WISHING"Road To Recovery" 10/25/21 いつまでマスクしているんですか？How long do you wear a mask?
街の大気中にウイルスが混じっているとでもいうのでしょうか？
10月23日の東京都の新規感染者数は32人、検査数は5585.7件、陽性率は0.57％であり、無症候感染を含めても検査漏れはほとんどない状態です (815)。
人生の中のある一日に起きる出来事は、前日起きた出来事とは無関係な独立した事象です。不確実性に満ちていて、なんらかの事件・出来事は、突然降って沸いたように起きるものです。感染してしまうかどうかという出来事も、1日当たりの確率で評価するべきといえます。
8月10日～22日までの2週間の1日当たり新規陽性者数は4500人。東京都の人口は1,400万人。したがって、東京都における日々の感染確率は、1/3,111でした。
10月23日の新規陽性者数は32人。日々の感染確率は、1/437,500。
これは、宝くじ2等当選確率1/330万よりは高いが、3等当選確率＝1/20万の2分の1以下、1日当たりの交通事故に遭う確率＝1/85,000の5分の1以下です (816)。
人口20万人の町では、1日当たり0.45人。人頭の最小単位は1人なので、切り捨て可能で、0になります。人口20万人の東京都府中市では2週間以上もの期間、新規感染者の発生は0が続いています。仮に、2週間前には感染者が残っていたとしても、ウイルス排泄期間は最大2週間とみなせるので、現時点でウイルスを排泄している感染者はいません。
感染者数のグラフを、サインカーブ（y=a×sinx）またはベルカーブ（y=1/√2πσ×exp(−(x−μ)^2/2σ^2) ）のどちらで近似するにしても、7月から現在までの感染カーブは、実は人の活動度やマスク着用率のいずれにもまったく相関はありません。
ワクチン免疫普及前の感染者数の動きは、30～45日前の人の活動がドライバーとなり、それに遅れて相関しながら変化していました。
しかし、ワクチンによる免疫力が感染抑止力の主役を占めるようになると、その相関性は消失します。8月中旬以降、ターミナル駅滞在人口は、立川駅で−18％前後で横這い、新宿駅で−40%から−30%へ増加中で、いずれも線形で、感染カーブの曲線状の上昇下降変化との相関性はありません。マスク着用率も、ずっとほぼ100％の定常状態で、相関性はさらに低い (817)。
社会全体の行動制限の強度Stringency index（SI）も6月以降横這いで、30日前のSIと感染者数との相関係数は簡単な計算でもR^2＝0.23となり、行動制限と感染カーブとの相関はまったくありえないものとなりました。
感染カーブの急峻さ（尖度）を決める要因となっているものは、おそらくワクチンの展開速度です。感染カーブをベルカーブと仮定すると、式の定数部分はワクチン展開速度に相関し、感染カーブの急峻さを決めるドライバーになっているように見えます。
1日当たりの接種人口増加％で表したワクチン展開速度を計算すると、日本の展開速度は0.46% /日、イスラエルの3回目接種展開速度は 0.53%/日です。この勢いに押さえつけられるように、感染カーブは急激に下降しています。一方、行動制限を全解除したデンマークの直近45日間の展開速度は 0.028％/日に低下していて、感染カーブの裾野が伸びるだけに留まらず、反転してしまっています。
このように、ワクチンキャンペーン展開後に生じている感染者数の減少に寄与する要因は、ワクチンの展開速度であって、人の流れも行動制限もマスクもまったく関係ありません。海外からのウイルス流入がなく、ワクチン免疫を容易に突破できる変異が起こっていない、少なくとも現時点では、マスクを外して自由に動き回ろうが、感染症の行方には何ら影響はないと言えます(818)。
人はバイアスの塊です。そして自分が一番大事です。事前確率を考えてみれば当たるはずのないものが、自分には起こるかもしれないという認知バイアスが働き、目の前で起きている現象を自分に都合良く認識します。自分は宝くじに当たるかもしれない。自分も感染するかもしれない。その結果、人もウイルスもいるはずのない屋外で永遠にマスクを着用し続け、有害でしかないアクリル板をいつまでも撤去できないままになっています。交通事故に遭うより低い感染確率を恐れ続けて、いつまでたっても友人と会わないうちに、この世で二度と会えずに終わってしまいます (819)。
自然をそのまま受け入れ、あいまいなままに眺めて楽しむだけでは、見えない自然現象を見える化することはできません。宇宙もミクロも数値化と論理の共同作業でしか見ることはできません。科学のなかった時代、人類は災いをもたらす見えないものに対峙したとき、神のお告げという極めつけのバイアスに頼るしかありませんでした。しかし、今でも、知名度の高い人の発言やメディア情報というお告げに頼るという致命的なバイアスが働いています。自らの力で見るようにしないかぎり、相変わらず非科学的で意味のないことを永遠に繰り返し続けます。
昔も今も日本では二分法の居場所はありません。村社会に蔓延する空気の同調圧力に従い、思考停止に陥り、根拠に欠けた掛け声や方針に全員で流されてしまうことほど、怖いものはありません。
パンデミックによって正当化されたマスク着用は、対人恐怖症傾向の強い日本では、今後も正当化され続けやすい。日本ではマスク着用義務宣言ががなかったように、解除宣言もまた永遠になされることはないでしょう。
ただし、海外との往来が正常化の段階に入ったら、マスクは、コロナを含めた普通の風邪予防策として、以前と変わらず最小限の有効策であり続けます。
Is it possible that the virus is mixed in the city air?
On October 23, the number of newly infected people in Tokyo was 32, and the number of tests was 5585.7, with a positive rate of 0.57%, which means that even if asymptomatic infections are included, there are almost no missed tests (815).
The events that occur on a given day in our lives are independent events, unrelated to the events that occurred the day before. It is full of uncertainty and some incident or event will happen suddenly and unexpectedly. It can be said that the event of whether you will get infected or not should also be evaluated in terms of the probability per day.
During the two weeks from August 10 to 22, the number of new positive cases per day was 4,500. The population of Tokyo is 14 million. Therefore, the daily probability of infection in Tokyo was 1/3,111.
The number of new positive cases on October 23 was 32. The daily probability of infection was 1/437,500.
This is higher than the odds of winning the second prize in the lottery of 1/3,300,000, but less than one-half of the odds of winning the third prize = 1/200,000, and less than one-fifth of the odds of being in a traffic accident per day = 1/85,000 (816).
In a town with a population of 200,000, the number of people per day is 0.45. Since the smallest unit of per capita is one, it is roundable down to zero. In Fuchu City, Tokyo, with a population of 200,000, the number of new infections has been zero for over two weeks. Even if there were still infected people two weeks ago, the virus excretion period can be regarded as a maximum of two weeks, so there are no infected people excreting the virus at this time.
Regardless of whether the graph of the number of infected people is approximated by a sine curve (y=a×sinx) or a bell curve (y=1/√2πσ×exp(-(x-μ)^2/2σ^2)), the infection curve from July to the present does not actually correlate at all with either the level of human activity or the mask-wearing rate.
Prior to the spread of vaccine immunity, the movement of the number of infected people was driven by human activity 30-45 days, which changed in a lagging and correlated manner.
However, the correlation disappears as immunity from vaccines becomes the mainstay of infection deterrence.
Since mid-August, the number of people staying at terminal stations has leveled off at around -18% at Tachikawa Station and is increasing from -40% to -30% at Shinjuku Station, both of which are linear and do not correlate with the curvilinear rise and fall of the infection curve. The mask-wearing rate has also been steady at almost 100% for a long time, with even lower correlation (817).
The Stringency Index (SI), the intensity of behavioral restrictions in society as a whole, has also been flat since June, and the correlation coefficient between the SI and the number of infected people 30 days ago is R^2 = 0.23 even by simple calculation, making the correlation between behavioral restrictions and the infection curve completely impossible.
The factor that determines the steepness (kurtosis) of the infection curve is probably the deployment speed of the vaccine. Assuming that the infection curve is a bell curve, the constant part of the equation correlates with the vaccine deployment speed, which appears to be the driver of the steepness of the infection curve.
If we calculate the vaccine deployment rate expressed as % increase in the number of people vaccinated per day, the deployment rate in Japan is 0.46% / day and the 3rd dose deployment rate in Israel is 0.53% / day. As if held back by this momentum, the infection curve is rapidly descending. On the other hand, Denmark, which has lifted all behavioral restrictions, has seen its deployment rate drop to 0.028%/day in the last 45 days, indicating that the base of the infection curve has not only grown, but has also inverted.
Thus, the factor contributing to the decrease in the number of infected people that has occurred since the vaccine campaign was rolled out is the speed of the vaccine deployment, and has nothing to do with the flow of people, activity restrictions, or masks. There has been no influx of the virus from abroad, and no mutations have occurred that can easily break through vaccine immunity, and at least at this point in time, taking off the mask and moving around freely has no effect on the course of the infection (818).
People are a mass of bias. And you are the most important. We have a cognitive bias that something that should not happen to us, given the prior probability, might happen to us, and we perceive the phenomena that are happening in front of us in our own way. I might win the lottery. I might get infected. As a result, we are forever wearing masks outdoors, where there are no people or viruses, and we are forever unable to remove the harmful acrylic panels. We continue to fear the probability of infection, which is lower than getting into a car accident, and before long we end up never seeing our friends again in this world (819).
We cannot visualize invisible natural phenomena if we just accept nature as it is and enjoy looking at it in an ambiguous way. The universe and the microscopic universe can only be seen through the joint efforts of quantification and logic. In the absence of science, mankind had no choice but to rely on the extreme bias of divine revelation when confronted with the unseen that brought disaster. But even today, we still have the fatal bias of relying on the omens of high-profile people's statements and media information. As long as we don't try to see for ourselves, we will end up repeating unscientific and meaningless things forever.
There was and still is no place for the dichotomy in Japan. There is nothing more frightening than to follow the sympathetic pressure of the air that pervades the village society, to stop thinking, and to all be carried away by shouts and policies that lack evidence.
The wearing of masks, which was justified by the pandemic, is likely to continue to be justified in Japan, where the tendency toward anthropophobia is strong. Just as there has never been a declaration of mandatory mask-wearing in Japan, it is unlikely that there will ever be a declaration of its lifting.
However, once we reach the stage where overseas traffic has normalized, masks will continue to be as minimally effective as before as a preventive measure against the common cold, including corona.
(815)
(816)
(817)
(818)
(819)
この記事が気に入ったらサポートをしてみませんか？