What measures are required in the era of global boiling? Latest UN Report: "28-42% Emission Reduction Needed by 2030"

By Rei Shiva
　
on the 30th, COP28 (the 28th Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change) begins in Dubai, United Arab Emirates. The session will last for 13 days, and the major themes will be "fossil fuel phase-out," "promotion of renewable energy," and the "Global Goal on Adaptation (GGA)*. The global temperature in July this year was the highest in 120,000 years, causing severe droughts and wildfires in many parts of the world. The severity of the problem has finally become apparent, with UN Secretary-General Guterres stating, "We have entered an era of global boiling," and it will be extremely important to see what kind of agreement is reached at COP28. Prior to this, the UNEP (United Nations Environment Programme) released the "Emissions Gap Report 2023," a report on CO2 and other greenhouse gas emissions and each country's emission reduction targets, analysis of future impacts, and required responses on the 20th of this month. The report explains the reality of global warming countermeasures and their future impact.

In the context of global warming countermeasures, "adaptation" refers to measures to mitigate damage caused by the progression of global warming (e.g., flood countermeasures). The Global Goal on Adaptation (GGA) is to set a global goal for adaptation.

z A 28-42% reduction is needed by 2030.
　The "Emissions Gap Report 2023" states, in brief, that although some progress has been made in reducing global greenhouse gas emissions, current measures are completely inadequate, and that by the end of the century, "global average temperatures will rise 2.5 to 2.9 degrees Celsius" compared to pre-industrial times. This is atrociously worse than the Paris Agreement's goal of keeping the increase in global average temperature well below 2 degrees Celsius and as low as possible to 1.5 degrees Celsius to prevent the adverse effects of catastrophic warming. Even a 2 degree Celsius rise would have a tremendous impact, yet the current NDC (National Greenhouse Gas Emission Reduction Targets under the Paris Agreement) of each country would result in a "2.5 to 2.9 degree Celsius rise," which means that each country would need to significantly revise their NDCs. This means that countries will need to significantly revise their NDC targets. The Emission Gap Report 2023 states that the required GHG emission reductions in 2030 will need to be reduced by 28% to limit emissions to 2 degrees Celsius, and by 42% for a 1.5 degree Celsius rise.

Record heat requires global response, not just developed countries
　This year's heat, as summarized in the Emissions Gap Report 2023, is shocking. September was the hottest month on record, with global average temperatures 1.8°C above pre-industrial levels. Global greenhouse gas emissions were also the largest ever recorded, reaching 57.4 gigatons CO2e* in 2022.

1 gigaton = 1 billion, CO2e = CO2 equivalent.

A massive wildfire in Greece in August this year (Photo: Reuters/Afro)
　According to the Emissions Gap Report 2023, there has been some progress: the latest projection of greenhouse gas emissions in 2030 is up 3% from the 13% increase projected when the Paris Agreement entered into force (2016). If these NDCs are implemented, emissions will be reduced by 5 gigatons of CO2e, but as noted above, this level of reduction is far from sufficient, and further reduction efforts are needed.

　The Emissions Gap Report 2023 states that "all countries need to accelerate the transformation of low-carbon development across their economies," but it also states that what is particularly important are the developed countries (i.e., high-income countries) and the high-emitting countries. More ambitious and immediate action is needed to provide financial and technical support to developing countries. The report mentions, though not by name, that low- and middle-income countries already account for more than two-thirds of global greenhouse gas emissions, and it will be ruthlessly important for these countries, especially China and India, which are by far the largest emitters, to decarbonize.

0Decarbonizing fossil fuels is absolutely necessary and has benefits.
　The key to decarbonization is also the elimination of fossil fuels. According to the Emissions Gap Report 2023, the total amount of coal, oil, and gas mined during the lifetime of producing and planned mines and oil and gas fields will exceed 3.5 times the limit available to limit warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius, which is almost all of the limit available at 2 degrees. In other words, all planned mines, oil fields, and gas fields should be cancelled, and those currently in production should be drastically scaled back and switched to renewable energy sources.

Taro Aso visits the Sakhalin 2 oil and gas development project in Russia in 2009 (Photo: Reuters/Afro)
　The Emissions Gap Report 2023 emphasizes that "low- and middle-income countries face economic and institutional challenges in the transition to low-carbon development, but they can also seize opportunities. The report states that "the energy transition in low- and middle-income countries will provide universal access to energy, help lift millions of people out of poverty and expand industry," and "make renewable energy cheaper and ensure environmentally friendly jobs and clean air." Indeed, air pollution in urban areas of China and India is extremely severe and a health hazard. In addition, in areas where power transmission and distribution grids have not been developed, such as the poorest countries in Africa, it is probably more efficient and less expensive to use locally distributed electricity from renewable energy sources than to build a power transmission and distribution grid now. To help these low- and middle-income countries make the transition to low-carbon and decarbonized societies, policy vision and financial and technical support are needed, and COP28 should ensure that international support is provided, the Emissions Gap Report 2023 urges.

zAll manner of measures must be taken.
　In addition to emission reductions, the Emission Gap Report 2023 calls for the use and promotion of carbon dioxide removal (CDR), which involves the collection and removal of carbon dioxide from the air. In addition to conventional methods such as tree-planting, the CDR process is also required to reduce CO In addition to conventional methods such as afforestation, CDR through engineering processes such as CO2 removal equipment may become more concrete in the future.

There are various types of CDR Source: METI
　In any case, depending on the degree of progression of global warming, it is almost certain to have serious adverse effects on human society and the Earth's ecosystem as a whole, so it will be necessary to work more aggressively than ever before to make it a top priority issue.

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