英語のPrivate Discordで書いていることを掲載してみようと思います。

I dont know if this can be a good reference, but I thought maybe it's good idea especially for someone new to introduce what I'm doing while I'm rolling on a floor in weekend. I am pretty sure that people have different routine, and many of the great members here have very strong edge in doing fundamental analysis, so this method that I'm introducing is not needed for those people. Just to show my background, I am a guy who slept all the history and math class during my school time, so I'm really bad at reading numbers and I dont know a bit of history. Nothing. So, I do try to read 10-K and etc, but I have this difficulty capturing the condition of business/ company by figuring out by calculation or numbers. That's why I came up this methodology that I can stick to consistantly and routinely to roughly capture the company's business condition if they're doing good or so so or doing bad etc, and it actually helps me how the whole market is doing, where the money is most likely heading to and etc also. The key point is the earning results and earning calls. So, it's like easy way, fast food way of doing fundamental analysis using earning result and earning calls. So, here I explain.

Earnings Whispers Top News for Saturday, April 15, 2023

So, in weekends, while I'm rolling myself on the floor, I look at cheap windows laptop computer in my hand and reading this Earnings Whispers page. This pages shows the recent earning results from the new one to old ones. They only show the recent earning results, so I check also daily basis but usually I'm too tired after work, so I am not doing much in week days.

The good thing about this page is that they have the
1. EPS result vs consensus,
2. Revenue result vs consensus,
3. Guidance vs previous guidance in simpilest numbers.

Im just looking over or skimming through or staring blanky each ones. I'm often skipping some names that I dont know, but when my mind works better, I'm reading one by one.

To determine, what makes the earning result the "Good" earning results are as follows:

1. EPS (earnings per share) exceeds consensus forecasts (analyst forecasts)
2. Revenue exceed the consensus forecast and surpass the previous year's sales
3. If there is guidance (company's forecast for the next period onwards), exceed the consensus forecast 4. Other good news (or no bad news)

So, I'm simply compareing result vs consensus mostly by looking at it blankly.

And I get interested usually when I find some company which is having relatively having larger number in result compared to the consensus for all elements namely, EPS, Revenue and Guidalnce. By the way, if the company miss any of these conditions against consensus, it's not a good earning. It's a bad earning in my mind. I consider the earning was good only if the compnay beat all the four conditions that I listed above. (Im pretty sure that there are many ways of looking at this, but I just like the simplicity, so it's just my way of understanding it)

For example, I was just doing this now, and I found this company.

And, I go. wow. They're beating by relatively wide margin. What do they do?

Then, I go to their IR website by googling "TGLS IR", and I check the presentation and I try to listen to the earning call.

https://investors.tecnoglass.com/overview/default.aspx

And I find that wow, this company is having alots of lots of orders. So, they're manufacturer of window glass products (if I understand it correctly), and they're receving tons of orders. The CEO person says he never sleep. haha...

Then, I surely check the Jimmy's DCF calculator and check the fair value.

When I listen to the earning calls, I usually use this website Quatr (https://quartr.com/companies). I simply enter the ticker that I am interested in, and try to listen to the earning call.
The thing is that English is a second language for me, and usually there are tons of industry specific words and many difficult financial terminology used in the calls, so I... I actually do not often understand it fully.

What's cool about this Quatr app is that I can just skip right over to the Q&A section immediately, and listen to the Q&A section only. I cannot tolerate listening to full call usually because I will go into napping mode very easily, so what I'm usually doing is that I immediately skip over to the Q&A section and listen just first two or three Q&A section because these are usually the most important points -what the analysts most interested to hear from managements. And I am usually listening in the background while I'm doing something else like reading IR presentation page or reading the Earnings Whispers result page to next ones or looking at charts etc. And mostly what I'm doing with my ears is to listening if I hear management and analysts are happy about the result or if analysts are questionning something or if there are some dis-satisfaction or un-happiness or dissapointment or etc. I want to touch on the emotion by hearing the exchange between the managements and analysts. By doing this, I can understand if the management and analysts are all happy about the result, and have a good prospective feeling about the future business or if they have some kind of un-happiness, and there's some practical trouble and etc.

I just wanted to show how I'm finding a potential names that I enter trade or start position for my trading/ investing in concrete basis. Especially for people new to this, the full scale fundamental analysis may be overwhelming. Please believe me, I used to try to practice it alot. But about the half way through, I realized that my brain is not very much well built for the full scale fundamental analysis. Of course, I infrequently try to do that, but honestly not much progress, so currently... especially when my day job is getting busier, I'm using this kind of easier method to do the anlaysis. By doing it routinly, it can actually help me from the micro level that what company/ business/ sector is doing fine and where the money may flow into more likely.

David Ryan actually explains the importance of finding businesses which have good earning results that can boost the stock price also.

My methodology may not be maybe suited for great value investors here who have established own routine / methodology that fits each investors the best and comfortable. I have no intention to argue or compete with any methodology out there. I greatly admire strongly fundamentally edged value investors here. I just thought there may be people who are especially new to investing and may be having some difficulty doing edgy analysis. To me, to get to the level of great value investors here, I mean fundamental analysis level, probably, it will take me another 10-15 years to reach that level. So, I just thought maybe it can be a good idea introducing my methodology for someone who are new or maybe seeking some easier way to go about the rough and easy fundamental analysis, and that's all. hahaha...