EVが増えるメリット２つ　Affirmative Constructive

どうも、メンディ先生です。

HEnDA主催『第15回全国高校生英語ディベート大会 “Online”』に向けて調査中です。
大会要項はこちら　http://henda.global/seminar/

論題：日本政府は，（ハイブリッド車も含む）化石燃料車の製造と販売を2035年までに禁止すべきである。
Resolved: That the Japanese Government should ban production and sales of fossil-fueled cars, including hybrid cars, by 2035.

県大会が終わりました。
大会用の原稿をせっかくなので披露させていただきます。
エビデンスは誤訳を避けるため、原文で掲載いたします。
練習用原稿としてお役に立てれば幸いです。

もちろん疑問、アタック歓迎です。コメント欄にお願いします。Defense編に間に合えばそれも含めてDefenseしようと思います。（間に合わなければ2020年内はコメント欄でDefenseします。）

AD2はFuture Inherencyの話を入れました。不確定未来の予測なので、ジャッジさんによっては介入で切られていました。プランがない未来＝現状、というのは伝わりづらいかもですね。

AD1: Less Carbon Dioxide

a) Present Situation

1. 15.4% of CO2 emission comes from cars.
According to Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism 2019,
QUOTE) The emissions from all motor vehicles account for 86.2% of the transport sector CO2 emissions
(15.4% of all CO2 emissions in Japan). (UNQUOTE
https://theicct.org/sites/default/files/Overview%20of%20MLIT%20Vehicle%20Environmental%20Policy.pdf

2. CO2 invites climate change. For example, higher sea temperature in Pacific Ocean, stronger wind, more clouds and rainfalls. Actually, 1% of CO2 emissions leads to 9% higher risk of water disasters.
According to Contributing Writer, Vinod Thomas 2020,
Q) The results suggest that if the carbon dioxide level increases by 1 percent, floods and storms would increase by nearly 9 percent. (UQ
https://www.japantimes.co.jp/opinion/2020/01/23/commentary/japan-commentary/rising-emissions-intense-storms-floods-double-13-years/

b) Effect

1. After the plan, EVs will be a good partner with solar power. Actually in the UK, EV battery enhances solar power.
According to The Guardian 2020,
Q) National Grid predicts that by 2050, millions of electric cars will use wind and solar power to charge up within minutes to act as battery packs for when the grid needs more energy. (UQ
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/jul/11/electric-cars-could-form-battery-hubs-to-store-renewable-energy

2. So, a study of lifecycle emissions shows that EVs reduce 60% of CO2 emissions.
According to Current News 2020,
Q) In the UK specifically, in a scenario where the average EU electricity is used to produce the batteries and cars, EVs produce -62% lifecycle emissions in comparison to petrol and diesel emissions. (UQ
https://www.current-news.co.uk/news/ev-emissions-a-third-of-ice-vehicles-t-e-finds-as-it-slams-deliberately-misleading-assessments

3. In total, our plan decreases 9.5% of Japan’s CO2 emissions and 85% of risk of water disasters.

c) Impact

Water disasters are serious for environment and people. Just 1 typhoon killed 77 people.
According to The Mainichi Newspaper 2019,
Q) A total of 77 people died when the typhoon, this year's 19th, hit Japan. (UQ
https://mainichi.jp/english/articles/20191018/p2a/00m/0na/006000c

 
AD2: More employments

a) Present Situation

1. Japanese automakers are too slow to shift into EV market. Actually, they get only 1% share.
According to chief editor, Zachary Shahan 2020
Q) Data from EV Volumes shows that Japan’s EV market share is still sitting below 1% — at 0.7% in the first 5 months of the year. There’s one way to describe this performance: lame. When you consider that people don’t generally have to take very long road trips, the lack of EV adoption is even more bewildering and disappointing. Maybe “bewildering” isn’t the right word, though. The explanation seems to be clear — major Japanese automakers have been slow to grasp the electric transition that is now well underway. (UQ
https://cleantechnica.com/2020/06/28/japan-has-extremely-lame-0-7-ev-market-share/

2. In near future, they will be beaten by new-comers like Sony or Google.
According to Japan Times 2020,
Q) Sony’s advance into the auto business also proves that in the age of electric vehicles anybody can build cars as long as the basic electronic parts and components can be procured. (UQ
https://www.japantimes.co.jp/opinion/2020/01/28/commentary/japan-commentary/sony-developed-electric-vehicle/

3. It leads to automaker’s bankruptcy in near future. Actually, Toyota plans to reduce jobs.
According to Straits Times 2019,
Q) In May, Toyota Motor president Akio Toyoda said it was getting harder for companies to retain lifetime employment. (UQ
https://www.straitstimes.com/business/economy/japans-jobs-for-life-system-being-chipped-away

b) Effect

After plan, EV industry needs more jobs. In the long run, job creation outweighs its reduction.
According to Climate Nexus 2019,
Q) The growth of the electric vehicle industry, and the parallel industries and jobs that it will spur — charging infrastructure engineering, battery manufacturing, software development, machine learning, data science, etc. — could lead to a net increase in jobs if companies position themselves for this emerging industry. (UQ
https://climatenexus.org/climate-issues/energy/ev-opportunity/

c) Impact

EV shift makes better economy in the long run.
According to transport environment 2017,
Q) Driving the shift to electric vehicles would lead to a 1% increase in EU GDP, create up to 2 million additional jobs and reduce emissions from cars and vans of 83% by 2050. (UQ
https://www.transportenvironment.org/sites/te/files/publications/Briefing%20-%20How%20will%20electric%20vehicle%20transition%20impact%20EU%20jobs.pdf