Monday Meditation

Current pt: 770 / 2800pt

Game 1: 2nd (+45)

Music: The Best Shoegaze/Dream Pop Songs From Japan - Vol. 1 (Kigi no Kage)

Soundtrack was pretty chill, didn't notice any major effects on my play.

Mental: Mental state was pretty strong overall, didn't crack despite interruptions and stayed focused for most of the game. Did slip a bit in South round once I got pinged on Slack for work related issues.

East 1-0

Pretty interesting decision right off the bat. A lot of things going on here; even with the 4p pon, 47p looks like a decently good wait (est. 2~3 wall), especially 7p as we see 3 5p and simocha does not look like they are using either of 47p. Toimen also does not look like they are using 7p, unless they either have a 789p shape, or have a toitsu of 7p in hand. 

Unfortunately, toimen looks like they're going for toitoi / honiitsu, and I don't see any dora on the board outside of the aka 5p. Toimen's first drop was also 7s, which could easily have been a dora dora confirm. Paying into a potential mangan + losing my riichi stick would be the worst way to start off this game.

Add the fact that 47p is likely to drop from other people's hands, I think opting to stay dama is the correct play. If I do end up drawing the 8s dora, or one of the two aka tiles, I can hit the riichi button for a potential dealer mangan.

Things I missed: 

How good 47p looks (didn't pay attention to simocha's cuts). Was not aware that toimen was tenpai, even though they dropped aka 5p + tsumogiri a bunch of usable tiles. Did not take into consideration that 3 7s were visible.

East 1-1

Good that I didn't chi 2s since 3s looks pretty dangerous. Good recognition that 8s is 100% safe for all three players, because I can see 4 9s and 5s is in both kamicha and simocha's discard pile. 

6p is actually relatively safe, since 3p passed for toimen, and I see all four 8p. However, it's still shonpai and there's a kan on the field, so better safe than sorry.

Things I missed: 

All four 8p are visible, which makes 6p a lot safer / potentially worth pushing. All three aka dora are missing. Toimen 3p -> 3p was a toitsu cut. Kamicha 4m is most likely a fold.

East 4-2

Lost focus after kamicha started winning some big hands and decided to riichi here waiting on the ryanmen here instead of staying dama for the 6p/East shanpon wait. 

Some Maffs: At 10th turn there's about a ~11% chance that the East tile is mochi-mochi given that I don't see any on the field. If we assume that, if the East isn't mochi-mochi than it's in the wall, and that everyone will drop the East if they draw it, my win rate going to ryuukyoku on just the East is:

P(not mochi mochi) * P(at least 1 East in Wall) = 0.89 * (1 - 13/45 * 12/44) ~= 82%. 

This is a little simplified, but add in the 6p and it's safe to say that the agari rate is > 75%.

Meanwhile, the chance of a tsumo 9th turn with 2 of the 47p in the wall is roughly 35%. Even if there are 3 47p in the wall, it would still only be a 50-50.

Considering that a 6400 point ron basically secures me 2nd place, and I can still tsumo a mangan, there is really no excuse to take the ryanmen here.

Things I missed: How bad the 47p looks in the wall (est. 1~2). How high my dama agari rate actually is.

Got a 4th in Game 2 with a bunch of stuff that I want to reflect on, but I don't have enough time to do so right now. Biggest takeaway from that game was that I should confirm where the 4th tile of one chance most likely is before playing it. Also need to learn the percentages for dora tanki.

pt after session: 680 / 2800pt (-90pt)