%)
US HOUSE PRICE INDEX MOM ACTUAL 0% (FORECAST 0.2%, PREVIOUS 0.2%)
US CASESHILLER 20 YOY ACTUAL 6.81% (FORECAST 6.5%, PREVIOUS 7.2%)
US JOLTS JOB OPENINGS ACTUAL 8.184M (FORECAST 8M, PREVIOUS -)
US CB CONSUMER CONFIDENCE ACTUAL 100.3 (FORECAST 99.7, PREVIOUS 100.4)
(欧州)
GERMAN GDP QOQ FLASH ACTUAL -0.1% (FORECAST 0.1%, PREVIOUS 0.2%)
ITALIAN GDP PRELIM QOQ ACTUAL 0.2% (FORECAST 0.2%, PREVIOUS 0.3%)
France +0.3% (est +0.2%, my model +0.1%)
Spain +0.8% (est +0.5%, my model +0.7%)
フランス、予想上回る四半期成長－スペインのインフレ率は今月急低下
GERMAN HICP YOY PRELIM ACTUAL 2.6% (FORECAST 2.5%, PREVIOUS 2.5%)
ドイツのインフレ率、予想外に加速－ＥＣＢの判断難しく
EUROZONE GDP YOY PRELIM FLASH ACTUAL 0.6% (FORECAST 0.5%, PREVIOUS 0.4%)
(その他)
JAPANESE UNEMPLOYMENT RATE ACTUAL 2.5% (FORECAST 2.6%, PREVIOUS 2.6%)
英中銀、ＱＴペース加速を１日に示唆か－９月に1000億ポンド上積みも
コモ
US API CRUDE OIL STOCK CHANGE ACTUAL -4.495M (FORECAST -, PREVIOUS -3.9M)