![見出し画像](https://assets.st-note.com/production/uploads/images/144098926/rectangle_large_type_2_3237f916e9424894d2ee5e7e6661e290.jpeg?width=1200)
Market: TE関係(仮)
随時更新・修正
2024年度のTEフランチャイズタグ価格は$12.693Mで全11カテゴリのうち、下から数えて3番目で非プレミアムポジションといえそう。
資料1によれば、2023年6月時点でのTEのAPY上位10位は$10.7Mから$17Mのレンジ、資料2によれば、この時点(2011-23年)のポジションAPY成長率はサラリーキャップ成長率86.75%に対し、TEは130%。※現行キャップ制度の大枠が施行された2011から起算していると思われる。資料3によれば、2014-23のAPY上位5位の成長率においてサラリーキャップ成長率92.0%に対しTEは96.9%、非プレミアムポジションではあるものの、概ね伸びているポジション
資料4によれば2011から2019にかけて指名された1巡TEは8名、平均順位19.4位でうち、2023年3月時点で87.5%がオプション行使、資料5-7と関連付けてみると、2011以降、TEオプション行使率は大きく改善したことになりそう。
資料9-、短距離のスピード、衝突回避に優れた選手がレシービングで生産性が高そう
参考資料
資料1: TexansCap(@TexansCap)の投稿より引用
NFL Player Contract Value (APY) spread by position
— TexansCap (@TexansCap) June 12, 2023
Offensehttps://t.co/lIkc3C4ODW pic.twitter.com/0b7cEpzntJ
資料2: TexansCap(@TexansCap)の投稿より引用
Oddly enough I was working on this last night. pic.twitter.com/d8fRNx7cIF
— TexansCap (@TexansCap) June 22, 2023
資料3: Jason_OTC(@Jason_OTC)の投稿より引用
Here is the growth in the average of the top five at each position on offense from 2014 to 2023. Definitely outpacing the cap on offense with some explosive growth at right tackle and QB. RB and C were the two positions suffering pic.twitter.com/gcIh6P19yf
— Jason_OTC (@Jason_OTC) March 8, 2024
資料4: 2011-2019ドラフトクラスのポジション別オプション行使状況
出所: SumerSports @SumerSports の投稿より引用
How often the 5th year option has been exercised at each position for all first round picks from 2011 to 2019 pic.twitter.com/6gWiYfwulJ
— SumerSports (@SumerSports) March 29, 2023
資料5: 2011年以降の1巡指名TEの2024年時点のステイタス
出所: Jason_OTC(@Jason_OTC)の投稿より引用
1st round tight ends rookie outcomes since 2011 pic.twitter.com/CzzMlGAaCh
— Jason_OTC (@Jason_OTC) February 26, 2024
資料6: ヒット率
出所: Adam Schefter(@AdamSchefter)の投稿より引用
ESPN content producer @PaulHembo calculated the percentage of 1st-round picks that “hit” or “miss,” based upon whether that player signed a second contract with the team that drafted them.
— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) April 24, 2024
The data encompasses the 20 drafts spanning 2000-2019. Here are the positional hit rates: pic.twitter.com/mSannLz6OC
資料7:
出所: Jason_OTC(@Jason_OTC)の投稿より引用
1st round tight ends rookie outcomes since 2011 pic.twitter.com/CzzMlGAaCh
— Jason_OTC (@Jason_OTC) February 26, 2024
資料8:
出所: Jason_OTC(@Jason_OTC)の投稿より引用
For comparison here are the outcomes of the 2nd round picks https://t.co/cEFUKq9WT7 pic.twitter.com/AMFCrXRJJp
— Jason_OTC (@Jason_OTC) February 26, 2024
資料9: TEの40ヤード走と生産性の関係
出所: Tej Seth(@tejfbanalytics)の投稿より引用
draft fast tight ends https://t.co/NuLtqTSST3 pic.twitter.com/jRvdDIzKon
— Tej Seth (@tejfbanalytics) April 8, 2024
資料10: 2008年から2023年にドラフトされたTEの40ヤード走、10ヤードスプリットのパーセンタイル比較
出所: Kevin Cole(@KevinCole___)の投稿より引用
The analysis focus on what I've found as the two key metrics to find successful NFL tight ends: short-area speed and tackle avoidance.
— Kevin Cole (@KevinCole___) April 8, 2024
Tight end with those traits don't always hit, but those without them almost never do pic.twitter.com/ssCMKjykQ9
資料11: Kevin Cole(@KevinCole___)の投稿より引用
How does the 2024 tight end class stack up in the metrics that matter: short-area speed & tackle avoidance
— Kevin Cole (@KevinCole___) April 8, 2024
Handful of intriguing prospects, including riser Ben Sinnott, Jaheim Bell & Tanner McLachlan.
*No sprint times for Brock Bowers but he was excellent in tackle avoidance pic.twitter.com/3jFddHfFGn
資料12: Kevin Cole(@KevinCole___)の投稿より引用
資料13: TEの40ヤード走と生産性の関係
出所: Tej Seth(@tejfbanalytics)の投稿より引用
why brock bowers looking so skinny isn't worrisome: tight ends drafted since 2016 that have weighed at the combine have been fine when they've been lighter! https://t.co/0i5VUkgpSH pic.twitter.com/BYyPRzqqoD
— Tej Seth (@tejfbanalytics) February 19, 2024
tight end is the position that has the most to gain/lose from the NFL combine. looking at the RAS of the leaders in receiving yards from last season:
— Tej Seth (@tejfbanalytics) February 19, 2024
george kittle: 9.49
travis kelce: 9.27
evan engram: 9.07
tj hockenson: 9.18
sam laporta: 9.02
david njoku: 9.32
資料14: 巡指名TEのYAC比較※学生時と思われる
出所: Austin Gayle(@austingayle_)
Brock Bowers' YAC numbers are stupid pic.twitter.com/vcIswFQTtr
— Austin Gayle (@austingayle_) February 22, 2024
資料13:
出所: Austin Gayle(@austingayle_)
Career YAC per reception numbers without screens (via PFF) pic.twitter.com/uV8f3uCPAq
— Austin Gayle (@austingayle_) February 22, 2024
資料15: 2015年から2023年までのTEプロスペクトにおける距離別ターゲット分布
出所: Football Insights 📊(@fball_insights)の投稿より引用
Tight End prospects target distribution by depth downfield (since 2015)
— Football Insights 📊 (@fball_insights) February 23, 2024
Brock Bowers: 31% of targets behind the line of scrimmage pic.twitter.com/uhfbrbitIQ
出所: Tej Seth(@tejfbanalytics)の投稿より引用
step 1: draft a fast tight end
— Tej Seth (@tejfbanalytics) February 28, 2024
step 2: ???
step 3: profit
ICYMI: https://t.co/2dnYF3qGS4 pic.twitter.com/mjogBBHA31
出所: Football Insights 📊(@fball_insights)の投稿より引用
Notable TE prospects overall vs slot yards per route run, 2014-2023. Jaheim Bell pops on some of these charts. pic.twitter.com/gtcI6N1LhX
— Football Insights 📊 (@fball_insights) April 7, 2024
出所: Austin Gayle(@austingayle_)
The only TEs picked in the top-50 who signed multi-year contracts with their drafted teams in the last 10 years are Njoku, Goedert, and Kmet.
— Austin Gayle (@austingayle_) April 3, 2024
(Most haven't hit, and the others don't produce until their second contracts.)
((I still would take Brock Bowers at 10th overall.)) pic.twitter.com/bRzOms7z2C
資料: Kevin Cole(@KevinCole___)の投稿より引用
Tight end testing today, and speed definitely matters. This is from one of my favorite @Unexpected_Pts articles last offseason on tight end thresholds to monitor.https://t.co/oqEPt2lZtU pic.twitter.com/vaM6GIWxoC
— Kevin Cole (@KevinCole___) March 1, 2024
資料: Kevin Cole(@KevinCole___)の投稿より引用
Applied my NFL success and draft position combine models to the 2023 WR and TE classes.
— Kevin Cole (@KevinCole___) March 5, 2023
Some *huge* scores this year, especially at TE. Important context though is the combine mattering much more at these positions for the draft than career valuehttps://t.co/RDEZ4qADz4