COVID-19 updates 11/04/20(1)今後の感染動向は人間活動しだいHuman activity will determine future infection trends




Whether it was hot or cold outside, COVID transmission was found to be dependent on human behavior. At the laboratory level, weather conditions are factors that influence infectivity, but the importance of weather as a factor in predicting greater movement of the transmission situation was 2.6% < 3%.
The determinants of infection dynamics were, in order, human mobility 34%, homestay time 26%, population size 23%, and urban density 13% relative importance. In other words, the factors that determine the transmission dynamics are "how many people travel and how often and how far they travel, or conversely, whether they stay at home" and "how many people are gathered together".

Trend direction formulaⓅ
"Power of infection spread = Infectivity of the virus x the number of new infections" = "Infection deterrence = Social isolation + Immunity"
It has been pointed out that the "infectivity of the virus” on the left side may increase in cold weather [Oct. 17]. However, since there is no genomic information indicating a weakening of the virus, it seems safe to assume that the "Power of infection spread" on the left side will remain the same even after winter. On the other hand, since there is no sign of a change in "Immunity" on the right side, it seems safe to assume that future predictions will be determined simply by changes in "Social isolation". One less parameter for prediction.
Since masks are believed to deter the transmission of infection by 40% [Oct. 14], they are likely to work in the direction of counteracting the effects of human mobility and population density. The results of this analysis can be read as if the masks were keeping the spread of the infection under control all the time (362).

Apparently, the masks are always putting the brakes on, but as more and more people move and congregate now, the epidemic will still go up once the power of the masks to contain it is exceeded. Since the direction of socio-economic activity never changes, the answer is also self-evidently where the mask threshold is.


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