WISHING"Road To Recovery" 02/12/21第4波に備えよBe Prepared for fourth wave to come









Hospitalization mortality among adults of all ages with COVID was 19% and seasonal influenza 6%, with COVID having a 3.5 times higher risk of death than influenza, a 1.5 times higher intensive care unit utilization, and a 1.5 times longer hospital stay (493).

According to the latest simulation results, the fourth wave will come from the spread of more contagious mutants.

By March to June, most of the mutant strains will be present. Therefore, if there is no effective vaccine at all, even if we continue to maintain a partial lockdown, the fourth wave of the epidemic will inevitably arrive between July and September.

In the case of a 35% increase in the infectivity of the mutant strain, and if the vaccine is more than 90% effective against the mutant strain, the higher the number of daily vaccinations, the later and milder the start of the fourth wave will be. If vaccination proceeds at a fast pace, the fourth wave will disappear. The slower the vaccination rate, the faster and larger the fourth wave will be, even if the vaccine is highly effective. Of course, with a low vaccination rate, especially among the elderly, if the vaccination rate is only 60%, a large fourth wave is inevitable no matter how fast you go.

If the mutant strain is 75% more infectious, the fourth wave will come no matter how hurried the vaccination is, but the more hurried it is, the later it will start, after October, and the smaller it will be.

Vaccine efficacy against mutant strains, vaccine refusal rates, and compliance with masks and social distancing are all highly uncertain and can lead to highly variable predicted outcomes.

On the other hand, we found two results that did not change when we changed all conditions.
Increasing the number of vaccines per day, i.e., the speed of vaccination, reduces the number of infected persons and deaths, and reduces the partial lockdown period.
Starting the partial lockdown at a low number of cases will reduce the number of cases and deaths.

The most important variables that can help save lives lost due to the fourth wave, which has a high probability of recurrence, are rapid vaccination and early implementation of partial lockdown (494).

The most important variables that can help save lives lost to infection due to the 2021 infection epidemic, which has a high probability of recurrence, are rapid vaccination and early partial lockdown implementation (494).




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